A busy week around here. First, PTF and JK talk about stakes races this weekend. Then Pegasus contest winner Preston Simms comes by to talk about how he took down more than $300,000 last weekend. Finally, our old friend Scott Gramling is here to talk about the game on everyone’s mind this week — the Super Bowl.
To check out my latest column on the Derby trail, simply head over to At the Races.
Now, on with the show:
Prefer to read it? See below.
***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***
Hello and welcome to the, in the money players podcast. This is the Friday, February 1st edition show number 11. I’m your host, Peter Thomas foreign, a towel back with you in the Brooklyn bunker joined for the first part of this show and the last part of this show, but not the middle part of this show by a man, you know, in love.
He is the people’s champion, Jonathan kitchen. What’s up JK. At the open right there. You heard Pete giggle a little bit because I told a good joke. So next time you see me at the racetrack, ask me and I’ll tell you what it was, but it’s almost clean enough to put at the end of the credits, but I’m not going to do it this time.
All right. First of all, have to start off. I’m going to ask you for some advice, JK last night. I sent a couple of tweets. I wish I didn’t send. When you make a mistake on Twitter, do you delete tweet? I’m inclined not to. I’m inclined just to say, Hey, that’s where my head was at at that time. And I’m going to leave it there, even though I regret doing it.
Where do you stand on the whole? Do you delete a tweet? [00:01:00] It just depends. I guess the biggest issue I think is like, and I’m think you’re going to address it now is like if the tweak. Is misconceived. So people think you meant something else than what you meant. I mean, a couple of years ago, in fact, this is almost a year a union.
I had to tell someone to F off and I don’t regret it cause I really meant it. But, but if there’s a misconception for what you’re trying to say, then maybe clarify it or maybe delete it. I mean, whatever you, well, I’ll tell you the story and then you can tell me, so basically. It was a classic case of talking out of school and then that led to, to confusion.
Right? So I sent a little thing about being angry at a certain decision of a certain ex-employer, which unfortunately people took to mean, uh, my own lack of a current. Freelance relationship with our old pals at DRF. That is not what I was reacting to. I can’t talk [00:02:00] about what I was reacting to. So therefore I should have kept my mouth shut.
It was a moment of peak as for our situation. I mean, I can honestly say so a couple of weeks into this new gig, this is where we were meant to be all along. Absolutely. That’s not just talking again. Very grateful to the opportunities at DRF. No doubt in my mind, it was time to move on. It was probably time to move on a year ago and the wonderful response we’re getting from the market in terms of the sponsorship conversations suggest that’s right as well, really no bad feelings about them.
Ex a couple of recent decisions that will be discussed in a future show. So with that being the dynamic. I got to read the tweet again, but I love Jay . I like Marty muggy. I don’t know Mike well personally, but I think he does a good job if I’m leading someone else. Well, I apologize. You’re leaving out like 20 people, right?
Part of the, the, the tweet said like, maybe [00:03:00] like unfollowing everyone from that situation, which that could maybe be confusing. Yeah, I was angry. I was angry. I said it was silly. I shouldn’t, I shouldn’t have said it. Well. I mean, you should, but you should clarify nothing to do with the people that work there.
Correct. There are so many good people among the rank and file. Obviously, I still look at the thing every day. I use their PP products. I’m not anti them at all. I’ve just seen some decisions at the corporate level. Again, accepting myself. I am in a better place. They did me a favor, but there’s some other people for whom I don’t think that’s the case.
And I find it very obnoxious, uh, the way that the company’s going about business, you can like a place in like the work and like the people and still be angry at the company. But you’re right. That was probably where it went too far. Anyway. Enough about that? Just wanted to clarify. And thank you to so many people sent me notes, just, you know, either supportive or are you okay?
That kind of thing. The phone has been blowing up and thank you [00:04:00] to people who are concerned. And with that, we’re going to move on to this week’s episode in earnest. And we’re going to start by looking back at a performance from last weekend that we didn’t get a chance to talk about. And that is the performance of hidden scroll in the maiden race on the undercard of the Pegasus.
This was a blow away. Good performance to me even more so, because we don’t expect a bill, Matt, first time starter to come and break like that. Especially from a gate where half the horses in the world seem to break slow. The figure came back, unbelievably strong. It justify like one Oh four. Now, granted, there are some opinions out there that maybe the inside was a little better.
Maybe speed was good on the track, but I have to believe that being in Belmont’s hands and presumably doing that all on his raw talent, he will have more in the tank as continues to work with the horse. I see him as a serious player on the triple crown trail [00:05:00] and at the 14 to one being offered over there.
I think there’s worse ways you can go in the Kentucky Derby market. Your thoughts. Phenomenal. He was, he was unbelievable. He was, the race was over at the three eights. It was over it. The three eights. It was a little bit sneaky that he was eight to one. If it is the Mo barn, he trains at pacing. So those are all things that can lead a horse like that to drift to eight to one, right first on debut drew down on the rail, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
There was like two, Chad’s a Todd, there’s a bunch of stuff going on. It can lead to the eight to one. You say drift to me, the horse was bet was 12 to one on the morning line bet down to eight. Here’s what I’ll say. The surface is obviously concerned. We’ll talk about that. When we’re handicapping these races, these races, these big performances that are run on sloppy tracks.
You have to take them with at least a grain of salt, because you don’t know if the move the horse up. You don’t know if the figure was hard to make any figure. Maker will tell you that the changing surface like that is complicated. Here’s what I will [00:06:00] say. It took a really long time for someone to beat the Apollo curse and whether it was a curse or not.
It was a, it was a situation of just saying a late developing horse is just, it’s just too hard to get them ready for that. If you’ve got to pick any trainer in the world to break the curse, based on his training style, it would be the guy out in the West coast with white hair. If you pick the guy that’s most likely to do it, it’s the guy.
The trained, uh Yoshida and cigar and all those other guys and bill Mott, I think it’s going to be a huge ask. And I don’t think that that bill is going to actually crank the horse the way that you would think that maybe a Baffert would to get him ready for that interest. Let’s see what happens in the next race.
He’s definitely talented. If I could bet on him to win the Travers right now, I would. But the Derby is going to be, it’s gonna be a quick ask. Would you sell the 14 to one? In other words, would you lay that bet to me? Or are you in the hold camp or you would do nothing? Let me do my favorite thing, which is asking a question to answer your question with a question.
What’s his price. If improbable doesn’t lose again, and [00:07:00] if, uh, improbable doesn’t lose again and then hidden scroll wins. The rest of the race is one of these six to one, seven to one on Derby day. Yeah, I, it’s hard to see him being much shorter than that. Realistically, you know, there’s going to be 20 horses, you know, there’ll be various flavors of the month.
So with that in mind, that makes it, but that didn’t answer the question of sell versus hold. Well, I wanted to get your answer there and then make my decision. I would sell. Okay. May have to make a little wager here. Things got to go. Right. And I think that if, if you, if you were, if from a real bookmaking standpoint, if you were exposed to the 14 to one.
