FINALLY, it’s time for our official Kentucky Derby show where we go over all of the undercard stakes and take a deep dive into the big one. Pro horseplayers and contest world legends Duke and Paul Matties are here and they don’t hold anything back, digging deep into their own knowledge to give views on the horses running on Saturday and a few ideas on how to bet them. Enjoy!
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***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***
Where are you watching the Kentucky Derby? If you’re in the New York area, I highly recommend you. Come watch it with me at Treadwell park West on 42nd street in Manhattan. We’re going to be having a great party, no cover, no minimum drink specials, food specials, bourbon tastings, live music, gambling.
Basically all the good things in life. I’m going to start it off at about 2:00 PM on Saturday. Come join us. Treadwell park, West 42nd street location.
Your listening to the, in the money players podcast.
Hello, and welcome to the, in the money players podcast. This is show number 38. It is Wednesday May 1st as we record. I’m your host, Peter Thomas for Nitel back with you in the Brooklyn bunker. Once again for a show I am as excited about as any show we’ve ever done. And I mean that sincerely, I have pen and paper at the ready, getting.
Prepared to jot down all the notes that we’re going to hear from today’s panel of guests. We’ll start off with the usual guest. Really. He’s not a guest at all. He’s a cohost. He’s no longer on the planet, Texas. He has touched down in Louisville. Maybe, maybe somewhere else in Kentucky. He’ll tell us in a minute, he’s the people’s champion.
Jonathan kinship. What’s up JK PTF. What’s going on? Yeah, I’m in, I’m in Lexi Vegas and, uh, Uh, excited, obviously Derby week has always a ton of fun. Uh, funny enough, I didn’t tell you this story yet, Pete and I didn’t tell that our other guests a story too. They’ll laugh at this, but, uh, rich April, who was on the show before double R, he texted me the other day and he says, He goes, man, do you even talk on this podcast?
All I hear is Pete talking to you, just the face of it. And I laughed. I’m like really? I thought I talked way too much on the show today will be one of those days. I’m going to back up a little bit and let the, uh, let the, our guests talk. Cause I think it’s a big privilege for our listeners. Absolutely. I think that he must have specifically been referring to the monster pod where you were gone for long stretches of a JK.
So clearly you, even you, as, as loquacious as you are, even, you don’t have the ability to get lines in when you’re not on the call, but with that, let’s turn it to the attention of our guests. They’ve been here before. They’ll be here again. It’s such a treat to have them together. I’ll introduce them individually.
We will start off with a California based professional. Horseplayer you’ve seen his name. On the leaderboards of many live bankroll events. So he’s kind of dialing back on that based on what he told me the last time we spoke, I’m talking about pro player, Duke Matisse. How are you Duke? What’s going on, Pete?
Everything’s good here. Sun shining about 70 degrees. Everything’s good in Cali. Are you making your way to Louisville for the Derby itself? You told me this last time, but I’ve already, it’s gotten out of my head. Uh, Louisville, I’m leaving tomorrow around one 30. I get there about 10 30, 10 30 at night, tomorrow night.
So I get a lot of work done on the plane. I’ve done some, I’ve done some work already, but I’ll get more work done on the plane. Yeah, it’s an evolving process. And we thank you for taking time out of your handicapping to give your initial thoughts to us. As we know very often, it’s those first thoughts that are the best thoughts.
So very much looking forward to picking your brain and joining Duke and J K we have returning to the end, the money airwaves professional player himself, NHC champion, Paul Matisse, Jr. Paul, how are you? All right. Good to talk to you, Pete. How’s everything there. Things are good. It is really very wintery.
Spring weather here in New York. I’m hoping we get a break for Derby day. I’m hosting this party at Treadwell park on 42nd street. And I talked to the manager there and I was like, Hey, if the weather’s bad, maybe it doesn’t matter what that means. People want to won’t mind sitting inside all day. He was like, no dude, bad weather meets people, stay home.
So we’re hoping that things turn around and we get a good turnout. I wish I was going to be with Duke and J K under the twin spires. Paul, what do you usually do for Derby day? I’m still in the office. I’m not going anywhere. Sometimes I visit her sometimes. Don’t I, I, uh, it can be distracting sometimes there every day because you know, everybody wants to take part of it.
So yeah. But, uh, it’s always fun. Let me ask you this unscheduled question, but as somebody who stays pretty focused on the gambling aspect on Derby day and with the immense amount of time between races at Churchill downs, we’ve got our partner tracks like Woodbine and Monmouth who are going to be, uh, who are going to be running cards.
And yeah. Obviously, that seems like a nice way to fill in the time between races at Churchill, for those of us betting simulcasts. But in general, Paul, do you find that the opportunities are better worse or the same at the other tracks on Derby day? When so much of the bandwidth and attention of HorsePlayers is zeroed into Churchill?
Well, I’ll be flaring everywhere, everywhere else. I’ll be looking. Um, it’s gone the other direction though. It’s. Yeah, I’ve been talking to, you know, to other players about this and, uh, in general, but all the focus is getting towards these big Saturdays. And, and, uh, even though that the other tracks all run on Saturdays, you know, the money, like you said, gets all in one, one place.
So it’s, uh, it’s become different. You know, in the old days, I can remember, we would bet the, these other tracks in full force on Derby day. And it was, uh, I remember when Duke and I were in Vegas, you know, we used to love this day, mainly because of the other tracks, you know, and it wasn’t an afterthought, but it was, it was definitely just part of the day.
And we’re now, you know, your main focus almost has to be on the. Um, uh, Churchill Duke. Do you feel like you’re missing out being at Churchill on bedding, the other tracks, do you try to pay attention through, uh, other outlets or is it sort of like Paul saying at this point, you don’t really need to worry about that.
It’s really, it’s difficult to follow the other tracks on Derby day. Um, when you’re at the Derby, they don’t do much of a way of simulcasting, especially in the, in the places that I’ve sat the last few years. So I usually have to. Meet with a maitre D and find a remote control and change the TV. If I really want to bet something other than, or, or use my phone and watch it on my phone because Churchill doesn’t, uh, I don’t think they really even care that there’s other tracks that are running on that day.
They’re just, they’re just, they’re just so focused on one thing and that’s, and that’s Derby and Oaks day. Well, let’s turn our attention to this steaks on Derby day, we’ll start off by looking at the sixth race, which is the Humana Distaff. Duka. We’ll start off with you for a quick thought on this one.
We’ve got Marley’s freedom returning to the races in here, along with one of J K’s favorites. Talk, move to me. How do you see this one? Unfolding? Yeah, Marley’s, freedom’s definitely the horse to beat. I’m not sure she’s as good as she was last year. Um, I probably won’t bet on her because I think she’ll be somewhere in the range of four to five.
Um, I think it’s interesting that Baffert runs another horse in the race and I’m not usually a big on jockey changes, but, but that, or, um, Is that Joe Talamo and picked up Rosario. And I thought that horse ran really well last time, um, in a race where. I think it was a Hollendorfer horse, just freaked on the lead and ran it and just ran away.
And the source was running, running at her, but it just couldn’t couldn’t get through, I think she’s going to, um, I think she’s going to do well in here depending on, I mean, I don’t know if it’s going to be what you’re talking about. Rain on Derby day. So. She’s never been on a wet track. Um, I’m a little interested in the other backward, emboldened six Bolden for Duke there.
