The final trip to Louisiana on the Derby Trail is the signature race of the Fair Grounds Meet, the Twinspires.com Louisiana. There’s 10 runners in this race where the favorite is 7-2 and the longest price on the board on the morning line is 12-1. This race has produced some quality runners in recent history, but you have to go back to 1996 to find a Kentucky Derby Winner (Grindstone) that also won this race. Post time is scheduled for 5:42 (CT), which is the last race of the day on a tremendous card in New Orleans.
Fair Grounds, Saturday 3/22/25, Race 12: The G2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby
200 Total Derby points (100-50-25-15-10)
1 – John Hancock (7-2 ML): I was a bit surprised when WinStar and Brad Cox opted to run Rapture in the Tampa Bay Derby and ship this colt in from Florida. After all, this son of Constitution was the gate to wire winner of the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs in February, and he certainly looked very comfortable in his two starts over that course. Owen Almighty was the runner in that race, and his effort in the Tampa Bay Derby last week certainly flattered this colt. However, that track was playing very kindly to front end speed and the main contenders in that race were off the pace types. He has the fast track to the early lead once again with his rail draw, but there’s a decent run-up into the first turn at this 1 3/16 mile distance at the Fair Grounds. I think there like likely to be pace pressure applied from Yinzer (#4) and Furio (#8), so I’m not counting on any free passes for him. I think he was a much better fit in the Tampa race, especially with the better horses there making their first starts off the bench. This seemed like a calculated risk to try to get two horses into the Derby for this operation, but if he doesn’t fire his best shot in this race, WinStar might not get either of those runners into the Run for the Roses. Even though both the Sam F. Davis and the Risen Star produced next out winners, I think the Risen Star is going to turn out to be the more productive race. I don’t like this colt as the favorite in this race, and unless he’s closer to 6-1 or better, I’m not interested in trying to play him.
2 – Chunk of Gold (8-1 ML): How you handicap this wide open race is definitely going to be influenced by what you thought of some of the prep races leading up to this spot. The horses coming out of the Risen Star, which has become a serious prep race on the calendar, weren’t given a ton of respect from the morning line oddsmaker. Magnitude drew off with that race and posted a huge Beyer Speed Figure, leaving this colt, along with Built (#6) and Vassimo (#7) well behind. Magnitude was injured shortly thereafter and has been taken off the Triple Crown Trail. The first horse to come back to the races from the Risen Star Stakes was American Promise, who was 5th that day. He shipped to Virginia where he went on to dominate the Virginia Derby, securing his place in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. This colt is 8-1, Built is 4-1, and Vassimo is one of the three longest shots on the board at 12-1. We’ll see if the handicappers see things the same way, but I do think that big figure was legit and I think all three of these runners can come back and run a stronger race here. When this Preservationist colt ran in the Risen Star, he was making his first career start on a traditional dirt course and he was given little respect from the betting public, going off at 43-1. He finished in front of 11 other runners, including the Grade 1 winning East Avenue, however he was no match for Magnitutde on that day. I thought his first two starts at Turfway were respectable and I thought with his pedigree, he was a candidate to move up on the dirt. He’s had three solid drills at Turfway since that start, so I see no reason to think that he can’t run back to his last race, at the very least. I think he’s a player in this race.
3 – Tiztastic (8-1 ML): This is one of two runners that was least seen finishing off the board in the Rebel Stakes at Arkansas last time out. Jose Ortiz came to town to ride him that day, where he was taking some action from the betting public in that 13 horse race. He went off at 5-1, but he never really had an impact on the outcome of that race where they were flying up front in the early stages. Prior to that, he ran on late to be third behind Speed King and Sandman in the Southwest, also at Oaklawn. Asmussen has had this Tiz the Law based here over the winter, so he opts to keep him here as opposed to taking on Grade 1 competition next weekend in the Arkansas Derby. He’s likely a better fit in this race, but he’s only going to be on the bottom half of any vertical exotics I play in this race. While Asmussen was able to get Magnitude to fire a huge race here last time, I’m not sure the same fate awaits him. He’s yet to win a race on the dirt and Ortiz opted to pick up the mount on Built. He’s not for me in this race.
4 – Yinzer (12-1 ML): Asmussen will also be sending out this son of Twirling Candy, who is testing the stakes waters while facing winners for the first time. He ran in maiden races on the Lecomte and Risen Star undercards here, scoring in gate to wire fashion last month. He ran a solid race that day while setting an uncontested pace. I think he’s going to be under pressure from his inside and outside in this race and I fear that he’s going to be the first one to fold in this spot.
5 – Caldera (5-1 ML): After breaking his maiden in his third career start at Oaklawn in January, D. Wayne Lukas sent him to Sunland park in New Mexico where he took on Bob Baffert’s Getaway Car. I didn’t dislike him in that race, but I did think he would be bet down to a price lower than I was comfortable taking. He went off at 4-1 and he ran a tremendous race that day to lose by the slimmest of margins to the Baffert favorite. Rafael Bejarano has had the mount in his last two starts, but he’s chasing the riding title at Oaklawn and he’s committed to ride a horse in the featured race there today. Tyler Gaffalione picks up the mount, and he’s certainly a fine replacement, but with the way this colt has been working in the mornings at Oaklawn, I’m a little surprised that he’s not making the trip. My other concern is that Getaway Car did little to flatter him when he finished a dull 4th in the Virginia Derby last weekend. There’s a lot I do like about this runner though, who could be the second D. Wayne Lukas runner to qualify for this year’s Derby. He definitely has a chance.