I feel like , there’d be lots of options for you to, to lay off some of that action and other areas where you weren’t as exposed, uh, come the first Saturday in may. Yeah. He was bet somebody knew something about this horse. It seems to me, or, or made a great impression in the paddock or something. Because to me, this is what I would have just assumed would have walked out of there.
And [00:08:00] then that surface would have really worked against him. It’s a terrific point you make about. Potentially tricky figure to make on the service. It’s coming back everywhere in the similar range and very strong, very, very interesting charge. I like your idea for the Travers. Unfortunately, there’s no such thing that I can tell anyway of a Travers future book, but we’ll keep that in mind.
Maybe we’ll see if we can get some of our friends, friends from across the pond production meeting in inside the show. And I’m like, I told you this shit, uh, Paul Matisse, we were hanging out at Gulf stream and he went on this like. Brilliant. Brilliant. You know, beautiful mind a thing where he does, if you’ve ever seen Paul do it.
It’s great. And he’s talking about this idea and we’ll have to wait until after the NHC. I just want to tease it. We’ll have him on to talk about it, of merging the future pools with the actual tote. So essentially whatever action is taken on the future, on the futures from as far out as you want, you roll it in to the T two [00:09:00] to then adjust the price.
And it’s all one big pool starting way, way early. He explains it brilliantly. We’ll have him on to talk about it. It’s really something pretty interesting. That sounds incredible. And not. That dissimilar to some of the stuff Pat Cummings has talked about in terms of the, some of the technology that’s out there to take money from different pools.
And I don’t quite understand it, but a way to tie liquidity together in a way that could be very beneficial, both to horse players and the industry. We’re going to have Pat on actually on Monday, not to talk about that, but to talk about the new white paper that’s going to be coming out from. The thoroughbred idea foundation, looking forward to that as well.
All right. I think we have talked enough about hidden scroll for now. We’ve got so much handicapping to do JK that I think we should dive right in. I think we should it start East and North and work our way. Around the horn [00:10:00] as it was, let’s start off with the grade three Withers. This is a race where I was happy to take a little bit of a shot at a horse, I think is going to be a halfway decent price, at least with our brain trust.
The six privately purchased since the last race. Now in the hands of Mark Kasey, I was thinking would get a pretty good trip in here. I think that form from the Jerome may work out to be okay. That’s where I was going in a race where I had some questions about the favorites. I did write ups by the way, on all these races, I’ll post a link in the blog.
You can also find them over at the, at the races.com website. In the UK, but you can access it from anywhere in the world. Of course. Your thoughts on the Withers. I wanted to pick lucky Lee and I think lucky Lee makes a little bit of sense. I’m a little bit worried about the speed of not that Brady, uh, drawn outside a little bit of a hunch play leading into the, to the, uh, to the super [00:11:00] bowl there.
And then Moretti is a horse I’ve been trying to beat, you know, he’s a half the battle of midway. I tried to beat him on debut. He fi he comes back and runs well. I think that he actually could close into something here. It looks like there’s a lot of pace tax is going to be kind of over bet. He could probably win this race was really, really hard for me.
I think all of those horses that we’ve, that I’ve named can win the race, but for whatever reason, I just, my eyes kept going to admire for Dale Romans. And just like being one of those, those horses that hasn’t run since November. And then he’s been training down in South Florida, but then Dale decides to put them on the, on the plane and to run them in this race.
He’s got Eric, can’t sell these. I’m a big fan of, I just feel like at a price where all of these horses are going to be bet. And we’re still trying to figure out who they are. Give me the long one. Uh, this is not a race that, that, that I would be able to throw a lot of money at. Cause I don’t have the strongest opinion, but I’m going to use admire a little bit, write a pretty good number back.
It Churchill when he broke his maiden. And I think that there’s an opportunity here for this horse to probably pick up some pieces. He’s [00:12:00] maybe a key underneath, I’m not singling and pick fours or anything. And I would probably lean elsewhere. Cause I think he’s, he’s so long in a contest, but, uh, admires the one that I’m going to pick for fun here and a horse that I think can absolutely get a piece.
If you made me pick someone else, I would go with lucky Lee. Your old friend horologist returns at Gulf stream park on Saturday. First race we’re going to look at, there goes as race. Number nine. It’s the forward gal. Three-year-old fillies seven. Furlongs on the dirt. Curious if you’re going to go back to the, uh, the horologist route in this one.
I thought this was just another case of it’s Chad Brown’s world and we’re just living in it. Feedback looked very, very strong. Eye-popping at Saratoga has had a ton of time since makes the return to the races here. I believe she’ll be ready and very tough to tack I can’t pick horologists. It’s such a mean name to name, a Philly.
Um, someone who studies the keeping of time. [00:13:00] JK, we went over this, the last show. Well, that’s not what it sounds like. One of my favorite things to do. And you know, I’ve talked to our friend, Jack Jenkins. It’s about this as a, it’s a Duke Matisse thing that Duke taught me, just hanging out at the racetrack.
When you can find these horses and Phillies, mayors, cults, whatever that from their two year, when they’re two years old, they run numbers that are competitive to what these horses are running than the race they’re running. Now, as three-year-olds, there’s a lot of opportunity there. Feedback is one that’s going to be pretty tough based on how well she ran at Saratoga.
A really long break though, which is a little bit concerning, but I’m sure Chad will have it ready to rock. She’s the most likely winner I’m going to play around with bye-bye Jay. Uh, the, the, the figure back in December at Gulf stream was pretty good. Uh, ran well that day gets Johnny Velazquez. Obviously I’m not hurting anyone’s feelings.
When I would say that’s a rider upgrade when you’re talking about a hall of Famer like Johnny, I think that horse could be interesting. I’m a little bit concerned what the price is going to be. I would assume that one will probably end up being the second choice. I don’t really want the second choice if the first choice is that [00:14:00] much more likely.
I just give me the first choice, but I do think that she offers a little bit of value and she’ll be my pick, but by no means, am I fading feedback? I’m just looking for something a little bit more interesting and creative here. Let’s move on to race 10, the swale, the boys equivalent of the forward gal.
You could say I was gonna land on call Paul in this spot. Has the back class cut back projects. A great trip. Seems like one. They tried to get to go longer. Found that didn’t really stay the, the mile back at seven. Furlongs where he succeeded last time it looks like all systems go to me. Where did you end up?
Yeah, of course. I mean, I use the horse. He’s called Paul used high crime. They both make sense based off their last races, call Paul the most likely winner, uh, on the Ford in of that seven furlongs. But we’ve talked about this in the past. How, how, how much buzz there was around topper T leading up to the breeders cup, the private purchase, the confidence of, of Mont to throw that [00:15:00] horse in that race with those horses and the two, two turn experiences going on kind of the wet ish waster, uh, stricken tracks.
Haven’t gone so well. But, you know, maybe the cutback is what this horse is looking forward at a huge price. Uh, the rider changed the Javier once again, no knock on flow or Tyler gasoline, but you’re getting Javier Castillano hall of Famer in his own. Right. That is a rider upgrade. I think topper T could be a little bit interesting.
I don’t think you’ll get the 15 to one, but I think he could come running late, especially if high crime call Paul and some of the others hookup you’ll have a whole seven furlongs to do it. And maybe the one turn is what he’s always wanted. Race 11 is the Holy bull grade two prep race for the triple crown series.