We’ll go to JK next. Do you talk yesterday on our Oak show, which has gotten some nice feedback and we encourage folks to check that out while it’s still, uh, relevant. Uh, you mentioned the possibility of using talk to me in here, but that was, I think when you were just looking at an overnight JK, now that you’ve looked at some PPS, what do you think.
Yeah. I mean, I like voo, obviously she’s a affiliate and following since last year, um, the interesting part about this race is this is going to be the third leg of that two day pick six, the $2 pick six that has all the great ones in it. And I think this’ll probably be the leg that gets the most singles, um, with people trying to lean on Marley’s freedom, you know, on figure, she, she looks like she’s going to be pretty tough.
And I think even the, the, the fact that she’s now. You know, she’s kind of had the route experiences and now she’s kind of cutting back to the seven, which I think probably works for her. So yeah, she’s one that I think you probably need to make sure you include, uh, you know, I wouldn’t talk you out of trying to single her, but I actually liked the other Baffert that, that Duke mentioned as well.
The other horse that I’ll give you that I thought was interesting. It was Amy’s challenge her races at, uh, at Keeneland, this, this spring, and then also at, at, uh, at Oaklawn. Well, we’re all pretty impressive. And I, and I think she’s, um, kind of sitting on a big race. I think she’s a, a type of Philly that has always been wanting to sprint and they have some experiences last year, trying to stretch her out.
I think they kind of found what she needs to be doing. So this is a tough one for me. I won’t be singling. I don’t trust them all these freedom. One of her worst races was on this one. You mentioned four horses. JK. Do you have a top level line of A’s or are you just going to use all four equally and treat it like a spread?
Um, I mean, I’ll, I’ll let VU be my talk, my top pick, but I’m gonna look, this is a survival race for me. I’m not going to try to get cute. You know, I’ll try to find some, some other places to take a stand. I think these fillies are all kind of evenly matched to a certain extent talk VU Amy’s challenge and Bolden, and Marley’s freedom being the outlier.
But, uh, also like Duke said, probably going to be over bet. Paul, how do you see this one? I want to say Jay Kay’s phone and see what the text from Bedford says. Did you get the real time? What’s that? I know it doesn’t. He says he jokes that he, I know he’s getting those texts from him. I’m with the other guys, the main contenders, the races at Keeneland that the Amy’s challenge, spice, perfection race, and the talk Buddha knee race.
They didn’t come up fast enough to where you can. Have any confidence in betting against Marley’s freedom, you know, and you know, I think that I like three horses in general, all three of them, but, um, there’s not enough reason to really play them off their last races or any reason to believe that they’re going to be fast enough to beat Marley’s freedom, you know, and I’m with Duke and JK on the other bed for too.
I think it’s really interesting. He’s running her and I thought she ran real well. You know, um, if the track, the only thing I will say is if the track is maybe speed favoring or, um, You get a feel? I think they’re going to let any challenge go. I don’t think they’re going to be able to run with her. I think I could run with her the, um, the three and the four, but, uh, my guess is with the, uh, Jackie, that’s not in with the normal group.
I think the let Amy’s challenge go. So if, um, if you’re going to beat Bedford, I think maybe the track might theater. Interesting. All right. Let’s move on to the Distaff mile. And Paul, we’ll keep it with you for your thoughts on this one. Know, I, I love the fact that these first two races we’re going to talk about on the podcast.
We’re going to, everybody’s going to pick Bedford and then, and then, uh, Chad right off the bat, we’re going to be real. Uh, we’re going to be real clever and the needs first been driving me crazy. I don’t really like the, uh, the, uh, the six chat. I liked the other one. I liked the in environs in the, uh, of the, of the chat.
I think it’d be more pricing. Has more of a chance, um, you know, the, the bread Cox stores bowl recall. I think it was real sharp since, uh, since he’s taken over. I just want, I just worry that there’s gonna be enough pays for what, uh, I found her interesting, and that is a legend. We’ve got real good at the end of last year, and this is a real, uh, Active competence by, by putting foot her in this, in this race right off the bat.
So, you know that that’s probably my group, you know, I think they’re the main contenders, but I, I think we can beat the, uh, the more Bedshed in the race. Probably J K what are you going to do in the Distaff mile? Well, I was going to try to make a joke, but I didn’t want to, I didn’t want to give too much credit, but, uh, the trainer of the two horse, when I looked at it, I giggled a little bit.
Um, I will say that
I was going to train a horse. Oh my God. Move on, please. Okay. Okay. I, I look, I signed a contract a long time ago to bet Proctor’s ledge. Every time she runs. And she really let me down last time, I think it was a pick six day and we singled her and. And she really had no excuse not to run by valedictorian.
So, um, I think I’m going to try to get out of that contract, uh, this weekend. And, and I like, daddy’s a legend to her race that she had at Churchill when her in Russia. Well, uh, lining last year we’re were ding dong and they set it up for, uh, uh, for the Philly. Uh, what was her name? Tony, uh, twin net, whatever.
So I think that he’s a legend is definitely sitting on one. Um, I know that they were trying to Dodge a lot of spots last year at a mile and an eighth. I think George is convinced that she’s a miler and that’s kind of her limitation. So, um, daddy is a legend, where is where I’m going to lean. Um, and then the other chat environs I thought was interesting.
A horse ran really well at Cayman exploded there and got a nice time form U S figure and, uh, and did it well, did it the right way for Chad? I think that horse could be extremely live. This is kind of a little bit of a spread race for me as well. Um, but, uh, my top picks would be, daddy is a legend.
Interesting. So to sort of antidepressant use opinions, and I think Duke tipped his hand that he’s also a little bit antidepressant use here. Who are you going to land on too? Yeah. Um, uh, I’m, I’m definitely against the six visually. I didn’t take that horse was as good as a lot of people thought it was. I do like the other, the other Chad, who was going to be a price environs, but, but I think this race lacks a lot of pace.
So I was leaning towards, uh, going to JKS course that he always, but, um, that he’s not going on, which is gotta be a good angle.
I like practice. So I think she’ll stay up close and I think a valedictorian is going to get, you know, probably be on the lead. And I think practice legend. We had a good position in that race has already produced, um, two winners already that both came back and impressed impressed me. So I’m going to go with proctors allege.
I love the J K off angle. That’s some, that’s some good, uh, good handicapping. And, and just when you’re looking at these turf races is something that I actually thought about when I started looking at them, um, with the weather that might come. Um, I think Duke and Paul can probably speak to this better than I can, but the inside of the turf course, when it rains bad, cannot, it can sometimes be a little bit tricky.
And I know in the past it has been so keep an eye on that because you know, that that would definitely negatively affect a horse like Proctor’s ledge. And then as we talk about some of these later turf races, there’s some nice horses that are drawn down inside. If it gets a little boggy down there, it’s really a disadvantageous place to be.
We’ll let the Matisse brothers comment on that when we get to the next turf race, but I want to move it on to the grade one Churchill downs and a horse. I’ve just one of my favorite horses who I’ll just have to give a shout for. And I really think looks good in the spot. Number two, limousine liberal. Is going to be one that I’m pretty strong on in the Churchill downs.
I expect to try and get some overseas money down at the crazy overlaid, tend to one that came out in the first books over there. Don’t think we’ll be seeing that on the day, but that’s just a horse that even at the five to one in the morning line, I’d be taking at least a nibble Duke. We’ll start this one with you.