6 – Built (4-1 ML): I liked him a decent amount in the Risen Star after closing to just miss in the Lecomte Stakes in January. Those two races could not have been more different. The weather was cold and wet on Lecomte Day and the track seemed to get slower, especially later in the card. Magnitude was 6th in that race, but he looked like a different animal in the Risen Star, drawing clear to win by almost 10 lengths, posting a 108 Beyer Speed Figure. I didn’t love this colt’s effort in that race, and the fact that Catalano is adding blinkers and switching from Luis Saez to Jose Ortiz tells me that he wasn’t thrilled with that race either. He matched his career Beyer top in that race, tying the score he earned when winning with a very easy trip in the Gun Runner Stakes back in December. He’s going to be the only runner this season to dance in all of the dances on this New Orleans Derby Trail. Ortiz has wintered here this season and he’s closing in on 100 wins at the meet. He’s well bred and the 9.5 furlong distance here figures to be within his realm of capability. I’m not sure I love how he’s coming into this race though.
7 – Vassimo (12-1 ML): Todd Pletcher won this race with a lightly raced horse named Kingsbarns two years ago. He was making his third career start in this race. Today, he sends out this lightly raced colt making his 4th career start. He won his first two starts, winning a maiden special weight race at Gulfstream and clearing the N1X condition at Tampa. Pletcher brought him here for the Risen Star where he tracked a strong pace and began to fade when Magnitude was making his powerful bid. I do like that he came back to finish 4th after it appeared that he was going to throw in the towel and plummet through the field. His figures have improved with each start and this race is definitely lacking a standout. Blinkers go on for his second foray into stakes company and Irad Ortiz sees fit to make the return trip to ride. Somehow, it feels like Pletcher and Ortiz are flying under the radar in this race.
8 – Furio (12-1 ML): This son of McKinzie finished second, five lengths behind Instant Replay (#9) when they met in allowance company last month. Going to the front end is his game, so I’d have to think that is going to be the tactic that Luis Saez is going to employ here. He’s had three solid works for Joe Sharp since that last race. He’s going to have to deal with John Hancock (#1), who has the pole position. He’s improving with each start, but this is a tough spot, and I’m not sure he’s quite as good as some of his rivals in this race.
9 – Instant Replay (6-1 ML): After taking two months off and relocating here from Oaklawn, he turned in a strong performance last time out to clear the N1X condition. His two wins have been excellent and if he follows his current development pattern, he could be expected to pair his 92 Beyer Speed from last time out. That number is tied for the highest in the field, so that does feel like something to keep in mind. His pedigree is a little more modest than some of his contemporaries in this race. He’s another one that wouldn’t be shocking if he won this race, but I’m not taking him in my top 3.
10 – Hypnus (10-1 ML): Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez team up to send out this son of Into Mischief for his third career start. He was a winner on this course on debut, rallying from the middle of the pack to draw off to win by 2 ½ widening lengths in the slop. That effort was good enough for him to be considered for the Rebel Stakes last month at Oaklawn. He broke alert, but settled near the back of the pack while allowing an aggressive pace to develop in front of him. Hernandez hugged the rail with him as he tried to advance while some of the others were falling back. He never had a clear path to accelerate, but he was loaded when they turned for home. He had a wall of horses in front of home and a seam never really developed. He finished with some interest, but could do no better than 7th. His trip stood out of one of the least advantageous in that race. His dam was a multiple graded stakes winner for Bob Baffert, winning her first five career starts. He’s had two works since that race over this oval after being based here for the better part of the winter. Hernandez clearly had horse and had he been able to get through, I think he clearly would have placed better. He might have the best pedigree from any of the McPeek three year olds in training and I do think there is a higher ceiling for him than some of his rivals in this race. The added distance and a fair early pace should help his cause. I think he could upset this group.
The Verdict: 10-7-2
This is an evenly matched field where I could be covered to five horses in the last leg of a multi-race wager and still feel vulnerable. I’m going to be looking for prices in this spot and I think Hypnus (#10) might have the most upside here. His debut was very good and he showed he’s capable of running well when he’s not on Lasix. His 7th place finish in the Rebel wasn’t a great end result, but he really had a difficult journey. For a younger horse to have to wait on hold and then have to re-break after getting shut off, I definitely think that was a better effort than what it looks like on paper.
While we’re going to have to wait to see how productive of a race the Rebel will be, I do think the Risen Star is already paying dividends as a successful Derby Prep, in spite of the fact that the runner that put up the huge figure in that race (Magnitude) is off the Derby Trail. American Promise was 5th that day and he came to easily score in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs last week. Chunk of Gold (#2), Built (#6), and Vassimo (#7) were second, third, and fourth, respectively in that race. I think we could see better efforts from both Vassimo and Chunk of Gold. Irad Ortiz retained the mount on Vassimo for Todd Pletcher. He’s been quiet on the Derby Trail this season, but that could change with this colt. Pletcher has had recent success in this race and this colt is improving with each start.
Chunk of Gold started his career with two races on the synthetic at Turfway. He ran well in those races, but he improved when making his third career start in the Risen Star, which was also his first on the dirt. He outfinished 11 other runners in that race, but he couldn’t keep pace with the winner. He went off at 43-1 that day and his lower profile connections might keep his price higher than it should be in this one.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
