It’s Preakness time, folks! And we’ve got our old friend Marshall Gramm (9:45) here to talk about the graded stakes on the undercard (17:40) and go through every runner in the Preakness field (29:00), with a special emphasis on his own entrant, Warrior’s Charge. Also, Nate Newby stops by to talk a little Preakness and tell us about the contest out at Santa Anita this weekend (1:30).
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Hello, and welcome to the, in the money players podcast. This is our show for Preakness day 2019. I’m your host, Peter Thomas for Nitel back with you, not in the bunker today, but in the Brooklyn podcasting studio, we’ve hit the big time folks and this being the big time before we get to the main body of our show, we’re bringing in a big time guest.
He is our friend from Santa Anita, VP of marketing out there. I’m talking about horseplayer track. Exac Nate newbie. Nate, how are you today? Hey, good morning, Pete. I’m doing well. We always love to have you on the show to talk about what’s going on, especially in the contest world, out at Santa Anita. And you have, I think, is this now the fifth annual Preakness contest at Santa Anita?
If you can’t make it to Baltimore and this year I am making it to Baltimore, but. My other favorite place, my co favorite place really to watch the Preakness is right there from Santa Anita. Tell us about what you have planned for this weekend, Nate. Yeah, it should be a good event. It’s usually the fifth or sixth.
I’d have to look back, but the, uh, the Preakness batting challenge, of course you can participate at Santa Anita. I think we’ll have most of the players there or at Goldstream or via express bet, but, uh, it’s a big contest. It’s a $3,000 buy-in 2000 of that is your live bank roll. And a thousand goes towards prizes.
And of course we put a hundred percent of that money to prizes, and then we add to it as well. So, uh, it should be a fun event, a good cards at Santa Anita Goldstream races are included. We’re including three through races, three through 12 from gold stream, and then race this fourth or six through 14 at Pimlico.
So a lot of good action to bet on. And, uh, you know, guys we’ll be firing away. I’m sure. This is a little bit in the weeds, but I’m curious the decision to include so many more simulcast races, uh, just a way to give betters more opportunities and you figure it’s all the home team. It’s all the, the, the same group Stronach group.
So that’s, what’s going on there a little bit, but we also had the, a contest in March canceled because of the situation at Santa Anita, which usually is Santa Nita and Gulf stream. So they wanted to jump in on another contest with combined though, this was kind of, uh, we ended up, uh, making a hybrid of two events into this one.
Then so far, the feedback’s been very strong, you know, three good cards. And, uh, I think, uh, you know, we always have kind of an open format, so you have to play five races at minimum 200, and then you just have to make sure that at least bet your $2,000 bankroll minimum over, uh, all three of those, uh, tracks.
So, um, you know, they’re getting good feedback and I think we’ll have a strong field. You have had some really impressive winners. I mean the last few contests you’ve run, we’ve seen names like James Henry names, like Ryan Flanders out there. Once again, the sort of cream of the crop rising in the contest world.
One name we haven’t seen lately on your leaderboard, even though we won one last year is Jonathan kitchen. What’s going on to how, how do you handicap JKS recent performances in the Santa Anita events. And do you expect him to be playing somehow, uh, this weekend? Well, he’s been in a little slump. I have to say.
I don’t know. We’ll see if, uh, I, I was so excited to follow the, uh, the Kentucky Derby, uh, batting contest to check the results there and a bid card. I saw that it wasn’t good for JK, so we’ll see if he can rebound. It broke slowly that day. That’s that much is for sure. You mentioned about the, the time off at Santa Anita, I’m getting the impression that the vibes have been a lot better in recent weeks out there.
Give me a little bit of insight into, into what the mood’s been at Santa Anita over the last couple of weekends. Yeah, definitely getting better. I mean, the, the best thing for everybody is just the racing and the training’s been safe. So, um, we put the new safety protocols in on March 15th and we just put out some numbers the other day.
