The only stop on the Derby Trail in New Mexico is today with the Sunland Park Derby. A field of 9 has been entered for this contest. Stronghold came in from Southern California for Phil D’Amato to take the trophy. He went on to win the Santa Anita Derby in his next start and finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby last year. In 2015 we saw Firing Line win this race before finishing second to American Pharoah in the Derby. The most notable runner perhaps to use this race did not finish in the money. That was Mine That Bird who ran 4th in this race in 2009, but was unable to turn his form around five weeks later to pull off one of the most shocking results in Derby history.
Bob Baffert has won this race three times and sends out the morning line favorite, Getaway Car, for his three year old debut. Post time for this 1 1/16 mile contest is scheduled for 4:17 PM (MT).
Sunland Park, Sunday 2/16/24, Race 9: The $400K Sunland Park Derby
42 Total Derby points (20/10/6/4/2)
1 – Itsmybirthday (20-1 ML): Robertino Diodoro has a pair of Turf Paradise based runners that are crossing state lines today in order to take home the big prize. This Vekoma colt has done nothing wrong in two career starts. He crushed an overmatched field of optional maiden claimers on New Year’s Day, then he followed that up with an easy 4+ length allowance win 15 days later. He’s never raced at two turns, so this will be a class and stamina test for him in this race. The dam’s only other foal to race has done absolutely nothing in five career starts, so there are some concerns there. At the end of the day, I think the top horses in this race are better.
2 – Remember Big Jim (12-1 ML): This Medaglia d’Oro colt figures to be in last place by the time they bend into the first turn. He was second to last in the Riley Allison Derby in his most recent start when he was sent off at 30-1. Elvin Gonzalez had him patiently waiting behind runners while the pacesetters put up a 46:3 first quarter. He was closing well late to get into second place, losing by only a length to Take Charge Tom. This colt has yet to win a race, but he’s being ambitiously campaigned. He finds a field where the majority of runners want to be a part of the early pace. He ran well in his first two turn race and he should get the right setup today. My concern is that on big race days, the surface often becomes very speed friendly, so that is something that is definitely worth keeping an eye out for early in the card today. He is getting better and he’s bred to route on the dirt, so I see him as a horse with some upside in this race.
3 – Smash It (12-1 ML): This Star Guitar gelding makes his 9th career start for Todd Fincher today. He was very sharp at Del mar this summer, running well behind Getaway Car and Citizen Bull before breaking through in September, earning a 91 Beyer Speed Figure for that victory. That was in a 5 ½ furlong race though and as the races have gotten longer, he’s been less effective. He is one of many that could be battling for the lead, but I suspect he’s going to be struggling once they hit the quarter pole. It’s nice to see Florent Geroux riding, but as someone who’ll be playing against this one, I hope that jockey moves drives his price down.
4 – Getaway Car (9-5 ML): After an impressive maiden score at five furlongs in his debut and a convincing score in the Grade 3 Best Pal Stakes in August, he stamped himself as a horse to watch moving forward. After all, as a son of Curlin, one would think he would only get better as the races got longer. However, he never really took that big next step forward in his two year old season. He wasn’t bad in races like the American Pharoah, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and the Los Alamitos Futurity, however, he wasn’t good enough to win those races. He appears to be working well in the mornings at Santa Anita, but I do wonder if Baffert still has him as a lower tier prospect from his barn since he’s racing here instead of the Rebel next weekend at Oaklawn. He’s still getting some serious class relief in a race that is loaded with early speed. Juan Hernandez is in to ride, so I do think he should be taken seriously in this race.
5 – Spenard (20-1 ML): He’s another Turf Paradise shipper that is looking to take advantage of the big purse in this race. He broke his maiden in his third try last month. Two starts ago, he finished 13 lengths behind Itsmybirthday. He broke his maiden on the same card that Itsmybirthday cleared the N2L allowance condition. That was one about ⅗ of a second faster. While I like Itsmybirthday better than some of the other longshots, I’m not treating him as a legitimate contender in this race. He’s been better than this Spun to Run colt up to this point and I don’t see any evidence that will change today. He’s a no for me.
