14:30 – Chesham Stakes – Listed – 2YO only – 7f
Key Stats
Aidan O’Brien has won five of the last ten renewals.
Market Leaders
And O’Brien has every chance of improving that record as #1 AIX LA CHAPELLE looks sure to go off favourite off the back of a likeable effort on debut, winning readily at the Curragh. He was his stable’s second string there but picked up much better than his odds-on stablemate, Giant Sequoia, to reel in the exposed Bull Shark (ran no sort of race in the Coventry Stakes) and prove well on top at the line. Ballydoyle have already been amongst the winners with their juveniles this week and this guy has a load of potential, but there’s very little juice in the price now in my view. Timeform have him second top-rated, but the speedfigure he clocked was unspectacular.
#15 SEA VENTURE heads the ratings here following a debut at Haydock that was impressive in many ways. This daughter of Sea The Stars was always travelling strongly but had to wait for a run as the race unfolded in front of her. When unleashed, the response was seriously good, reeling in the front-runners rapidly and powering away under limited handling (second has bombed out since). The time was good, as were the visuals, and she should relish this extra furlong. My main concerns for her are that she had a perfect trip on debut and now has to tackle better going and better foes.
#11 TIME FOR THE MOON was well supported for a Novice on that same Haydock card that #15 SEA VENTURE won on but just seemed a bit rusty that day and maybe wasn’t totally in love with the tacky ground there. He showed the benefit of that experience next time out when bolting up at Musselburgh, clocking a fast time and some good splits, and this stoutly bred sort will relish this stiff finish.
Key Contenders
#3 NOLA SOUL landed a Leopardstown Maiden that typically throws up a good one on debut. He did a lot wrong there, misbehaving at the start and racing keenly, as well as racing on the wrong lead, but he got the job done on pure ability. He should come on a ton for that debut and the combination of sectionals and final time suggest that this is a very talented horse. His form got a big boost with the runner up from his debut, KIng Of Cloughan, winning the Windsor Castle and I think he’s going to go close.
Interesting Outsiders
#6 REVELS won a weak enough race on debut but was well found in the market and should improve plenty for that initial effort. He represents a top stable and should run well.
#8 SOUTH DAKOTA is a stablemate of #1 AIX LA CHAPELLE and he shaped with plenty of promise on his debut behind Sergei Diaghilev (only ran OK in the Windsor Castle). He was ridden by a 5lb bug rider that day and weak in the betting – clearly connections thought he’d need the run – but shaped with plenty of promise despite a wide trip with no cover. He should step forward markedly for that and has plenty of stamina in his pedigree, so it’d be no surprise if he ran well.
15:05 – King George V Stakes – Heritage Handicap – 3YO only – 1m 3f 211y
Key Stats
Double-figure stalls have won seven of the last ten renewals. British-trained runners have landed nine of those races.
Market Leaders
#12 INTO THE LIGHT looks a likely sort here. Representing top connections, he looked rather unlucky not to get the better of Lost Boys last time out at Sandown, too far back off a steady pace but doing some excellent work at the finish. That rival has gone on to win the prestigious London Gold Cup and a mark of 88 for Into The Light looks very workable off the back of that. His dam was a winner over nearly 2 miles in the mud so the return to this distance should suit and he’s nicely situated in stall 11. Very solid claims.
#17 HEYZOOM looks like he ran into a good one two back but he showed that he is smart himself with a very likeable win at Newbury last time out. He comes out top on the ratings based on that effort, which was backed up by the timefigure, and I feel like he won with something up his sleeve there. He’s with an excellent trainer and it’s inconceivable that he isn’t a fair bit better than mark of 85, particularly with more to come over this trip. Connections have stated that he might want some juice in the ground, however, and he could have been drawn a bit higher.
Key Contenders
The aforementioned London Gold Cup is usually one of the strongest handicaps run in England all year and #2 TIERRA DEL TORO likely excelled himself in finishing third in this year’s renewal. That was his first run of the season so he can be expected to improve again, and I think the ten-furlong trip was slightly against him there, as he couldn’t quite quicken as well as the front two at the key stage of the race. He’s been bought by Wathnan Racing since that run and there’s every chance he can start repaying some of his fee here, particularly as this step up in trip should suit him.
He had #5 AL AZD behind last time out but that rival was ridden too far back off a slow pace and did very well to make up so much ground before flattening out a little bit late on which was to be expected. He should get a better gallop to run at here and this quirky sort is not handicapped out of things by any means.
#3 CANNES has been brought along steadily by his excellent trainer but really looks to be coming good now based on his Maiden win at Leopardstown last time. He was well on top at the finish there and the form as worked out well already, so there’s plenty of reason to believe this €500,000 yearling is capable of better still, although an opening mark of 95 looks plenty stiff enough.