Of course, Jackie, I’ll let you go first on this one. Oh, this is the start of my, uh, of my favorite parades. So don’t get, no, I don’t want to be mean tweets here. I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know. I think max is mischief is just the better of all these horses. Uh, me hosts obviously makes sense.
I think he got a little bit of a setup last time. [00:16:00] Uh, was right where he wanted to be on that racetrack Max’s mischief is the one I think is the most likely, uh, the horse that I would pick for favorite name in the race is obviously Harvey. Did we give the recipe last time? Wasn’t there orange juice and Galliano involved me host is the pick for me.
I agree with what you said about Maximus mischief being a bit more likely. But when I look at Maximus mischief, I do see a horse who’s been able to boss races in a way that I think will be trickier here. Me hosts. Yes, I suppose technically it was a setup, but he also did make a move into the hottest part of that pace that makes me give a little extra credit along with the idea that another setup may be on offer here.
Me hosts for me. In the Holy ball PTF. One of the things I struggle with when it comes to horses like me hoses, I remember not specifically, but I remember landing on me hosts in his last race based on value and not really liking the other [00:17:00] horses in the race. When, when I, when I land on a horse like that and that horse wins, I hate betting them back because I only landed on them because of the situation they were in that day.
I prefer to Al bet a horse back and stick with a horse that I loved on the day. No matter what the circumstance was, no matter what the price was. And that’s kind of how I feel about meals, which is kind of holding me back a little bit. Fair enough. Um, we’ll see what plays out down in South Florida on Saturday, speaking of Saturday, and speaking of the track, we’re about to talk about Santa Anita telephones.
What you’re doing this weekend. My man. Yes. Yes, I am. I’m going to do TQ show, which is, which is the first honor, anytime TQ, as you want. It’s a lot of fun. I don’t know if you know this PTQ has moved to the XB TV studio. He’s no longer out there, uh, outside, which was a little bit sad. I thought there’s a lot of charm to being out there, but now he’s in the studio with the screens in the background and all kinds of stuff.
So I’m gonna do TQ show on Saturday before the race is covering all the Santa Anita [00:18:00] stuff. And then, uh, it’s going to be the debut show, this new Fox sports thing Saturday at the races that they’re doing, I’ll be on with Greg Wolf and Paula Duca. And, uh, it’s a situation that I’ll be involved in for, for the rest of the year.
Uh, unless I do something to make somebody mad. And so I’m looking forward to that should be a lot of fun. And, uh, don’t you worry? I got a little, I got a little, little snazzy jacket. I’m going to hit them with it. I’m going to have to get dressed a little, I don’t have to get dressed, but I’m going to get dressed a little bit here.
So, uh, Shouldn’t be fun. We will be watching. We will be taking screenshots. Memes will be made the rise from obscurity, I think is now completely. Okay. Well, I appreciate it. Thanks for talking to me for two hours. Uh, uh, about four or five years ago. Oh, you would have found your way to the big screen. And hopefully this is just the beginning.
Speaking of things we can’t really talk about at the moment. Some exciting things in the offing for the world HorsePlayers tour as well. And hopefully we will continue to be a [00:19:00] part of the on air crew there more to come on that as we know it. So folks can tune in Fox. What time is the broadcast? So folks can set their DVRs.
It’s on Fox sports too. So Fs to make sure you set your DVR is obviously anytime they’re going to put racing on TV, you want the ratings to be good. So they’ll continue to do it. Uh, Fs two, I believe it’s at four Eastern, uh, double check on your DVR, double check your local listings or whatnot, but, uh, and we’ll also tweet about it as well, but I believe it’s at four Eastern.
Uh, they’re going to cover, uh, I think the weathers that they’re going to do this stuff from Gulf stream, a little bit of Oaklawn and then also the two steaks out at, yeah, super cool. And the first steak we’re going to talk about is the Bob Lewis. We stay on the triple crown trail. And ha ha, I’m gonna cut you off in the parade of favorites with my, uh, float.
I don’t see them beating mucho Gusto to you. No, I try to get cute and beat and probable with them last time. So I’m surely not going to [00:20:00] ignore him here. I fell in love with Joe Talimba when he wrote, I want revenge. One of my favorite first horses, when I started getting into this game, his ride last time on, uh, on, on, uh, mucho Gusto was not the sharpest.
Uh, I’ve never written the Los Alto, uh, dirt course before. But I even know that the inside is not where you want to be. And for some reason, he found himself down there for a majority of the race while facing a superior horse. He’s drawn outside this time. I think he’ll be long gone. He’s one of my favorite plays of the day at a very short price, but what’s wrong with, uh, what’s wrong with signaling a little bit in some, in some multi-racial stuff.
It’s to start at a late pick five out there. Let’s move on to the sand pass. Squall race. Number nine at Santa Anita. You kick this one off JK. I mean, obviously I’ve banged on my chest about how much I like McKinsey and how good I think he is. It’s Baffert so I’m not overly concerned about the fact that they decided to skip this Pegasus with him.
I think it’s actually a smart decision that would have been, felt a little bit rushed. That ownership group, uh, with Mike peg [00:21:00] rumors is very in it for the longterm. So I don’t see a problem with Baffert saying, Hey, look, let’s win the next one. So I think what happened with this horse? So they’re going to just take their time.
You know, and just kind of ease him into the season, have some fun with him this summer, or maybe even Dubai. I think McKinsey should be tough. I want to see some workout report feedback on him. Dabs, Thur, and battle of midway. Just kind of seem like the same horse. Uh, at least they’ve been right there with each other in their last couple races with each other.
I’m going to lean McKinsey here. And let the other two beat me, just cause I think he’s that talented. And if you’re playing multi race bets and you use more than one in here, you’re probably going to end up upside down at the end of the day with your ticket, whether you cash or not. I think McKinsey is just too talented, but I want to double-check what’s going on with him?
I think that’s smart. I don’t really have anything to add. Checking the workout report. I would not have a problem leaning on McKinsey if the signs are good and I agree for various reasons, it might’ve made sense to skip the Pegasus and take this easier test. [00:22:00] Let there be a B minus in the workout report and I will go in a different, and you’re most likely other direction.
If you want to hit that note. I don’t know, like Powerball or something. I don’t love the race. Right. I just don’t, I think dumpster and battle of midway. If someone can tell you that they can separate the, maybe at a mile of 16 to get separated, but a mile and an eighth, I feel like it kind of is good for both of them.
I really, I mean, I’ll, I’ll lie, but I don’t really have an opinion there. It’s tough to me. It’s a, it’s a, it’s a single McKinsey. Or single someone else or skip the race. If you use more than one in this race, you’re upside down on value. Interesting. You wanted to make a point about how your opinion of evolves from the time we record our show to the day itself.
I don’t know, had someone criticized you about this or is it just something that you wanted to get off your chest? Not that he was already sending it to me about it. I’ve seen other people do it to other people where they like, you know, they handicap it, pick a horse and then they do something different on the day.
