The Champagne is one of three “Win and You’re in Stakes Races” for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that will be run this afternoon. While many of the recent winners of this race have proven to be more effective at one turn, there are plenty of Triple Crown Race winners that have graduated with a trophy in this race. Tiz the Law was the most recent in 2019, but that list also includes Union Rags, Birdstone, Timber Country, Sea Hero, Easy Goer, Spectacular Bid, Seattle Slew, Riva Ridge, and Count Fleet. The great Secretariat crossed the line first in this race in 1972, only to have his number come down due to alleged interference.
There are nine two year olds entered in this one turn mile contest this afternoon, many of which look to be promising runners. Post time for this race is scheduled for 3:20 (EDT) this afternoon.
Belmont at the Big A, Saturday, Race 7: The Grade 1 Champagne Stakes
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Curtain Call (6-1 ML): The lone son of a Champagne Winner (Tiz the Law), also has the most racing experience in this nine horse field, making his 4th career start this afternoon. He was an impressive maiden breaker when scoring at the Spa in his second career try. He overcame a stumble at the break to beat four overmatched rivals handily that day. That effort landed him in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes last month where he was no match for Ted Noffey, finishing third, 8 ½ lengths behind the winner. He was a head behind the runner-up and four lengths clear of the fourth place finisher that day. His figures for that race came back competitive. He has a nice progression of races, gradually going a little farther with each start. His dam was unraced, but the daughter of Into Mischief has produced four winners from four starters thus far. This colt, who cost $325K at the OBS Sales in March of this year, already appears to be the most talented of the bunch. Note that his regular rider, Jose Ortiz, opted to ride at Keeneland today, so Ricardo Santana Jr. will get the call in his place. He’s one of two horses trained by Mark Casse and he’s one of the contenders for this race.
2 – Stradale (8-1 ML): Steve Asmussen sends out this son of freshman sire Yaupon, who fetched $1.3 million at the OBS April Sale this spring. He’s making his third career start and is still in search of his first win, despite the fact that he was hammered at the windows in his first two tries. He’s the first foal to race from the winless Stormy Atlantic mare, Twitterpated. While he’s still young and improving, I really would have liked to see him hang on to break his maiden last out when he was up against Talkin, who he’ll have to deal with again today. I’m also a bit concerned that this race feels like a Plan B spot since was entered and scratched in a maiden race at Churchill last weekend, where he was stuck on the AE list. I’m not completely convinced that he’s going to be as effective at this mile distance as he was at seven furlongs. Manny Franco will be the third rider that gets on his back in his third career try. The fact that Santana rode this one in his last start and he winds up on Curtain Call is also a little troubling. Asmussen turns the reins over to Manny Franco, who has been red hot here to start off this meet. Judging by his overall price tag and the amount of attention he got at the windows for his first two tries, suggests to me that he’s going to go off at a shorter price than I am comfortable taking him at.
3 –Universe (12-1 ML): The first of two runners that Ken McPeek is looking to send out in this race is coming off a strong maiden score when debuting at seven furlongs at Saratoga at the end of August. He’s the second horse out of a Quality Road mare that was winless in her five career starts. Her first foal to race is still winless in 13 career tries. This son of Global Campaign was overlooked when drawing the rail in a nine horse maiden special weight field in his debut. He hit the side of the gate pretty good while breaking near the back of the pack. He moved up without being asked down the backside and then had to wait in behind horses around the turn before tipping out at the top of the stretch to find a clear path. Once he was free, he took off, winning by 4 ½ lengths on the line. I’m not sure how deep that field was, but I did think that one of the horses that he beat, came back with a strong effort at this distance in his last start. I am a sucker for horses that won on debut at seven furlongs and McPeek has been very sharp with his 13 starts at this meet thus far. While I think others are faster, there are some things to like, especially if there is a bit of pace meltdown.
4 – Aye Eye (15-1 ML): His debut went a little bit viral in August when he was an unlikely winner competing in an auction maiden special weight race at Saratoga. He was away slow and about 20 lengths behind his rivals. He came from out of the clouds while racing greenly in the stretch. He kicked in stronger once he changed leads in the middle of the stretch, which allowed him to dart toward the inside and pass his remaining rivals to score at long odds at first asking. He was considered for the Sapling at Monmouth, but connections took a bigger swing when entering him in the Hopeful that same weekend. He was 5th that day after breaking slowly again. His speed figures for his last effort went up, but at the end of the day, I don’t think he has the quality to win a race like this.
5 – Just Asap (12-1 ML): Unlike Aye Eye, this son of Maxfield opted to run in the Sapling at Monmouth, and he took the short end of the stick when dueling with the race winner, One More Freud, all the way around the track. He took the early lead in that race, he was engaged early on and passed by the race winner, but he was dead game, clawing himself back into the race to lose by a neck at the wire. That race came 26 days after debuting in a seven furlong maiden waiver claiming race at Ellis. He’s the only runner in this field with experience at this distance, even though the New Jersey race was a two turn mile. While the other two runners from this mare haven’t done much on the track, they both were winners. Mark Casse will tab Florent Geroux to ride this son of another freshman sire, Maxfield. He was on the lead in both of his first two starts, and I think it’s going to be harder for him to set the tempo in this race today. He proved that he has a lot of fight in him last time out, but I suspect he’s going to have to prove that he can win without making the early lead.