Who is your pick in the Churchill downs? This race is extremely difficult. Um, even though, uh, meat delay has a huge figure. He’s never run seven for a long time. Um, so I’m not so sure I can, I can lean on that horse. He did, he did run really fast. Last time. I’m kind of looking for bombs in this race and I’m just gonna throw.
Probably names and numbers that I think, um, the one I wish he didn’t drop down on the rail to share. I think that, or who has a huge figure last time too. I think. If he can get it, some kind of trip. I think he’s definitely gonna hit the try. Um, another bomb. I thought that horse got horrible ride. Last time was fun.
Contested the nine. And he might be in a good position sitting just off the speed in this race, um, with Johnny V and, uh, I do think Whitmore also has a chance, even though he dropped post 12, but, um, I’m gonna, I’m gonna fool around with the one in the night. All right, Paul, what about you?
Well, this is some great races and it, the handicap. Okay.
I’ve been, I’ve been going back and forth in this race and all over the place, but I think it got to take a chance against the speeds. I know, I know we, we, uh, we hope for that all the time in this country and it never. You know, I, I think you have to throw it, throw out the six and seven and, uh, and even the four who ran really good last time in the, in the, uh, I think you’ll rate in this race.
And, uh, it’s a, it’s a great race. I’m, I’m, I’m confused in exactly how to play it, but, uh, I’m going to Duke. I think that we don’t test uncontested. I think he’s got it. He’s going to get lost in this race. And I think he’s going to be in a good spot. And I’m with you in the limousine liberal. I just hope that they don’t over bet them, the Kentucky people love him.
And he’s got a great record at Churchill, but I’m definitely using those two. And I’m definitely using them Whitmore to, with more likes to being on the outside. And, uh, if this racing gets spread out. So I guess those three would probably be my, uh, Would it be my contenders, but I’m telling you, I wouldn’t talk anybody off anybody in this race.
It’s a, it’s a great race,
an interesting handicapping puzzle. And it features the horse that JK is on record as saying, well, when the Breeder’s cup sprint, is that where you’re sticking? No, I wish no I can’t. I agree with, with, with Paul, I, I, this race. Has to fall apart. And I know we always say they have to fall apart and then someone wires the field, but like this one has to fall apart.
And, uh, as a card carrying member of the speed of the speed club, it’s I just can’t go there here. And, and, uh, Duke mentioned a horse that I, that I liked a lot in here, and that was, do share down on the rail. We talk about Mike maker and how capable of a trainer he is. Um, he’s got iRead Ortiz and this race for whatever reason.
And I saw iRODS name that reminded me of Shamrock Rose last year. And the, uh, the filly that won out at Del Mar I’m going to go blank, but the way that he wrote those skills or those races were just scrambles to the front, he took back, he made one, run, one, run, closing any one with two 50 to one shots.
And I just think that this horse isn’t going to be 50 to one, but I think he can kind of get that same inside out trip. When all these other freaky fast horses are running at each other, going seven. And I think he’ll be able to pick up the pieces. Limousine liberal makes a ton of sense, but he’s going to be the second choice and I don’t think that’s right.
I don’t think he should be the second choice. Um, and you know, obviously he’s got the great record. Like Paul mentioned, he’s won six times at a nine starts, but, uh, do share for me will be my top choice. And then I’ll be looking for anything that I think will have a pulse. That’s the 16th. Remind me to send that.
Text to our friends in the UK JK before I post this podcast. All right. With that tend to one Liberty liberal. All right, let’s go to the American turf. There’s only one person to go first in this race. This race has been his personal bet. Anwaar knocking him out of major scores, couple of years in a row, rather than tell us who you like JK tell us who you’re tossing.
So we know who to key. You know what, that’s funny, this race has been awful for me, but it’s also one of my it’s also Divisadero won this race. Also been grateful. That’s true. Um, you know, digital age is a horse that the figures, aren’t what I really want them to be. But visually the horse has, has been, uh, extremely impressive.
Uh, his race at Tampa, I think double R actually tipped him here before his last race. I, I thought he was impressive and it’s Chad and it’s. Running on green stuff. Um, and I think there’s enough of horses in here and the figures are low enough that he won’t be like crazy over bet. Um, I do, because I’m a little bit concerned about the ground.
If the inside becomes a problem, I envisioned this horse kind of getting a pocket trip, so that’s not necessarily ideal. And then Henley’s joy, um, is one that I’ll make my top choice. I thought Henley’s joy had some really nice races. A two-year-old some graces as a two old. That almost kind of fit with these.
And, uh, and so that’s always an angle that’s when, you know, do kind of, I always give Duke a shout out for kind of introducing me to that idea of the two year olds turning three. And if they can kind of find those figures that they ran as a two year old, I think Henley’s joys kind of had some excuses. I wasn’t crazy about the ride last time hard.
And there’s nobody from that, a particular family or sent out with those, that particular colored silks that knock us out this year. We should double check, but I don’t, I don’t see any Donegal horses in here, but I’ll double check wall a while the fellows give their thoughts. All right, we’ll go first to Paul for your thought on the American turf.
Well, I like the words of the Jack that JK mentioned that I’m definitely gonna use both of them, but I kinda liked that the mot horse, the cancer creed, I think it’s a really, uh, an ambitious placing and, uh, I like the way she’s progressing. And I think a lot of these other Phillies are kind of what you see with what you get with maybe the exception of Henley’s joy.
I agree with JK had had a terrible ride in her first race as a three, but I think castle creed might be the improving somebody be the now or so. Uh, and I liked the fact that, uh, that might run here. This is, this is an aggressive spotting, I think. Um, I think she has a good chance. Duke. What’s your view? Uh, another really difficult race.
I mean, I think the problem might be with, with Henry’s joy might be she, the one race you ran on a softer, she didn’t run at all. Um, I’m worried that, you know, if we get us off to her, I mean, I liked the way she ran last time. I thought she got, I agree with JK. She got a horrible ride and, uh, was really running at the end.
She was, I mean, on a firm turf she’d definitely might Tufts. He is definitely my top choice, but, um, I’m a little worried that it’s going to rain, so I gotta have a backup plan. So I’m like, w I liked Paul’s horse a little bit constant creed. He’s definitely improving. I had the worst run and really good at Gulf stream.
Last time, even though that race hasn’t been too productive, I’m a little worried about that too. So that being said, I think maybe seismic wave might be a horse that, um, is also improving that when a golf should meet, he really ran. I mean, Amazingly fast at the end of that race last time. So maybe I’ll go with them on a firm turf.
Okay. Next up is the Pat day mile. We’re going to have a big favorite in here in the form of Instagram. And I would think, or horse we’ve spent a lot of time talking about on this show. Duke will keep it with you for your thoughts on if Instagram can turn things around in the Pat day mile. Yeah. The one turn mile, I think for Instagram has probably hit them between the eyes.
He’s probably. Probably going to stock or control the speed, maybe stock the, the sprinter there, the four and just open up. But I got a few bombs in this race that, uh, I think, uh, one of these guys might also might pick. I like frolic more. Who’s going to be really long. He, uh, keen on last time he closed up the rail, which I didn’t think was necessarily the place to be.
And he’s going to be a big price in Dallas. Stewart always seems to have something that shows up on. On Derby day that that runs first or second at a huge price. So frolic Maura is a good bomb in there. I like that idea. Very botch. Uh, was there another, you wanted to mention to Duke? I think you mentioned there were a couple of long shots to possibly, uh, either mix in underneath or take savers with their money, I think is a good underneath course, too.