You know, it it’s, it’s hard to handicap [00:23:00] that far in advance. Okay. One, I don’t know what the is going to be like. I mean, they canceled all the turf races for Saturday. So obviously the racetrack is going to be different than in my brain when I’m picturing it as. Um, also biases begin to develop throughout the day.
And the handicapping process is one in which you, you get new information as you go along. You know, I, I don’t want to run into, uh, my buddy Ryan Exline who owns giant expectations. And he tells me that the horse is doing unbelievable and he’s gonna run the best race of his life. Suddenly giant expectations becomes, uh, a little bit more of a use with that inside information from the barn.
The other thing is, you know, just like in anything in life, you look at it long enough, your brain starts to tell a different story. So I don’t want people to think I’m like misleading on Friday. I do something different on Saturday. I mean, but, uh, so I just wanted to throw that disclaimer out there. So I don’t have to smack anybody out of this.
I’ll throw in that Ryan X line, he’s the man behind Casa Adria ales. Out there. I think in Santa Barbara, I actually haven’t had a chance to visit yet, but I’m [00:24:00] planning on going. It’s supposed to be very good stuff. And he and I have chatted beer and he’s got a good palette. It has given me some good steers.
So I’m imagining his stuff is pretty good too. I guess the larger point there, JK, we’re not misleading you at all, ever on the show. We are telling you what we think based on the information that we have. If new information comes to light, if the prices are totally crazy, If there’s a bias, if there’s information, we may change what we’re doing, it’s nothing personal where that’s just how it goes.
And for you, who’s going to be giving an opinion here and then giving an opinion on TV. I think this is why this came up. You might say something different on TV by that time, then you’ve said here, and you want it to sort of clear the air about why that is. Absolutely. Yeah, absolutely. And especially with the workout reports in California, they don’t come out to the night before.
I think the DRF one comes out a little bit early. Um, but I’ve kind of already expressed that like my, my, my main California workout report is Andy Harrington’s national turf. That [00:25:00] one comes out like the night before at 9:00 PM. So like, if you’re on the East or West, you know, if you’re on the East coast, so it’s like, I need to see that first, like that’s my biggest adjustment.
Maybe, maybe someday we will have a way to offer real time handicapping information. This would be a down the line thing, but as our blog continues to grow as this new business that is in the money, media continues to grow. Maybe something like that could come to light. Service through something like Patrion may be where if you join the sort of insiders club, you get special missives and a one turn podcast t-shirts and all that exciting stuff where we’re working on some really fun stuff.
We just have too many balls in the air at the moment trying to focus. And right now the focus is this show. And I think you’re going to really like the rest of it. We’ve got two segments coming up first. We’re going to bring in Preston Sims. The winner of the Pegasus contest. [00:26:00] Another of these young guns, young by racing standards, your age, JK 36 years old showing once again.
And I’ll ask him this question later, but I’ll hit you with it for now. Why do we see the under 40 horse players? So, so good. So much success from the younger players in the live bank contests, as opposed to the mythical contest. I think demographically we’ve seen the difference between, say the final table at the NHC and the final table at the world HorsePlayers tour.
Why is it that you young guys do so well? I think we’re drawn to it. Um, based on just kind of like, you know, the, the Mo you know, I don’t want to say the millennial out you’ve word is so overused, but you are millennials. It’s not inaccurate. The information age in which we come from and the, the instant gratification that we come from and the, and the go hard or go home that we come from.
I just think that that works a little bit better in that play, [00:27:00] but however, you know, the, the, the older guard. Who who made this a thing for us who introduced this to us that were kind of the leaders in getting this done? The Paul Sherman’s, the Palma, TCIs the Dave the, the, uh, the print. Some, the, these guys that came before, I probably left someone out, but I love you that the crystal army that came before us, they kind of laid it out for us.
And this is just where we gravitated towards. And a lot of those guys gravitate towards. To and, and so it’s almost like the, the, the mythical contests have become a means to an end outside of the NHC it’s at stand alone and, and carries its big, uh, big sword on its own interesting stuff. Okay. So we’ve got Preston then at the end of the show, we’re going to have a visit.
I can’t wait for this one. Scott Grambling from DRF sports form, the managing editor there. We used to do that other show on the old feed. We brought him back. That’s going to be great too. Let’s segue to Preston now. And [00:28:00] now I’d like to welcome to the, in the money players podcast, the winner from last weekend’s Pegasus world cup betting championship, Preston Sims.
How are you? My friend. I’m doing well, thank you so much for having me on. I got to start at the beginning here. How did you get involved in horse racing and contests in the beginning? Well, horse racing in general, uh, about seven years old and I went to Remington park, which is my home track, uh, with my dad and just kind of got hooked, hooked on it that way.
Um, as far as tournament goes, uh, my, my current. Boss is a big horse flair and we’re we’re close. Um, and he kinda got me introduced into the tournament and I’ve played in, uh, I think five, four or five, but I’m playing a lot of them, but I’ve been, I’ve just recently got involved in it, hit the ground running.
Let’s talk a little bit more background. How old are you now? And you [00:29:00] mentioned your boss. What field are you in? Uh, I’m 36 and I am in sales, in their oil and gas, um, service sales. You’re an Oklahoma person clearly with the oil and gas. And you mentioned Remington. Do you still live in Oklahoma? Are you in OKC or where, where are you?
Yeah, I live right in downtown Oklahoma city. Um, I’ve been here pretty much my whole life minus a couple of just short stints, uh, outside of, of the state. But most of, most of my life I’ve been in Oklahoma city. Very cool. That’s amazing to have such success in such short order when entering the tournament world, where did your tournament situation begin?
Were you playing online? Did you start with live events? Give us a little bit more on that. Yeah. Um, a few small, just online, just, just the picking trays. I did a few of those just to, just to mess around. And then my first real live money term, it was the Del Mar I did the Del Mar one, [00:30:00] uh, this year. And, um, it w what I saw on that one was the guy who wanted, had 7,000 going into the last race.
But it all went on one horse and one the whole thing. So I was okay, well then the year before, and at Pegasus, I wasn’t playing in the tournament, but I was there and I saw Eddie old sec go all in the last race and win it. So I thought maybe there’s something to that angle. So that’s, that’s really kind of, I wanted to have, make sure I had some or, or a good bankroll going into the last race.
I didn’t have quite the bankroll I wanted, but that was my goal. Going into this let’s recap a little bit. What happened to you this year? It sounds like your strategy obviously was to wait until the end preserve enough. Bankroll. Did you have many peaks and valleys on the first day and into the second day, or were you pretty much betting minimums and just trying to get to the last, with a chance to survive.
The first day, I didn’t do anything crazy at all. I, my goal was to have [00:31:00] 12,000 or more going into Saturday and I hit the last double of the day. I rad was on the sixth horse and I hit it and I, it got me to 12 six. And so I felt pretty good about where I was at it after day one. I think I was somewhere in the top 40, so I was like, okay, I got, I’ve got a decent, I’ve got an okay bank road.
So at least make a few. Decent place tomorrow and try to have somewhere in the 20 20,000 range is whatever my goal was going into the lab, what I wanted to be going into the last week. And how does it play out in real time? In real time, I had 5,800 going into the last race. So not, not exactly what I wanted, but I got a couple keys that I thought had a shot to win.
