The Grade 3 Gotham Stakes will be the first of three 105 Derby Point races to be run this weekend. A field of nine are entered in this one turn mile race which is not typically an indicator of Triple Crown success. You have to go back to Red Bullet in 2000 to find the last Gotham winner to also win a Triple Crown race. While the list of recent winners are forgettable names at best, on paper, there are some promising horses entered in this race, headed by a monstrous maiden winner, Iron Honor, for Chad Brown. Post time for this race, which is the last of the day today at Aqueduct, is scheduled for 5:18 (EST).
Aqueduct, Saturday 2/28/26, Race 12: The G3 Gotham Stakes
105 Total Derby points (50-25-15-10-5)
1 – Balboa (6-1 ML, 125-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): This son of Not This Time started his career in California with Bob Baffert. However, once it became apparent that he was not one of the top horses in that barn, the SF Racing, Starlight, Madaket group sent him to Maryland to be campaigned by Brittany Russell. Since joining her barn, he won a small stakes at Laurel and he finished in the money in both the Remsen and Jerome Stakes on this oval. He was cross-entered in the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel last weekend, but he defected from that spot, allowing his stablemate to secure the victory that day. He’s back here and that effort in the Remsen looks stronger when considering how well Paladin ran in his 2026 debut. However, if he was the horse that I think his connections were hoping he’d be, there’s no way he would have lost to My World in the Jerome Stakes last out. The rail draw is not great for him in this spot because there are other speed horses, and some of them are stretching out from shorter races. We’ll see how Sheldon Russell decides to play things, but I think he’s going to have to send. I prefer others in this spot.
2 – Hammond (5-1 ML): After two straight wins at Gulfstream, he showed up in the Swale Stakes in his last start and put forth a solid effort to finish 3rd that day for Saffie Joseph. Joseph also campaigns Bravaro, who is racing in the Fountain of Youth of today, so it makes sense that he’s sending this son of Charlatan north for this start. I thought his effort in the Swale was better than it looked on paper. He botched the break when the starter caught him with his head turned. He was at the back of the pack when facing Solitude Dude (who was the 1-5 favorite and is running in the Fountain of Youth today as well). The pace wasn’t terribly fast in that race so Zayas was forced to make a premature move. He made an eye-catching, five wide bid on the turn only to be rebuffed by the favorite, who found another gear. The distance is a question mark though. The only other horse to race from his dam never went longer than six furlongs and she herself was a sprinter. He has been working well at Palm Meadows for a sharp barn. He’s a little interesting in this race.
3 – Crown the Buckeye (4-1 ML, 125-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): This Ohio bred son of Yaupon came close in the Gun Runner Stakes two starts ago when moving from state bred competition to open stakes company. He was under a lot of pressure last time out in the Lecomte Stakes and he had nothing left for the stretch drive, finishing 8th that afternoon. He was working well at the Fair Grounds, and Maker started bringing him north last week, giving him a final work at Churchill before sending him up this way. He is versatile enough that he can perform well when he’s not on the lead. However, he was sent to the front in his last two starts in New Orleans. I do like the cutback in distance to a one turn mile for him. I think those two turn races should give him the foundation to handle this change. If he battles for the lead though, I think he could be in trouble. I have some mixed feelings about him, but I do see a path to victory here.
4 – Fourth and One (20-1 ML): This New York bred was an impressive maiden breaker at this distance two starts ago. He moved to open company in the Withers Stakes three weeks ago where he drew the outside post. He was wide throughout and was never involved in the outcome of that Derby Points race. While this distance may suit him better, I’m not sure he’s going to be a force in open company. He may be one to consider when he’s back with fellow Empire breds.
5 – Right to Party (8-1 ML, 150-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): This Constitution colt had the misfortune of running into Iron Honor on debut. He was a distant third that day behind that colt and Crossingthechannel, who was a solid next out maiden winner. This colt stretched out to this same mile distance for his second start and handled his business by going from last to first to win a modest maiden allowance race here last time out. That effort was not good enough to inspire his connections to pay $600 to nominate him to the Triple Crown races, despite paying $325K. To me, that is a telling sign that he’s probably not good enough to win a race like this. I’m looking elsewhere.
6 – Iron Honor (8-5 ML, 40-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Chad Brown is already holding one ace with Paladin on the Derby Trail, and he’s looking to bolster his hand with this second time starter today. He put up a serious Beyer Speed Figure for his win in a six furlong sprint here in December. He was given 30 days off while shipping to Payson Park in Florida. He’s been working steadily there and now he resurfaces back at the Big A for his first try against winners. I like the one turn mile for him for his second start, and with the exception of Balboa and Crown the Buckeye, there’s not a ton of racing experience against winners in open company in this field. He’s sired by the 2016 Derby winner, Nyquist, and he’s the first foal to race from a Blame mare that was a two time winner. He’s going to be a short price, and if he’s the same colt that showed up on debut last year, he’s going to win this race. There is the element of the unknown here though, so while there are several things to like, I would exercise a bit of caution.
7 – Exhibition Only (15-1 ML): He debuted against Soldier N Diplomat (2nd Place in the Southwest, running tomorrow in the Rebel) back at Saratoga and was never involved in that race. He went to the turf for his next three starts. He didn’t show much in his turf sprints, but he ran a better race when routing two starts back. He missed a few months and came back in an optional maiden claiming race where he was a much the best winner. He clearly is a horse that wants to go longer distances, and despite facing softer competition in his last start, his speed figures for that race stack up against several in this field. The downside for him in this race is that there is likely going to be other speed that is going to try to control the tempo in this spot. He had a very easy front-running trip last time out, so how he handles any type of adversity remains to be seen.
8 – Creole Chrome (12-1 ML): This Louisiana bred was cross-entered in a state bred this afternoon at the Fair Grounds, and David Grening has reported that the intention is to stay home and defect from this spot. I’ll be operating under the assumption that he’ll be scratched.
9 – Dirty Rich (10-1 ML): Peter Miller ships this Thousand Words colt to New York from his Arkansas base. He has a pair of monster efforts at 5 ½ furlongs on the dirt, including a stakes win in the Advent Stakes at Oaklawn in December. His other races are very pedestrian though and there’s nothing in his running lines that tells me he wants any part of this distance at this level of competition.
The Verdict: 2-6-3
While Iron Honor (#6) is a strong favorite in this race, there is an element of the unknown with this one. He’s probably the most likely winner, but there’s enough of a question mark that I don’t want to be completely locked in with him at 4-5 or lower. There’s no denying that if he can replicate his maiden score, there doesn’t appear to be anyone in this field that can match that. However, I think it’s worth exploring some other options.
Saffie Joseph is sending out three horses in the Fountain of Youth this afternoon at Gulfstream, but the horse that he’s shipping here, Hammond (#2) is interesting. He was a long price in the Swale Stakes last month at Gulfstream and he missed the break when his head was turned. He never really got to run the race he wanted to, but I think his bold middle move suggests to me that he has some ability and a decent turn of foot. He has improved in each of his four starts and feels like the horse that has the best chance to pull off the upset in this race.
Crown the Buckeye (#3) is cutting back to a one turn race after getting leg weary in the final furlong of his last two Derby Points races at the Fair Grounds. He’s sired by Yaupon, so I do think he could be a horse that excels in middle distance races at one turn. He continues to work well so I think there is a chance he could rebound after facing a contentious bunch in the Lecomte.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
