Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Margot’s Girl (Race #9)
Race #1: 1-That’s Amare has been first or second in 5 of 6 career starts for trainer Phil D’Amato. The 5-year-old mare has the rail; good positional speed and comes off the mini-freshening. Bravo lands here. 2-Unbridled Mary is lightly raced with improving Beyer numbers and ships back west after finishing a non-threatening 5th in the TVG Limestone Stakes at Keeneland. 6-She’s So Nice is the other D’Amato runner drawn outside who also has good tactical early foot and ran well in defeat while facing heavy pressure in last start March 13. She’s also been freshened for this.
Race #2: 7-Tahoma is by Triple Crown winner and freshman sire Justify from the O’Neil barn and shows a strong bullet 4-furlong gate work in preparation for today’s unveiling. Attracts top rider. 1-Fordy G must negotiate the rail draw but looks fast based on morning drills for better than average sire. 2-Crowning Gold has trained well enough for unveiling for barn that’s more than capable to win with a firster.
Race #3: 3-Paid Informant comes off a troubled trip 3rd when returning to turf off the layoff and earned a Beyer figure above par for this level. A move forward will make her tough to look past in here at short odds. 1-Invincibella is a multiple winner over this turf course; draws the rail and should be able to work out a favorable trip. 2-Aloha Kitten is winless since October 2021 but moves inside with good positional speed and will be the better price of the duo represented by Team O’Neil.
Race #4: In a race that’s projected to favor front runners 5-Kelani Kim fits the bill as the likely pacesetter stretching out this afternoon for trainer Mark Glatt. The 6-year-old mare has been plagued by layoff lines but fits well with this group if able to build off April 12 start. 2-Starship Sky is only 1 for 22 but goes turf to dirt in 2nd start off the bench and could improve here for trainer Bob Hess. 6-Here Comes Ralphie goes turf to dirt on the quick turnaround.
Race #5: 1-Busker Allie has been running decent enough against better on grass for top turf barn and was DQ’d from Maiden win 5 races back at Del Mar. Another chance. 6-Classic California debuts in a weak field for trainer Ruben Alvarado who is 4 for 11 (36%) with a $3.65 ROI with first time starters. This filly is by Grade 1 winner Boisterous. 3-Summer Lake earned this fields best Turf Beyer in debut and must be considered a threat if able to improve off that initial outing.
Race #6: 3-Manitowish failed to fire at even money in last but projects to sit a nice stalking trip behind the outside speed today and should rebound. The 4-year-old gelding goes first off the claim for trainer Lorenzo Ruiz who is 5 for 11 (45%) with newly acquired purchases with jockey Payeras onboard. He was a sharp winner two-back with an 82 Beyer. 2-Allaboutthemoney disappointed on the synthetic at GG but is back on the main track today making 2nd start off the claim and cuts back to a sprint. First time gelding 5-Doc Adams takes a sizable class drop off the mini-freshening.
Race #7: The graded stakes placed 2-Flashiest makes second start off the layoff for top barn and should be forwardly placed in a race appearing (at least on paper) to be void of any serious early speed. 4-Cash Equity is the stronger of the D’Amoto pair entered in here and this colt was a strong 2nd in American debut April 16 with the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (89). The other D’Amato runner is the veteran 8-year-old 1-Red King who is the class of this field and a 5-time winner over this turf course.
Race #8: 6-Mongolian Kingdom makes second start off the mini-freshening today for a low-profile barn that’s done well with limited starts and this gelding deserves another chance at this reduced $20k level. He’s likely to reverse the decision when finishing behind 3-King Rob who could not hold on in last when sent on the lead at a mediocre clip. The 3-year-old did, however, earn an above par Beyer number (68) in defeat. 9-Frisco Gold could improve on the stretch-out.
Race #9: 2-Margot’s Girl adds blinkers for career start number two and gets key rider change to Hernandez today. She had a tough trip in debut and will likely move forward at a nice price. Trainer Craig Lewis is 5 for 9 (56%) with a $10.33 ROI with second time starters adding this equipment change. 9-Smiling Molly goes dirt to turf in second start after showing good gate speed in 4th place debut try. 1-She’s a Joker took some solid betting action in April 17 debut when finishing a wide closing 3rd. Improvement likely in second career start.