I’m a big daily double player. I love the doubles. Um, and that was, and I, I had keyed fire key, pretty big thinking, stretching out from the six for a long would, would come running and he did, but just ran third. And then I, uh, I haven’t made a big, a big double [00:32:00] play with Yoshida and who, you know, ran, ran fourth.
How would it have been different thinking about it objectively? Had you gone into the last race with the bank role you were hoping for, as opposed to the bank role that you went in there with, how would you have played? It actually might actually might have backfired on me because when I, I had to make such a per site.
Play cause I was like, well, if I’m going to try to move up the leaderboard, that’s the goal. I can’t play Sean jock because that’s not going to pay enough. And you’re going to be a ton of people probably would have huge executives with that. So I think I might’ve, I think I would have still played a big, the big try like I did, and I probably would’ve played a large exact, so I don’t know if it, I don’t know if I would have spread more and still hit the same amount or if it worked in my favor to be like, okay, take, take your exact play.
And if you line it up, right, you’re going to get rewarded. And if you obviously don’t, then you’re going to, you’re going to lose your 5,800 and go home. So I don’t know if it would have, I don’t know if it will pan out differently or not. [00:33:00] Let’s talk about the bet you actually made for the folks that have not heard the story already, whether via social media or some of the stuff that’s been written, talk us through your approach to that final wager in terms of both the handicapping side and the betting strategy side, if you would going into the race, I knew.
That I, that I liked city of light and obviously I thought accelerate would probably run well, I knew city of live would probably be my on top and I love seeking the soul as a, as a horse. They could hit the board. I thought, okay. Celebrate was such a peak in peak performance, going into the breeders cup, ran a great race, honest, honest feet, favoring track, still close.
Got there. Uh, then I thought. Missed a little bit of training. I thought, okay, I’m going to go, I’m going to flip it. I’m going to go see a light on top and I’m going to play seeking the soul was my main key running second high. I thought about playing 20, $2,800 straight, exactly three, five with before, [00:34:00] but then I thought, well, I think the tribe’s going to have more value.
So then I just like, okay, I’m going to play city blight on top with the four I’m going to throw in bravado who likes the wet. I’m going to throw in audible, who I feel likes the wet. So you could come, come from off the pace. And then I threw in the 12 because Jose is my guy and I can’t leave Jose out on the lead in anything.
So I threw Jose on a 12 fourth and then put accelerate third. Okay. And, and as it turned out, you ended up hitting, what was it? A $1,400 try? Not too bad. Is it, let’s talk a little bit more about seeking the soul. What was it on his form that made you think he had a chance to run second at that big number?
I just thought and maybe I’m way off, but I thought going into the race that I was like, I love the fact that Johnny V was back on it. And I just thought, I don’t know if this, if these connections that they think they can win it or not, but I think they can think they can run [00:35:00] second or third and catch a night’s paycheck.
So I thought not gonna, not going to rush out of the gate and to sit a good trip, make one run, probably try to pick up some pieces, maybe run second. And then. Lightning strikes and the pace falls apart. Maybe, maybe when it, but I thought more likely would run second or third. So that’s, that was, that was my, and I thought the buyers figured, so that was my thinking on seeking the soul.
It makes perfect sense. In my mind’s eye, looking at the race, I was convinced that Gunawirra. Was going to get the exact trip that, uh, that seeking the soul got, as it turned out, he ended up being closer. How did you look at gunna Veritas? It seems like you left him out completely. What was your logic in doing that?
I’ve, I’ve watched, Gunawirra run quite a few times and it seems like a lot of the time, so far back and doesn’t pick up enough pieces, at least in some of the lesser races. And I just thought ran such a great race at breeders’ cup that maybe there’s a. Subpar effort coming. And, and [00:36:00] once I started doing the math on what I thought I wanted to back, so it was like, I’m going to pick four horses and I’m just going to roll with those four.
And if I get beat, I get beat. I get it. I mean, whatever you think of the bounce theory, the idea of regression to the mean in terms especially of the market after a horse runs so big. It makes sense to maybe take a little bit of a contrarian view against a horse like that, who typically is such a big price once he’s going off at close to single digit odds, as opposed to the one that you landed on seeking the soul at such large odds, I’m definitely picking up what you’re laying down.
As far as that goes. I’m very curious, uh, how you felt during the race, what was going through your head as the field turned for home? Did you have any idea what was in store? I wanted to really take it in, I mean, I don’t, I don’t go to Gulf stream often. It was my second trip. So I was like, my grandma, my whole crew was [00:37:00] upstairs in the, in the, um, Tournament room.
And I was like, I’m going to the rail. I’m going to get poured down rain on I’m going to watch it live because I was like, I’m going to take it in. So I went to the rail, I was standing there and I, and I’m, I’m watching as the race gets ready to start, accelerate does not want to go in the gate. And even Joel, even taps a couple of pushes forward.
I’m like, I don’t know about the race to get this horse to getting ready to run. So I was like, this may. Work against you because you may not hit the board. So they go in the gate, obviously Jose, they break, Jose goes straight to the lead, which is what I thought. And then city of light was in the perfect spot.
So I see. That’s what I see when, when they, as soon as they break and obviously watching them come around, down the stretch, I thought it was like, they’re going to run one, two, you know, that’s the way it looked. And then I see. The full horse cone up the rail and I’m thinking, wow, this is how I picture it in my mind.
I’m like, if the fork and get by the five I’m going to hit, this is going to be pretty good. Sure enough. It comes up, the rail gets it and I’m like, wow, I don’t have no idea [00:38:00] what that’s going to pay. Like I know it’s going to be good, but I have no idea what it’s going to pay. So you had no idea at that point, you’re just thinking, Hey, I’m going to get something here, but I don’t know what I’m going to get.
I mean, if somebody had offered you a, made an offer for your, your stake at that point, I mean, what would you have been happy with and then what did you end up with? I thought, I thought it would take somewhere around 80 to win the tournament. Maybe that was, that was the thought. But then I thought, well, some of these guys in the 20, the 20 to 25 range people made no, no place like at all.
Am I like looking at the board? So I’m thinking there’s people make with some serious ammo that if they hit something, I mean, there’s no telling what the final could be. Uh, so I thought I might get back about. 85 to 90 in that range. I thought that’s probably what I might get back here. That’s when I turned around, walking back through the masses, trying to get back to the room and it wasn’t until I finally stopped at a machine and I swipe my card and hit check balance.
And I [00:39:00] was like, okay, well I paid a lot better. What was the number on the card at that 0.1 57? Because I had had a hundred dollars. I had. 58 5,900 left, right. Or close to it. And I bet the try and then I bet a hundred dollars straight. Exactly. Three four. And then I had a backup, double carried over ending with city of lie.
That was $200 double from the race before. So one 57 was what I had on my machine too bad. At that point. Did you think you probably had it? I thought I was pretty good chance. Um, and I’d heard some people were like, Oh, that’s you, you hit that. Like, I think you’ll win it. Um, and then, but I did hear somebody say, Oh, somebody had a big exact, uh, it’s going to be around the same area.
