Last year, Sovereignty made his three year old debut a winning one in the Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes. He would finish second in the Florida Derby and win the rest of his races in 2025 after that, including the Kentucky Derby. Gulfstream Park has become a hotbed for Derby activity as 10 of the last 25 Kentucky Derby winners had at least one race at Gulfstream during their three year old campaign. While the impressive winner of the Holy Bull Stakes, Nearly, is sitting this one out, he’ll likely have some good company coming out of this race when the field is assembled for the Florida Derby at the end of March. Post time for this contest is scheduled for 6:11 (EST).
Gulfstream Park, Saturday 2/28/26, Race 14: The G2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes
105 Total Derby points (50-25-15-10-5)
1 – Jackson Hole (8-1 ML, 25-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): There’s several quality runners in this race starting with this 1.3 million dollar son of Nyquist, who is making his third career start this afternoon for Todd Pletcher. He debuted here in December where he came from off the pace to win that afternoon in a seven furlong sprint. Pletcher brought him to New Orleans where he ran in a solid allowance race on the Lecomte undercard. He ran a faster race that day and earned a higher Beyer Figure than Golden Tempo, who was the winner of the Lecomte later on that day. There’s clearly some ability here and he’s making his third start in what will be his second try at two turns. He’s drawn well for an 1 1/16 mile race at Gulfstream. The dam’s first two runners were productive, but nothing special, however, this is the first time she’s been paired with an elite sire such as Nyquist. Pletcher has not had a great meet this winter at Gulfstream, winning with only 12% of his horses, however, his success in the high end three year old races at Gulfstream is well-documented. He certainly wouldn’t be a surprise, but my gut is telling me to look elsewhere.
2 – Rockies Balboa (20-1 ML, 175-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): I’m not quite sure what to make of this son of Girvin here. He’ll be stretching out to two turns for the first time after five sprint races to start his career. He was excellent when he finished second to Local Knowledge in a fast maiden allowance race at Keeneland in the fall. He was making his second start of his career that day, so that effort was definitely worth getting excited about. He bounced badly though when coming back 22 days later at Churchill and finishing near the back of the back in a maiden allowance there. He went south for the winter and improved when breaking his maiden in a maiden optional claiming race at Gulfstream. Being a Florida bred, he was eligible to run in that race without the claiming tag. He leaned into the perks of being bred in the Sunshine State when facing state bred N1X allowance foes last time out. He won by over five lengths that day when stretching out to seven furlongs for the first time. He has two strong efforts in back to back races, but this is a major jump in class. This is one I’d rather see in an open N1X allowance before shooting his shot in a larger Derby Prep race.
3 – Talkin (15-1 ML, 100-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Danny Gargan sends out this son of Good Magic for his three year old debut this afternoon. He won a strong maiden allowance race at the end of the Saratoga meet when making his career debut. Four winners came out of that race, including Grade 2 winner, Further Ado. He came back to run in the Champagne where he ran second, well behind Napoleon Solo, who he’ll see against today. He bypassed the Breeders’ Cup and made his last start as a two year old in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. He drew post 11 in the nine furlong contest. He hit the gate at the break, causing him to break a bit awkwardly. It certainly didn’t help his cause while trying to find somewhere to tuck and save some ground. He ended up being about four wide all the way around the first turn. He was in behind horses and tried to go with Renegade (the second place finisher) who made a storing outside move, trying to get the jump on Paladin. He ended up being boxed in and then boxed in again by another horse. He faded badly, but the trip was the bigger issue. Gargan gave him about 45 days off and then started him up at Palm Meadows. In an interesting twist of fate, Joel Rosario rode Napoleon Solo to victory in the Champagne and Kendrick Carmouche was aboard this colt that day. Carmouche is on Napoleon Solo and Rosario gets the call on this one for the first time. He clearly has some ability and I think he can be forgiven for his effort in the Remsen. Paladin and Renegade were already winners on the Derby Trail, so that race has turned out to be one of the more useful two year old races last year. At 15-1, he feels like a completely under the radar runner in this spot, and I think he has a reasonable shot in this one.
4 – Commandment (2-1 ML, 30-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Brad Cox sends out this $500K son of Into Mischief, who is looking for an encore performance to his massive effort in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. Rockies Balboa finished in front of him in that 10/4 Keeneland maiden allowance race. He came from off the pace to score impressively in a seven furlong maiden race at Churchill at the beginning of November. He took a definite step forward in the Mucho Macho Man when he humbled an overmatched field of six rivals. This will be the first time a horse foaled by the Grade 1 winning filly, Sippican Harbor, will try two turns. Cox sent out Cannoneer in the Holy Bull and that one laid an egg, finishing off the board in his two turn debut. Irad Ortiz gets the return call for this horse who is definitely live in this spot, but figures to be overbet like his stablemate was.
