Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 6-Aggro (Race 4)
Race #1: Selections: 5-2-3
5-Navy Jack has yet to hit the board in three stateside tries for Miller, but adds blinkers today, drops another notch in class, and makes his third start of the form cycle. The gelding projects to be forwardly placed in a short field that lacks any significant early zip. 2-The Old Nine (Ire) broke through in career start number 10 for conditioner John Sadler and looks well-placed for his first crack against winners. The 4-year-old colt sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (73). 3-Mongolian Altai goes dirt to turf on the cutback and class drop.
Race #2: Selections: 1-5-2
1-Maniae was a solid wide trip runner-up on April 20 when moved up to this level after her maiden score and gets top billing today with a similar effort for trainer Andy Mathis. Her stablemate, 5-Goodnight Nellie, returns off a 2 ½-month freshening after kicking away to a decisive maiden win back in March. The 4-year-old filly has trained well for today’s return to action, including firing a :46.2 four-furlong drill over the local course on May 15. 2-Tiny Prancer adds blinkers back on for a new barn that does well with fresh faces and may be aggressively sent in a field void of early pace.
Race #3: Selections: 6-4-5
6-Sunset Storm rallied for the place spot at 20-1 on the stretch-out on April 25 when finishing in front of several of these, and followed up that solid try with a sharp three-furlong bullet drill on May 16. The 4-year-old gelding sports the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (61). 4-Big Bet stretches back out off an even third-place effort when dropped to this $5k level in last, and deserves another chance against this suspect group. The gelded son of Mr. Big should be forwardly placed. 5-Bruiser ran a better-than-looks-on-paper fifth, exiting the aforementioned April 25 event, and was a solid maiden winner going this one-mile trip two back.
Race #4: Selections: 6-2-7
6-Aggro exits back-to-back runner-up efforts and now goes first off the claim for conditioner Steve Knapp. This barn is 9 for 41 (22%) with a $2.58 ROI the past five years with recent dirt route acquisitions. The 3-year-old daughter of Vekoma will be tough to reel in on the lead with an alert break. 2-Lady Rider stretches out in start number two for Sadler after a slow start in her April 20 debut. She’s by Accelerate (17% with dirt route runners) and bred to improve with additional real estate. This barn’s stock typically improves in their second try. 7-Siempre Naman rallied for third behind Aggro at 26-1 in last, in what was this filly’s best try to date.
Race #5: Selections: 6-5-2
6-Favor to You got up to win by a nose despite traffic problems in a game maiden score on April 19 and looks ready to face winners for D’Amato. Kentucky invader 5-Little Mo returns off nearly a four-month freshening for trainer Peter Eurton and has trained well over the Santa Anita synthetic oval for her Southern California unveiling. The 3-year-old filly attracts Hernandez off the bench. Turf to dirt 2-Proud Starlet returns off a seven-month layoff for conditioner Tim Yakteen and finished third in the short field Anoakias S. behind stakes-winning Practical Joke when last seen back in October. She’s bred to handle grass and adds Lasix today.
Race #6: Selections: 4-1-6
4-Far Over Loaded was no match for Jaguar Jon in the last, but was a clear second at this reduced level as the beaten favorite. A logical fit again at this bottom maiden claiming spot despite making career start number 11. 1-Master Jacques drops to the bottom level and returns as a first-time gelding for trainer George Papaprodromou. 6–Get Your Six flashed speed when in tight amongst a crowded lineup on May 4, and now drops another notch today while making her third start off the bench for trainer Val Brinkerhoff. 3-Pax a Punch is another dropping to a career-low tag today and is a late threat for Knapp off a wide trip journey on May 4.
Race #7: Selections: 1-4-3
A competitive $50,000 one-mile grass route for colts and geldings may come down to who gets the best trip. Class dropping 1-Uncle Happy returns off an eight-month freshening for an excellent layoff barn and has proven he can fire fresh. The gelded son of Runhappy has three wins from seven starts and lures Rispoli off the bench. He figures to trip out nicely from the fence. 4-Beef Winslow didn’t have the smoothest journey when rallying for the show spot in his first start off the year’s layoff for conditioner Mark Glatt, and figures to be a handful second off the bench. The Hector Palma-trained 3-Heart Headed drops in class today and is reunited with jockey Juan Hernandez off an even fifth-place on April 5. He defeated better at 16-1 two back and now drops back down for today’s $ 50,000 price tag—his claiming purchase price from three back.
Race #8: Selections 4-6-7
4-Dorine’s Wild Cat has seen her Beyers improve with each subsequent start since last fall and has been freshened since a career-best (72) number back in March. The Ron Ellis trainee steps up off the break, which is a positive sign. Turf to dirt 6-Princess Del Tigre figures to sit just behind the faster and speedier Smiling Lady today and get first run on the deep closers. The 5-year-old mare makes her third start of the form cycle this afternoon and ran par for this class level when last trying dirt. 7-Garden Party moves back to the main track off turf maiden-breaking score on April 25 for conditioner Leonard Powell. His lone main track debut effort was disappointing, but his sire Clubhouse Ride does get 20% with dirt route prodigy.
Race #9: Selections 4-6-5
The improving 4-Burning Rubber makes his second start off the bench for trainer Sean McCarthy, following a third-place effort at this level on April 25, and is a logical fit with another potential move forward. 6-My Hero has yet to hit the board in five career tries for McCarthy but returns off a two-month freshening and takes his second crack at this reduced $50k maiden claiming level for the winning Preakness jockey-trainer combo. 5-Adebayo crossed the line first but was dq’d to second for lugging in on April 27 and moves back to the grass surface, where he has run well enough for his low-profile connections.