He ran in the Louisiana Derby, which I thought was a really good, um, Three-year-old race and, uh, he didn’t have any trip at all. And there he was like four or five wide all the way around. And I think a JTC, John, the Clockers got good workouts on the track. So he might be trading. Good. Mr. Money is definitely a year.
Paul, where are you in the past day mile? Mr. Money? Um, you’ve named it for my brother. Do the money. Yeah, I wish, um, I like to, I’d like to source a lot in this race. I think it’s a perfect scenario. Um, I’m kind of, uh, I’ve been trying to talk myself in the feed, Instagram completely, you know, uh, I didn’t like his race in the, in the race at Gotham.
However, you know, that. That’s the, uh, the other Baffert horse there. And, uh, mine controller are pretty good milers. I can’t believe them. Neither one of them is in this race actually. But, uh, um, but I still, I, I’m not convinced these, this seems like a desperation move. I don’t like this. I don’t like the placement here and he’s gonna be way, way over bet.
So I’m going to keep Mr. Money. Um, I might use Instagram defensively, but for the most part I’m going for home run here. I’m gonna use, uh, There was the Duke mentioned a lot more. I’m going to use the other horse out the, in a Derby high Creek hog Creek hustle. He got to be about 40 or 50 to one, definitely using him.
And, uh, I think I’m going to use Manny while the other horse, uh, fairgrounds, uh, the Cadillac horse, uh, I’m gonna throw him into, and I think he, one turn mile mate might fit him. So, uh, I think there’s a good opportunity to maybe take a shot against Instagram, lots of good ideas at prices. They’re looking to key a 12 to one shot mixing in some bombs as well.
Don’t necessarily want to get beat by the very logical Instagram, but sometimes it’s just a question of betting on prices rather than horses. And that might lead you to fade him interesting stuff there, Paul, for sure. J K. Well, I tell you, when I first looked at the PPS, I saw the 14 last judgment. And I saw the ownership group and I was like, dang, I didn’t know that Duke.
I got a horse and send them to Todd because it’s massive stables. And I thought, I thought it said Matisse. When I first saw it, I was like, man, there’s stuff in their game on here. Um, I will say this about last judgment. If you look at, if you, if you check out, okay, it’s the TV and you see all the horses he’s been working with, he’s been working with good horse.
He’s worked with spinoff. He worked with cutting humor, both running in the Derby. He worked with walk-off who won a race at aqueduct. He worked with copper town who we’ve talked about on this show a ton of times. Um, Presto is another horse that got bet last time. So I think that this horse is interesting working for Todd and it is Todd.
Um, it’s not the typical Todd that you see in here where, where everyone’s running to bet on him, but I think he’s got, you know, he, he seems like he’s quick enough that he could get the job done. I worry about Instagram in the same way that, that, uh, that Paul and Duke mentioned. I, I wonder if this, this, uh, we want to just give him a break so that we can win the Derby plan was really something else and he hasn’t come back quite the same horse.
So, um, you know, I think he had an excuse a little bit last time. I think the guys will probably agree as well that. Um, maybe the trip he got it at Santa Anita wasn’t ideal and he isn’t a good position, but he is going to be unbelievably over bet. I love the angle of all the Louisiana horses that those guys mentioned, uh, for my official pick though.
Um, uh, I’m going to, I’m going to stick with Instagram, um, as my official pick, but please understand there’ll be no singling here. I’m going to be using all the horses that the guys mentioned. All right. And that does to be fair sound like what Duke was saying as well. Paul seemed like the one who was more in the let’s fade the thing camp.
Um, but I don’t want to get too bogged down there cause we’ve got a lot more to do on this show. And next up we’ve got the turf classic JK. Let’s keep it simple and keep it with you. Yeah. So this race is interesting. Um, you know, the Chad’s are obviously, uh, ones that you want to have to pay attention to raging bull and bricks and mortar.
Um, it’s weird for me with bricks and mortar, because I didn’t really like him going into the Pegasus race. And then he explodes and wins by two on, on very soft ground. So keep that in mind. And then the race that he had at the fairgrounds. I think it was kind of the ride. I think the ride wasn’t very aggressive and I think that probably had a lot to do with it being a lot closer than it was, but I wasn’t really impressed there.
So I like the horse outside of him. And that’s next shares? Um, the horse will run on soft ground. Um, the horses run well in Kentucky before he wanted Caitlin in the past. So Richie Baltis obviously can, can, can get him ready to run and ship out here. And I just think he’ll be interesting, a little bit forgotten.
And, uh, somewhere in the back of my mind, I remember those silks and court vision, uh, beating me at some point in the Derby and, uh, on the Derby undercard in this race. I liked next shares in this spot and he’ll be my top pick, but I’m gonna use horses like synchrony as well. Um, and I’m gonna, and I’m going to try to beat raging bull.
Anytime that horses in you, you, you hate that raging bull. My friend, Christina Helmers was one of my good friends. She loves that horse. You hate the horse. I don’t know why you don’t give him a break. You know, he’s he won plenty last year. Christina is going to have to change her last name. If she wants me to get on board with this horse raging bull, she’s coming the Derby party, by the way.
So that’s, um, I’m looking forward to telling her how mean you were about her favorite horse Duke. Who’s going to win the turf classic. That’s gotta be raging bull. You’re going fade JK angled twice on the card. Yeah, no, I’m not going to do that. I can do that to JK, even though, I mean, you, when you make statements like that, they always seem to come through.
Um, I’m going to go with synchrony. I like the fact that, uh, um, they’re adding blinkers. I think you’re going to stay closer. I thought he got a terrible ride. Last time you switched to Johnny V. Um, I hope the turf course is playing that outside, you know, stock or clothes or thing. Cause he loves to do that.
So I mean, if it’s wet, it definitely will. And um, I think you have to use a bricks and mortar even though like JK said that he wasn’t impressive last time, but two back doors was, was ridiculous. So, um, I’m probably gonna stick with synchrony, you know, maybe go. Uh, no, I got to definitely throw in raging bull somewhere.
You know what he’s, you know, he’s going to run well, it’s going to be a scare for JK Paul, where are you? Well, I, I definitely liked synchrony, but I also liked the other horse. That’s putting blinkers on. I’m a little worried about what JK was talking about earlier with post one. I think, I think she’ll, uh, he’ll really like the soft turf.
Uh Kurban but, uh, but I’m worried about being on the inside. Uh, but, uh, so, but I definitely like bulk tours that are putting blinkers on it’s curbing and synchrony. I’m not really saving bricks and mortar. I don’t, it probably will be over bet, but I think he’s clearly the worst to be. And the only other one I’ll mention is that nobody’s mentioned so far is that his prime attraction is a weird, weird horse.
And when he can get loose on the lead, I think this is an interesting spot for a. For Cassidy to run them into. And, uh, I’m definitely not going to get beat by him. I’m going to throw them in there somewhere. I believe he’s cross entered. I don’t know what their plan is. I think he’s running. I think he’s in the race with McKinsey.
If I’m not mistaken on Friday or the alley Sheba, he might been. Yeah. Maybe they want him to see if the, if the, you know, how the weather was and they would, you know, make a decision from there. But yeah, he drew the three. He can really handle the current. Okay. Interesting. Yeah. It’s not listed on the PP that I’m looking at, but it, maybe it slipped through the cracks.
Just something folks should pay attention to. All right. That’s it for the undercard steaks. We’re going to be back with a look at the Kentucky Derby right after this message from our partners. Did you ever wonder what it would be like to own your own professional sports franchise? Well, we can’t offer you that, but we can offer you the chance to compete in thoroughbred racing at its highest levels.