#6 JOULANY finished behind Derby second Maltese Cross two back and behind Galiyan (disappointed in the Queen’s Vase on Wednesday) last time out, clocking big speed figures on both occasions. He’s been gelded since his last run and has the tongue-tie added now, which may unlock some of this well-bred sort’s latent potential. Stall 2 might be a little closer to the inside than ideal, though.
#10 ENCELADUS, like #3 CANNES, is trained by Joseph O’Brien and has a very similar profile, winning on his third start having improved with each run. They have a collateral formline through a horse called Almazann which brings them out broadly the same at these weights. #10 ENCELADUS showed a good attitude last time out and should improve again for this trip, while Ryan Moore is also booked.
#11 BELIEVED is another who made it third time lucky in Ireland. Her run two back was very good pitched in against what is likely to be a Group class filly and she couldn’t have been more impressive last time out when storming away from a solid yardstick at Dundalk. The return to turf won’t bother her and Oisin Murphy aboard is another plus, even if the draw could have been a little better.
Interesting Outsiders
#13 GOLDEN KNIGHT didn’t show a great deal on his return but is well drawn for an excellent target trainer in Ed Walker and can be expected to run much better here.
15:40 – Ribblesdale Stakes – Fillies’ Group 2 – 3YO only – 1m 3f 211y
Key Stats
Aidan O’Brien and the Gosdens have won nine of the last ten renewals.
Market Leaders
#9 LEGACY LINK continues to improve with racing and took her form to the next level when a fine second in the Oaks last time out having travelled well throughout. She was no match for the exciting Thundering On but sets the form and ratings standard on that run. She’ll be on the inside here though, which may not be ideal.
It’s interesting that a fellow Juddmonte runner ships in to take her on. Francis Graffard is quickly becoming one of the best target trainers around – he had a winner here on Tuesday – and his #5 GILDED PRIZE looks set to run a big race here. This filly lost her unbeaten record last time out but probably found the ground too soft on breeding and may progress again back on a surface that’ll play to her strengths.
Key Contenders
#4 EARTH SHOT’S form got a nice boost at the weekend with Inis Mor placing in the French Oaks and this daughter of Time Test continues to progress. She’ll need more here but the step up to this distance should suit.
#7 JOHANNA WALSH catches the eye, particularly if Believed runs well in the previous race. Trained by Oaks-winning trainer Joseph O’Brien, he’ll know where she stands in relation to Thundering On, arguably the best 3-year-old filly in training, and any market confidence behind here should be noted. She should improve again for this distance and might get the perfect stalking trip in the two path. Could well cause the upset.
Interesting Outsiders
#6 GOLDEN ORBIT looked like a talented horse when winning on debut at Newmarket last September. She didn’t look quite as good, or straightforward, at Newbury when well backed in a Listed race but might enjoy switching back to a stiffer track with blinkers applied. Rossa Ryan gave one a fine ride to win here on Tuesday and should have this filly perfectly spotted, so she might be able to hit the frame.
16:15 – Gold Cup – Group 1 – 4YO plus – 2m 3f 210y
Key Stats
4-year-olds have won five of the last ten runnings. The Gosdens and Aidan O’Brien have won the race eight times in that period.
Market Leaders
#10 SCANDINAVIA is the young pretender having won the Goodwood Cup and St Leger last season. He’s unbeaten since the cheekpieces were applied and has won both of his starts this season in his customary lazy fashion, only doing the bare minimum and idling in front. He’s followed the same path as many of his illustrious stablemates and comes here in fine fettle and with scope for further improvement. I think he’ll get this trip with ease and might prove different class to these if he improves for it, as I suspect he might.
#6 TRAWLERMAN finally got his moment in the spotlight in this race last season with Kyprios out of the picture, going on to prove himself the dominant stayer by following that up with wins in the Lonsdale Cup and the Long Distance Cup. He is the one to beat on ratings and speedfigures, although he’s not getting any younger now and it’d be an incredible effort to win this aged 8 without a prep run. The yard won the big race today and seem to be hitting some nice for now.
#9 RAHIEBB was only a neck behind #10 SCANDINAVIA in the St Leger last season and looks to have improved again based on his ready success in the Yorkshire Cup on seasonal debut. That form looks weak and I personally don’t see him getting the better of #10 SCANDINAVIA over this extreme distance. The yard is flying, though.
