With Churchill Downs taking ownership of Colonial Downs, they’ve created the opportunity to add a new Derby Prep race. The Grade 3 Virginia Derby was one of the signature races of the summer meet at Colonial, but this year, they moved it to March and to the dirt, highlighting a three day mini-meet, with all of the races being carded on their 1 ¼ oval dirt course. This race will be run at 1 ⅛ miles, which is a one turn race here. 10 horses that last raced at six different tracks compromise this eclectic field. This race is scheduled to go off at 5:10 (EDT).
Colonial Downs, Saturday 3/15/25, Race 9: The G3 Virginia Derby
105 Total Derby points (50-25-15-10-5)
1 – Calling Card (15-1 ML): I was looking forward to seeing this one run in the Gotham two weeks ago, because I thought after his impressive maiden breaking score in November, that he was going to be a very good horse at one turn, middle distance races. He was absolutely flat that day, finishing 7th, beaten 13 lengths, while never looking non-competitive at this level of competition. Maker wheels him back on two weeks rest and ships him to Virginia to try again. He’s never been better than five lengths behind the winner when racing in open company. I do think the distance and the pace scenario could be favorable for him, but I haven’t seen him run well enough to be considered when competing at this level of competition.
2 – John Hancock (3-1 ML): Brad Cox has declared his intention to run this colt next weekend in the Louisiana Derby meaning he is all but certain to be scratched out of this race. His defection does take away an important part of the early pace puzzle in this race.
3 – American Promise (12-1 ML): This is the first opportunity to gauge how good of a race the Risen Star actually was. This colt and Render Judgment were both clobbered by Magnitude in that race, but despite finishing well behind the winner, both runners ran strong figures for them. It took this Justify colt six times to break his maiden, losing to horses like Chancer McPatrick and Burnham Square along the way. He came through with a monstrous effort three starts ago at Oaklawn, earning a strong 95 Beyer Speed Figure on a muddy and sealed course. He was flat when making an early bid to push the tempo in the Southwest Stakes at the end of January. He didn’t break very sharp that day, but his troubles were not as visible as they were for some of the top tier names in that race. He faded to finish 6th and was disqualified and placed 7th in that race. He left Arkansas in favor of New Orleans where he ran into Magnitude, who was nothing short of brilliant when winning the Risen Star by almost 10 lengths. That one is out with an injury now, so it’s going to be interesting to see how some of the also-rans in that race compete. I think this colt fits with this group on speed figures. D. Wayne Lukas switches riders to Nik Juarez, a jockey that he’s won with 17% of the time since the start of 2024. He’s still learning the game, and he’ll have to prove that he can win a race when he’s not dictating the terms. However, he was bred to be a good horse and I think he’s sitting on a bigger effort. I think he can stalk the pace and make a run at the leaders in the stretch.
4 – Omaha Omaha (10-1 ML): When writing about the Withers last month, I wrote about wondering if this Virginia bred was targeting this race. My suspicions proved correct as Michael Gorham brings this deep closer to town on behalf on On Your Left Racing. Raul Mena has been in the irons for each of this colt’s (who is a cleverly named son of Audible, not Omaha Beach) starts. He has been in last place at first call in all six career races thus far, so if you’re backing him, you should know where to look for him in the early stages. The one turn, nine furlong distance, and the wider turns here at Colonial should play well for his closing style. It will be important to see if horses are winning races from off the pace on this dirt course. His prospects took a bit of blow when one of the major place players in this race, John Hancock, defected from this field in favor of the Louisiana Derby next Saturday. He saved ground when finishing a distant third in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct last month. He’s a fairly one dimensional runner that continues to gradually improve. I don’t think either of the New York races were terribly deep, and while I don’t see any world beaters in here, I do think this is a better field than the group he saw in the Withers. He wasn’t really a factor that day and I think the bottom of the vertical exotics in this race might be his ceiling.
5 – Studlydoright (15-1 ML): This Maryland bred runner tried a few Derby Points races on the NYRA Circuit after a big effort in the Nashua back at the beginning of November. He was dull in both the Remsen and the Jerome, fading to 4th in both spots. He tried the Tapeta when racing in the John Battaglia Memorial last month at Turfway, and he was never involved that day. He’s back on the dirt and he may be another runner that is well-suited to this unique, one-turn, nine furlong dirt race. However, when he has competed in Derby Points Races or graded stakes races, he really hasn’t fired his best shot. He’s tough for me to get behind here.