I think it’s over 7,000 now or right around 7,000 time workouts and workouts since the new protocols with no injuries or no catastrophic. So, um, and the racing has been good, good cards this weekend, starting to pick up and field size. Uh, there’s definitely an adjustment period with the horsemen, but, um, if, uh, this weekend’s cards are in the indication, we should be back on track.
That’s great to hear. I really am sad about the fact that I did not make it to California for the first year in memory, and it didn’t have anything to do with everything going on. It was really just. A function of life and with starting these new shows and having these obligations, fun obligations, but other places to travel.
But I really do feel remiss and I still hope to be able to get out to Santa Anita before your guys’ meat closes. I want to ask one more about Santa Anita, and then I want to ask one about you that Santa Anita wise, in terms of your upcoming contest schedule, what else can players look forward to? Is there a week?
And I should maybe think about circling on the calendar is one to try to get out there before it’s all said and done for this meet. Yeah, absolutely. And we’re just announcing a, uh, Memorial day $500 contest on track only express bet couldn’t make that work with their schedule, but we have three grade ones on Memorial day on May 27th, including the gold cups.
So, um, should be a great day of racing. We’re going to do our, one of our kind of standard $500 contests, uh, which have been very popular. It’s probably our most popular level of buy-in. Um, just because some of the smaller players who jump in and the bigger players still play in it. So it’s always fun. And then we’re going to do two days of contest for closing weekend, which is June 22nd and 23rd.
So either of those would be good options and, uh, hope to see out here before, uh, before we close, I’m going to try to make it happen. And if not, I’ll, I’ll make sure to come twice next year or something. But wanted to ask you about your own horse playing because as we’ve discussed many times on the show, I think one of the reasons why you do such a good job running these contests is because you play in contest yourself.
Have you been active lately as a player? And, uh, what’s been happening as far as that goes. Well, uh, absolutely. I always try and stay active. It depends on how busy I am at Santa Anita. Um, so sometimes I’ll end up playing more like during our off season when I can concentrate it on a little more, especially obviously in the contest as well.
Cause it’s really tough to get away from Santa Anita almost any day of the week. Um, but certainly on weekends when, uh, when other contests are being held during our season, but, uh, you know, Kentucky Derby, I was pretty much dead wrong on that. I’ll be honest. Uh, I was liked all the California horses. I like the three Baffert that one of them, you know, watched him train all spring at Santa Anita.
They all trained. Well, I know Bob was high on all of them and. You know, who knows if it was the rain or whatever. Uh, but none of them seem to fire. So, um, you know, we’ll see if we can get it back. I’m very happy to see a dry track in the forecast for Preakness day. So we’ll see if we can rally on the Preakness and get back our Derby losses.
Hopefully we can keep that fog away this year. I think we will. Um, would that be your prediction? We’re going to do an in-depth dive into the Preakness later in the show, but a quick thought. I mean, if you had to, uh, if you had to make a pick from here, would you be sticking with team improbable? Is that what I’m hearing?
Well, maybe, but you know, he, he did wash out in the Kentucky Derby. If you watched the broadcast, him walking over, he gets a little funny. You saw he was very hot. Uh, about 30 minutes before the Derby, the crowd maybe got to him a little bit, he did calm down a little bit in the post parade. Um, but I think that definitely hurt his chances.
And, and, uh, I think, you know, anybody who, who likes him probably needs to keep an eye on him, uh, you know, on the walk over and in the paddock and just make sure he stays cool. I mean, it’d be over a hundred thousand people there again, so it’s a lot to deal with. And, uh, you know, he may not just, he may just not have the temperament for, uh, for that type of crowd, but, um, if he holds it together, I think he’ll be tough to beat.
And then like, I like a couple long shots that have some good tactical speed that I think will fit Pimlico well, um, I think, uh, another twist of fate has a shot to be in there for sure. He’s only six to one, but he may drift up. And I think Bodhi express, uh, the maiden, you know, will be a big price. And I like his running style.