Key Contenders
#2 AL RIFFA interests me. He was by far the best of these over shorter distances – he finished fourth in the Hong Kong Vase as recently as December – and everything he does suggests he might be a top-class stayer. He was hugely impressive when winning the Irish St Leger last season and things haven’t gone right for him over staying trips since. He was given an atrocious ride out in Meydan and really should have won last time too in the Group 1 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier, as he was held up well off the pace and was storming home at the line. He might not get this extreme distance but shapes as though he could improve for it and he should get a good trip.
He couldn’t quite reel in #3 CABALLO DE MAR in that Longchamp race but that form still reads well as he is closely matched with #5 SWEET WILLIAM, who in turn has little to find with #6 TRAWLERMAN on their best efforts. They’re both talented but relatively exposed.
Interesting Outsiders
#7 CARMERS won the Queen’s Vase here last season and ran well next time out in the Great Voltigeur. He was beaten by #10 SCANDINAVIA on his next two starts but the ground was probably a bit soft in the St Leger and he may have needed the run in the Vintage Crop. He returned to winning ways last time out at Down Royal with a strong staying effort and these conditions are his optimum.
16:50 – Britannia Stakes – Heritage Handicap – 3YO only – 1m
Key Stats
British-trained runners have dominated this race, winning the last ten renewals. A double-figure draw has won nine of those.
Market Leaders
9/1 the field at the time of writing for a race that is as hard a puzzle to solve as you are ever likely to find.
#3 ORGANISE is one of those 9/1 shots and hasn’t done a lot wrong in three starts, including last time when running well behind #7 LAUREATE CROWN in a handicap at Sandown. He’s been gelded since then and has cheekpieces applied, which should help, but he’s a forward going type from a moderate draw with plenty of weight, so I’d be inclined to give him a swerve.
Similar comments apply to #10 WE’RE GOOSERS, who bolted up at Newmarket last time out in a small field having always been close to the pace. This is a very different test up 11lbs and over an extra furlong, which seemed to find him out two back, although he is top rated by Timeform.
Key Contenders
#20 OUTBACK HEAT isn’t far behind on ratings and his profile looks a lot more suitable. He was no match for #3 ORGANISE two back in a Novice, but seemed to improve for hold up tactics and handicapping last time out over course and distance, making a big and sustained move from the rear to win readily. A 6lb rise for that looks manageable and he should be covered up behind the high pace, so looks capable of running big here.
#27 MOONFALL is bred for this by virtue of being a half-brother to Soprano, who won the Sandringham over this course and distance at the 2024 Royal meeting. He bombed out in the Superlative Stakes at the end of last season but looked as though he’d be in for a good year on his return at Chester. He looked unlucky not to finish much closer there, as he was held up out the back off a steady pace and met trouble when trying to make his move. He scorched home under tender handing when in the clear and should step forward for that run. This mark looks well within his range based on that effort and his running style, and draw, look optimal.
#7 LAUREATE CROWN is improving and showed a good turn of foot to pick up #3 ORGANISE last time out. He’s got the right jockey for this type of test in Jamie Spencer and has a course win to his name having scored on debut here last year. He’s won both starts since being gelded despite suboptimal setups and looks tailor made for this contest.
#11 WECHAAD ran well in Group 3 company as a juvenile and shaped as though needing the run on his seasonal debut in a competitive handicap at Goodwood. This keen, hold up sort was drawn wide there but lands a better post here with lots of pace to shoot at, and that should see him step forward.
Interesting Outsiders
#1 PATHEIN was a place in front of #11 WECHAAD last time out and may confirm that form. He ran very well at Group 3 level last season and looked like he needed the run in a Conditions race at Goodwood on his seasonal debut. He plugged on well in a handicap at the same course last time, having had to wait for a run, and should enjoy going back up in trip on this more conventional track. He gets a nice jockey upgrade, although he does have to concede weight all around.
#12 RICHIE’S ROCKET also ran in that Goodwood race, staying on well considering he had run such fast splits through the mid part of the race. That was his first run since being gelded and I expect he will come on plenty for that. He looked a very promising sort on his first two starts and may be ready to fulfil that potential now, with his draw and running style very much looking set to suit.
#21 ST ANTON isn’t rated far off the best of these and comes here on the back of two wins at lower levels. The penny is dropping slowly for him and he’s got a nice low weight. He’s well drawn and has the right running style for this, so it’s easy to see him hitting the board at big odds.
#29 JAMESTOWN’S run two back has worked out really nicely and he shaped just about best there for me, with the splits having him and the winner, Bobby McGee (was due to run in this but is a non-runner), clear of the field. That rival has gone on to be rated 93, so a mark of 90 for #29 JAMESTOWN looks workable and he showed himself in fine fettle with an 8-length romp in a maiden last time out. He should be well positioned here from a high draw and have the race run to suit.