6 – Take Charge Tom (8-1 ML): The best local hope for taking home top honors is this undefeated son of Tom’s d’Etat. He won both races at Turf Paradise before shipping here to score in the Riley Allison Derby. Diodoro brought him back home to Arizona where he had two respectable works in the interim. He did show the ability to stalk the pace when winning on debut, so that is a part of his game that he’ll likely need to be successful in this race. The dam was a useful horse that won some small stakes at Turf Paradise on the dirt and the turf. Her first foal to race won her only career start to date and this colt is 3-3, meaning that as a broodmare, she’s never experienced a loss on the track. He’s proven over this course and if he can be comfortable sitting a little farther off the pace, I think he could be close at the end.
7 – McKinzie Street (4-1 ML): This colt looked promising on debut, winning at Del Mar at the end of July. He ran second in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity at the end of their summer meeting, but he’s been trending in the wrong direction since that race. He’s faded badly in his last two stakes races, both of which came at seven furlongs. His owners transferred him from Tim Yakteen to Justin Evans after a last place finish in the San Vicente. Evans is a high percentage trainer who has worked him three times at Turf Paradise since that race. Those works seem credible, but I’m taking a wait and see approach with this one because I’m not convinced he’s very good, at least right now.
8 – Touchy (7-2 ML): It’s interesting to see Wesley Ward picking this spot for this son of Nyquist to make his first start at two turns since Ward has not started a horse here in the last five years (if at all). He debuted in stakes company when he finished second in the Tremont at Saratoga. He came back to make his second career start in the Saratoga Special where he finished 4th. He broke his maiden with an easy score at Keeneland in October. He was last seen finishing second in the Turfway Preview when going 6 ½ furlongs in his synthetic debut at Turfway. Rosario has been in the saddle for all four starts and he’s making the trip to New Mexico for his 5th career try. The dam has foaled four other starters with 71 starts between them. Only one of those races was a win at two turns, so I’m not sure how far this one wants to go. I wouldn’t be shocked if he moved forward, but I’m looking in other directions.
9 – Caldera (5-1 ML): D. Wayne Lukas sends this $500K son of Liam’s Map here from his Oaklawn base for his fourth career start. He broke through in a big way, leading every step of the way to break his maiden in Arkansas last out. He drew the outside post that day and was sent to the front and never looked back, scoring by 5 ½ lengths. He’s been up against some tough horses in his first few starts, so it wasn’t surprising to see him take that step forward last time. It’s worth noting that he was racing with race day Lasix that day and that’s not an option for him today. When I wrote about him for that last race, I mentioned that I liked his chances, but as a horse owned by MyRacehorse, I thought there was a reasonable chance that he would be overbet. That was the case as he was sent off as the 17-10 favorite that day. While it certainly didn’t matter at the end of the day, when you looked at his form lines compared to others in that race, that price was awful value. I see both the second and third choices on the morning line as being vulnerable in this race, so I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him as the second choice in this race. He’s likely going to have a less than ideal trip and the lack of Lasix makes me hesitate to endorse, especially if he’s sitting there as the second choice in the wagering.
The Verdict: 2-6-4
While I see Getaway Car as the class of this field, I’m a bit suspicious of the shorter priced shippers in this race. The class may prevail and they’ll sweep the trifecta, but I suspect the local horses are going to be tough in this race today. I’m going to take a swing and make the maiden, Remembering Big Jim as the top pick in this race. He came with a powerful, sustained bid in the Riley Allison Futurity. He was quite green in the stretch, and had he been able to keep a straight course, I think he would have won. This will be his second route, so I do see room for improvement. His trainer, Dick Cappellucci has won with 15 of 51 starters (29%) at this meet.
Take Charge Tom pressed Smash It every step of the way in the Riley Allison Derby. They were in a race of their own for the better of the race, and they both were there at the wire. I think Take Charge Tom has more upside than Smash It, especially when going an extra 1/16 of a mile. I’d like to see him relax a little more behind the front-runners before making a move going into the turn. I see him as a horse that could improve in this race as well.
Getaway Car was excellent in his first two starts, but he has been unable to find that magic in his last four starts. Perhaps there was an excuse in both the American Pharoah and the Breeders’ Cup because when Baffert runs multiple horses, his runners aren’t going to adversely affect each other. Perhaps the instructions will be to put him on the lead, and one these big race days at Sunland, that might not be a bad thing. He’ll be a short price, but he’s faced the best horses of his generation in the past, and this is not that kind of field.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