I think in, you know, in the Florida Derby, he chased maximum security and, and stayed close to him and never totally gave it up. He held second and, and even if you’ll watch the Gallop out, he was the first one, you know, around the turn to congratulate him. So he dug in and kept running. And I like that kind of grit.
I think that style fits well for Pimlico observations. Nate, not surprising with your background as both a horseman horseplayer and track. Exac not nice little resume. You got there, Nate. Thank you so much for your time today. We really appreciate you coming on. All right. Thanks, Pete. And good luck. And we’ll see you guys soon.
Cheers. My friend. All right. And now we’ll move on to the body of this. Week’s in the money players podcast, and we’re going to do that. First of all, by bringing in my cohost, he has been asked approximately 972 times. If he’s going to be at old Hilltop on Saturday, he’s been offered starring roles in television.
He’s been offered the fanciest seats in the house, but no, none of that’s happening. He’s going to be at a youth soccer game on the planet, Texas. I’m talking about the people’s champion, Jonathan kitchen. J K. How are you? Yeah, it’s a tough life. Look, I, Saturdays are tough. I’m sure all horse players know that.
And I’ve been fortunate enough that I have not missed a soccer game all year. We got rained out when I was gone for Derby. Boom. Thank you, weather gods. Um, I just, I’ve been lucky, so I’m trying to hit as many as I can. I’m going to miss Belmont. So when I go to Belmont, I’ll miss Mrs. Game there. So I wanted to catch as many as I could.
And. Uh, luckily, uh, I asked some friends that will be at the Preakness. They can send me pictures and, and place wagers for me. Yeah. Well, that’s a great attitude and I think that’s absolutely right to keep your life priorities in order there, but you know, it is also just one more thing I can make fun of you about.
So that’s good too. You do enjoy, uh, making fun of me now. You’ve been on feed, been on fire there’s the last two days. All right. Let’s bring in our other guests now. Normally, normally we, we, you know, we’re basically bothering people to come on the show. They’re taking time out of their busy day and what they’re doing to come talk to us here.
This is a little bit of a reversal. This is the first time we’ve ever had a guest book himself. And that is because after, or right before. Warriors charges. Last two races. This guest has been on here and things have gone very well for warriors charged. So with Warrior’s charge running in the Preakness, it’s only appropriate that we bring back to this show.
Professor Marshall Graham Marshall, how are you today? Doing well, I have all these years of education, nine years, five, four years in college, five years in graduate school, been teaching for 20 years and I am still very, very superstitious. So maybe our sponsorship money or whatever it was that took me to get back on the show.
And we want our last two back combined 12 and a half lengths. And, uh, I knew wherever we made our next dart little bit, I think it would be in the Preakness. Uh, but, uh, you know, I had this sort of, uh, uh, twist your arms to have me back aboard and, uh, hopefully we can keep this, uh, podcast karma, uh, goat. I love it.
Of course I’m teasing were always incredibly thrilled. Open invitation marshal for you with what you bring to the table in terms of the economic work you’ve done. In this game, your accomplishments as a horseplayer and as one of the co-founders along with clay Sanders of 10 strike racing. So don’t, you know, I don’t like to tease the guests.
Usually I save that treatment for JK, but I, it just seemed worth doing, but anyway, let’s, let’s talk about what’s going on in Baltimore. Marshall. You’re the only one of us who’s there. I did my completely insane up and back yesterday, we did this pre Preakness party for our friends at America’s best racing and it went great really, really good time.
Got to see you briefly. But if I’m not mistaken, today is the sort of world famous alibi breakfast for a horseplayer who grew up partially in the area that must’ve been something for you to attend that. What was it like and explain to folks what it is or those who don’t know. So it was, uh, it was a thrill.
They give out a handful of awards, I guess it’s been a. Tradition or a Pimlico tradition that dates back over a hundred years, I guess, horsemen, they talk about that horseman would gather to have breakfast and always make up excuses, I guess, in this case, it’s, uh, making excuses for their, their, uh, uh, poor Kentucky Derby finishes are not winning the Kentucky Derby with, uh, as a result of having this.
We don’t have the top four coming across the line this year. So, uh, so it’s, uh, it’s got a lot of history with a big crowd. Um, I gave out a handful of wards, ski big one, uh, I guess it’s the old Hilltop award for his, uh, great work, um, and, uh, um, a real privilege to see him win that award. And, um, again, all the, uh, participants in the race, the trainers got to give up and give a little spiel where interviewed about their horse.
That was the only representative for Warrior’s charge. And so, uh, I got up and, uh, To justify the big gamble that we were taking. Uh, but, uh, got, uh, got a little cheer from everyone because we help use the purse 1.6, 5 million, and that’s $150,000 higher because of the supplement we’re paying amazing. Well, it’s such a sporting move and we’re so glad to see it.
We’re going to get to the Preakness in great detail in a minute, Jay, you got something for Marshall. I do. I do. I do. Yeah. Marshall, I don’t want to put you on the spot, but everyone loves your, your, uh, your, your Twitter. Um, and you, you know, you let us know about the positive expectation that a lot of these carry over bets turn out to.
Did you, did you have to get out the calculator and math to find out if the one 50 was worth it and what it really meant to in terms of, if you guys were to pull it off the purse money, the value, I think that, uh, the winner of this race is probably guaranteed to be a, a stallion somewhere in the world.
Did you have to pull out the calculator or was it more of a feel thing for you. Well, we absolutely made the calculation. So I had dinner with that guest Jonathan best-friend crew before on Monday night after the Derby leaves. And I had, uh, Liz and I had dinner with Jake and Sean and Jonathan with the path.
And then, uh, next morning we heard the announcement. The country house is out and at that point were like, you know, we need to think about the Preakness we might fit. Let’s ignore the fact that we, uh, we missed our, uh, the handful of deadlines that would have made this cheaper. Let’s think about, you know, $150,000.
What is our risk? What is our reward? And, uh, you know, in the calculation, you know, we think the horse is worth about 600,000. Now we think if we won the Preakness, the horse would be worth 4 million, $900,000 winner share. And we just thought the math on it was, uh, you know, made it worth taking a shot. If we finished third we’ll break, even on the whole transaction.
Um, obviously we don’t take this lightly because we’re, we’re ultimately spending our partners money. We have a lot of partners involved, no one owns more than 10% of warriors charge. And so we’re making a big gamble and, uh, we called our partners and they were unanimous, unanimous in their decision to want to take our chance.
And, uh, they’re enthusiastic and showing up in droves, we have about 65 partners that are making the Trek up from, uh, you know, mostly from Arkansas and Memphis, but really from all over. Cool and great question. JK. You’re showing me up, uh, you’re showing me up with your excellent incisive, uh, host questions, but, uh, we appreciate it because it’s so valuable for the listeners who come I’m coming for your job.
I like it. You, you be careful what you say because the next time I go on vacation, it may be a, you may be here by yourself with the guests. Not so fast, my friend. All right. Let’s dive into some races and we’re going to start off with the sixth race on Saturday. It is the Maryland sprint Marshall as our guest.
I’m going to let you go first on this one. So I’m going to go with a winner. So it’s key to point out here. This is not John service. This is Tyler service, uh, Tyler services, John son, and Jason’s nephew. And he’s just, uh, he’s just taken out his trainer’s license and his two for two. So he’s following, uh, this service footsteps.
Uh, he won with this horse. This horse was his first winner. And while he ran a big number, I am always dubious of a horse that has a big effort like that in the mud. But I really go back to a start before, uh, he ran, uh, you know, once they decided that that, uh, sort of cutting back into sprint him, he was in these nicer races, his early three-year-old, but this winter, he ran it.
Parking parking is really heavy. This winter, the track was really hard on speed. Uh, in very heavy you’d routinely see a six for a long races that ran in one 18 on the day that, uh, that he won on February 9th. Uh, there was a, you know, six and a half for a long race to win one 22 and a seven for a long race to win one 28.
And he ran and ran a big number and reign on to lead. Um, and again, this winter that was very hard to do, and I think he’ll take it right to Lewis field. Um, Lewis field ran, you know, basically chased the 99 to one shot last time. Uh, and, uh, and probably said way too fast paced and, and ended up getting caught in the end.
And so, you know, should control the pace, but I I’m gonna go with Wentz to be right, right on him. And, uh, when they turn the home, I see when’s pulling away. You worried about any sort of underlay with all those Eagles fans around? Well, yeah. I mean, you know, they’re, they, as they, uh, Um, is, uh, uh, the Eagles fans make it down the Baltimore.
Uh, you know, what’s interesting about Baltimore, right? Is that, uh, it’s not going off this random tangent. You can cut if you want. I was able to get it. I was able to get a hotel room last week. We made our Preakness decision on Monday and here I’m looking at for hotel rooms at the end of the week. A lot of people drive in for the Preakness.
So we know that the go to the Derby, it’s a four D or deal. If you want to hotel room, you’ve got to reserve it for four days here. I was able to get a very nice room in the inner Harbor, less than $200 a night. And, uh, the Preakness is a driving crap. People from Philadelphia come down, uh, Baltimore DC, a lot of people in the Mid-Atlantic area embraced this race.
And, uh, they drive in for it. I hear one knucklehead is going to be doing his second day trip to Baltimore in a week, just to, uh, just to hang out with the 10th strike crew. But it does. It’s a race that does strange things to people. Clearly. J K what’s your thought in the Maryland sprint? This is actually a really tough race and it’s a race that, that, that I see why they didn’t put it in the late sequence.
Cause it feels like it’s going to be shocking, but I actually think it’s really interesting. Um, I wanted to pick a winner and, and then when I, when I dove deeper into time form us, I, the, you know, the blue fractions last time, the figures are a little bit slower than what Lewis field ran. They’re both kind of one way types.
I think they’re going to kind of dinged on with each other and I’m going to look either one of them can win. I’m not going to go out on a limb and tell you which one, maybe I guess I’d pick Louis field. If I had to pick one of the two, but I like New York central, I’ve always liked the horse. Um, I think last year, the Pat day mile, uh, Nick Tamra kind of turned me on to the horse where he ran second in that, in that unbelievably wild race with, you know, funny duck one and he was 31 to one.
I think he’s going to kind of get a little bit of a set up here. Um, with those two horses, kind of ding-dong and worrying about one another New York central save ground, uh, Ricardo is aggressive from the gate. He should tuck him in a little bit, save, save ground attorney, and he could be dangerous to kind of split one of those two and, or beat them.
So I think a value in the race is New York central. Um, I don’t think he’s the most likely winner, but I think he’s the most value. And he’s one that I would try to build things around and I’d love to be, be alive in some early kind of picks and things like that. Uh, with it, a big number with him. Let’s move on to this all graded stakes late, pick four, and it starts with race 10, the gala RET JK.
You talked about this a little bit on the other show, but we’ll kick off with you. And we will point out that we did go over this sequence on the NYRA bet show with NHC champions, Scott Cole. So if you want a little bit more, feel free to check that out as well. J K remind us who you liked in the gallery.
Yeah, this is the first time I think I’ve ever done the same races, two different shows. Um, so it feels a little bit weird and I don’t want to cut on our normal guest short. I look, I think that this is a very difficult race. I think you can, you know, you can make a case for about five or six of them. Uh, I’m going to make a stay in here and I’m going to try to put some value into this late pick for, um, with, with a single a of Barca.