5 – Bravaro (8-1 ML, 60-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Saffie Joseph has declared that the runner-up in the Holy Bull Stakes last month will opt to run in this race as opposed to the Rebel tomorrow. I thought this colt had a live look in that race and he came with a wide bid, but he was unable to match strides with Nearly, who was much the best. He’s a New York bred son of Upstart who has done little wrong in three starts. I think he stands to move forward in this race after a strong effort last time out. While I do expect him to improve, this field is definitely deeper than the Holy Bull group. He has an outside shot in this race.
6 – Chief Wallabee (9-2 ML, 16-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Bill Mott won this race last year with Sovereignty, but he’s got a very different type of runner with this intriguing colt. He was very impressive when winning his seven furlong debut here last month. Mott originally mentioned that he didn’t think this one was going to be on the Derby Trail just yet, but here we are. He’s the first foal to race from an unraced Medaglia d’Oro mare. Constitution is the sire, so from a pedigree standpoint, I don’t anticipate the distance being an issue for this one. I do wonder about the lack of seasoning though and the fact that the owners might have been more keen on running in this spot than the trainer gives me a little bit of a reason to back off him. There’s clearly interest in this horse as his Future Book number is lower than anyone else in this field (including the Grade 1 winner, Napoleon Solo). That tells me there’s a reasonable chance that he could go into the starting gate at odds below his 9-2 morning line. He certainly could be that good, but I think he’ll be too short of a price for me to back.
7 – Napoleon Solo (7-2 ML, 22-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): This undefeated son of Liam’s Map makes his three year old debut for Chad Summers in a loaded field. He’s the lone Grade 1 winner here after a dominating run in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct in October. His connections opted to skip the Breeders’ Cup and plot out a three year old campaign that launches here. He’s been working well at Palm Meadows for Chad Summers. He’s the first foal to race from a mare that won a stakes race on the turf here at Gulfstream back in 2020. My concern for this colt is that he went to the front in the Champagne and just ran the field off their feet that day. The times from that race look incredible, including a 1:07:4 six furlong split. His Timeform numbers are strong, suggesting that he can go very fast early and finish well late if he has to. He’s trying two turns for the first time though and he’ll have six horses outside of him in a short run to the first turn. If he can beat this field, I think he’s a legitimate horse in the Derby that could easily challenge Paladin. However, I think this is the deepest Derby Prep race yet and I’m not convinced yet that he’s the total package. I’m going to try to beat him in this race.
8 – Bull by the Horns (30-1 ML, 150-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Saffie Joseph’s second entrant in this race broke his maiden two starts ago in a one turn mile race in November on this oval. That race came before the Championship Meet began, so the quality of his opposition was significantly lower than some of the other Gulfstream maiden winners. Joseph sent him to Tampa to try N1X opposition at two turns, suggesting to me that there wasn’t enough confidence to try that level here. He finished third in that race, so it does feel odd that this is a spot where they’d give him a class test. He’s likely doing well, but he feels significantly behind the others in this spot.
9 – Global Aviator: (SCRATCHED)
10 – Solitude Dude (5-1 ML, 75-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): The third Saffie Joseph runner is an undefeated son of Yaupon who has two stakes scores to his credit thus far. He was an impressive maiden winner on the same card that Bull by the Horns broke his maiden back in November. He traveled across the state to Tampa to take home the trophy in the Inaugural Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. He handled the stretch out to seven furlongs with ease with a solid win in the Swale Stakes last month. Flavien Prat takes over in the saddle as Irad Ortiz will be riding Commandment. He’s another horse that deserves a shot in this race, however, the outside draw and the two turn distance for a son of Yaupon create some serious questions in this race. I’m using other runners here.
11 – Lost Money (50-1 ML): The lone maiden in this field has never finished better than seven lengths behind the winner in a maiden race. He was second to a runaway winner in a one mile race here last out. I’ve seen nothing from him on the track to think that he could contend with a field at this level.
The Verdict: 3-5-4
I see several runners that have a legitimate chance to win this race, which is one of the better Derby Prep races in terms of both talent and wagering perspectives. I’ll roll the dice with Talkin (#3) as the top pick in this race. I think there are other high profile horses in this race and this Good Magic colt figures to be flying under the radar. His Remsen effort was not great, but his trip was poor, and certainly could have played a major role in his dull effort. The top two finishers from that race are serious contenders for the Derby at this point in the season. He ran well enough in his first two starts to suggest that he can join them on that short list.
Bravaro (#5) is a New York bred that ran well in his first start on this course against open company. He continues to move forward in each of his three starts and having a two turn race in graded stakes company under his belt feels like an advantage that he has over several of these runners. His trainer, Saffie Joseph, has three shots in this race, but I think this is the one you want.
Commandment (#4) has shown patience and the ability to stalk and pounce, which should serve him well in this spot as he stretches out to two turns. He was very sharp in his third career start when easily winning the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. While Brad Cox’s other local high profile runner, Cannoneer, struggled in his two turn debut last month in the Holy Bull, I think he’s better suited for this challenge.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