Black type thoroughbreds is a new public partnership that can put you in the winner circle for more information about thoroughbred ownership, contact Jake Ballis of black type thoroughbreds. Go to black type tb.com. For more information, that web address, once again is black type tb.com. All right now, it’s time gentlemen, to go over our thoughts for the Kentucky Derby and Paul Matisse.
We’re going to start with you and your view JK got so fired up the other day after his a 46 minute conversation with you about this race. I want to hear what got him so excited. Well, we were talking about passerby’s, you know, that’s the, and uh, we were talking about how people can get, uh, start looking at this as a different.
That’s something else other than a horse race, you know? And, um, JK was trying to get himself back to thinking that way, but he was listening to some of the other stuff that, that people start mentioned. So I was putting up the charts of all the, and figures of all pad’s derbies that was showing them, you know, how far and full the Derby is most of the time, you know?
And, uh, I think it’s going to be that way again. I mean, that sloppy tracks probably will. Well won’t hurt the, the two best sources. I think, I think the Arkansas Derby is the key. I think the door’s is that ran one, two, I think were most the most visually impressive. And they were the fastest, uh, not counting that, that weird race in Florida that, uh, maximum security one.
So, uh, I, uh, uh, definitely going through those two, um, watching that race, which JK and I did watch again the other day, you know, it’s hard, it’s hard to think that. That Omaha beach, isn’t going to beat him probable because I mean, he had them the whole way he had them on the Gallop out and it was Mike Smith seem to even have more.
So I think it’s, I think it might be as simple as something like, you know, when, uh, you know, w when another race that we looked at was the funny side, uh, empire maker race, where they came out of the fastest race and run and ran right back in the Derby and ran one, two, or even going further back, you know, Monarchos and.
Um, and Congress and they got split. So maybe a scenario, something like that, where they, they run first and third or something like that. But I think those are the two main sources, you know? And then, then I was thinking, just throwing, throwing in some of your own bombs there, there’s always something you can find, you know, to go along with those too.
You know, I originally liked by my standards and I still got to use them, but he’s no he’s going to be nowhere near the price that he. That he was going to be a couple of weeks ago, you know, he’s like, I think the, uh, the Kentucky clocker horse. So, um, I’m sure he’ll take money and I I’m still gonna use them.
I think the other horse out of the Louisiana Derby races, a horse, you should use that spin off and he’s not going to get bad. Um, the, the 19, um, so that’s, that’s my main focus I’ll probably use, uh, Code of honor, who I thought was false paced in the, uh, in the Florida Derby and then worked really, really fast.
And I liked, I liked when Shugg works. I’m really, really fast. I think that’s a good sign. I think he’ll, he’ll, he’ll run to, uh, to the best of his ability. I just thought, I don’t think he’s as good as you probable and then Omaha beach. I’ll piggyback my own thoughts, Paul, cause they’re fairly similar, at least in terms of the top horses, um, with Omaha beach, to me being the most likely winner by far and a horse that I’m really excited to hopefully key some things around for me.
I love that Tacitus race in the wood. And I have to make him my official top pick at likely odds. And then the third one, my third one I’d work in, as you mentioned, code of honor for all the reasons that you did. And I also, if you made me pick something that was going to be 25 to one or higher I’d, I’d mentioned spinoff.
So. Easy for me to just piggyback my thoughts on there for folks who are interested, I’ve got a full writeup over at, at the racist.com, but I’ll do a special blog post about it going horse by horse and in the money podcast.com. And with that, we will, I, I should, I should mention the San Anita Derby too. I just, I just want to say that that the same in there mean Derby was real slow.
I think you’ll have an idea of what, of how good it was with Instagram. If he, if he winds up the screen, that may change my opinion, but I. I definitely think it’s game winners. The one out of the scene needed. There’ll be, if you want to go that way. I think, I think Roadster got hit with the decks and it’s got a perfect trip.
And game game winner was, was extremely wide and bolt turns and he did all the work. So if I, if you’re going with anybody, if you’re gonna use anybody out of the ratios game winner, but, uh, I don’t like the fact that game winner, you know, I, I was under the assumption that Omaha beach was way better than game winner, uh, in, in that other race.
And. I thought that Omaha beach would go forward and game winter wouldn’t and they’ve already kind of done that. So I would never think that gamers would turn on Omaha beach, but, um, if they’re going to use one out of that race, that’s make sure you use game winner over Roadster while we got you going through the preps.
Paul, go ahead and go a little out of order. This was something I was going to ask you later about the relative merits of the preps. Do you you’re anti the horses coming out of the blue grass in the wood. I’m guessing just from the way you’ve broken it down so far. Yeah. And you know what, I, I do think that a Tacoma is a really good horse.
Um, I’m not really against that. Um, the blueprints as much as I am as the wood, I think the wood was not a very good race and, uh, I don’t expect some of the wood winters in the past, you know, that were pretty good horses, wicked, strong, and frost that had trouble in it and derbies. And I don’t, I don’t see this one as being anywhere near as good as the I, um, I agree with the sentiment that Tacitus is improving, but I don’t think he’s got to go way forward for what his odds are for me.
So that’s why it would be against him. I think the problem with Tacoma is that I just think Omaha beach is going to take it to them. So, and I think Omaha beach is better than the coal mines. Not that I’m against the Coleman. So I w if I would use one out of the bluegrass would be win-win, I have a son named wind, so I probably should throw him in.
Um, but it’s not, it’s not that I’m against the bluegrass in, in, in general. I just think all my beach is going to, it’s going to take both courses, have similar styles, and I think almost beach is going to. I’m just going to stick it to them around the turn. You know, Duke, I want to bring you in for your view on this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Well, I think Paul Paul Knight had taken a lot of my words, right?
Yeah. I do think all my beach is definitely the horse to beat that or that race was the fastest prep race. And visually he was very, very impressive visually in that race, he didn’t really get the best of trips and held off and probably pretty, pretty convincingly. So, I mean, he is definitely my top choice.
I’m not going to throw out and probably I’ll use them underneath. Um, because that race was the fastest, um, I don’t really have any good bombs originally. I was gonna, I was gonna go with win-win win, but I have this problem with that 14 posts be the end of the first game, right? Correct. Correct. Yeah.
Statistically for years, the last couple of years. Yeah. Course has gotten smashed coming out of the gate because, uh, the 15 comes across and that’s a Japanese or a stew that’s. Could be wild. Um, so originally I was going to use win-win when is my bomb, but I think I’m going to get off them, but just because of that post and my other bomb was country house and he drew post 20.
I’m not really thrilled with that. So that being said, I’m probably going to talk out in the Derby and go more like 12.5, which is not usually my style, but talking to us and Derby could pay about $75. So you never know. The other thing is I’m hoping there’s a prop game or versus Roadster. Cause I agree with Paul a hundred percent, I think game winner was about five lengths, better than a Roadster that day.
So I might have to get to my man. Marvin Davis and hope to just drop, uh, winter over Roadster. I was going to ask you about country house. I was thinking with this poor is he’s used to breaking and his running style that the 20 might not be that bad as he just break a little slow once again and go to the back and make his one run and have a chance to run third or fourth if the Pete pace heats up.