And I was like, okay, well I guess so. Was that David rink who ended up second, who had the big, he also, uh, was right there in terms of crushing the result in the last race, but D didn’t [00:40:00] quite get to you. What did you get for your trouble? I got, um, a, I got seven one 20 for the, for the wind, from the tournament and then a, uh, Bonus.
I didn’t even know existed was $50,000 bonus for playing on track. So, because I walked up, I said, why is the check so large? And they’re like, Oh yeah, you got a $50,000 bonus. I said, well, I don’t know. I can’t really argue with that. Well, the 50,000 makes sense. I mean, having looked at these things from a world HorsePlayers tourists, Perspective.
Anything you can do to incentivize folks to play on track when there’s an online option, it does make sense to offer that extra money just because those dollars bet on track the so-called golden dollars, the host does so much better from. So the idea was to give people a reason to play from Gulf stream.
And as it turned out, the top three were all playing from Gulf stream. So in that sense it worked, but it is. Notable and funny that a guy from Oklahoma traveled all the way to [00:41:00] Florida and didn’t even seem to know him. Yeah, I did. And I sit around and read the fine print. Cause I didn’t know, work to your advantage for sure.
In terms of your gambling success, does this rate as a number one with a bullet, this ranks as number one, I’ve had some, I’ve had some, uh, Don in. On tickets with some pretty good I’m pretty good rainbow. Like I said, my, my boss is a pretty, pretty big fire at guy. He got fifth last year in the Pegasus, uh, my Collin, but he he’s a, we fit some pretty good rainbows and then Derby actually had a really good Derby.
Um, I ended up catching a $600 straight, exact, uh, justified, good magic and $110 trifle. The Derby was good for me. It wasn’t, it wasn’t comparable, but it wasn’t good for me. Not too bad. You mentioned the rainbows. Do you guys focus on those mandatory payout days or are you seeing some equity in it that escapes me to be playing it day in, day out?
No, we, we played a lot of day in, day out last year. This year we toned it down. Um, more so mandatory days [00:42:00] or, uh, or big carry over days for the most part. Yeah, we didn’t. Too much during the year when it comes to your form study, you’re handicapping. What tools do you use? I am. I’m a huge race free play. I watch, uh, lots of, lots of race replays to try to find, um, you know, a bad trip or, or just the jockey.
Not, not really, I, haven’t not asking the horse for too much or, or some sort of something I can pick out that I, that I think I want to focus on it and look for it. Chance for, um, a better race. And then I read the racing form. I, I, I got caught into looking at the computer stuff for a little while there year or so, but I didn’t have the success I wanted with it.
So I, I pretty much focused just daily racing form and replay. Interesting and racing form wise, you’re looking at formulator or you’re looking at printed. I mean, I would surprise me if a 36 year old was enough of a dinosaur to just use the daily racing form and a pen. I guess that’s what I’m asking. No, no, I’m a, I’m [00:43:00] a digital, uh, DRF digital paper guy.
Gotcha. Oh, that’s interesting. But not formulator, still the classic PPS and digital, and then looking at replays off of there, and then you’re making notes, or do you have the kind of mind where you can keep this stuff in your head? I’m pretty much in my head. Yeah. I’m a pretty photographic memory person.
So I’d, I’d be most of that there and I’ll write some stuff down, but for the most part, it’s, it’s mainly impulse memory in terms of bedding strategy. How do you approach that? I, are you fairly, do you, are you cookie cutter? Do you have certain moves that you try to make in different races or do you vary it depending on the situation?
I vary depending on the situation most I liked, I liked the big doubles and I, and I play lots of pick five. I have a big pick five guy just looked at that. Like I liked the, um, the value in it. I’m more. So I feel like I like to pick five. I love the West coast track, but I liked to take five at gold stream and Caitlin with the four or five payouts, because you know, you can, you can miss the big one, but [00:44:00] still get a pretty decent percentage of your bet back.
With the four or five. So as far as strategy goes, I just kind of look for value. And if it’s, I feel like the value is an exact, a trifecta type of race, and I just have a feel for it, then I’ll play it. Um, but a lot of daily doubles is what is my main focus. What is next for you in terms of tournaments?
Will you be at the NHC next weekend? I will. They actually gave me the option to go to this year or next year. So I said, might as well roll with this year, keep it fresh out of mine. So I will be there. And, uh, I’m leaving next Thursday and I will be there, uh, till Monday. That’s great. I will be doing radio with Steve Beck as part of the, at the races USA, Steve bic.com coverage.
I hope when you have a little stretch where you don’t have that much going on. I hope you come by and talk to us some more because it’s great to have this, uh, young blood such as yourself in the game. Let me ask you this. [00:45:00] I’ve been asking this question all around. We’ve seen in the live bankroll tournaments.
Much more of a youth movement than you see in the mythical money tournaments. We’ve had some youthful players at the final table at the NHC, for example, but I would guess that the median age of the final table at the NHC was 15 to 20 years older than the median age of the final table. Say at the world HorsePlayers tour that I was involved in.
Why are younger players, players such as yourself? Under 40 doing so much better, making so much more of an impact in these live bankroll turns, I would say as maybe access to information as far as, as the further back replays, maybe. And that’s what my guess would be. I don’t, I don’t know. I mean, heard hard question.
I apologize for it. Yeah. I apologize for the question. I know it’s a hard one. I lied. I like, I I’m around a much older crowd. I mean, I was the [00:46:00] youngest guy in my group by, you know, 15 years. But I think, because I think a lot of the older guys stick to the, you know, the guy I know does VCR, race rates replace from Oakland every week.
And I’m like, Hey man, you know, there’s a computer. You can actually click. BCR. What is this? 1982. I mean, come on and he pays $5 a tape and he’s got a VCR and he just got mailed the team every, every, every week is crazy. And I’m like, so maybe there’s a lot of that out there. And so it just takes so much time and they don’t see as many as much of the information, but that’s, I don’t know.
That’s my guess. That’s hilarious. I love it. Well, thank you so much. For your time today, can’t wait to see what happens at the NAC. We’ve seen people parlay one tournament, victory into another. Maybe you’ll be next on the list, Preston, but whatever happens, we look forward to following you in the future and seeing what happens next.
And now I’d like to welcome back to my airwaves for his first appearance on the, in the [00:47:00] money players podcast. Scott Gramling Scott, how are you? I’m doing great, Pete, great to be back. Great to be talking with both of you guys. It’s a time of year super bowl, baby Scott of course, is the managing editor of the DRF sports forum.
You can also find his work in sports illustrated in the new edition or firstname.lastname@example.org. Wherever you go to find it. Scott is one of the people I always want to read when it comes to big games like this thought it would be fun to have him come on here. And button up the old show, which we never really got to have a closing episode of not officially.
We had our closing episode, we just didn’t know it was the closing episode. It was one of those things. So, so let’s, let’s choose our own end point for that and start a new relationship where hopefully we can have Scott on here a few times to talk about whatever is relevant. In the world of sports betting, especially his speciality, the NFL.
So J K and Scott, I understand [00:48:00] that neither of you kept score in the bowl challenge. We did the last time we were all on the air together. Is that correct? That is correct. That is correct. I, I know my big game. I know Scott had his big game, but outside of that, I didn’t really look any deeper. So it’s probably going to be like that great TV show on HBO luck, where everyone was getting really into it.
And then you just had to pretend you knew what the ending was and just make, make it up in your own mind. Unless I’ll say this. If there’s one of the podcast fans out there who wants to do us a major solid, you’d have to go back into that old feed to find the episode, but it’ll be the last episode of, and I’m going to say these letters with, with intention now with the last episode of the DRF sports forum.
Listen through check the spreads, see who won. You’ll we’ll come up with some special prize. I will either find a book lying around from here. Perhaps a parent will make you a [00:49:00] coffee mug in her new pottery class. I don’t know. We’ll do something special for the listener who comes through and goes ahead and lets us know who won the challenge on the old show.
Look, I’ll concede that I lost. If Scott can please help me figure out. Who I need to bet on Marv has been blowing me up. He wants to know who, who I’m going to take in the super bowl. And I, I’m not kidding. I seriously don’t have a clue. I’m actually letting the fact that my son is rooting for a team. Um, be the reason that like I might make that action play because this is a tough, tough game to bet.
I’m hoping Scott will open up my eyes a little bit here. Well, Scott, let me ask it this way. If you had one bet to make on the super bowl, what would it be? I would look to the props, to be honest with you. And the one I would take is neither team to score in the first six and a half minutes of the game at plus one 30.
I think traditionally you see in Superbowls a feeling out period early in the game in the eight Tom Brady Superbowls. [00:50:00] In the first six and a half minutes of those games, there has been a score only once that score was six minutes and eight seconds into. Super bowl 46. And you, what the score was? It was a safety, it was a call on Tom Brady, intentional grounding when he threw the ball 45 yards down the middle of the field, and there was no receiver there.
And the giants got two points for that six minutes, eight seconds into super bowl, 46, the other seven Superbowls. First six and a half minutes. There has been no scoring the other seven, Tom Brady Superbowls. And in fact there was no scoring in the first quarter for the Patriots. Until last year, super bowl.
When they got a field goal with about, I think it was four 17 left in the first quarter, uh, prior to that, prior to all the Superbowls that Tom Brady [00:51:00] had been in. And I always catch myself when I’m saying H it doesn’t sound right, but it is right. He has played in eight super bowls and this is a ninth. So the first seven that he played, the Patriots did not score in the first quarter.
Last year they scored. In the first quarter, they got a field goal, but it was after the six and a half minute Mark. So that’s my favorite problem. And you also get the extra juice, plus one 30. If you look at what the Patriots have done in these playoffs, they actually won the coin, flip against the chargers, opted to take the ball, which is a bit unorthodox for them.
They usually defer to the second half they took the ball and they had that long drive. Uh, against the chiefs, the chiefs won the toss and deferred. So the patrons got the ball first and they had another long drive that lasted beyond six and a half minute Mark. Now I’m not saying those exact things are gonna happen again, but I think it’s a combination of a feeling out period early in games, and especially in Superbowls with trying to control the clock.
The last thing [00:52:00] that these teams want is. To get the ball first and a three and hour, that creates as much momentum for the other team. I believe as a score does. And JK, I’d love to get your thoughts on that. Uh, you know, having been on the sidelines and w how a three, and now after you’ve gained planned all week, and in this case for two weeks, uh, to get the ball and then go three and out what kind of effect that has on the team psyche.
Well, I think to your point, you know, I think it’s, uh, it’s, it’s, it’s the, the Patriots do something that can be very frustrating if you bet on them. One is they, they stick to for the run very early in the game, they do. They’re, they’re one of the teams that hardly ever abandoned the run. Um, I think it’s one of Bella checks.
Obviously the, the coordinators offensive coordinators, you have understands how important that is to him. And, and they, they stick to the run. So that kind of, that kind of plays to your, to your idea of why they’re kind of feeling each other out early. The other thing they do on defense, which can be very frustrating when you bet on them as well [00:53:00] is a lot of Ben don’t break and, you know, they’ll let you, they’ll let you move the football.
They’ll let you kick field goals. They’re just not going to let you chunk planned. Um, they’re, they’re going to keep you on the field and they’re gonna make you earn every little piece of it. So I think that kind of plays to that as an offensive coordinator. Every coordinator scripts their first seven, sometimes their first 14.
You don’t want to experience failure in that first three, you’ve had two weeks to prepare for the biggest game of your life. And for you to fall flat on your face can be very discouraging for the offense and the defense. So I see exactly where you’re coming from there. Interesting. So that, that’s my favorite one P I really think there’s good value in that a plus one 30.
And when you look at the recent history of the Patriots, uh, not just in these playoffs, but in the Superbowls. I like that one. That’s very interesting. JK, you mentioned Austin has a route, which way is his fan heart leaning? He’s he’s uh, he’s, he’s leading Tom Brady or a Tom Brady t-shirt Jersey to school.
So [00:54:00] he’s, uh, he’s bred. He said that who’s the best we’re back in the NFL. And I said, ah, or I were to ever play. And I, I, he kind of, he forced me to answer the question. I was like, uh, And so he’s like, Oh, can I get one of those shirts? I was like, you sure can. So, um, Jayda, you’re raising your kids, right? I’m very proud of the Patriots.
Yes. Meanwhile, I’m looking over in my closet right now, down here at the bunker and eyeing my Lawrence Taylor Jersey, which I actually fit in again, which is pretty amazing. That will be my attire on super bowl. Sunday. Let’s talk about the game itself. JK. It seems to have no opinion, Scott, how do you see it playing out on the field?
I do like the Patriots in this one. And, uh, I, yeah. I think, look in every game and especially the super bowl, because it’s the only game you have the handicap over a two week period. It really gives you ample time to try and make a case on both sides. And I think one of the cases. That you might want to make for the [00:55:00] Rams.
If you’re looking that way is the statistical edges that they have in a number of categories. Uh, the average more points per game than the Patriots. Uh, and this is from the start of the 2018 regular season, including the two playoff games. So in 18 games, sample size, uh, Rams are averaging more points per game.
They’ve converted on a higher percentage of third down conversions. I know that’s something that a JK looks at, and I think it’s a very valuable a statistical tool as well. They have a higher scoring margin and they have a higher turnover differential. So those four key categories, which are categories that I do look at and weigh a bit more heavily than a lot of other categories.
So we’re talking about authentic output. You’re talking about scoring margin. Third down conversion percentage and turnover, differential, all in the favor of the Rams. Now I’m just going to go a point by point here for teams that average more [00:56:00] points per game in the last 18 Superbowls for 13 and one against the spread for teams that.
Convert a higher third down percentage. Last 18 Superbowls, six 11, and one against the spread teams with the higher scoring margin, going into the Superbowl five and 10 against the spread in the past 15 Superbowls and the team with the better turnover differential. Five and 10 against the spread over the past 15 super balls.
So it’s interesting how, when you look at, during the regular season, these are metrics that I weigh heavily enough to a degree where if I’m getting. Good number on the side of the team that has the edge in all of these categories. I will strongly consider going that way. I won’t go that way automatically.
There’s other things to factor in, but those are some key statistics and, you know, it’s something I’ve been trying tracking really for the last seven or eight years. Yeah. In [00:57:00] super bowls. And you’re trying to get a handle on why our Superbowl’s different and Jake, I’d love to get your thoughts on what I’m about to say here.
I think there’s an element of the team that has been doing things let’s say, uh, more correctly, the team that has done things that’s resulted in all of these stronger statistics, tend to play it a bit more similar to how they did. During the regular season and in the two playoff games and are therefore easier to game plan for the team that is on the short side of these and other statistical categories, kind of look at the opponent and say, okay, we’ve got to do some things differently here in order to overcome.
What our shortcomings are statistically and might roll out some different defensive game plans, maybe some authentic wrinkles. That’s a little bit of what I’ve concluded in going back. And I have [00:58:00] watched really the majority of the last 10 Superbowls over the past, uh, 10 days. Uh, you can see what. What kind of life I have and, uh, you know, just trying to get a handle on why that is pretty significant numbers there.
When you’re talking about the team, the average is more points per game, you know, for 13 and one against the spread in the last 18 Superbowls, uh, you can’t help, but want to look into that deeper. It it’s a large enough sample size, you know, I think that’s part of the reason. You know, again, trying to look at an angle to take the Rams and then it sort of gets turned upside down and back toward the Patriots.
But, uh, J K do you think there’s any validity to what I’m saying in that regard of looking at the team strengths sort of admitting where they’re stronger and then doing things that maybe that team hasn’t seen on tape and catching them a little off guard? Yeah, I completely agree. And I think the other important part to keep in mind to that, to your point is that, is that these teams.[00:59:00] They change a lot throughout the year. The Patriots typically have these kind of slow starts because it’s all about the long-term process for them. That’s one of the reasons that Belicheck is so good and to relate it to our racing fans, you know, he’s like Shogun Belmont. He doesn’t care if he wins the first race doesn’t care.
If he wants the second one or the third one. He wants to win the grade one. And that’s how Bella, Chad looks at things. A lot of these other coaches are on the hot seat. They’re worried about their performance. We get in a week out. They’re worried about Monday morning quarterbacks on the radio, the sports radio in their, in their town, their owners looking to fire them.
Belicheck doesn’t care about that. He’ll sit and Gronk. He’ll sit Edelman. He’ll, he’ll run the football. He’ll he’ll bend, not break on defense. He’ll do whatever it takes to just get to the final game. And then he turns it on and he, and he really cranks the screws. So I think that the thing about the Patriots is that they’re going to do what they have to do to win the football game.
And it’s why they won so many of these and why they’ve shown up there. I think Sean McVay is an unbelievable coach. I think he’s the [01:00:00] next up and coming great coach in this league. If he hasn’t already proven to be a good one, um, he might have a little bit of pressure on him, not so much that he’s going to be fired, but these facing this legend and, and, and there might be some more pressure to, to kind of do for, for, for the Patriots to kind of gain plan what the Rams had done.
So successfully all year, the Patriots have been up and down. They had banged up, Gronk banged up Edelman, a lot of different things, been changing throughout the year. And I think you’ll see their best performance here. I don’t know exactly what side I’m going to take here because I think the Patriots will probably win, but I wouldn’t be like completely shocked if the Rams won by 21.
Uh, because they, they are so talented and all the things I’ve mentioned above, I will say this, and this is a one thing I keep coming to, and I’m trying to find the best way to that. It is that the Ram’s best player on offense and on defense is Aaron. Donald. He will be neutralized by Tom Brady, the quick game, the outside street zoned game, the screen game.
He there, you know, Tom’s not going to be back there. [01:01:00] Five, five step dropping and letting Aaron Donald tee off on him. There’s gonna be a lot of quick game to Edelman underneath. And a lot of those things, that’s going to take Aaron Donald out of the game and neutralize one of their biggest strengths.
Right. You know, kind of like in a, you know, with a, with a, with a pace horse, you know, if you’re going to be dueling out there, it doesn’t really fit, uh, to, to what they’re good at. So that’s why I’m leaning in that direction. I just, the Rams have that feeling of this, like up and coming up. Oh, we got an there’s a new, there’s a new kid in town feel to it.
And that’s the part that has me a little bit concerned. Yeah, it took a couple of things on that. I think it’s interesting a buddy and I were talking about the old, uh, Pat Riley philosophy right. Of these teams that, uh, have to get up toward the top of the mountain, get knocked down before they can really get over over that top.
And I wonder if that’s, what’s going to turn out to be the fact that the Ram you’re right about the Patriots having been up and down this season. But right now they have been up and I looked back at how they performed in [01:02:00] bowls based on where they’re at in a certain scenes. It’s so a lot of these roles they’ve gone into not playing their best football.
It’s almost as if they had peaked in late November, early December, and then started to slide back. So. The past three Patriots, Superbowl losses, which were in February 18, 12 and Oh eight. Those Superbowls, those losses were proceeded by scoring outputs in the AFC championship game of 24, 23, 21 points. Now in the past two super bowl victories that was over Atlanta two years ago.
And Seattle four years ago, the Patriots came into those having scored 70 points over the two. 2017, January playoff games, 80 points over the two, January, 2015 playoff games. They come into this one having scored 78 points over the two January playoff games. I think there’s [01:03:00] something too. And. It’s partly a feel of this Patriots team is playing better at this point in the season than it had in recent seasons.
Going into that Eagle super bowl. Remember they were kind of very fortunate to get out of that AFC title game, having beaten the Jaguars and that Jaguars team. Was the, I mean, there were good enough to make it the AFC title game, but that’s not going down was one of the all-time great teams. I mean, that’s Blake, Bortles at quarterback and the Jags almost pulled that game out.
The Patriots were not playing good football going into that super bowl against the Eagles. And that’s kind of the way it ended up. But it ended up playing out. I think when you look at some of you start to boil down to the specifics, what do they have this year that they didn’t have in past years? One thing is health.
Gronkowski is healthy. Edelman is healthy. Edelman was not, he did not play in the Eagles super bowl. People tend to forget about that. He was [01:04:00] out for the year with the ACL injury. Gronk was not playing when the Patriots lost, uh, to the Broncos three years ago in the AFC title game, when the Broncos went on to beat the Panthers in the super bowl.
So this Patriots team over the past several weeks has shown, uh, that it is playing extremely well in office and playing their best offensive football of the season, going into the super bowl, which is another thing that makes me feel, uh, more confident. In this year’s Patriots, then I may have been in past years.
Great stuff, guys. I want to thank you both for your thoughts on the big game, and that’s gonna do it for this episode of the, in the money players podcast. I want to thank our guests, Preston Sims and Scott Grambling. Thanks to J K as always. And of course, thanks to all of you, the listeners. Who make the show so much fun to do hit us up on Twitter.
Talk to us through our blog, the, in the money [01:05:00] podcast.com blog, we will be back on Tuesday with a recap of all the action from the weekend until then I’m Peter Thomas foreign, a towel. May you win all your photos?