17:35 – Hampton Court Stakes – Group 3 – 3YO only – 1m 1f 212y
Key Stats
No strong trends for this race. All of the last ten winners have been 7/1 or shorter in the betting.
Market Leaders
#3 ENDORSEMENT comes out top on ratings and looks to be improving at the right time. He ran well in two Derby trials – including when narrowly beaten by the Derby winner Christmas Day in the Ballysax – and made short work of overmatched opposition in the King George V Cup at Leopardstown last time out. I’m not sure that he wants this trip on fast ground, and leading on the rail might also be a negative which is enough to put me off at the prices, but he’s undoubtedly the form pick.
#6 ITALY looked a potential superstar on debut last year but things didn’t really go right for him after, although he still ran some excellent races at Group 1 level and was rated above #3 ENDORSEMENT as a juvenile. He finished behind that rival in the Ballysax but ran a lot better than the result. He was held up there in a race that favoured speed but put in some excellent splits on the worst part of the track before levelling off a little bit close home. All of the main hold ups in that race have come out and run well since – James J Braddock and Pierre Bonnard finished 1-2 ahead of #3 ENDORSEMENT next time out and A Boy Named Suzie finished 4th in the French Derby – and there’s nothing between #6 ITALY and #3 ENDORSEMENT based off the sectionals in that race. #6 ITALY hasn’t been seen since, a minor worry, but he might have been laid out for this and a wide-drawn hold up horse is exactly what you want here.
Key Contenders
#2 OXAGON was just about the best of these as a juvenile and looked like he’d developed into a serious tool when dominating the Craven Stakes field on seasonal debut. He might have left his race behind there when only sixth in the 2000 Guineas and could only finish 12th of 16 in a weird renewal of the French Derby last time out. Claims on his best form but a bit to prove now.
#8 MORSHDI’S win in the Feilden Stakes hasn’t worked out and he’s since run moderately in the Dante.
Interesting Outsiders
#4 GENERIC was no match for Constitution River at Chester last time but he’s since won the French Derby and is arguably the best 3-year-old colt around right now. The sectionals of that Chester run show #4 GENERIC is almost certainly a better horse than Golden Story, who has since won a Listed race, so there’s reason to believe he might run well, particularly as he should be much happier at this more conventional track.
#10 MY LOVE IS KING shaped well behind Derby runner-up Maltese Cross on his seasonal debut and seemed to get outstayed by a decent rival in the Listed Newmarket Stakes last time out. He might do better here ridden with more restraint.
18:10 – Buckingham Palace Stakes – Handicap – 3YO plus – 7f
Key Stats
Not a huge sample to go on here but draws of 24 or higher than won five of the six renewals of this race.
Market Leaders
Another extremely difficult contest where they bet nearly double figures the field.
#14 COSI BELLO has always promised a big score and ran very well over a mile at this meeting last year. He showed a fine attitude to score on his seasonal debut at Haydock. He should step forward for that and is pretty solid.
#11 BLUE BROTHER looked unlucky not to finish closer in the Royal Hunt Cup last year and hasn’t been seen since. They’ve thrown everything at this one to try and get the best out of him – gelded, new trainer, and new jockey – and he looks to have been targeted at this meeting.
Key Contenders
#15 DANCE IN THE STORM is better than she was able to show on a biased track at Epsom last time out but could have been drawn better. She’s top rated by Timeform.
#7 ROYAL VELVET has looked a big improver this season, winning a handicap impressively and then following up ridden closer to the pace in a Listed race at Lingfield last time. I imagine she’ll return to hold up tactics from a good stall here.
#28 MEZCALA looks the interesting one to me, particularly given how well Indalo and Ebt’s Guard ran in the Royal Hunt Cup today. He arguably looked the best horse behind them at Newbury last time out, making by far the sharpest move on what was likely the worst part of the track, only to flatten out a little close home as those exertions told. A well run seven-furlongs could prove his optimum and he’s surely better than his mark.
Interesting Outsiders
#26 SO DARN HOT has the right trainer for this race and ran well last time off a tailwind. He should do better here with plenty of cover.
He was behind #9 GREAT ACCLAIM there and this reliable sort was only narrowly denied in a hot race over this course and distance at the end of last season. He’ll enjoy plenty of cover and has strong each-way claims having also run well when fourth in the Challenge Cup, again over course and distance.
#12 APIARIST ran huge to finish one place in front of him in the Challenge Cup despite being stopped at a key stage and looked to be coming back to his best last time out with a luckless run at Thirsk. He flew home when in the clear and has a useful claimer aboard.
