Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Johnny Podres (Race 8)
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Race #1: Selections: 4-5-1
4-Party On Girl (Ire) rallied well for the place spot to just miss on August 24 and now stretches out an additional furlong while making the third start of the form cycle for conditioner Phil D’Amato. The 5-year-old mare sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (84), and has worked three times since that top effort. Her stablemate 5-Excelia (Ire) is eligible to move forward off a taxing recent fourth-place effort. The consistent 1-Ang N Ash has won two straight going five furlongs, and has hit the board in six of eight career tries.
Race #2: Selections: 3-4-5
The Baffert colt 3-Kalea Bay is the most experienced juvenile in the field, making career start number three this afternoon. The son of Authentic set a fast clip before getting caught late when last seen Sept. 1 and should be all set for a top performance today at low odds. 4-Grinnell goes turf to dirt in career start number two and is likely to show more interest and spunk for trainer Carla Gaines. He’s by hot sire Vekoma, who gets a strong 27% with debut runners and 25% with all his dirt sprint starters. 5-Day and Age (by Omaha Beach) debuts for the Mandella barn off some inspiring a.m. drills. This barn is a solid 6 for 20 (30%) with a $3.73 ROI for the past five years at Santa Anita with dirt sprint debut first-time starters.
Race #3: Selections: 8-4-1
The multiple graded stakes-placed Maiden 8-Spycatcher ran too well off the 11-month layoff to lose on August 31 when settling for second off a brutal journey. The 5-year-old gelding is a logical threat again at short odds but has settled for several underneath finishes in his eight career tries. 4-Rostovsky removed the hood and ran a bang-up race on August 11 when finishing second, which was a solid enough effort for the field’s best last-out grass (Beyer). 1-Running Spartan goes two sprints to a route for the Papaprodromou barn with an improving Beyer pattern and moves inside for his first crack around two turns.
Race #4: Selections: 2-3-7
A beaten favorite in the last pair, 2-Cornell is wheeled back on 15 days rest for Team Baffert and is reunited with winning pilot Juan Hernandez. A tepid vote in this wide-open N1X optional $50k claiming dirt route. The speedy 3-Pony Express drops out of back-to-back stake tries where he flashed good early zip before fading and he should appreciate the class relief today. Blinkers off and turf to dirt 7-Mystic Spirit should fall into a favorable stalking trip behind the pacesetters today for trainer Michael McCarthy. The 3-year-old gelding has won three of his last four starts.
Race #5: Selections: 11-6-1
Despite the outside draw, 11-Toupie has enough speed to work out a good trip under Flavien Prat for trainer Graham Motion. The multiple stakes winner returns off the mini-freshening for her first Southern California start and has run competitive grass figures on the East Coast that match up well here. A recent third in the G1 Del Mar Oaks and runner-up in the G2 San Clemente makes 6-Zona Verde (Ire) the filly to beat this afternoon for D’Amato. She shortens back up to try the downhill turf layout and has proven she can handle it in the past. Grade three winner 1-Dreamfyre hasn’t been out since flashing speed and tiring in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last November but has trained well for today’s return try.
Race #6: Selections: 4-3-5
4-Cloudy Rose attracted decent tote support in her initial Sept. 2 start when finishing an even third. Her sire, G1 winner Tom’s Tribute, won in his second career start. Improvement is likely. 3-Maria Tallchief (by Om) makes her first start for trainer Phil D’Amato off a mediocre-looking work tab but lures Hernandez. There’s a good chance she has some talent. 5-Going Deep ran on well for the place spot in an encouraging unveiling on June 15 and now makes her first start for Team O’Neill under new ownership. The daughter of Bodexpress is eligible to improve substantially in career start number two.
Race #7: Selections: 1-5-9
1-Cabo Spirit has been winless since October 2022 but has speed and the rail draw and should work out a decent journey under jockey Abel Cedillo. The 5-year-old gelding has hit the board in six of eight grass tries over this course and makes his third start of the form cycle this afternoon. A solid gate-to-wire threat at long odds. 5-Dicey Mo Chara finished second in back-to-back Grade two races for conditioner Leonard Powell, earning a (99) turf Beyer in each event. A logical threat again with a similar effort. Of the four Phil D’Amato-trained geldings lined up here, the edge goes to 9-Gold Phoenix (Ire), who exits a sharp victory in the G2 Del Mar Handicap on August 31 over several of these and makes his third start off the bench today. Like several of the top contenders in here, he’ll need some pace to run into, and not entirely convinced he’ll get that favorable set up today.
Race #8: Selections: 1-2-11
A multiple winner over the track and course, the veteran 7-year-old gelding 1-Johnny Podres could post a minor upset here with Rispoli climbing back aboard for conditioner Librado Barocio. This afternoon, he makes his third start of the form cycle off an improving Beyer pattern and will likely get a favorable trip from his inside slot. 2-First Peace shortens up and returns to the downhill layout, where he sports a (2-3-0) record from five tries. This consistent and talented colt posted a (101) Beyer two-back in the Wickerr Stakes. Last year’s Breeders Cup Turf Sprint runner-up 11-Big Invasion arrives from the East Coast for trainer Christophe Clement off a recent score in the Harvey Pack Stakes at Saratoga on Sept. 2. He’ll be flying down the lane with Flavien Prat and is a big threat with adequate pace and clear sailing.
Race #9: Selections: 3-5-1
3-National Treasure should bounce back here as the “speed of the speed” for Team Baffert exiting a subpar effort over the muddy going in the August 3 G1 Whitney at Saratoga. Two back (over a fast race track), the son of Quality Road was a dominating 6 ¼-length runaway winner of the G1 Metropolitan. He’s trained exceptionally well since arriving back in Southern California. His stablemate 5-Muth has won three straight and easily disposed of his competition at short odds in the Shared Belief when returning off nearly a six-month freshening. In four tries, this G1 winner has never finished worse than first or second over the Santa Anita main track. 1-Newgate has been well-rested since his poor effort in the G1 Dubai World Cup back in March. The third of the Baffert trio, this Into Mischief colt is a Grade 1 winner over this strip and will be the highest price of the barn’s three-punch.
Race #10: Selections: 3-1-6
The talented colt 3-Johannes has strung together three straight graded stakes scores and brings a solid 6 for 10 career record into today’s Grade Two showdown. The son of Nyquist sports the field’s best last-out Beyer (103) with his G2 win in the Eddie Read on July 28. He’s trained well for conditioner Tim Yakteen since that dominating performance and is an impressive 5 for 5 over the SA grass course. A G1 winner over this turf course 1-Du Jour should not be overlooked for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Juan Hernandez. This gelding has run extremely well when starting from the rail and was only beaten a short distance when facing a handful of the same rivals in the G2 Del Mar Mile. The 3-year-old East Coast invader 6-Trikari has won four of his last five starts for trainer Graham Motion but faces a tough challenge today meeting older and more seasoned rivals. However, the multiple-graded stakes winner is not short on talent, and his shrewd connections wouldn’t ship him across the country if they didn’t feel he could win this.
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