Um, I, I thought the horse, uh, resemble something that Chad’s done successfully as of late, which is getting these grade one tight Phillies from France and him and Peter Brant bring them over here. And then they went all of our races. He did it with sister. Charlie are defending breeders’ cup, filly, and mare turf champion.
And, uh, even in the last 10 days or 14 days or 10 days, I actually did it with a horse by the name of Homer Creek. And when, when I noticed that I looked, let me check out Barker’s workouts. I go to SBTV and I checked it out in Barca, actually worked with Homer wreak. And since I was the fourth, most important, no, the seventh most important guest on our, on our, in the ring pedigree podcast.
The other day, I’m clearly qualified to look at workouts. I thought Barca was going better than Homer Homeric. And that’s enough for me to try to pick up, pick up some pieces with her while these other affiliates are going to take money. All of them I’m so fancy and flexibility, Mitchell road, Viva Vegas.
So I’ll take money. And I think that this horse could get a little bit ignored. It’s still Chad Brown. It’s still IRAD Ortiz and they’re still running on the drains. I’ll throw in a little Easter egg for the audience that I want. No comment from you on JK, but everybody knows you’re a hunched play in this race is number six.
Marshall, what do you think about the gallery? I’m going with Barca as well. I didn’t listen to the other show, so I’m not stealing the pick. You know, this is a talented horse, a grade one course overseas. They bring it to the sands point and for whatever reason, the horse doesn’t inspire it at all. I mean, uh, Tyler gasoline was working on the horse down the backside and they turned for home and, uh, you know, the, the job never went to the web, basically just folded up on the horse.
And you got to think, maybe it’s just the soft turf on the head. Maybe it’s the heavier ground. Maybe he’ll benefit mate. Maybe she’ll benefit from the faster surface, uh, Chad setting, the reset button. They give the horse in time off, uh, has some nice bullet works. And I think all those things and the fact that again, she ran so poorly in the sands point.
Maybe you’ll get a decent price for Chad. And again, I’m the same way. I always start with Chad when these turf races and, uh, when he’s not in a mop and don’t know what to do, but for this one, uh, I’m going with Barbara. Might be the only French bread who doesn’t like a little bit of cut in the ground, but who knows that race was too bad to be believed.
So I, I’m definitely seeing the case you guys are making there. All right. Let’s move on to race 11, which is the chick Lang Marshall. We’ll keep it with you. Uh, I thought this is tricky. Uh, you know, a decent amount of speed, a lot of forces that have, uh, you know, won a bunch of races. Um, I’m most interested in Tyron and P uh, preamble, I guess, Tyronn, uh, in the hope that’s the way to pronounce it.
Uh, one, two races for Ashton. I think Ashton has come here the last couple of years and done really well in these undercards. One thing that a cumulative has done a very good job at is filling up their undercard races. Especially if you look at Friday, they have some huge fields. And the way they’ve done that is they’ve given a bonus to trainers who, uh, when the most races are accrue the most points.
And so Ashton has come the last two years in one that title, and here’s a horse to, uh, has talent, uh, very fast, especially on time form us against this group. Um, these Oaklawn horses have run very well at Churchill. Uh, and so I think, uh, again, I think this horse, um, uh, we’ll, we’ll be live and it’s who I’m going to bet.
Okay. You can just give us a quick one on this so we can get this to a very in depth discussion of the Preakness, which is where we’ll spend most of our time
made a lot of sense, but I do want to ask Marshall a question, Marshall, as an owner, How would you feel about your trainer kind of pushing you along to run a horse and you kind of figure that it has something to do with this bonus they’re going to receive. Are you, are you a team player here? Does it rub you the wrong way?
How do you feel about something like that? Well, I’d be a teen clarify, thought our horse fit. I mean, most trainers want to run horses where the fit want to run a, you know, a lot of the quote, unquote super trainers. They want to run horses where they’re one to five, where they have layups, uh, you know, where they can easily win.
