By PTF
Rodriguez, the son of 2020 Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup classic winner and Horse of the Year Authentic, brings an intriguing storyline (the return of Bob Baffert to Churchill Downs) alongside impressive speed showcased by his win in the nine-furlong Wood Memorial. He looks to have the right blend of speed and stamina to be a Kentucky Derby player in an average year – though this year might be a lot better than average.
Racing Record and Notable Performances
Rodriguez arrived on the Derby scene in a notable way in just his second career start, beating down a talented field (that included Baeza) to win by seven lengths with a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. He did so with every advantage – the track was playing to speed and he was able to dominate a pace that was no more than even but still, it was an impressive effort.
His subsequent two runs, but on the California path to the Derby, were at least marginally disappointing off the promise of the maiden win, but they also both came with excuses. It’s my belief that Rodriguez got the worst of the team tactics in both of those efforts. He faced a more fancied stablemate in each running and in both cases, said stablemate was allowed to lead while Rodriguez’s best weapon – his speed – was rationed early, something he didn’t appear to enjoy. He wasn’t disgraced either day, but on the bare form he looked no match for the best of his generation – at least not at that point.
Pedigree and Connections
- Sire: Authentic
- Dam & Damsire: Cayala (by Cherokee Run)
- Owner: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing & others.
- Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Jockey: Mike E. Smith
This isn’t a pedigree that I love for 10 furlongs. Then again, I didn’t like Authentic’s pedigree for 10 furlongs either and history shows that he won the Kentucky Derby and the BC Classic at that very distance. However, I still think there’s an argument to be made that had the 2020 Derby been run on the first Saturday in May, rather than September, that he might not have been quite ready to get the distance at that stage.
This ownership group has sone a great job of picking out horses who can run this far and it’sentirely possible they’ve done so again here. I don’t see the blood as a particular positive but I suppose one could argue that’s mitigated by the connections.
Bob Baffert certainly needs no introduction – he’s won eight Derbies after all — and it would be a very “horse racing” thing indeed to see him win the Derby in the first year he is once again eligible to do so.
Jockey Mike Smith has won the Derby twice and the wily veteran will give his mount every chance.
Final Prep Analysis
- Final Prep Race: G2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct (April 5th)
- Finishing Position: 1st of 10
- Final Time: 1:48.15
- Beyer Speed Figure: 101
Breaking from the rail, Rodriguez was allowed for the first time since the maiden win to properly use his early speed. The result was an impressive front-running victory in the Wood Memorial, beating Grande along the way. Captain Cook attempted to go with him early but Rodriguez was far too strong under Mike Smith, eventually winning by 3 1/2 lengths and re-emerging as a legit Kentucky Derby contender.
Strengths and Concerns
Strengths:
His biggest strength are his connections. A sharp ownership group and a Hall of Fame trainer and jockey. It doesn’t get much better.
He’s also probably a bit better than the bare form simply because he wasn’t at his best in those races he was rated. I’m not saying he’s as good as Journalism – he’s not – but he’s closer than that seven-length margin would suggest.
Concerns:
Normally I’d consider his speed a strength, but maybe not against this group. There is a lot of early gas and we already know he isn’t as his best rating. The pace scenario feels like a real potential pot hole for him.
The competition. There are a bunch of recent Derby fields where Rodriguez’s merits would make him a prime contender for me but the combination of the pace and the quality of the closers who will be chasing home, make this a difficult assignment in my view. Runners like Sovereignty, Journalism, and even Baeza should he draw into the final field, make this a better-than-average looking Derby on paper.
Expert Opinions and Odds
This horse will take money for sure. International markets have him between 14-1 and 20-1 but I think he comes out shorter than that for the Baffert narrative and the triple-digit figure and his speed. Unofiicial ITM ML maker Nick Tammaro’s educated guess of 10-1 sound more right to me and this horse steam in from there depending on the vibes over the next several days.
Conclusion
I’ve written this piece like he’s a one-way, need-the-lead type and that’s my gut, but it’s also possible he’s just an improving three-year-old and the earlier rating experiments click with the step forward he’s taken and he trips out and runs a huge race.
I don’t love Rodriguez in this year’s Derby but he has some positives and there’s an element of insanity insurance in including him – at least as a deeper backup in horizontal wagers. There are many horses I don’t mind losing too because there’s nothing to second guess if they beat me. I’m an adult and don’t mind being wrong. But losing to Bob Baffert in his return to Churchill Downs in the Derby? That would be a weekend ruiner.
Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles
Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk
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[…] Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez […]