It’s the annual Kentucky Oaks show and we’ve got Jake Ballis of Blacktype Thoroughbreds and pro player Sean Boarman here to go over all the stakes on the undercard as well as the big race itself. Which top contender is working great? Which longshot is poised for a big move forward? Listen and learn.
Plus, how PTF spoiled Game of Thrones for JK.
Prefer to read it? See below.
***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***
Where are you watching the Kentucky Derby? If you’re in the New York area, I highly recommend you. Come watch it with me at Treadwell park West on 42nd street in Manhattan. We’re going to be having a great party, no cover, no minimum drink specials. Food specials, bourbon tastings, live music, gambling, basically all the good things in life.
I’m going to start it off at about 2:00 PM on Saturday. Come join us. Treadwell park, West 42nd street location.
Your listening to the in the money players podcast.
Hello, welcome to the end, the money players podcast. This is show number 37. It is Tuesday, April 30th. It’s the Kentucky Oak show. I’m your host, Peter Thomas. very happy to be back with you. In the Brooklyn bunker once again, and we’ve got a terrific team assembled to go over these stakes races on the Kentucky Oaks card.
But before we bring in our guests for today, I’m going to introduce the co-host of this show. But before I introduce the cohost of the show, I owe the man a massive apology of all the people in the world. I thought for sure he would be watching game of Thrones live. I knew he was working in Texas that day short drive from home.
I figured it was an absolute no-brainer. So when about an hour, hour, five into the show, I texted him and I’ll do this spoiler free for those of you out there who haven’t seen it yet. So I’ll just say, can you believe. That so-and-so did such and such to the other thing. Meanwhile, he hadn’t seen it. It popped up on his screen.
I basically spoiled game of Thrones for him. And I apologize from the bottom of my heart, to the people’s champion, Jonathan kitchen JK. Do you forgive me? I do. It’s probably a theme. You’ve been ruining a lot of things for me in my life as of late. So, uh, I’d expect that to continue. What does that even mean?
Thank goodness we have. Thank goodness. I got some good backup I’m here today to help me in case you start getting a little bit saucy. I got the people, the best friends crew is in the house. So. That’ll help me out here, the best friends crew. That, that leads me to another question down the line. Before we bring in those friends, I did want to talk JK about some of the fun stuff we’ve got going on some great coverage up on the, in the money podcast.com site.
Right now with folks haven’t been reading the Brian . Uh, Derby previews going horse by horse trip notes that would make Benny sass street proud videos of just about every race as well. This is an amazing form guide. If you’re looking to get going or are in the midst and looking for another perspective on the work you’re doing for the Kentucky Derby check out in the money podcast.com.
We’ve also got John Kamado. He’s going to have a couple of pieces up this week. One about Derby post positions. And the other is about the Kentucky Oaks. Those are the two he has planned so far, lots of great content there. And I also wanted to announce we’ve teased it, but now it’s official. We’ve got the, in the money players, podcasts, t-shirt JK tell the people about it.
And where are they? I get it. There’s links on my Twitter. It’s a, it’s a, we did a partnership with a company called where I’m from. And it’s a, the shirt is, is called the, uh, it’s on the front. It says I’m alive. And the pick five, because there’s nothing better than being alive. And if you hit the first leg you’re alive and all we want to do is get to those will pays.
And then, uh, then that’s when the fun starts happening. We thought it’d be a fun shirt, uh, that can, uh, transfer to racetrack, to racetrack. So those are, uh, those were available on our Twitter pages and we’ll send out those links a little bit more this week. Yeah, those should be plenty of activity on Twitter.
We’re going to keep pumping up the monster pod. Thanks everybody. That’s going to end up being not only our most popular show, but I think maybe the most popular horse racing podcast that anybody’s ever done, less credit to us than to our amazing guests who helped us, not only in sharing their great insights, but also.
In helping us promote the darn thing. And one of those gas from the monster pod is back with us today. He was a regular on our Keelan select players podcast. And he’s been on this show before and hopefully we’ll continue to be more in the future. I’m talking about professional player, Sean Borman. How are you today, Shawn?
Hey, Hey, what’s happening, boys. Life is good. It’s Derby week, you know, it’s the old thing. If this don’t get your fire going, your wood is wet and JK. I just assume that you’re even more excited than me. I know this is like Christmas this week. I get fired up all week. I, I actually tweeted, you asked me a question off the air and I’ll I’ll, I’m going to go ahead and answer it without you asking it again, but where I got so excited.
Well, I had a 46 minute conversation with Paul Matisse yesterday and just talking about Derby and his memories of all these derbies situations and that got me really going. And then I looked and saw the overnight for Friday. And, uh, and I tweeted that I had found my play for, uh, my all-in play for Friday and Garrett Skiva successfully guessed what it was.
And then. A couple of friends made jokes about, uh, about it being chalky and then a very annoying human being that will not be mentioned, turned it into something, you know, different. And I’m not talking about inside the pylons. He’s just talking about, uh, he just giving his perspective, but other people like to chime in.
And that’s when it turned into me talking about my strategy, uh, for the contest. But I don’t really care if people know that I’m doing it. Because no one else is going to do it. There’s like 27 races after that point where I can do other things to win or not win the contest. So it makes no difference to me.
I just think I question the idea, basically the idea boils down to, and you already said it on Twitter. So I don’t feel like I’m giving anything away. The idea that you can pound. A chalk chalk combination, whatever it is really to me, an exact, a double, but you can do something that’s just very likely to hit that in real life.
Over the longterm wouldn’t necessarily be a winning play, but in the context of the contest with the rules that you have to follow there, And the added money slash takeout reduction in the form of the prize pool can make that play. That might’ve been a losing play into a winning play. If I were you, I think it’s clever enough JK that I wouldn’t have given it away, but I guess, I guess sometimes it’s hard to, uh, hard to keep those fingers off the keyboard.
I think we’ve seen that from you. Yeah. Yeah. They get my Twitter fingers get real aggressive sometimes. All right. This was an unplanned diversion this early in the show, we still have not brought in our next guest. The last time he was on with us, it was actually at a live event. It didn’t go out over the airwaves, but he was telling you all kinds of reasons to stay away from a couple of favorites.
One of whom was odds on, on the day. We’ll get back to her in a little bit. I am talking about Jake Balas of black type thoroughbreds. Jake, how are you today? Hey, Pete. Good morning. I got to ask. Jake has good as your opinions were on that Friday night at Bell’s in Lexington. Did you have a good day that Saturday?
I was envisioning you cleaning up in that pick five. No to answer your question. I did not have a great, I did not have a great day. I didn’t know fairness. I didn’t play that much, but I did not have a very good day. Gambling just goes to show for everybody as good as your opinion might be the, the putting it together on the wagering side.
It can, can sometimes be its own animal. Yeah. Jonathan’s always told me it’s more about constructing your ticket and handicapping, and I’m still trying to get better at the construction part. Well, that’s one of the things we’ll try to touch on here. Maybe at the end of the show, when we go through these Kentucky Oaks stay steaks, maybe we’ll come back and talk a little bit about wagering strategy, thoughts as far as y’all have had a chance to formulate them so far, but it all starts.
In terms of the stakes with race five on Friday, we’ll start with going to do something very unusual here and start with J K. Even though we have guests, because I wanted to ask him how many races will you be there for, or will you, I think I remember you saying you like to show up for the stakes on Oaks and Derby, which just surprised me because usually you can’t be held back when there are horses running around in a circle and opportunities to wager on them.
Yeah, those are in an intense few days, you know, I know that everyone on this call has been to the Derby before, but, uh, those were intense days that are long days. Um, and, and, and, and usually there’s some adult beverages that are happening with the excitement and the, and the big breaks in between races.
And if you get there at 10 and try to ride it out until seven, it’s going to be a long one. So I like to try to get there right before the stakes. Um, obviously if there’s something early in the card that, uh, that needs to. That needs to be addressed. I can get there if I can’t take care of that, another situation.
So I, I don’t like to get there too early. It’s just a really, really long day. We should give a little bit of love. We talked a little bit about Kentucky Derby bedding challenge before, but we should point out there’s still time to get in. If you’re betting big money on the Derby, you might as well do it in the context of this contest and have a chance to get part of that prize pool.
It’s for high rollers, it’s a $12,000. Buy-in. If you’re interested, contact Gary Palmisano as soon as possible. I’m not sure if he allows day of and walk ups and all that. I wouldn’t leave it to the last minute. I’d get involved. Now you can find Gary through the Churchill downs website, and I believe you can play in this contest right on twin spires.com.
So it’s not like you have to be as crazy as JK and try to go to this thing live. You can be sensible like me. And Jake and Sean, and go to a more relaxed atmosphere and play from there. So keep that in mind and JK, how are you going to get things kicked off in this eight bells? Yeah. You know, this race is always a race.
I think there’s a lot of fun because you end up getting these Oaks types, Phillies that are, that are finding themselves on the cutback. And so you can obviously find some, some opportunities. You know, mother, mother is a horse that I’ve always thought was very talented. She was always well thought of.
When she broke her D uh, her maiden at Del Mar. And I love these, these Baffert types that they kind of find themselves on the Oaks trail and then cut back. She’s drawn outside. Uh, she’s been working good from all accounts at Churchill. So I think she’s extremely live in here and probably one that, uh, that, that if you’re, if you’re, if you’re playing.
Uh, she’s one you’ll want to consider. Uh, but lyrical lady was another one that I thought was fun. So I’ll probably mess around with those too. But I think mother, mother on the cutback and some of the things she’s done in the past, I mean, her, her. Her debut as a two year old sprint figure kind of fits with, uh, with what these horses are running now.
So she can find that back on the cutback. I think she’ll be tough that silver wig isn’t gonna wear itself. Sean Borman, what do you think about the eight bells? I’ve got a vastly different opinion. I hate mother, mother never thought she was good and I’m just throwing her out. Um, I think there’s. Tons of pace in here, but none of the speed horses impress me that much, but their ability to take a lot of pace pressure and still finished, finished the race.
So I’m going to try to find a couple of closers or horses that can finish, and I’m going to mess around with a two and three proud Emma and queen a, B’s not a strong opinion for me. I’ll probably just. You know, throw out. I don’t like the five belt, the one, and I don’t like them other mothers. So I would probably just pitch those two and try to get the two and three, both to be in the soup or something.
Just make a small plate in there for what it’s worth. We talked about queen bees before on the show and looking at the race quickly. My eye was very much drawn there as well. Jake Balas what do you think here? Maybe you can break the tie regarding mother, mother. Well, I agree with Sean. I wouldn’t say that I hate her.
Uh, I don’t like, I mean, this spot. I do like local lady. And if you’re a rag player, uh, she ran a six and a quarter last race with dishonesty than any other horse in this race. And I’m also gonna, I like break even, uh, for Brad Cox, the horses on a Peter’s never done anything wrong. I’m going to use those two with, I’m going to throw in queen of bees as well.
I like like her finger pattern. And, um, but I will try to be a mother, mother, and I like that. And just for technical purposes, Jake, you would call, even though you’re going to be using too widely, lyrical lady would be your top pick in here. Yes. All right. Let’s move on to Ray six. It’s the edge wood and Jake ballasts.
We’re just going to go ahead and keep it with you for this one. I have a feeling this might be one of our shorter conversations, but who knows? Maybe we’ll go on a tangent. As far as I was concerned, a newspaper of record was going to win 99 out of a hundred times. No, she towers over the field. I’m just going to play.
If I had to play an exact I’m using concrete rows on the knees. Uh, concrete roads is very talented. A good friend of mine owns, or I’ll be rooting for concrete Rose to upset newspaper of record. But I don’t see it happening. There’s never a record. It’d be a single across the board. We already know what you’re going to say here, JK.
So just go ahead. Yeah. I mean, she’s the, obviously the best horse in the race and she has excelled on this turf course. She’s excelled with some given this term. Of course, if there happens to be some weather, um, you know, our buddy, Chris Laramie actually tweeted earlier today and I started to respond, but I didn’t, I want people to bet against herself.
Um, He, he mentioned that like, you know, Churchill, sometimes the rail can get dead on the turf course when it rains. That’s certainly true. And the newspaper record drew the rail, but she’s not going to end up look, if the rail is dead, IRA’s not going to be sitting on the rail with the best Philly in the country.
Right. He’s going to get off the rail. She’s tactical. It’s nice. She didn’t get stuck down in there. And they’re going to like race rider. She’s the fastest horse in the race at every point of the race. She’s not going to be on the rail, the rails dead. So that’s a fair point in both directions as smart of Krista pointed out.
But those things are a lot harder if you’re the second fastest speed horse and the fast. The speed horse has drawn right outside of you, where you could see a scenario, race design wise, where you could get pinned. She does up here quick enough to just make her own trip from wherever. And I admire you JK for making the case so strongly.
I think we have some friends out there who would be tempted to downplay the chances and try to get that right. That number up, maybe just a little bit in your, in your, all in double here. So kudos to you for laying it all on the table. Sean Borman, do you have a conflicting point of view or is this one as simple as newspaper of record?
And if it is as simple as newspaper of record, how would you see approaching this one from a betting point of view? Or would it be more of a pass? I, you know, I completely agree with, with Jonathan and Jake, um, newspaper records be. Break shark. Like she always does. She’ll be loose losing the three paths.
So the rail not going to be an issue. And she, you know, she wins for fun. Um, my angle to the race is I’m sort of anti concrete Rose. I, I wasn’t super enthused with her last race and I’m fairly sure she’ll be a solid second choice. So I’m going to try to beat her out in the exact, uh, The other Chad can be air park and possibly the three winter sunset, but I don’t foresee being heavily involved in the verticals in this race.
In terms of horizontals, is this one where you would single and move on or look to avoid the spot because of how chalky it appears? No, I think you just single and move on and then take the free square here. I will say though, you know, these sources for whatever reason, Can and do lose the case. And Lee, you know, bulletin on opening night with, you know, Howard over that field.
I think just as much as, as newspaper towers over this one, and it just ran a stinker and got beat. So it doesn’t hurt to, to take, you know, 10% of your best 5% of your bag and try to beat horses like this. Um, but I don’t see it happening on Friday. That’s a strategy you sometimes employ that you will probably not even bother with here.
Is that safe to say, or would you potentially take your two others in 50 cent increments? Whereas you’ll have five or $10 with paper.
I will probably, I will probably back up to some degree, probably exactly how, but, you know, if I’ve got $10 worth of newspaper, I might have 50 cents for the others, just because, you know, if you beat her for whatever reason, you’re, you’re going to get paid. All right. Let’s move on to the alley Sheba and we’ll do that same thing, Sean, where I keep it with you.
We’re looking at another very big favorite here in McKinsey. We got to watch that last race together. And I know we thought it was more or less of a case of doing everything but winning. Do you think McKinsey will back up that effort with another big one here and get the job done in the alley?
I think he’s definitely the most likely winner. Um, yeah. Thanks. You know, being drawn to rail, Mike, Smith’s going to have to use a little bit and send, and in my opinion, he’s going to try to send an in pop out so he can sit outside the other speed and press them. And we’ll probably work out a really good trip pace.
Doesn’t look very fast to me. So Mackenzie’s most likely winter I’m going to use the three prime attraction with him. And then, you know, I don’t, I don’t really want anything else in this race seeking the soul’s numbers are fine, but he’s going to be awfully far back in a slow pace. So, so to me, it’s McKinsey first prime attraction, second, and then just move on, Jake.
How about you? Yeah. Landed on the Kennedy as well. And I’m thinking he’s the fastest in the race. He can, the soul. Back to very quick, uh, from Dubai and typically that’s a recipe of disaster. Uh, and, um, you know, Tom’s thought, you know, if you take away the last race course has been really good. So I’m going to use him.
And the Mackenzie, I think is in mountain view. J K I think we know where you’re headed here. Yeah. I mean, look, I I’ve I’ve I have a affinity for McKinsey. I think he’s a really talented horse and I there’s some scientific reasons behind it. It’s not just the silver wig and, and Mike Smith participants to get me going.
But, you know, look, the, the horses most impressive race, I think of his entire career was the seven furlongs. He ran in the Malibu where he was unbelievably impressive in that race. And his last two races, you know, this year going a little bit longer going, you know, going nine for longs and 10 for long, he wasn’t embarrassed.
Um, he ran pretty good. And I think his last race was, was game is ever getting beat by gift box. So it feels like that this mile and a 16th is going to hit him right in between the eyes. I love the fact that he’s drawn inside. No funny business, no wide business. Michael, get him out of there. He he’ll break.
And he’ll get he’ll be forward. And I just, I just can’t see the horse losing. I mean, look, I, I just think he’s, I think he’s not as likely, obviously as newspaper of record, but I think he’s going to be the second, most likely winner in the two days that we’re going to have, uh, starting up this weekend. All right, let’s go on to the grade one law, Troy in and JK.
We’re going to keep it with you.
Yeah. You know, this race is a funny race. It reminds me of the first time I ever went to the Derby interesting stories. You’ve never gone to Churchill before, but I flew into Nashville, which is central time zone. And we drove over to, uh, to, to Louisville. Obviously you, you, you lose an hour and that situation is in Jada.
Scratch that morning from the lottery and we would have missed it. If, uh, we would have missed it if, if she actually would have run. Cause we were all backwards and with our times and stuff, I learned an important lesson. You bet. You definitely got lucky. Yeah, no, I don’t know if I’d ever would have forgiven him.
Can you imagine? I mean, you’ve got the, this was, this was pre tattoo I imagined, but still. Oh, pre tattoo, free tattoo pre, uh, pre, uh, pre hitting a score over $500 probably in my, you know, I was, I was just getting started at that time. So, um, You know, this race is tricky. There’s, you know, there’s really, it’s gross.
Feel like a grade one, no offense. Do I have any friends that own horses in here? It doesn’t feel like a grade one. Um, I thought secret spices last race in San Anita was pretty impressive. Um, really fast figure. Um, you know, did it like a good horse? I worry a little bit about the price. You know, I don’t know if I necessarily want secret spices, the favorite.
Um, I’m, I’m, I’m hopeful that the connections with Giovanni Franco and Richie Baltis, uh, aren’t prominent enough across the country, that they ended up being a favorite on, on Derby day. So I think that that horse could drift up a little bit. Maybe blue prize will be the favorite. And then I thought she’s a Julie who, who re, who wanted an Oaklawn, a wire to wire with Ricardo.
Last time obviously had a little bit of a break, has been working with copper bullet. Who’s a nice, talented, older horse. And, uh, you know, I think she’s, I think she’s live. I think she’s live in here and, and a horse that I would definitely consider, especially if you’re playing the, uh, the, the bet that I’m the most excited about all weekend.
And that’s that cross day to day pick six, uh, with all the grant ones and it starts with this race to launch oriented. So it’s the grade one launch we’re in. The Kentucky Oaks, the Humana Distaff the Churchill downs, uh, sprint the old Forester turf, and then obviously the Kentucky Derby. So it starts here.
I’m going to probably spread. If I was spreading in this race to get this thing started, I’m going to use she’s a Julie blue prize, divine, Ms. Gray, moped autism. And secret spice and try to get alive to some skinnier skinnier spots. All right. So just recap for me that that’s your spread potentially for that cross day pick six, but in terms of your actual selection in the race, if I narrowed you down to just one or maybe one in a backup, what would it be?
I’ll take secret spices, my top pick, but it’s price dependent. Right? I don’t want secret spice at eight to five if somehow, um, you know, she gets bet off of her last perform. So if she goes too short, then you would pick just for academic purposes here. She she’s a Julie, she’s a Julie . All right, Sean Borman.
I would imagine you’re going to be taking a look at this cross day, pick six. I’m curious what your general thought on the race is and who you would look to use in the first leg of that bet. Yes, I will be playing the ticks. It’s uh, probably the normal ones and across state Pyxis. I also agree with Johnson.
This is a tough race. That is definitely a spread race for me. Um, I would say the one sheet of Julie and the nine secret spice are my, are my top two picks. But, um, I’m also gonna use blue prize, divine, Ms. Gray, and possibly all Emma, what was it you liked about all Emma 20 to one in the morning line. Well, just she’s got speed.
I don’t, I don’t think she actually makes the lead, which might be a problem, but she could, and in a bad field, I like to have speed horses. Yeah. Um, so I, I would just toss her in as you know, as a backup. Tight tight and bad. Of course you mean bad for the level as opposed to I’m sure we’d be very happy to own anybody in this, in this race.
Of course. Now these are all very nice, very nice horses, but I think I agree with Jonathan. This is a great one in name only. I don’t think there’s real legitimate grade one horses in here. You don’t feel that bad relative to par. I like to have speed horses. Jake, let’s move on to your thoughts on this law, Troy, and we’ve got, uh, we have very similar opinions from the first two guests.
They’re both one, nine or nine one in either order and both would like to spread in the horizontal exotic ex how do you see it? I see it as a spread rates as well to, you know, you look at blue prides. You know her last race, she can beat by Monomoy girl, wild cat. She only lost the Lincoln on paper. I think she’s the best horse, but coming up and lay off the last time last year from 2017 to 18 layoff, she ran the Azeri and ran up and ran a poor race.
This is a similar layoff added an extra month. Ignacio is not very good off the layoff. And I’m going to try to beat reprise. I like the vine, Ms. Gray, her last race. She ran really fast, shyness six and a quarter on the seat. I spoke to Danny Gargan, the day of the race. He told me she was 80% fit. And I don’t know if that’s because he was just telling me that or not, but he acted like she could get beat that day.
I’m going to try to beat blue cards at the, by Ms. Gray had a second one. It would be, um, The secret spice. I think Teresa, Teresa Z will run them. I’m going to use her as well. All right. So that is the scoop from Jake. There let’s move ahead to actually, we’ve got this allowance race sort of in the middle of things.
I did not prep you guys for this, but JK texted me that he had a quick thought for folks who are looking to get involved in these horizontals JK, how did you see this one? Well, I think Baffert is going to be hanging out by the, uh, by the racing office, trying to get somebody to scratch out of this race so that he can draw in with, uh, with Sol street, with our friend, Chris Felica and current herb street are involved in.
So be fun to see him get in. I think that’s going to make the huge difference. Right? He’s the most talented. He’s the fastest early, he’s got the most speed. Obviously being drawn outside is an ideal, but not problematic for a horse like this. So the race to me is decided on whether or not he gets in. Um, I haven’t done the full dive, but the other thing I will mention is that American tattoo, uh, for Todd Pletcher, uh, the, the plane one that horses isn’t as a horse that I’ve just seen.
And I just remember like watching SBTV a bunch this spring and, and, and seeing him working against a bunch of other horses, um, That, uh, that, you know, that wanted aqueduct. He worked with him federal case obviously was the, uh, the expensive, uh, orders that they bought to, uh, to try to get on the Derby trail from, they bought from uh, WinStar and Rudolph.
And, and so look, I just think he’s an interesting one that has no American form that his workout suggests that he might be. Okay. So I’m gonna, I’m going to look at those two. Um, and see what happens to see if solar street can get in. Do you figure this is a race you might be participating in, in with the Kentucky Derby betting challenge, or are you more interested in the stakes are too early to tell.
No. If I hit the, if I, if I’m alive at this point and you can talk to, you’re already being challenged, I’m going to just be sitting on sitting on the situation that I created for myself until Saturday. I, you know, but I will be participating in this race when it comes to the pick six, like Sean mentioned, um, I think this pick six is fun.
You know, it’s kind of a, it’s a, it’s a, it’s a chalky pick six and you know that, uh, you know, that I like those a little bit. So, um, I will participate in it. And this race happens to be right in the heart of it. That reminds me actually of something. Sean Borman told me off air, a vision that came to him while watching WWE programming last night, the, they came to Lexington and you had a little bit of a flashback to the late nineties, early two thousands.
And you think you’ve got a gimmick for JK? I do. I think it was a great gym to gimmick for JK and, you know, it’s sort of a, sort of a takeoff on the long running WWE character, gold dust, and maybe a, maybe a little LeBron James thrown in there too. And Jesse would make a great shot dusk with, uh, with this silver wig and then possibly some, some face paint and nice white bodysuit, but what really, what really is going to put it over the top?
Was like a nice silver Fanny pack for the shock when he saunters up to that window and says, give me that $24,000, 100,000 double. He can pull that shock out, throw it in the air, like LeBron, get it on and keep that contest off. Great man. As long, Oh, Hey, will you pick me up? And we can go to the mall and see if I can find that whole get up.
We need fresh. I think I did. I saw the Fanny pack at journey’s just the other day. I think your shoe, the best part about the gimmick is yeah, you didn’t know no change in terms of the foot gear. Just keep that as is, and then go, go with the rest of it is this would be a good Halloween costume JK. Hey, if nothing else.
I’m in. I just got to get all the gear. It seems like a, an intense shopping, uh, situation. Maybe, uh, maybe the Prince of Keelan will, will go shopping with me to help me. I know you like shopping. I’m going to stay away from shopping in Devon. All right. This is a great set chalk dust, I think is a good segue to talking about our next race.
Actually the twin spires turf sprint, which looks on paper, like a match race between world of trouble. Number six, and number one bound for nowhere. JK you just going to keep punching those six one exact dose until your fingers bleed or what. This, this race, uh, actually, um, it makes me smile a little bit.
It’s a very held a special place in my heart. If I’m not mistaken, you know, I had to run into Jake a few times, but like, I feel like at the dirt or me standing right behind his box, he was with Rashard and the Piper. And I think this was like the first time we actually like talked and then our, and then we became friends after that.
So I have to interrupt JK. I have to interrupt. You were standing behind Jake and Rashard and you could see anything. Well, that was the big, the big, I don’t know if they had the big screen yet. I probably looked, just try, just trying to clarify that. Yeah. You know, look, this race is, is interesting because it, it feels like Twitter chatter and just the world.
Like people are gonna try to beat world of trouble with bound for nowhere. And I get it bound for nowhere as a nice horse. But in my opinion, especially with this draw bound for nowhere can not warm. World of trouble up and world of trouble is like a world-class sprinter. Uh, I think that this horse could, could win grade ones and obviously as one grade ones and will win grade ones in both surfaces for the rest of the year.
So good luck trying to beat him. I don’t see how it happened. Two follow-ups. What about the post makes you more sure. And do you like bound have nowhere to run under or do you have another thought vertically? I just think, I think to win a turf sprint from the rail, you have to be like the fastest horse in the race.
You have to be used. You have to get a good, if you’re not a speed horse, you have to be like unbelievably lucky to not get shut off to make sure you can get your, you know, get, you know, get your whole to get out. I just think it’s a very tough place to win from, unless you’re just a dead wire to wire type.
And I don’t see Wesley and IRS thinking that it’s a great idea to try to go ding dong with world of trouble. So it feels like they’re going to try to take back and go for that lucky route and I’ll vote that they won’t get lucky. All right, Jake, Ballis, what’s your thought in this one? Really fundraise from a sporting point of view.
Can we bet on it? Well, Joel’s the fastest sprinter terror for dirt in the country. I don’t think there’s any, any reason to get cute and try to beat them. But I don’t know. I don’t like Wesley from the rail. Uh, back to keen lane. I did like a we’ll call in that race and the shaker town. He was six wide in the turn.
I didn’t like that. And he gets a better trip today in bridge my hands back on, you know, 10 to one. I think you can, you can play him under, but, you know, world of troubles in a league of his own, in my opinion, I wouldn’t, I want to do anything to try to beat him. It is tricky. I mean, you think about reasons, things that might get him beat.
Oh, what if it rains well, or you ran arguably as best race on a wet turf over the course. Sean, can you find any sort of flaw in world of troubles game? I know we watched that last race together in the Carter and thought it was Mo a little more grindy than brilliant. Usually. What do you think he’s going to do here?
The only flaw that I can see. Is this, you know, Jake mentioned getting cute. If Mandy Franco gets cute and doesn’t send this horse. That’s the only flaw I see in both times he’s written him. He hasn’t put him immediately on the lead. He’s done sort of what he did last time at the Carter and wanted to press and finish.
And that’s fine. The horse can do that, but if he gets cute and let’s, you know, let’s the pace get too slow. I think of course, like bound for nowhere could beat him under, under that scenario that said, uh, you know, one of the troubles, definitely the best horse and is the most likely winner. And I’ll be pressing him and all the horizontals.
Obviously I am interested in Angus then to run underneath, you know, second or third, possibly. I think his race in the Woodford is really good. It was very fast on my figures and then they lay a ball off. And the Shakertown to me was a great preparation for this spot. He was wide on a day that we didn’t really want to be wide on that turf course.
Finished up. Nice. So I just sort of see him progressing into a really nice race at a, at a track that he loves. He loves Churchill. So, um, I’m looking to make world trouble the winter and have Angus and run second and exactly third and tries. And. Sprinkling a few other horses. The thought I had Sean, I’d love to play to get your opinion on this was maybe you, the play is really just against bound for nowhere from second with the thought that he’s really trying to win the race and is indefinite danger of getting blown up by world of trouble and finishing third or farther back, opening it up for an Ang Dustin or you know, or a will-call or any of the other horses we’ve talked about in here.
What do you think of that as a wagering strategy? Yeah, I think that’s exactly right. I think, you know, bounce, bounce, familiars best chance is to make the lead, the pace speed be slow. And in that scenario I could see possibly winning. And certainly you could stay around for second in that scenario, but under most scenarios, I think you’re exactly right.
I think he probably gets blown up and then that opens the race up for, for world of trouble, the draw off and win. And Angus Stan and undrafted and we’ll call and some of these closers too, too. Come up and run second, third or fourth underneath him. All right. That does it for the undercard. We’re going to take a quick break for a word from our sponsor of this show, the thoroughbred retirement foundation.
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All right. We’re back. And we’re up to the main event of Friday. It is the grade one, Kentucky Oaks, one of the races of the year. And we’re going to start with you, Jake Ballis for your thoughts on this one, who is going to get it done. And how excited are you about playing this race in general? It’s going to be a fun rate that everyone’s going to be on Bella Bellfina, as they said, figures wise, she towers over the field.
She’s never done anything wrong. I watched him. I don’t like the way she’s moving. You can go look at it on XB TV. Now I have seen her move to better. I’m not on race day. She could be perfectly fine. There’s something about it. I don’t, I don’t like now she could just do that much better than everybody else and she doesn’t need to be, you know, a hundred percent, but I’m going to beat, I’m going to try to beat her with the restless champagne, anyone you’re going to get no value at Bellfina.
And I thought, well, that’s a pretty open, open race. I’m totally against jaywalk, other backward versus 20 to one Florida and more, I don’t think she’s up fast. Um, I, I would love to see Rudolph Wayne with positive spirit. I don’t think she’s a fast and only intriguing. Worst to 20 to one would be lady Apple.
She ran a Keelan and April the two year old year came back, ran. Okay, then poor. They dropped her maiden special way when terrible, after the long layoff she’s, she’s three for three this year in Oakland on paper. She’s not fast enough. But again, a Filipino it’s anyone’s Rose, but I’m going to go and see him painting one who FL in restless, restless.
All right. So we’ve got three positive notes and I do want to loop back to make you talk a little bit more about what you like about restless rider in champagne, anyone, but first, as far as Bella goes, I always. Make it more significant in my mind when somebody doesn’t love the way a horse is looking in the morning or working when they have a lot of experience seeing this horse before.
Cause sometimes that’s just the horse now. So when you’re talking about, Bellfina not super impressing you, is that just from what you’ve seen this week or is that compared to how she looked when you’ve seen her in the past? Well, I’ve seen it in the past. I’ve seen her move in better now. Maybe, you know, maybe she’s like.
You know, she’s like Jonathan, she gets up in the morning. It takes her, took them to get move in. And once she does, I think it’s fine to warm up a little bit. Again, it was just a Gallup that I saw. Gotcha. And you can compare them. And I just, I just didn’t think she was moving as well. It was similar to last, uh, in the Ashland.
I didn’t like jaywalk. I didn’t think she was doing well again, I, I could be totally wrong and I mean, last year, And then you could see the video of world trouble. And in all fairness, it looked like the horse when it passed a state vet in the morning. Right. And next thing you know, the worst runs off the screen.
So I may be over overthinking that I just, you know, on a numbers standpoint, I was, I just wasn’t happy with the way she was. She was moving. I’ll tell you what I’ll tell you. I mean, in my experience, If, if, if you were using, Oh, I’m not crazy about the way the Gallup I saw that would probably be a foolish reason to knock a 20 to one shop.
But when you’re talking about a horse, that’s going to be two to one or less. You don’t need a whole lot of reasons to look in another direction. I just wanted to get a quick thought from you, Jake, on what it was you liked about restless rider and champagne, anyone, and then we’ll move it along to Sean.
You know, um, I looked at the rag figures on a hundred restless rider. She ran a 10 last race. If she improves to an eight, I think that will win this race. If Bellfina doesn’t run her race. Um, and it’s the same with, uh, with in pain, anyone I thought she ran with Ian Wilkes and getting better and better horses did better with the Ian.
She did beat with Dunbar road. She’s lightly raised that horse, that horse. I figure standpoint in the waist, Jean, you know, I would, I would definitely use her as well. I don’t know if she’s going to draw in or not, but just looking on the speed figures. I like, I just, I like the champagne, anyone in, in restless rider, the Latin roughest ride, his last race.
I don’t want to, she got beat by, out for a spin. I don’t like her jaywalk and third, I don’t like her. Maybe I’ll lead more towards the champagne, anyone, but those. I do like the fact that Ian Wilkes was, I do think he enforced it is getting better the right time. All right. So if I held your feet to the fire, sounds like you would go in order champagne, anyone restless rider and lady Apple in the Kentucky Oaks.
Sean, how do you see it? Well, you know, until two minutes ago I was very solidly on Bellfina, but I’ve got to say, I don’t like to hear that the jig doesn’t think she’s moving as well as she used to be. That’s a, that’s a big concern for me. Um, I do think she’s the best horse now think on her best day, she really just towers over this field, but there are a few in here that has sort of an improving look about them.
The one I think could improve the most is Florida Lamar. I’m really excited about betting this horse. She first, I should probably say my figure for the sanity. The oats is much higher than did most figures that are out there. So it’s possible, right? It’s possible. I’m totally wrong. But I think it was a fast race.
She did all the dirty work down inside on a day that I didn’t think he wanted to be inside. And I know she was always thought of as an Oaks Philly, but by the barn. So if she continues to improve, I think she could win the race. And I think she’d pay him a really nice price. I don’t believe the 20 to one though, honestly, on the morning line trainer alone, J K’s money and the trainer alone.
Isn’t that going to drive it down to half that I don’t know. I mean, there’s a lot of ways to go in this race and there’s a lot of, you know, a lot of these horses look sort of similar 20 to one may be a little high, but, but in a big full field when Bella Faena is going to be eight to five, I think you’d probably get every bit of 15 to one.
Very interesting. Mainly because, because the published figures aren’t that fast. Right? So a lot of what people are looking at it doesn’t look that impressive. And that’s one reason why I’m excited to bet the races. You know, I feel like I’ve got good proprietary info. That should give me a little bit of an edge.
But after those two, there’s a lot of horses I don’t want, but you know, some of the ones that looked like they couldn’t prove to me or our champagne, anyone. Restless rider and alpha spinned, even though the Ashland seemed like sort of a fluky race, she does appear to be getting better. And Dallas Stewart, once he gets them going in the right way, especially on these big days in dangerous.
Yeah. We’ve seen that movie before. That’s for certain Florida Lamar, I’m going to Mark down as your top choice there over Bellfina. That’s correct. From a value standpoint. Yes. I think Dell is seen as the most likely winner, but from a betting standpoint, I would say for Florida, Lamar’s my top choice. Yes.
Talking about Florida, Della Mar since the first race. J K. I remember we had a big laugh when we looked trying to be wise guys knowing that some UK and Irish books price up the Kentucky Oaks early. Oh, what price can we get on this one? And it was something like seven to one. After the maiden winner, six to one, maybe even after the maiden win something completely ridiculous.
And while I do agree, you’ll probably get more than that on Kentucky Oaks day. What price do you think this Philly’s actually going to be? And what’s your view in the race overall? Yeah. I always defer to people like Sean, who do this for a living. Um, and, and when they, when they price predict, it’s usually better than when I do it.
So if Sean thinks all of 1501 J K things, all of 15, or I J K tries math fails, and I’m not going to get caught, uh, trying to argue with someone who does it for a living. Um, I, yeah, I mean, I, I don’t think she’s, like he said, he’s not, she’s not that fast on paper either as Bella will, they’re fast, but they’re not as fast as Sean as a race.
So I think Sean’s expectation for what. It, she should be it’s she’s going to be higher. So, you know, we talked about it on Twitter yesterday, overlays and underlays, in my opinion, are in the eye of the beholder. Right. It’s it’s what you think is going to happen and the price that you think it should be.
It’s it’s not the world. It’s it’s you, it’s your opinion. So, um, I, and I liked her too, and I won’t waste a lot of time talking about her, uh, while everyone else kind of mentioned her. The one thing I will say is, I think I told the story where I ran into Bob after I was at, um, when I was at Santa Anita and I was just, you know, trying to like.
Get some information out of them. And I was like, how that Phil, you have the Godolphin one. He’s like, Oh, she’s doing really good. I think she would have beat the boys today if I would have ran her. And that was the race where mucho Gusto one and the slop when, when, uh, when, when the pick six and I think the day that Omaha beach one on the undercard actually.
So I thought that was interesting that Bob obviously feels strongly about her. Um, so she’s definitely an interesting one. Um, my pick is probably gonna, you guys probably don’t know my pick and I don’t think any any of you do. And I, I think you’re going to probably. Kind of maybe throw up in your mouth a little bit, but I like, I like jaywalk really.
I, I, I, I feel like her two races as a two year old are still better than anything that anyone else has. Yeah. But she’s clearly gone off form. She’s clearly not in that form anymore. Don’t you think? She has, but I’ll say this though. I heard last race don’t get the devoted deal was terrible. So I have to pretend that didn’t happen.
No, exactly. But her last race was not horrible. Um, and I, I don’t think that the, the, the, like right up against the rail at Keelan, almost the entire meeting, but especially that weekend was where you want it to be. So I almost want to say she was like against the bias there, um, being down on the inside.
And so I think that she could improve. I think that, um, and, and, and all of these horses, except for positive spirit can be trying that the nine furlongs for the first time doesn’t always happen because the gazelle is obviously nine furlongs, but always shopping isn’t coming. So there’s only one horse that’s run.
Uh, at nine furlongs and that’s positive spirit, um, for Rudolph Rosette. So maybe the, maybe the distance helps or maybe the, the, maybe she loves it. Churchill. Um, she’s been training well from, from all accounts, from what I’ve heard and, you know, she keeps hobby air, you know, John services won this race a couple well years ago.
So I there’s a lot of things about her that makes sense. And, and the reason that I’m picking, I mean, look, I’m not going to single her or anything like that. I’m going to pick her and I’m going to fade Bellfina. Um, I think Bellfina is going to be unbelievably over bet. I think computers are going to go nuts with Simon Callaghan and how hot he’s been.
You know, I think in the last 90 days, he’s 40%, nine for 23. So I think computer wagers and people like that are gonna have algorithms are going to be firing money at this silly. Based on how fast she is, how hot he is, um, and things like that. So, um, I actually didn’t disagree with any of the other horses.
Anybody else said. I think lady Apple is interesting that a price floor tomorrow will be a type that I’ll use in a horse jaywalk and a horse champagne, anyone in a horse. Um, I do not like Serengeti emphasis with the, with the bleeding issue. I don’t feel like I don’t feel like young horse stretching out that bled really bad.
Last time is a great combination. Seems like a recipe for disaster and then restless rider, I think would probably be my second choice. As much as I know Jake is, uh, as much as, as pipe, he was when he was on the show, I feel the same way I’m going to be rooting like heck for George Weaver on Saturday with a Tacoma.
But I just feel like Tacoma had a really advantageous trip on an advantageous track. In that same track as the trap that restless rider was trying to close into. And I think that, uh, I think that she deserves a little bit of an upgrade for that. So she’ll be my second choice in here. And then, uh, we got to see what happens with this AAE got, so we got a second.
The second choice mean line is on the AEU and Dunbar road. So we got to see if that horse gets in. If anybody decides to scratch. Lots to unpack there, there, it’s mostly going to be a little criticisms, which you, you sort of told me not to do today, but I’m going to go ahead and do it anyway. I don’t think computers react to short-term samples like trainers who are nine for 23.
I still think you might be right about computers going nuts for Bellfina just on like body of work speed figures. But where did you get the idea that something like Callahan’s hotness would affect what the CRW dudes are doing? No, I think that, you know, I mean, maybe I’m wrong, but I think that if I were to build a CRW, um, I think I would want the CRW to identify a hot streak.
We, we know we talk about it all the time. Oh, the Barnes is doing well, the barns cold. It’s a thing that, that I hear way too many smart horse players talk about for me to not agree that it, it makes a little bit of sense. And I can see these big CRW teams having little pieces of their algorithm. Letting, you know, letting them know if someone’s really hot or really cold, you know, I think it’s, I don’t know, Sean, like I said, Sean does this every day staring at prices.
And so he might have a better view of how a hot streak will impact someone. But that, and the other reason I’ll say it before I would throw it to Sean is I think in my brain, one of the reasons I thought that was what happened with frenzy fire last year. When he took that extremely big hit late, um, when he was going against Mendelssohn and the race at Belmont.
And I, and I feel like the hot streak was one of the reasons people kept saying that the CRW is we’re so heavy on. Interesting. It’s just nothing I’ve ever heard from anybody I’ve talked to in that world. And further research is needed. And I do want to ask Sean, if you’ve noticed late price drops on hot barn horses, that would be how it would show its fingerprints.
And I also want to know what you think about JFK’s theory. That jaywalk was against the track. The last day I thought she was with. The track and really ran poorly getting pushed as early as the turn. And I wouldn’t better with, uh, with JKS money, but Sean, give me your take on those two issues. Start with the jaywalk track.
Yeah, I did not have that as a, as a bad rail track. Um, so I would, to me, it was just a neutral track and she got, you know, just a fine trip. I think she’s just sort of all off the form. And I, even if she’s on form. I questioned her ability to take the pace pressure that, that she will encounter in this race and still be able to get the job done.
Uh, disagree about the track and the horse. Uh, I’ve got her completely thrown out. What about the CRW question, Sean? And if you noticed that, uh, hot trainers getting late odds drops. Yes and no. I think it depends on the timeframe you’re talking about with Callahan. I think he’s hot enough and it’s been going on for a little while now that they very well could have that have that figured out and priced that in.
But when it’s. It really pays to find hot trainers and just bet them immediately. So, you know, don’t wait until they go. Nine through 23 or whatever. Right. You’ve got to find a way to, to figure out when they’re hot before they’re hot really before it’s obviously hot, the long shot running third, I’ve seen you point that out to me.
Uh, actually I think it was with Rudy Burset that same last day we were together at the track where you picked up on that clearly. A day before the world that his horses were cycling up. And then, you know, we won a bunch of races. It was, and it wasn’t a win that put it in your head. It was a long shot. I think running third horses over performing or underperforming, their odds can sort of tout the trainer as going to be hot or cold from our point of view as day-to-day HorsePlayers, that’s what you need.
And then, yeah, maybe it is possible when it gets so extreme that it does get built into the models to JKS point. It’s a it’s, it’s pretty interesting. I want to get a thought on wagering strategy from each of you JK you’ve already given one in terms of the contest, but just anything on this Oaks card that you feel like offering in terms of a place you’re going to want to spend more money or a specific place that you’re just really excited about.
What, what do you think in terms of that JK? Um, yeah, I think he’s picked six is obviously on these big days are my favorite things to, to get involved with. Um, I think most, you know, my brain operates really well with these stakes type horses because you take a lot of the guesswork out of it. Like, why are they here?
Should they be here? Are they dropping them for a reason? You know, it, you have to deal with those landmines when you’re playing on a normal day at aqueduct or Santa or Gulf stream or Caitlin or New York or whatever. Where a horse is dropping for 50 and is the horse are runners you not a runner you don’t ever really know.
And, and that can make it really hard, hard to have a lot of confidence and really pressed and opinion and put more money into the pool and the investment that doesn’t seem to happen on Derby day on breeders’ cup day. Um, you, you get to have really talented horses where you feel like they want to win.
They’re not there. Um, you know, to, to, to try to pull one over on someone by dropping for attack. So. I love those pools. Um, I feel like I get so busy during Derby that I don’t do a lot of exact to try business. I’m just mostly, um, trying to find winners and extend runs through pick threes and pick fours and fives and sixes.
So, um, this cross-country picks six or across day pick six. Excuse me. They’re doing has gotten me the most excited. I’m excited about that race, that, that bet. And I think that’ll probably be the one that I, uh, put the most money into. And not only because it’s all great ones, but it’s a $2 minimum as well.
Um, instead of the, the 20 cent minimum that we’ll see on the other two pixels, where do you want it? Take a stand in that pick six, if you’re, if you’re prepared to say we’re doing a whole Derby show tomorrow, but for folks listening to the Oaks, obviously they have to put in that ticket today. So without going too into it, because we want folks to tune in to the next show, where do you envision your biggest stand?
Um, it’s going to be tricky. We’ll we’ll see what happens with the other races. Um, I think a possible horse that could be a single, um, like I said, need to see the PPS, having seen the PPS for Saturday yet they’re not drawn, but bricks and mortar, bricks and mortar, I think will, would, would be a horse that, that you can lean on heavily.
And the old Forester, uh, one that, uh, that I would, I would definitely. Um, consider and then, you know, I don’t know, I don’t know exactly who else is going to be in, uh, in the Humana Distaff, but I’ve always been a huge fan of talk booth. And, uh, I think her last race was, was just what she needed. I think she’ll be sitting on a big one.
I don’t know if I can single there. But she’ll be one that I’ll definitely lean on, but bricks and mortar can be a single on the turf race. And it sounds like your spread spread in the two legs to start it. Jake let’s move on to you and a place on the Oaks card that you’re excited to bet, particularly in any wagering strategy thought you might have.
I’m pretty excited to play the, the Oaks Derby double. And I think if I can beat Delfina, I’m going to get it. I’m going to start with the good price. You know, the Derby is so wide open the favorites going to be. Seven to two 41 ish. Yep. So no matter what, so it can hit the oats and diabetes. Bellfina I think, um, you’re, you’re gonna, you have a chance to hit a little, you know, a little bit of a score, you know, going into the Derby and, uh, you know, through the lie that makes them make them more fun.
During these days, I like playing a lot of doubles. Mainly because I don’t like sitting many races out on a good card. So if I’m playing a pick four or five, I haven’t hit the first one. I got a lot of times. I won’t bet though. The next couple of thumbs, if I’m still alive, but on days, like, you know, the big days this Friday and Saturday, a bunch of doubles just, just gives me a lot more action.
But I’m, I’m excited. I’m excited to watch the talk, move to me, run as well and JK setting up in following her ever since the sale. And one of the Rudolph and we saw her and I’m excited. I don’t know who she’s going to be running against. I’m excited to watch her, but yeah, if I can beat Bellfina and I’m can get to the Derby.
Four or five horses and you know, that I liked, and that’s going to be a lot of fun. Let you get away with just that four or five horses in the Derby comment, Jake, but we’re not going to do it now. I’m going to get back to you and Sean at the end of the show to hold your feet to the fire a little bit for a technical, uh, Derby selection for bragging purposes, at least.
But first I want to hear Sean’s general thought on wagering strategy on Oaks day, and then I’ve got a couple of silly questions and then we’ll get to that. Uh, Sean, what do you think. You know, to me that the card on Friday really lends itself to the horizontal wagers. That’s, you’ve got some obvious, full price winners that you can press and some races where you can spread and try to catch a little bit of a price.
So the way I envisioned playing. I’m going to play the Friday, pick six aggressively and single the horses. We all had talked about St. Link and then, you know, come back with pick fours and picked fives and, and Plato’s less aggressively and use those as hedges and covers for the pick six. Or you can do that in a way to where, if you’re a hundred percent cry.
You can cash pick four, pick five and pick six and have just a huge day. You’re 50%, right. And one of these singles get speed or two of them get beat. You can still have an okay day and get your money back. Maybe you can still have a great day if, if the right ones get beat and you, and you have. So that’s the way I envisioned playing Friday.
And then I agree with Jake, I’m going to play an Oaks Derby deductible. Um, played very few vertical, vertical wagers on Friday. We’ll get back to you in a minute for your thought on the Derby. But I did. I said silly question. I do have a good silly one for Jake, but we’ll put that back in the queue behind a serious question.
We’re just curious. What’s been going on with black type thoroughbreds. If you have any news to report, if you’ve been actively, we bought a New York bread missing in Paris in the us. That’s going to go to George leaver. Uh, we partnered with twin creeks racing in Parkland, thoroughbreds on, on, on him.
They’ll step up to Saratoga just after Derby. We also having two year old down here in the just breeze last week, his name is southerner and he’ll run in may and, uh, at Belmont. And, um, so those are our two, two year olds. And we’re going to try to add one more. And we’re trying to get a deal done now, privately.
Uh, if that happens, I’ll let you know the ready-made horse. Those are our, uh, we have three horses on the farm, uh, that are two are training, one needs 30 more days, and then get back. So hopefully this summer we’ll have. No, two, two, maybe three and then, uh, two or three of the ones on a farm now. So up five or six, hopefully to go to Saratoga, West and summer fall campaign.
Other than the two year olds, like I said, the one southerner he’s about he’s getting ready to run. He, he worked 35 and two the other day keen run. Good at nice soapy. We’ll get one more work in and it came in and shifted New York. Um, Remember the New York better. We just bought ops. It worked great. And there’s so much money in New York bred program.
So hopefully, you know, hope he has an open company type horse, but it’s not, you can really take advantage of the New York, the New York prices. Hey, if you need a representative to go out and record represent black type at the New York tracks ever when you’re not around Jake I’ll, uh, I’ll, I’ll go and shake anybody’s hand and you know, I’ll wear a cool hat.
It could be a lot of fun. That’d be, it’d be a ton of fun. I doubt. Uh, No, we just had my first child 13 days ago. So I doubt I’ll be running up on a quick trip to New York and back for a maiden race, but I’m going to take you up on that if I can’t, even if I do make it, you’ll be representing us. Awesome.
How is, uh, how is fatherhood treating you so far? How are you guys? You know, everything’s good. Uh, everyone always tells you. You’re not going to get rest. It’s going to be difficult that first month, you know, and you don’t. You know, you kind of, you know, you’d say, okay. Okay. Okay. And then now it’s happening.
There were definitely a big understatement, not sleeping at all. So all those pics I gave out terrible. I’m just going to blame it on the last, the last, the last two weeks. And that’s been great. It’s been, it’s been a good, a good addition. And, uh, but yeah, life changed pretty quick in a very positive way.
Well, I’m excited to meet the new addition that’s for sure. So J K made a reference before to the, this little best friends club that you guys have down there in Lexington, but we all know that you can only have one best friend. So Jake I’ll just ask you very bluntly. Who is your best friend? Bye buddy down in Texas.
Same as Sam.
Oh yeah, he can my buddy bit, but if I had a pick pick between John and , Oh man, I’m going to, I’m going to go ahead and do some void, avoid, avoid this. I think that was where I was. I could probably say JK, just cause if I said Sean JK would abuse this for the next couple of months, Sean would take it a lot better.
I like your logic. I like your logic there. Um, all right. It’s time to talk Derby. K. Your thoughts on the Derby. We’re going to get on tomorrow’s show. We’ve got. Duke and Paul Mattise lined up going to be a lot of fun. We’ll be recording that at about 11:00 AM Eastern on Wednesday, depending on how long we go should be up by 1230 or one looking forward to that.
Obviously people can go back and listen to the monster pod. It’s pinned to the SoundCloud profile. We’ve been bumping it on Twitter, but can’t let. Uh, Jake and Sean get outta here with, Oh, and I’ll spread in the Derby and doubles. No, no, no. We need a pack. We need something that we can trumpet or make fun of you for depending on how things go.
And Sean, we’re going to start with you. No, before we start, I want to know who this son of a bitch.
A little broken heart in here. I just don’t. I don’t know if I can, I don’t know if I can give them a valid tape. Now I’m going to ask you to pull it together. Regroup here. Um, I’m gonna, I’m gonna, I’m gonna give that pass the test for the Derby as my top pick. That’s consistent with what we’ve talked about.
What have you, is there more that you like than the last time TASA just came up on the end, the money airwaves. Yeah. You know, I, I really just like the progression of his, his races and his speed figures and he, he improved last time, but he did it under duress. He had just a brutal trip, was still able to gather himself and finish nicely.
I just think he’s a nice guy. Course that’s getting better and better, and it is in great hands to continue getting better. Um, so I’m going to make him my top pick. And then I think Omaha beach is certainly the horse to beat, especially if he drives it, draws outside. Question for you on Tacitus Sean, before we move it back to Jake, you’re so good at identifying these horses with improving figure patterns.
How often are those horses coming off of bad trips? I would think that that shows even more character to be able to have those improving numbers throughout the race. When you have such a difficult go of things. No, I don’t have an answer for exactly how often that happens, but it’s certainly more powerful when it does happen.
You know, I like to see, you know, I love to see a horse that I think is improving the, when they’re improving and did it under adverse circumstances, you know, they were against the bias or they had a trip or, you know, did it against, uh, a bad race flow. That to me means a lot more than just a horse. That’s improving.
Um, and it means to me that they’re, they’re more likely to continue to improve. So, you know, it, it happens often enough, but it’s a, it’s a powerful angle in my, in my opinion, Jake Ballis, I’m going to hold your feet to the fire for one horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby, one horse. I’m going to go with good off spinoff.
You laugh when, um, the entire, last winter always dreaming, he did the same kind of thing off the layoff went to Tampa for an easy allowance. Well, did the same thing here with Johnny going, uh, pause, taking a lot of heat this year, as far as his two loaves, and then three-year-old not being great, blah, blah, blah.
It’s about pounding. I don’t think that distance would be an issue. The mayor’s a great one. Winter she’s won the eight Kwan, I think Pletcher and Manny Franco, he’s going to get it. Hopefully it’ll get his first, every way in Omaha beaches. And of course, to beat in my opinion. But if I had to pick one horse with some value, I’m going to go spin off and I’ll be rooting me.
You mentioned always dreaming, standing over with our friends at WinStar farm JK. I don’t want your Derby pick just yet, but I do want a closing thought from you to wrap up this Kentucky Oaks edition of the, in the money players podcast. I’m going to remind people, this is just a favor for us as, as, as a and a favor for yourself as well.
But, um, we, you know, we have the NYRA bets, uh, codes and Pete will be able to give them to you the NYRA bet codes for signing up for NYRA bet. You need to have an IRA vets account for the summer. Anyways. So you can play the late pick five and even in the spring. Um, so make sure if you don’t have one of those, this is a great opportunity for Derby and also keep them select, get you one of those as well.
We have a coach for that. If you can get these signup bonuses for going to different ADWS and get a free a hundred bucks here, 300 bucks there. It’s great to do that on a weekend like this, when you’re going to be betting a lot anyway, smart Derby. So, um, it’s this is like, I mean, honestly it is going to help us by getting you to sign up, but it’s going to help you to, by getting a couple hundred bucks here or there for free.
Um, if they’re going to give it to you for signing up. So. Spread some of that money out and I wrote bets and also Caitlin select helps us helps you. Everybody’s happy. Um, and then, uh, looking forward to tomorrow, it’s going to be fun to have the, the brothers auto. If we can get them arguing back and forth, they don’t do it very much, but when they do, it’s kind of funny.
Well, we’ll try that. We’ll try to stoke those competitive fight. We’ll get that sibling rivalry going right. You mentioned those promo codes. There’s a little spot for NYRA bets at the end of the show, the one there for this week, money 25. I’ll let the, you hear the promotion in the ad. That’s going to run at the end of the show for Caitlin select.
If you want to sign up and have the opportunity to get some special promotional opportunities, I believe they’re still active, even though the meet is over the code there for us is ITM 19. It really does help us out. When you use our promo codes, let our partners and sponsors know where you heard about them.
And that’s how you can do that. And with that, we’re going to close out this show. I want to thank Jake Ballis of black type thoroughbreds. For more information about thoroughbred ownership, checkout black type tb.com and feel free to reach out to Jake with any questions you might have. He’s a, he’s a personable fellow and who knows you may soon vault up on his best friend’s list ahead of both JK and Sean.
Thank you, Jake. Thanks for having me and Sean Borman. Great work as always loved the stuff, especially when it came to wagering strategy. We wish you Godspeed this weekend and hope to have you back soon. Absolutely. Thanks for having me, Steve. All right. And of course thank you to JK, but thanks. Most of all, to all of you for listening.
Other special shout outs to our partners at the thoroughbred retirement foundation and 10 strike racing. This show has been a production of in the money media in the money media’s business manager is drew Kotani. I’m Peter Thomas foreign Italian. May you win all your Kentucky Oaks photos.
At the top of the show, I mentioned the special Kentucky Derby party I’ll be doing with my friends at Treadwell park West. And I mentioned, there’s going to be a gambling element. Yes, there will be some charity raffles benefiting the sponsor of this show, the thoroughbred retirement foundation. But you’re also going to be able to wager via the NYRA bets app.
And I wanted to tell everybody about a couple of Derby specials. NYRA bets are running. You can access these using the promo code money. Two five, the first one, you bet, $25 on your Derby horse to win. And if that horse finishes second or third, you get your $25 back. And we also have the $200 new member bonus bet.
200 within 14 days and get a $200 bonus. You can do one. You can do both. The choice is yours. We’re going to be sending out via Twitter, a special landing page to join NYRA bets. If you haven’t already. For more information about these and other promotions. Check out NYRA bets.com.
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