But you don’t see it that way at this point. Well, I think being in the 20 plus, he’s going to be last. So now he’s got a pass. You know, 17 of them to get third, you know, so, I mean, it’s going to be tough. It’s it’s just going to be a tough road. I was hoping he would draw something like, you know, six, seven, you know, where he could just maybe not lose any ground in the first turn and, and, you know, maybe be 15th early, but now that he’s going to be last, I think, uh, I think he’s in shot, so yeah.
Fair enough. Uh, it’s not going to be easy with any other, I just can’t come up with any logical bombs. I know people are on by my standards, but he got a really good trip in the Louisiana Derby. I know he’s slightly raised and improving, but I see that horse going backwards off that race. What about spinoff?
He’s one who does seem like he’s progressive. Paul mentioned, I worry a little bit about the trip from out there. It’s not like he’s shown all the closing kick in the world, but at the likely prices, is that a bomb you’d also consider throwing in Duke or are you taking a dimmer view? I just don’t think from a 19 posts he’s going to get, he’s probably going to be five, six wide in the first turn stocking.
And I just think he’s gonna, he’s gonna fade. No, he’s not. He’s not going to be on my tickets. JK. We’re going to have one more show before it’s all said and done. We’re going to be doing our final answers podcast under the Niara bets banner a little bit later in the week. So you don’t have to be fully definitive here.
If you want to save it for there. I already wrote my at the races piece, so there’s nothing for me to hold back. I got to lay them all on the table now, but for you JK, you can reserve that, right. So where are you right now with the Kentucky Derby. And is that your final answer? Yeah. I mean, I, gosh, I feel bad.
Like, uh, obviously I respect the, the, the brothers so much and, and their opinions and so many things I’ve learned about Haiti. Kevin would come from them. So it doesn’t surprise me that I’ve landed on the same horses that they have. But I like Omaha beach a lot. One of the horses that I think maybe if I’m trying to be cute, when people are asking me, I might give like, improbable as like my pick, although I think, uh, there’s not going to be any scenario where I’m not alive to both of them.
Um, You know, and I, I won’t be betting either of them to win. I’m going to try to be alive to both of them. So I don’t necessarily have to pick one, but here’s the thing about improbable is when, when Paul and I were watching that race the other day, he was watching it on his and I was watching it on mine.
So we were probably at different parts of the race. One thing I noticed about improbable that kind of gets me excited about him here is he, he was a real jerk in the, in the, in the gate before the race. I mean, he was jumping all over the place. He broke a step slow from there. And then he sat in behind a wall of four horses eating slop for, I don’t know, it felt like half a mile.
And then he, then he pops out and he produces it. He runs that the best horse in the race, and he never really got extended on. Now. I agree with Paul that Omaha beach was, was never going to let him buy. But it probably was. I couldn’t think of another word, another phrase that he was trying his ass off and I respect the heck out of that.
And he’s a horse that I think will, regardless of the, of the situation down there from the five he’ll sit in behind horses, he’ll save Brown, he’ll eat dirt. Um, he’s he’s battle tested. He, he had to be ran as a two year old. Um, he’s you know, I just think, I think he’s sitting on a huge race with a great opportunity.
If Omaha beach ends up four wide or, or something like that. Crazy. Um, I could see a situation where it probably can turn the tables in a fair match race. I don’t think that could be, uh, I don’t think it probably could beat him, but you know, things go wrong in the Derby. We’ve all seen that. I do worry with improbable and the reason I left him out of my mix, even though obviously I respect them and would certainly use them defensively and exotic.
So I’m not like all about fading him or anything. But the thing that did give me pause was he just gave me the impression both. In the races and possibly on pedigree on the sire side of one, who might not improve for going from nine furlongs to 10 furlongs Paul, you’ve got an extensive knowledge of breeding and have watched more races, I think, than anyone.
I know. What are your thoughts specifically about improbable and the mile and a quarter? You know, I, I guess it’s a fair argument, but, uh, I’m with JK. I think I’m probably going to show up. I think he’s definitely my brother, my other brother, Greg likes to talk about horses. You know, when he, when he handicaps a race like this horses that could proven that they could scramble.
And what he means is that they can run with a lot of chaos going around round him. And I think, and probably more than prove that near consent, there will be. I think that’s what JK was getting at. He, everything was going wrong and it didn’t matter. He was still gonna run and he still tried as hard as he can.
So. It would be shocking for me that it probably doesn’t show up. So I liked the idea of what JK says to where, um, he’s the most reliable key. I think, I think he’ll be, I think he’ll be on the board. I think it’ll be one, two, three, the problem with going with them, you know, like full tilt on them is that when you watch that race, if the real Omaha beach shows up, you know, I don’t think you can beat them.
You know, there’s nothing in that. There’s nothing in that replay. There’s nothing in that race that you can watch and say, Oh yeah, I’m probably going to turn on, on Omaha beach, you know, but you know, if Omaha beach gets into like a, a wild duel and Tacoma, like I think is a pretty good horse and it’s going to stay with them for awhile and, uh, you know, and who knows maximum security, which I don’t have a lot of, uh, I’m definitely, you know, against him, but, you know, if he sticks him for a good three eights, half a mile, You know, I’m probably going to sit, he’ll be coming at it, you know?
So if he, if he does get, uh, softened up. Yeah, maybe that’s the way he does turn on him. There’s been a lot of shatter about this pace situation in the Derby and Duke. I want to get your opinion as a, somebody who I’ve seen just design races in a way that made it seem like you had a crystal ball. When we did the Derby monster pot, it was person after person talked about how there wasn’t that much pace time form U S has it projected as fast?
Sean Borman has it projected as slow. When I look at it, I certainly see scenarios where it’s going to, because of the way that the speeds drew heat up more than the paper might suggest that it does. Where are you with this Derby pace? How do you see it playing out? Their big case? Almost always develops at some point.
I mean, with 20 horses, somebody’s there, you know, there’s more, always more than one. That’s got to go with it. It’s a tough race to design, but you know, you got horses like gray magician. Is, you know, short, um, running shorter distances and you got fuck home when you got maximum security and, you know, Omaha beach is not going to be very far behind.
So I think we’ll be fine. I don’t think it’ll be blazing, but I think it’ll be plenty for a mile and a quarter. I think you’re looking at probably like a, you know, a 47 half, maybe 46 and change half something in that range. So I think it’ll be plenty fast that being said, I don’t think the closers are the horses that, um, Are going to make this right.
I think like Omaha beach is going to stock those speeds and it’s just going to be, you know, open up and I try to hold on. I think that’s just, I just see the race going that way. It’s got perfect position. 12 posts. I mean, unless he breaks bad or something goes wrong, he just looks like he’s just in the past spot.
Um, going back, uh, to, I wanted to come up with a long shot, I guess if the track is dry. The track was dry. It might throw in long range tidy. He did run good to back and maybe he didn’t like it wet last time, but I think he’s up against it if, um, if the track comes up sloppy, which it’s supposed to a little bit, because when it comes to the pace, you know, I wonder about more of will.
I feel like he’s an, it kind of get sent on one of those, you know, Palms up. What else were you going to do? Let’s just send them kind of trips. And I don’t know if he’s fast enough to really cook it up, but just from a, from a tactical standpoint, I think he could impact how wide some of the other horses are.
Right. Cause if he goes, but coma goes maximum, security goes now Omaha beach either has to be forced or take four wide or take back, you know? And so I think that war of will, what he decides to do on the inside should make a big difference in what happens with the pace. That’s logical. I mean, you’ve also got, uh, you’ve got some speed on the outside there too.