6 – It’s Our Time (1-1 ML): The morning line favorite in this race was probably the most impressive maiden winner at the recently concluded Saratoga meet. He was the second choice in a race where a debut runner trained by Whit Beckman was sent off as the 4-5 favorite. Both runners took more money at the windows than a Pletcher first timer and two Chad Brown first timers in that same race on the Alabama undercard. This colt broke first, but the favorite was intent on setting the pace. He stalked from second and then began to move up when being asked by Luis Saez on the turn. He blew by the leader and was pulling away while the rest of the field looked like they were stuck in quicksand. The final margin of victory was 17 ¾ lengths and all of the speed figures from that race came back quite favorably when compared to the other runners in this field. Now the challenge will be to see whether or not this colt can back that effort up in his second career start for Tom Amoss. Obviously, the connections are quite excited by this horse, who cost them $425K on debut. The dam was a multiple stakes winner in Florida. She won at seven furlongs in the 2021 Azalea Stakes, but she faltered in her only career start at this one turn mile distance. He’s worked well in Kentucky since then, but Amoss opting for this spot over the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity down the road from his home base, does tell me that there could be distance limitations for this one. On the other side of the coin, it is asking a lot of a horse to debut at 6 ½ furlongs and then win a Grade 1 race at two turns. He’s going to be a very short price in this race, especially when his debut effort is going to be replayed several times before they go into the gate. He might not be able to run back to his last race, but that might not matter as he might just be better than his eight rivals. I’ll be using him in this race, although the best value might lie elsewhere.
7 – Stickupwithoutagun (30-1 ML): the second McPeek trainee is a New York bred that broke his maiden with fellow Empire breds, but is now taking the plunge into open company this afternoon. He was well-beaten when going two turns on the turf in his debut, but he was sharper on dirt while cutting back to six furlongs in his next start. The other two runners that his dam foaled did their best work at shorter races on the dirt. While I think he could be formidable in a state bred stakes race at this distance, I think he’s in some very deep water while moving into Grade 1 company today.
8 – Napoleon Solo (8-1 ML): He’s another horse that put together an effort in a maiden auction race. He was a clear winner when going six furlongs at this Spa, doing so in a nice time. This son of Liam’s Map has been working well over the training track at Belmont for Chad Summers over the last few weeks. He’s the first foal to race from the mare, Atomic Blonde, who raced exclusively on the turf, while winning one stakes in her career. Summers has good numbers with two year olds. He doesn’t typically go from maiden wins to stakes company, so he has some faith in the ability of this Liam’s Map colt who only cost $40K at the 2024 Keeneland September Sale. He’s not without a chance in this race and he could be interesting if his odds float over his morning line figure.
9 – Talkin (5-1 ML): He’s another seven furlong debut winner that is making his second career start in this race. He’s sired by the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, Good Magic and trained by Danny Gargan. Gargan has trained seven other horses sired by Good Magic so far. Three of those runners, including the 2024 Belmont winner, Dornoch, are graded stakes winners. Another one was Grade 1 placed as a two year old. This colt was foaled by the mare Rote, who has had seven other horses make it to the track. Five of them were winners, with the best being Royal Obsession, who finished second in the 2016 Grade 2 Gazelle Stakes. His full brother was a maiden special weight winner at two turns on the dirt at Keeneland, so there’s reason to believe that he can improve when going longer distances. His connections paid $600K for him at the Keeneland September Sale in 2024, so he’s looked the part for a while now. He handled his best at first asking and he showed he was comfortable while coming from off the pace to score. He finished in front of Stradale, who was the heavy favorite in that spot. I trust this one more while going an extra ⅛ of a mile in this race. He’s the pick for me in this one.
The verdict: 9-6-1
While It’s Our Time (#6) is clearly the one to beat in this race, we’ve seen many instances where horses run lights out in their debut, but are unable to back it up once they face winners. This one left Saratoga for Kentucky after his strong maiden breaking effort, so I’m not certain this race was Plan A for this colt. While the one turn mile makes sense for him, I do wonder if the presence of Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity this afternoon at Keeneland made Amoss change course. He is running Big Dom against that Grade 1 winner, so perhaps he’s just trying to keep his good horses separated for now. Luis Saez is coming here to ride this colt after riding at Keeneland yesterday, so missing their biggest day of the racing in the fall tells me that Saez is a believer in this one. He’ll be on my tickets, but I’m siding with Talkin (#9) on top. I really liked his effort when debuting at seven furlongs against a solid field at Saratoga on closing weekend. The pedigree is strong and I think he could benefit from horses that might be getting tired in the later stages of this one.
Curtain Call (#1) also makes sense as a horse to use in this race. I’m sure Mark Casse was thrilled that Pletcher opted to showcase his two year old star in Keeneland as opposed to this spot. He ran well to finish in the Hopeful when he ran against Ted Noffey that day. He has one more start than anyone else in this race, so that added foundation certainly could work in his favor.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
