We’re back for our second of four trips to New Orleans, Louisiana on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. A full field of 14 has been assembled for what should a very competitive running of the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes. While no winner of this race has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, both War of Will and Oxbow scored victories in this race, which later led to Preakness wins for both of them. This race will be the last of 12 of the day at the Fair Grounds and the post time is scheduled for 5:30 (CT).
Fair Grounds Race Course, 1/18/25, Race 12: The Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes:
42 Total Derby points (20/10/6/4/2)
1 – Innovator (10-1 ML): He broke his maiden for D. Wayne Lukas in his 7th career start, finally breaking through in the mud at Oaklawn at the end of December. He has losses to Owen Almighty, Chancer McPatrick, and Barnes on his resume, so even though he just broke his maiden, he has faced winners before. He came up short in the Grade 1 Hopeful, which was his only other try in graded stakes company. His dam was a talented turf sprinter and most of her runners have done their best work at one turn. I would have preferred to see him try longer distances in allowance company, however, when the connections paid $900K for this horse, they expected to see him in big races. I’m looking elsewhere for the winner.
2 – Maximum Promise (10-1 ML): He turned some heads at Ellis this summer, dominating a maiden special weight race there in August by over 14 lengths. That was his second career start and his first on the dirt. The only other foal to run from this mare has done almost all of his work on the turf in his career. He’s been working well enough for Ken McPeek and last year’s Derby winning jockey, Brian Hernandez, is back to ride. While that was a huge effort to break his maiden,this feels like a very ambitious spot for him to make his first start since the beginning of August. His ceiling is higher than others, but I’m not sure this is the right race for him right now.
3 – Admiral Dennis (8-1 ML): He made his stakes debut in the Gun Runner here last month after a decisive maiden score at Churchill two starts ago. He was one of two runners to stumble at the start of that race, which set the table for Built. He came up empty in that race, but when it became clear he was going to finish no better than 4th, Saez took it easy on him. From a pedigree and connection standpoint, there are things to like, but the fact that Cox entered him in a N1X allowance race on Monday suggests to me that he’s not going to be running in this race. If you like him in the Gun Runner, I could see paying him back in this spot, since he’s not going to be close to the 4-5 number he was last month. He’s a fringe contender for me if he runs, but I thinking that we’ll be seeing him on Monday instead.
4 – Magnitude (6-1 ML): Asmussen and Jose Ortiz team up again with this son of Not This Time who is looking to avenge his second place finish to Built in the Gun Runner Stakes. Jose Ortiz is absolutely dominating the jockey standing at this meet, winning at a 30% clip. When pairing up with Asmussen at the Fair Grounds, they’re winning 33% of the time. He was in chase mode for the entirety of that race and when the real running began, his rival was in an advantageous position. He’s been working well since that race and after pairing his Beyer Speed Figures for his first two, two-turn races, he’s eligible to take a step forward in this spot. He’s the only winner from four horses to make it to the track from his dam. However, he certainly must have looked the part as he cost $450K at the Keeneland September Sale in 2023. He’s listed at 6-1 and with his connections that may be as good as you’re going to get on him. He’s another fringe contender for me.
5 – Optical (20-1 ML): This son of City of Light is scheduled to make his 8th career start this afternoon for Keith Desormeaux. He was a winner in starter allowance company when going a one turn mile at Churchill in his most recent start. He was slated to run in the Smarty Jones Stakes two weeks ago at Oaklawn, but his connections opted to race him where he’s been training. Three of his last four efforts on the dirt have been solid, and I’m willing to toss his effort in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland where he had to pull up. My concern is that he really hasn’t shown any forward movement in those races, and he’s going to need to be at least 10 points better in this race than he’s been. He has been working well, so improvement could be expected, but I’m not convinced that it’s going to be enough. While Desormeaux and Graham pulled off the upset with Call Me Midnight in this race back in 2022, I think he’s in a little too deep here.
6 – Golden Afternoon (20-1 ML): This gelded son of Goldencents is the wild card in this field. He’s made three career starts, all of which came on the turf. All three of those races were strong efforts, with a pair of wins and a runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes. Carlo Vaccarezza was the trainer of record, however, he is stepping away from training right now, allowing his son, Nicholas, to take over. The elder Vaccarezza was winning at a 25% clip in 2024, with Nicholas studying his moves. I don’t think there’s going to be a change in the program for the horse, so the main question is going to be how he’ll take to the dirt. His dirt works are good but not great. His sire, Goldencents, did his best work on the dirt, winning the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in back to back years. He’s the first foal to run from the dam, Afternoon. She was winless in three starts, all coming on the turf. Her dam was an impressive mare named Acoma, who was a graded stakes winner on turf, dirt, and synthetic. I have enough doubts about many of the shorter priced options in this race, so I see him as a live longshot here.
7 – Calling Card (12-1 ML): He’s the first of two runners sired by Complexity in this race, with the other runner breaking in the next stall. He was an impressive 17 length winner in a state bred maiden special weight at Aqueduct two starts ago. He came back to run a distant third in a two turn mile allowance race at Oaklawn. When building my case against Kale’s Angel, who was favored in the Smarty Jones Stakes two weeks ago, I talked about the struggles of horses sired by Complexity in two turn races. Complexity himself struggled in his two-turn races and his first six runners at two turns lost. He did have a winner earlier this week at Tampa when New Plex broke his maiden in a $16K maiden claiming race going 1 mile and 40 yards. Perhaps his last effort was a bounce, but it’s hard to get excited about taking him in this spot where he’s facing tougher foes. Frankie Dettori riding will likely limit the value on him as well.
