Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Quattro Passi (Race 3)
Race #1: Selections: 1-4-2
1-Dream Seeker makes start number three off a pair of solid one-mile route grass tries for Michael McCarthy and should be all set for a career-best effort this afternoon. The juvenile son of Girvin gets another favorable inside rail draw and keeps Hernandez aboard. 4-Bilksem had a troubled trip, finishing fourth behind the top choice in last for the red-hot Mullins barn and looms as a big threat to the top choice, making his second try around two turns. 2-Hoaxer is one of two from Team Baffert, who is also making start number three. The Charlatan colt had a troubled trip third on debut, then ran a very wide fourth on the stretch-out in start number two. He adds blinkers today and switches to Rosario.
Race #2: Selections: 1-4-5
1-Thermal has speed and the rail for Sadler and kicked away by 5 ½ lengths the last time he was over this course at 6 ½ furlongs back in March. The 5-year-old mare is expected to be hustled along from the fence this afternoon, with Rosario back for the return mount. 4-Paradise City ships west for Saffie Joseph, who has been extremely tough in Southern California lately, and this mare gets some class relief dropping out of the G1 Ballerina at Saratoga. 5-Toaster (by McKinzie) is 2-for-2 for Baffert but gets a serious class test today, stepping up to face older gals this afternoon after running a lofty figure off the extended break. She’s lightly raced and still offers plenty of upside.
Race #3: Selections: 1-6-2
Trainer Bob Baffert has half the field of six juvenile fillies lined up here in a race that he’s won 14 times. It’s tough to look past the three bullets he has here. 1-Quattro Passi kicked away by a dominating 9 ¼ lengths in start number two, and this gal has plenty of stamina breeding on the dam side to suggest that today’s stretch out to two turns is well within reach for the daughter of Girvin. Her stablemate 6-Deluge was a rare turf sprint winner for this barn on debut Aug. 28 at Del Mar and now moves to dirt for the initial stakes try, and this Maximus Mischief juvenile should only improve with the surface switch and additional real estate. The runner-up that afternoon came back to win. 2-Holmby (by Corniche out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare) is already a graded stakes winner for the barn, taking the six-furlong Sorrento (G3) two-back, and is another bred to excel going longer.
Race #4: Selections: 1-4-2
1-King’s Ride exits a better-than-looks fifth-place finish on Sept. 5 when moved back to turf for trainer Craig Lewis (beaten less than two lengths) and is eligible to improve today, third try of the current form cycle. 4-Owl angled out and fell a neck short when facing a couple of today’s returning rivals in the aforementioned Sept. 5 five-furlong event and looks like the gelding to beat this afternoon with Rosario back aboard. The Sir Prancealot 4-year-old broke his maiden over this turf course by 2 ¾ lengths back in mid-June. 2-Mo Diamantes was a sharp maiden winner on debut at 5-1 for Mike Puype despite breaking a step slow, and looks well-placed for his first crack against winners. He’s worked three times since the Aug. 15 winning unveiling.
Race #5: Selections: 2-4-5
2-Angel’s Ember flashed solid early zip before tiring and settling for third in an encouraging debut on Aug. 16 at Del Mar for conditioner Antonio Garcia, and the juvenile colt by Smokem should move forward in start number two with Hernandez back for the return mount. 4-Empire of Ash drops back down into the straight Maiden Special Weight ranks after finishing fourth in I’m Smokin S. for the Papaprodromou barn and adds blinkers. The gray Pavel colt is dangerous with a better break with the new equipment in place. 5-D’s Four Thumbs Up (by Dad’s Caps) rallied for the runner-up spot with a wide journey on debut for conditioner Aggie Ordonez, but the barn is only 1-for-19 with second-time starters, and this gelding got an uninspiring (30) Beyer. Third choice nonetheless.