I think I like the way Duke described it. And I think that’s a key point about it’s Omaha beach it’s it’s also not like he is in absolute need the lead type. He’s a horse who should be in position and should have that finish. I’m definitely feeling more confident. In him from having talked this over with you three than I was before.
Let’s get a thought from each of you about wagering on Kentucky Derby day. I’ll leave it up to you that you could either pick a specific wagering strategy for a race like the Derby itself, or perhaps a pick sequence or a spot where you’re excited to attack the verticals. JK. We’re going to start with you on this one.
Where do you see most of your money going? I mean, I love these pick sixes I’m on these big days. I am a little bit annoyed that Friday and Saturday, it’s the 20 cent variety. Um, so with that said, I’ve talked about it on the show and I’m looking forward to the two day pick sec, the $2, two day pick six with all the grade ones.
When I look back at my handicapping and my horseplay, I, I do better. In bigger races, because I feel like I know all the information. I can have a little bit more confidence. I’m not worried about a horse that’s made in special way dropping for 50. And is he good? Is he not, are they trying to get rid of them?
Do they need them? These are races where, you know, you still got kind of a need, you still got to Zig and zag through some owner, pick the spot type of stuff when it being on these big days, but that I can handle that. Um, and so that’s the, that’s the bet. The bet I’m going to be. Trying to get involved when with an and depending on when I started constructing the ticket, how much I have to spread in the earlier legs, I’d like to be alive.
Too improbable. I need to be alive to Omaha beach and improbable. I’d like to be alive to Omaha beach and probable game winner and the two horses out of the Louisiana Derby. But that’s always going to have to depend on how much I spend in the other parts of the, uh, of the city you were talking the other day, like Tacitus was going to be your pick potentially in the race or you off him completely.
Yeah. I’m just starting to get a little bit, I’ve gotten sometimes what happens is. Well, you don’t have a strong opinion and horses can sneak into your radar. And then the deeper you dive when you get a strong opinion, those horses that you let in suddenly get pushed out. I don’t see him beating both of those horses.
So as long as I have both of them, I feel like I have the coverage I need. He’s definitely a horse I’d use underneath and tries and supers. Um, you know, I, we, we talk about, uh, one of the best things to do with like a family or a group of friends. Bet is a. Eight horse superfecta box. You get everybody to pull their money together and you hope for a big score.
I think it’s like 1600 bucks or whatever. So, you know, get 200 bucks here, there, there, there, boom. And he’s a horse I’d use in that, but not a horse that I need on top. All right, Duke, when you hear about eight Horsebox superfecta is in a race like the Derby, does that make your teeth itch or do you see JKS point in a race like the Derby.
I’m not into eight or superfecta boxes, but, um, but I key one with it with eight underneath, you know, I mean our team first, second, and third, you know, with eight underneath, but I’m not, I don’t like boxing super effective only because. You know, you gotta be, you gotta be right in all the positions when you only gotta be pick one horse as a key, didn’t he, then you can, uh, like can key.
They were talking about in keying in problem. Like, I think he’s a great key in a super effective. And then, you know, with a bunch of users with seven or eight underneath, that would be a good bet. I think if I was going to play a super fast on the Derby, which always pays, which always is an overlay, by the way, super back then Derby always played well.
Um, do they have a. 10. Perfect. Then I’m pretty sure. I think they do have a super high five. Yeah. They have one. I didn’t even realize, I thought there was so much attention on the, on the super that they left it there. Interesting. Interesting. Yeah. It, so that, that would be an interesting play that I’m sure my wife will have a few, a dollar tickets on that, or I don’t know if it’s 50 cents or a dollar, but she always loves playing those, um, I’ll probably stick with, since they ruined the pick six with the jackpot wager out, I’ll probably put most of my money in the pick five, um, you know, ending with obviously Omaha beach and a little improbable.
So, I mean the pick five is always great value on, uh, Derby day. So, so tough to hit. I’ve had a lot of bad beats in it over the years, but, um, hopefully this year things change and I, and I catch a score on this like five this year. I wasn’t going to mention thunder snow, but since you brought it up too, how have you ate them?
It’s too late. I do wear my two words. Derby day. Things are thunder, snow, and the year that orb one. Um, I met, uh, my wife’s grandmother’s hundredth birthday party watching this race in the, in her living room. And I’m sitting next to a woman who bet $2 wind place show. Um, golden soul, I believe was his name.
And as they’re coming down the stretch, I got the exact, the here comes golden soul and all I can hear is this lady screaming. Hello?
Oh, I’m sure at the top of my lungs and she hits her $2 plate and I lose about a half a million dollars. You were a big hit at the hundredth birthday party though. They, they, they I’m sure they loved you. I really livened up that far.
Paul, we drink strategy-wise and I’m going to add a question about Derby memories and, or Derby tough beats, but we drink strategy-wise. Where are you most excited to get involved on Saturday? The one that was in I’ll go to the beach first. The one that, that I always think of that, of the near misses, uh, you know, I love charismatic.
And I think I use Duke was talking about an eight horse. Super. I use eight horses, I think underneath them and everything. And I didn’t use the horse that stands in Korea. Now that, that beat me rent, no matter fee Kentucky horse. Yeah. Well, I didn’t use McAfee and, uh, Aye. Aye. And I had, I believe I had the horses who ran third through ninth, I think, or something how bad it was.
And yeah, it w it was for lots of money. I mean, I didn’t, I can’t follow a story where I got into a fight with a hundred you’re a woman, but I re I re I remember that one is being just, were just thinking after how much money you can make. And also the, uh, I had a humongous exact with Mark Monarchos in, uh , which I still can’t believe he lost that photo, that horse that never ran ever good again, invisible ink.
Oh, those were too bad. I think they were like back to back too. They were two bad feet. That was a visible link. Yeah. Oh yeah. That, one’s a, that’s the crazy ones, but, uh, as vetting strategies, uh, I think that the main thing to take from this Derby and, you know, Is that Duke and I, when we do these pics, when we used to do the pick six is I agree with him, it’s ruined with the jackpot, but, uh, it was always hard to come up with a strategy and the Derby because you couldn’t cover it.
And you really always had to, uh, you know, especially when somebody spread their BS, it made these tickets so much, so much and what you needed to have so many horses. And, uh, even in past years, I think even if you were putting them on, on some kind of a backup or an ABC type of tickets, They just got out of control because you were using seven behind or 12 behind, and you wanted to have everything covered if you were right before and it made and made all these that’s really difficult.
But, uh, I know, uh, you know, the years where you could just take, you know, like peace rules, empire maker and, and funny side, and just take the three and don’t use any other ones. It just makes these bets so much easier. And I think we might have one of those types of years where you could. You know, you’d take him probable in Omaha beach, or if you take Omaha beach and somebody else that you like, and, and don’t spread so much in the Derby, you can now cover some of these other races that are tough, but you don’t have to speculate in the, these races.
Cause I don’t, even though they’re tough races, even that sprint race, I think you could probably cover it, you know? And, and in the past you couldn’t do that. You, you get, you get stuck in these races where. You’re uh, you’re having to speculate in both of them and, and I, and I hate playing picks, pick fours and fives where you’re speculated every leg.
That’s, that’s a bad strategy. That’s a losing strategy. So I, I think this may be a good year to, you know, and, and when I say speculate, even if you’re right, you know, you know, you’re like, we like charismatic. It’s hard to single a, you might as well just let the horse to win. If you’re going to, if you’re going to single a 24 to one shot and pick five, why bother, you know, But all your money to win, but is the wind on the horse?