6 – Getaway Car (9-5 ML): Bob Baffert is making his presence felt on the Derby Trail this year, now that Churchill has allowed him to get back in the game. He sends out this Curlin colt who started his career with a pair of strong wins at Del Mar this summer. He faltered in the Del Mar Futurity and then he lost to horses like Citizen Bull and Journalism, who are currently on the short list as potential Derby favorites. He went to New Mexico to avoid some of those runners and he was tested by Caldera, who fought him tooth and nail throughout the duration of the stretch run. He prevailed in that race, but he won by the slimmest of margins. Irad Ortiz takes the mount for his second start of the year. While there are some other runners that want to be forward in this race, the defection of John Hancock makes his life significantly easier. I thought if that one was going to compete in this spot, he might cancel this one out. I think there’s a scenario that Irad Ortiz could wind up on an uncontested lead, which would make him extremely dangerous, especially if we’re seeing a track that favors inside speed earlier on the card. He is the class of this field and I do think he’s the kind of horse that is going to continue to improve for Baffert. He figures to be tough with this group.
7 – Rapture (5-1 ML): Perhaps Cox tipped his hand about his intentions with John Hancock when Flavien Prat was named to ride this Uncle Mo colt. Prat was in the irons when he easily beat a maiden special weight field at Oaklawn on the Southwest Undercard at the end of January. None of the also-rans in that race that have since competed, have tasted victory, so the depth of that race might be in question. He’s been based in Florida over the winter and he comes to town after three consecutive five furlong drills at Payson Park. He’s going to take money in this race because of his connections. He appears to be working in company with John Hancock, who shares common ownership with him. The Louisiana Derby offers a bigger purse and more Derby Points, so it makes sense to send his stablemate there. Here’s my thing with this runner. He’s almost certainly going to be bet down past his 5-1 morning line figure. I’m guessing he’s going to be in the neighborhood of 3-1 or 7-2 when they go into the gate. Interestingly enough, five of the other eight runners have run a higher Beyer Figure than him. Other figure makers have his last race graded higher though. While he certainly could prove to be good enough to win this race, I think I’d rather take some of the longer priced options on top, rather than take a price that feels too short for me.
8 – Authentic Gallop (10-1 ML): After taking five starts to figure things out, he has put together a nice string of three races, including a pair of wins at Oaklawn. That maiden victory over Caldera three starts back looks stronger after that one gave Getaway Car all he could handle in the Sunland Park Derby. He put up a career best figure when surging late in between horses to clear the N1X allowance condition at Oaklawn last month. However, the two runners that he beat in that race, came back to run the same kind of race two weeks ago. They were competitive, but both horses gave up the lead late once again. He is trending in the right direction though and he gets the services of the 2023 Derby winning jockey, Javier Castellano.
9 – Render Judgment (12-1 ML): The 2024 Derby winning duo of Ken McPeek and Brian Hernandez will team up with this son of Blame. All five of his career races have earned him Beyer Speed Figures between 75-79. He ran his usual race in the Risen Star last out when Magnitude ran off the screen. He finished 19 ¼ lengths behind the winner in that race. McPeek will try adding blinkers for the first time today. He looked very promising in his first two starts, but his last three efforts in Derby Points Races have left something to be desired. I’m leaning toward others.
10 – Georgia Magic (30-1 ML): This son of Good Magic was a winner on debut in a slow maiden special weight race at Aqueduct at the end of November. He took a shot and ran in the Jerome Stakes there where he finished a well-beaten 6th, about 23 lengths behind Omaha Omaha, who was the second place finisher that day. He tried N1X allowance company while getting Lasix, but could do no better than 4th, beaten 8 ½ lengths. It’s hard to imagine him running a race good enough to wind up in the Winner’s Circle today.
The Verdict: 3-6-4
As these Derby prep races go, this one is one of the more baffling ones. It’s an unconventional race that is essentially still a win and you’re in spot for the Derby. While Getaway Car (#6) feels like the one to beat. He could be vulnerable in this spot, shipping across the country without the services of his regular rider (although picking up Irad Ortiz is a fair trade off). While his task becomes a little easier with the defection of John Hancock (#2), I think there’s value in trying to beat him. I’ll use him, but American Promise (#3) is my top pick. The Risen Star was an odd race, but it’s hard to deny how big of an effort that was from Magnitude. This colt couldn’t keep pace with that one, but he wasn’t far behind the second, third, and fourth place finishers that day. He had trouble at the break in the Southwest and his young rider panicked a bit, forcing the pace with the eventual winner. He faded to 6th in that spot. His maiden breaking score was solid and he feels like he’s headed back in the right direction. I’m looking for Nik Juarez to stalk the pacesetter and try to make a run at Getaway Car late. D. Wayne Lukas trained Caldera, the horse that gave Getaway Car a strong fight in New Mexico last month. I think this Justify colt is better than his stablemate.
Omaha Omaha (#4) is the kind of horse that makes sense to use underneath. He’s never finished off the board in any of his first career starts on the dirt. He has absolutely no early speed though and that has been problematic for him at tougher levels of competition. He continues to get a little better with each start and if they start battling too early in this one, he could be one to come over the top and pick up the pieces. I think that with this being the only 10 furlong oval in the country, there is a chance that some jockeys mis-time their moves, which might also play to his favor.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
