Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Ronilla (Race 3)
Race #1: Selections: 3-5-4
3-Sogno Di Vono did little running in his most recent try, when he was outrun at 41-1, but closed up well for second two-back behind repeat winner Tribal. The Peter Miller-trained gelding switches to Rosario and can bounce back in this spot. 5-Love the Pressure has surrendered pressured leads in back-to-back turf routes, and there looks to be plenty of pace pressure signed on again this afternoon. Hernandez will need to work out a trip. The 1-for-29 4-Bad to the Bones has not been competitive in his last two runs, but sports the best late-pace figure in a field that’s too heavy with frontrunners and could round out the underneath at the bottom of the tris or super at a big number.
Race #2: Selections: 2-1-5
2-Practical Jack broke through in solid fashion in career start number four with a lofty (95) main-track Beyer at Del Mar on Sept. 5 and has improved speed-figure-wise with each subsequent try for trainer Val Brinkerhoff. The gelding has come back to blow out a sharp three panels on Oct. 3 in preparation for this. 1-Carolina Legacy had a 30-point Beyer boost when drawing off by 10 1/4 lengths to break her maiden on Aug. 29 and now goes first off the Mark Glatt claim. The newly gelded 5-Here’s Some More was runner-up in last facing similar and now shortens to six furlongs for Michael McCarthy.
Race #3: Selections: 5-4-1
5-Ronilla finished behind both Caves and Silkie Sevei last time out, but makes her second try off the four-month mini-freshening this afternoon for conditioner Paddy Gallagher and is eligible to move forward in her second turf route try for Van Dyke, who has been riding well. The aforementioned 4-Silkie Sevei (Ire) (beaten favorite in the last pair) has had several close-up finishes and makes career start number 10 today for D’Amato. Perhaps the third try of the current form cycle gets her into the winner’s circle, but she’s hard to trust while likely to attract heavy wagering attention again. The lightly raced 1-Cuban Flame (Fr) finished a close-up fourth after a troubled trip when dwelting at the start in her first Stateside try Aug. 27, and should improve today moving inside to the rail with a better break.
Race #4: Selections: 5-4-2
5-Himari tossed in the towel as the odds-on heavy chalk in start number two for Team Baffert on the stretch after an impressive-looking debut score. Nyquist’s 3-year-old daughter removes the blinkers today, shortening back up to a sprint, and is likely to bounce back. 4-Convo steps up to face winners off a narrow maiden score on Sept. 5 for Sadler and has come back to fire back-to-back five-furlong drills in :59.3. The McKinzie 4-year-old is lightly raced and still offers plenty of upside. 2-Time to Shine was pulled up and walked off the course when last seen back in February but has been training smartly for her return to action for an excellent layoff barn. The Not This Time filly may take to sprinting for Glatt.
Race #5: Selections: 3-7-4
A multiple winner over the track and distance, 3-Corporal Violette (Ire) drops in class today and projects to get a favorable upfront pressing journey with Kimura. This looks like a good spot for the 7-year-old mare to get back to her winning ways. 7-Little Hidden Port (Arg) is one of two from the Sadler barn. This mare rallied for third back on Aug. 2. At this $25k claiming level, she is still looking for her first win at Sateside. 4-Catalina Cocktail was overmatched in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo last time, but this looks like a more reasonable spot for the Sadler mare, who ran an ok third in her lone try over the Santa Anita lawn.
Race #6: Selections: 2-8-6
2-Lucky Sniper was no match for the 18-1 runaway winner, but finished second with a (60) Beyer when dropped to this level on Sept. 19 at Los Al and is a logical win threat for Blacker with a similar effort. 8-Monsieur Big is yet to hit the board in five lifetime tries for trainer Tim Yakteen but drops in for a career-low tag today, moving to two turns on dirt for the first time. Rosario has done well overall, 6 for 16 (38%), when riding for this barn the past three years, and this gelding is eligible to spring to life at this reduced level. 6-Halninethousand finished third behind Lucky Sniper in last
Race #7: Selections: 6-4-2
6-Tiger of the Sea is unproven going two turns, but sports the fastest grass Beyer figures sprinting for trainer Brian Koriner, and this barn has had success stretching horses out in the past. Rosario stays aboard the stretch-out sprinter. 4-Goje didn’t look all that good in a disappointing try last week but puts the blinkers back on this afternoon, switches to Hernandez and projects to get a favorable upfront pressing trip. 2-Green Zone was trounced in her most recent main-track debacle but gets back to her preferred grass footing this afternoon, second off the Dollase claim, and was a winner two-back over Suntory Time.
Race #8: Selections: 7-1-5
7-Iron Sand is by multiple Grade 1 winner Omaha Beach, who is 14% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. This 2-year-old gelding has trained well over at San Luis Rey for his unveiling and lures Hernandez, who is 6-for-16 (38%) with a $3.38 ROI riding for these connections. 1-Fractious (by Volatile) gets the rail draw again after breaking a step slow and rallying for the place spot on debut Sept. 5 for O’Neill and Rosario. He’s dangerous with a better start and any normal second-out progression for top barn. Baltas and Van Dyk teamed up with 11/1 grass sprint debut winner Deucari on Sept. 26. This afternoon the duo have 5-Nomorebuttafingers (by Mo Town), who comes in with some ok local drills, including a sharp five panels on Sept. 26. The juvenile colt could come out firing at first asking.
Race #9: Selections: 4-1-9
The Michael McCarthy-trained 4-Frog flashed good speed off the 11-month hiatus before tiring and settling for runner-up on Sept. 7. She goes two sprints to a route today and should be tough to reel in, second off the bench with Hernandez back for the return mount if showing that same lick routing. 1-Channel Place goes dirt to turf for Team O’Neill while making the third start of the current form cycle. This gray daughter of Liam’s Map broke her maiden over the Santa Anita lawn and can improve today with the rail draw, surface change, and class relief. 9-Heavenly Belle ran an Ok fourth (beaten less than a length) when facing a trio of these gals on Aug. 27 when stepping up to face winners and should appreciate shortening back up to a mile.