It’s not gonna affect the ads, you know, and that there would be, and this is a different type of year where, where I think the, uh, the, the horizontals come into play, where you can manage the Derby. And once you can manage the Derby, even like the late pick four that starts with the Derby, it’s something that everybody forgets.
I’m not going to forget it today. This, this year I’m going to be involved because those races that are really good, those. Those two races that everybody forgets about are usually good races and, and, uh, have good value in them. And, uh, you know, uh, you can tie them up. So, you know, it’s a different focus. I think this year, when you, when you have, uh, a scenario like we have this year, you know, I think that the, the horizontals are, are much more of a factor.
Where in other years, and you know, if I don’t do the podcast next year, if anybody’s listening, you know, if you get a spread Derby, you know, don’t be forced into it. You have to play the pick five or the pick four, play them all, you know, because you can duck the win. You know, that’s when the Menifee won the title together when Menifee wast.
And second, I said to myself, why didn’t I just get 20 charismatic? Why am I chasing, you know, the superfecta and all these other things, it wouldn’t have, you know, it wouldn’t, it wouldn’t have a. I would add a life change in score just by bet to win, you know? So the, let the race dictate, you know, how you bet you know, and how you, I think our, our, this phone call between the three, if you don’t have to speculate as much, a few things to Paul’s points.
I love the idea about making sure you play the late pick four. It’s going to start. On Saturday in race 11, which was the turf classic, which, you know, if you play the pick six and you’re, you’re, you’re still alive, you could still do what Paul mentioned. You can add those extra horses in the second leg of the Derby.
Um, so that race, that, that pig four starts and race 11. The other thing that, that I’ve kind of realized is you’ve got an hour and a half in between the, the turf classic and the, and the Derby. So if you’re playing the pick six or the pick five or whatever, you know, and there’s some horses that make you nervous.
If you’re alive and you have a, will pay of $150,000, then you can come back in and vet those horses that you were scared of to win. But if you try to cover everything that you think can win the Derby, it almost becomes unplayable. And then you end up leaving horses, like article off, like we did a couple of years ago.
It’s exactly why we did that as we spread. Pretty heavily in the Derby and didn’t have enough money to throw Arklow in as well. I mean, I guess we did in hindsight, but, uh, when you’re trying to construct a ticket, that can be a problem. That’s a really good observation. Lots of really good observations from the team on that one.
I’ve kept you over time. I’ve got one more for you though. We’ve seen some really weird bedding in Kentucky Derby’s in the last half, dozen years or so really last decade with certain horses patch comes to mind. My boy Jack last year comes to mind horses that just like, if you’d been told two days before the race, we’re going to be bet the way they did, you would like stare in disbelief.
Who is going to be this years, if any, my boy Jack or patch in the Derby, Jake, Hey, I’m going to start with you and don’t pee on our parade and say code of honor. No, I think that the, probably the most Overbeck horse, uh, well, at least for us on this phone call is going to be Roadster. I mean, he, I don’t like Roadster.
Um, I know Paul doesn’t, I’m not sure if Duke does. I think he’s going to be over bet. I think there’s a small chance, small chance that he’s the favorite of all the three bachelors. That’s that’s a bold statement. It does. We’ll have to see what happens. Paul, how about you in terms of who might be the most over bad or unexpectedly bad horse in the race?
You know, I, I’m not good at this. No, I’m not, I can see sometimes, you know, who, who who’s going to be. I never against those other two, you know, but you know, I get the feeling that win-win win is going to be over bet. You know, he had that crazy workout that everybody likes to talk about. It’s an, like I said, it’s an easy name to like, you know, and, uh, he ran, he ran and one, no, I guess if I had to guess the one that would be.
Oddly ordinary be less than, I mean, even as morning light to me is short. You know, I wouldn’t throw him in if he was 50 to one. I mean, I think he’s got, you know, a launch that chance, but to be, to talk to him in the same vein as these other horses is just weird to me. Duke, do you have one who you could see capturing the public’s imagination and just getting bet, uh, down below where it makes any logical sense?
It was, you know, there’s no names in the Sheriff’s Derby. I think the only name is what will, I think it’s a war world will warrant. And so I don’t think that have been over bet. I would say win-win win is Paul’s got it right. I say, he’ll be the most over bet. I think he’ll be. He’s already low to begin with.
So I think he’ll be less than 15 to one, which is crazy. I think he should be more like 30 to one. So I’m going to stick with that one. Numbing. I wonder why nobody named any horses after people this year? You think that’s what it was with my boy, Jack. Everybody knows somebody named Jack. So the horse, the horse ends up a fraction of cancer.
Yeah, haven’t had to be good, Jack. I would think the best, the best news about my boy, Jack, if I’m not mistaken and I’m trying to pull it up here, so I don’t lie to you. I believe my boy Jack is running at Churchill on Saturday. I think he’s on the first or second man. Secondary, secondary, clearly.
Absolutely. You make them the Derby. You’re going to try to get their money back. This there’s no worse. You mentioned running a Friday, but I actually have on a bet back list. Isn’t that horse running? There’s an AUSTRAC. Is that the word? She said Arklow was the horse from the American turf. Lost yours article.
Yeah. Yeah, I will, since I’m going to, I could have cut that whole part out, but I’m going to leave it in. Cause now we have, uh, a Duke Mattise horse to watch to also follow and bet on the card on Saturday guys, this was so much fun. Thank you for bearing with us, keeping you longer than we said. Really, uh, enjoy talking to you any chance we get on the podcast or off the podcast.
Airwaves. I want to thank you, Duke and Paul Mati so much for your time today. You’re welcome. Thank you. And good luck to everybody. Cheers gentlemen. And with that, we’re going to wrap this edition of the, in the money players podcast. Thanks again to Duke and Paul. Thanks also to JK. Big shout out to our sponsors, black type thoroughbreds, the main sponsor of this show and our proud partner.
Also, of course, thoroughbred retirement foundation and 10 strike racing. We appreciate all of their efforts. We also appreciate all of your efforts and that’s why we end each show by thanking the listeners, what a Derby week we’ve had on the blog and on the shows, we appreciate the support, keep it coming.
We’ll keep providing the content that you seem to really appreciate. This show has been a production of in the money media in the money media’s business manager is drew Courtney I’m Peter Thomas foreign, a towel. May you win all your Kentucky Derby photos?
At the top of the show, I mentioned the special Kentucky Derby party I’ll be doing with my friends at Treadwell park West. And I mentioned, there’s going to be a gambling element. Yes, there will be some charity raffles benefiting the sponsor of this show, the thoroughbred retirement foundation. But you’re also going to be able to wager via the Niara bets.
App. And I wanted to tell everybody about a couple of Derby specials. Niara bets are running. You can access these using the promo code money to five. The first one, you bet, $25 on your Derby horse to win. And if that horse finishes second or third, you get your $25 back. And we also have the $200 new member bonus.
About 200 within 14 days and get a $200 bonus. You can do one. You can do both. The choice is yours. We’re going to be sending out via Twitter, a special landing page to join Niara bets. If you haven’t already for more information about these and other promotions, check out Niara bets.com. Wait a second. I think I forgot to thank Jonathan.
Sorry about that JK. And of course you did. I’m like Rodney Dangerfield around here. I can’t, uh, can’t get no respect.