The Fair Grounds kicks off their Road to the Derby Series with a stakes laden card this afternoon. The Gun Runner Stakes is the race that will offer Derby Points to the top-5 finishers, and seeing how there are only five runners entered, everyone is going to get in on the action. Epicenter put this race on the map in 2021 as he used this race to kick start his championship three year old season. I don’t think we’re looking at a future champion today, but we do have an evenly matched field with some horses that do have potential. Post time for this race is scheduled for 3:00 (CT).
Fair Grounds Race Course, 12/21/24, Race 7: The $100K Gun Runner Stakes:
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Built (7-2 ML): Wayne Catalano sends out this son of Hard Spun for his first race against winners and his first try at two turns. He debuted at Ellis going six furlongs where he finished 4th on a day where he ran into East Avenue. That effort proved useful as he came back to beat a solid field at Keeneland, finishing in front of Render Judgment, who he’ll meet once again today. He’s the first foal to run from a Curlin dam who accomplished very little on the track in her three career starts. The pedigree suggests that he’ll handle the 1 1/16 mile distance of this race today. There isn’t a ton of early speed signed on, so he should have the fast track to the early lead, should Corey Lanerie opt to take it. He’s the third price on the morning line in this race, and the pace scenario suits him better than others. He’s a definite maybe for me in this race.
2 – Render Judgment (4-1 ML): I really liked his chances in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill a few weeks ago. On paper, there was a decent amount speed signed on for that race and he was coming off a nice win where he stalked a moderate pace and scored at two turns to break his maiden. He didn’t run particularly well though, however, you could argue that things weren’t really set up in his favor. The pace was on the slower side, with the winner sitting just off the lead before taking command off the far turn. He was wide throughout that contest, breaking from post eight and spending most of both turns in the four path. That being said, I still would have liked to have seen him finish up stronger. He was late to change leads again, and he was moving well in the final 100 yards or so. However, that was definitely a case of too little, too late. He should be able to save more ground today, so I don’t think he’ll have to overcome the ground loss. He’s also getting class relief since there’s no one that is the caliber of First Resort or Jonathan’s Way in this race. I’m not sure the pace scenario is going to be ideal. I see him sitting in 4th or 5th in a compact group for the better part of this race. He is the only horse getting class relief in this spot, while it’s fair to say the other four runners are moving up the class ladder. I’m not likely to play him at odds lower than his morning line figure, but there is clearly upside here.
3 – Magnitude (2-1 ML): The story of this meet in the early stages is the dominance of Jose Ortiz. He’s decided to winter here for the time being, and that decision has clearly paid off. He’s won 28 of 82 starts (34%) in the first month of this meet. He’ll ride this son of Not This Time for the first time today for Steve Asmussen, who has won two of the three editions of this race (Epicenter in 2021, Track Phantom in 2023). He was moving well late in his debut at Churchill in June, getting into 4th after going wide early. He was a clear winner in his next start at Ellis in July. Asmussen brought him back in the Grade 3 Iroquois, where he tried to go with Jonathan’s Way early and fell apart late. While I don’t see either as Derby candidates, Jonathan’s Way and Owen Almighty, who were the top two finishers in that race, are both nice horses that both could be very good at that one turn mile distance. Asmussen brought this colt back at Churchill where he cleared the N1X condition last month. He was fighting apprentice Erik Asmussen when going into the first turn, but he settled nicely. He was engaged by the runner-up but was always going better. Those two runners were well clear of the other three horses in that spot. He finds another five horse field and he has a pace advantage while getting the best jockey on the grounds to pilot him. I see him as the one to beat in this race.
4 – Chris’s Revenge (6-1 ML): The average price of the other four runners in this race at auction was around $361K, which is a stark comparison to this Instagrand colt who cost his connections a mere $20K at the OBS Sale in March. He’s already earned $45K on the track, most of which came from a maiden/optional claiming score at Belmont at the Big A two starts ago. Brittany Russell brought him to Churchill where he finished 4th in a $50K starter allowance race there. He came along for the ride with Lute Warm, who races in the 6th race today as the second choice on the morning line in the Blushing KD Stakes. If he starts in this race, he’s guaranteed to earn a check and at least one Derby Point among this small field. He’ll need to take a big step forward while facing the toughest field he’s seen yet.
5 – Admiral Dennis (9-5 ML): Brad Cox sends out the morning line favorite in this race, who was an impressive maiden winner in his second start. That race came last month at Churchill when going the one turn mile there. He’ll try two turns for the first time and might have to concede some ground loss, depending on how Saez wants to play things in the early stages. He had a rough trip in his debut in September where he finished third. He looked like the horse his connections thought he was last time out. He’s been working well over the local oval, and I don’t see the distance as an obstacle. He’s the first foal to run from the Union Rags mare, Gulf Coast. Her career was shortened due to an injury, but she was very good in four starts, all of which came at one turn. He might have the highest ceiling in this field, but at this point, he is going to need to prove something. He’s clearly a contender, but the value might not be there.
The verdict: 3-2-5
Realistically, the top four horses are live in this spot. At the end of the day, I think Magnitude has the pace advantage and he’s getting a red hot jockey that is making all the right moves here. He has more of a foundation than his four rivals and I think in an evenly matched race, those things matter. I think having the race at the distance will be helpful, especially since his issue last out came on the first turn. He knows what to expect and I think he’ll earn the win here.
Render Judgement is one that I’m not ready to give up on just yet. It was not his day at Churchill, and while I would have liked to have seen a better stretch run from him that day, he had some things working against him. The longer stretch here might work well for him, especially if he’s a little late to change leads once again. I’d like to do a little better than his 4-1 morning line though.
Admiral Dennis will try to give Brad Cox his second win in this race (Jace’s Road in 2022). He was very good last out after a troubled trip in his debut. Brad Cox has been very good in these early Derby prep races over the last few winters. His runners have been on the quiet side so far this season, but all of that can change very quickly with a barn as deep as his. I’m not sure the value is going to be there, but he is going to be tough to leave off the multi-race tickets.
I’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race in this space, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