Race #6: Selections: 2-7-6
2-Omaha Spirit ships in from Colonial Downs for trainer Wesley Ward and is undefeated 2-for-2. The daughter of Omaha Beach picks up JJ Hernandez for her local Southern California stakes bow. 7-Off in the Corner was a sharp maiden winner on debut for Miller, then could not hold on to a significant lead when stretched out to a mile in start number two in the Grade 3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf. The colt shortens back up today, is nicely drawn outside, and is eligible to bounce back with winning pilot Rosario back aboard. 6-Arctic Wolf ships in from Kentucky Downs for trainer Jack Sisterson, exiting a fourth-place effort in a stake sprint bulky field there, and this son of Frosted has worked well since.
Race #7: Selections: 2-4-6
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the American Pharoah Stakes a record 13 times and should get number 14 today with four of the six juvenile colts entered. 2-Hughes is an undefeated 3-for-3 son of Into Mischief, winning by a combined 18-plus lengths. Hernandez sticks here with the multiple graded stakes winner, seemingly with his choice of some of the others. Two turns should be a non-issue for the ultra-talented colt. His stablemate 4-Imperial Honor (a $725K son of Honor A. P.) kicked away to an eye-catching 5 ¼-length maiden debut win at Del Mar on Sept. 7, earning a lofty (85) Beyer speed figure, and is bred to get better with more ground. 6-Domus was far behind Hughes in the Del Mar Futurity but now stretches out today in start number three and can bounce back with a better trip. The son of Uncle Mo was a runaway sprint winner on debut with a solid figure, so the ability is there.
Race #8: Selections: 9-2-6
9-Saul Elliott hasn’t been out in over eight months for Miller but returns as a first-time gelding with Lasix for a good layoff barn and is likely to come out running off the bench. The 3-year-old has been training steadily over at San Luis Rey. 2-Disko Tribute exits a runner-up try going 870 yards under the Los Al lights but has had solid success sprinting here at Santa Anita (9-1-1-4) and has run par or better for this class level on multiple occasions. Dirt-to-turf 6-Rodrigoknows is 0-for-7 over the Santa Anita lawn but comes off a voided claim 9-1 upset win on Aug. 20 and has the right closing punch in a race that’s top-heavy with speed types to make a late impact with Jaramillo on the turnback.
Race #9: Selections: 5-3-7
5-Tashie has run well in both sprint starts for Antonio Garcia, with a win on debut followed up by a runner-up finish in the Generous Portion S. over several of these on Sept. 4. Hernandez takes over this afternoon and is 4-for-14 overall (31%) with a positive ROI when riding for these connections. 3-You Trust Me rallied for fourth at 40-1 despite a stumbling break when behind the top pick in last and has slowly moved forward in each subsequent try for conditioner Simon Callaghan. 7-Breakaway Babe adds blinkers and is the speed of the speed here. The daughter of Jack Milton got leg weary and started lugging late when she got tired and lost focus when in against several of these in last, but perhaps the equipment change helps her go further.
Race #10: Selections: 1-3-9
The multiple graded stakes-winning 1-Thought Process is 7-for-11 lifetime and a perfect 4-for-4 over the Santa Anita lawn. The 4-year-old daughter of Collected looks to rebound off an odds-on beaten favorite second in the recent Sept. 7 John C. Mabee (G2) behind Medoro and should do just that, making her second start off the bench for D’Amato. The Chilean-bred 3-Dona Clota (Chi) ships west for Saffie Joseph off a pair of subpar efforts in the Glens Falls (G2) at Saratoga and Ladies Marathon (G3) at Kentucky Downs but is 2-for-2 at this 1 ¼-mile trip and can rebound here for a shrewd barn that’s sent over all live runners. 9-May Day Ready is unproven at this trip but is a multiple Grade 2 winner for Mandella and got back on track at Kentucky Downs with a win in the One Dreamer S. (albeit only a two-horse match race), but she looked comfortable doing it, and that prep might have set her up nicely for this.