8 – Tough Catch (10-1 ML): The other son of Complexity makes his first start since winning the Sugar Bowl Stakes here last month. With the exception of his effort in the Grade 1 Hopeful, he’s been competitive in sprint stakes races. This will be his first start at two turns today, so that will be a huge question for him to answer. While Stewart is having a productive meet, his runners going from sprints to routes have struggled over the last year. Luis Saez ends up on him, but he won’t be on my tickets.
9 – Dapper Moon (12-1 ML): After earning a few points for finishing 4th in three straight Derby Points races, Dallas Stewart opted for some class relief by entering him in a state bred allowance race. He got the confidence building win in a six furlong race over this course last month. He comes back to open company and tries again in a Derby Points race at this 1 1/16 mile distance. I don’t love the way he finished in any of those races though, which leads me to believe he’s another runner that might be more effective in middle distance, one turn races.
10 – Mobetterthangood (20-1 ML): The second McPeek runner in this race is also coming into this race off a significant layoff. He broke his maiden in a seven furlong sprint race for New York breds on closing weekend at Saratoga. He’s been working well over this course, but I do think McPeek’s top tier runners typically target the Oaklawn races. I do like horses that are able to win on debut at seven furlongs, but like his stablemate, I think running in a race like this is asking a lot.
11 – Disco Time (9-2 ML): Brad Cox’s main threat in this race is this undefeated son of Not This Time, making his third start today. He won both of his races at Churchill, both of which came in one turn spots. He cleared the N1X allowance condition handily at the end of November. He’ll try two turns for the first time today. Brad Cox has done very well in these initial Derby Points races over the last few years, but his runners haven’t had the same level of success this year. While his barn has gone winless at Oaklawn up to this point, he is winning 30% of his races here at the Fair Grounds. The dam was a sprinter, but her first foal to race has all three of his career wins at two turns on the dirt. If he’s sitting there around his 9-2 morning line price, I’d be willing to take that here, because I do trust the connections. He’s a definite contender.
12 – Jolly Samurai (20-1 ML): He brought his undefeated record into the Remington Springboard Mile last month. He had a wide trip in that race and finish a non-threatening 5th. The winner of that race, Coal Battle, came back to easily win the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn last month. He was doing well at Remington when closing in sprint races, but he lacked the same powerful late kick when going to two turns in his last start. His wide draw in this race doesn’t help his cause either.
13 – Built (3-1 ML): The winner of the Gun Runner Stakes here had everything his own way in that compact field. Two of the major contenders in that race stumbled at the break, allowing him to set an easy tempo, leading every step of the way. He goes from Post 1 to Post 13 today, and there’s definitely going to be competition for the early lead. Loveberry is going to have to work hard to avoid going five wide into the first turn. This son of hard Spun is going to have to prove he can be comfortable in a stalking position today. He can handle the distance and that’s going to be a major question mark for many of his rivals in this spot. He’s a deserving favorite and worth using on tickets, but there is definitely some vulnerability here.
14 – Seattle Road (20-1 ML): The odds-on choice to be the back marker in this spot when they make the first turn is this son of Quality Road. He doesn’t have much early foot and with his draw, I think the only move for Marcelino Pedroza is to take him to the back of the pack and try to make one run at the leaders. He was beaten by Render Judgment and Hot Property in his first two maiden races on the dirt. While both of those runners were impressive in those races, neither went on to wow anyone at this level. He beat a decent field on this course last month, coming up the rail with a late surge, The Beyer Speed Figure was on the light side, so between that and his outside post, he’s likely to go off at odds longer than his 20-1 morning line figure. He is a proven commodity at this distance and I do see this as a race where there are going to be several horses that are finishing particularly fast. He feels like a horse that could be a good value play underneath in the trifectas and supers.
The verdict: 6-11-13:
There are several runners in this field that feel vulnerable at this distance, and many of those feel like they’re not likely to offer the best value. As a result, I’ll take a swing and make Golden Afternoon (#6) the top pick in this race. He’s never been on the dirt in the afternoon before, but he’s been highly competitive in his first three starts on the turf. He’s faced good competition on the grass and he has runners in his bloodlines that have excelled on multiple different surfaces. For sending out his first career runner as the trainer of record, I trust Nicholas Vaccarezza, seeing as how his father was having quite a good year before to stepping away.
Both Disco Time (#11) and Built (#13) are worth using in this spot, despite the question marks for both. Disco Time has been flawless in middle distance races at one turn, but he’s going to have to prove he can get the job done at two turns. He ran well in both wins and Cox has had a great track record in races like this. Built scored a win in the Gun Runner, which kicked off this series of Derby Points Races in New Orleans. He couldn’t have asked for an easier trip in that race where bad starts doomed his major competition. He put up a field best Beyer Figure for that effort and the two-turn pedigree is definitely there with him. He’s going to have to show he can overcome a less than ideal trip between the pace scenario and the bad post.
I’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race in this space, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