And so they often don’t take enough chances. So, you know, we’re getting on the van, I think, to come in here and he’s won these two titles that all of his horses in super live. And when you bought it, we totally hear, uh, rain and this race last year and just crushed them. So, um, you know, I think that if the spot looked right, I’d be gained for going, uh, and, uh, if it helped the trainer out, I’d feel like I was doing him a favor off.
And again, often with these big trainers, we’re just happy to be in a Brad Cox’s barn. Right. Uh, we don’t have all that many horses. Uh, we’re not all that major of an owner. So if we can do anything to help him, uh, you know, we’re game for it. J K, I think you can probably do the Dixie pretty quickly. If I remember your comments from the other show, why don’t we start with you?
Well, look, I’ll give you, you know, I think if you’re Haiti cap in the race, I’ll tell you, you should start with the idea of, do you think that the, uh, the Henry S. Clark was a good race or not? And that was a race that was run at Laurel on April 20th. There’s four runners from that race, I had made the decision that it’s not, I’ve got to eliminate 33% of the field.
I just want the two classy ones on the outside Catholic boy and 85% to me is good enough to win this race. He’s tactical he’s game. He tries hard. And I think Jonathan Thomas is, uh, is an up and coming young trainer. If he’s not already there, he’s up and coming. And so, and he’s got a great first name. Um, inspector Lindley is, is one is one that, um, if you look at his PPE, you’re going to see a bunch of horses that would be odds on in here, right?
Like horses he’s been running against. And so I just think those two are the easy ones. I think these big fields can sometimes get confusing and people want to reach for value. I just want those two. I’m not going to separate them. I’m going to use them equally as, as two a horses and, and just hope that one of them can work on a trip from the outside.
J K and I see this one extremely similarly, as we discussed on the other show, Marshall, do we have it right? Or are we missing a trick in this year’s Dixie? No, I see it the same way. I think that, you know, I think that if they were just wanting to give Catholic boys starch, that they would have run in the Fort Marcy out of the other, their own stall.
Right. So I, I feel like that they’re coming down here, they need business, they’ve got the classiest horse, uh, you know, hopefully six works is enough, but you know, for these lower profile trainers, would these major horses, I mean, they they’re, they’re not gonna, you know, they’re less likely to give them a race, right?
They don’t have as big of a reputation, uh, with their owners or with, uh, you know, with the general public. And so I think they’re going to come down here and they’re gonna be ready to run. They’re gonna have the scores fit and ready to go. And, uh, I see him putting on a bit of a show and I like to expect you Lindley and underneath that, I’m not gonna complicate things.
We’re going to talk about the Preakness. Now we’re going to do this differently than we usually do, rather than just give an opinion. We’re going to run through the field with a few thoughts or each of us giving a thought on. Runners where appropriate. We’ll obviously pause longer on some and rush through some others.
And then at the end, we’re going to give our verdict. So save the, you know, it’ll be obvious we’re going to tip our hands here, but let’s just try this and see if it works out. There’s the, there’s another production meeting in the middle of the show. We’re going to start talking about number one war of will, and I’ll go first.
I really, really wanted to like war of, well here, I fully believed that it wasn’t fair to try to specifically quantify the amount of lengths that that trouble cost him. I felt like for a horse, with his style to get, to get stuck in stopped, like that was just very difficult to say what would have happened from there.
I wanted to see him get the chance to get a clean run with his running style. I worry that what I’d like to see, and I think this is different than what both the guests are gonna say. I’d kinda like to just see him get positioned going forward and make the type of runs. Uh, that he’s, that he’s made through the lane.
I wonder though, if the, I think both guests might make this point that their hand is forced and he has to go to the lead. And I just, I don’t know. I worry that that’s going to cause him to be used, used too much. He’s super duper live. But I think at the end of the, the day I’m going to side against the horses coming out of the dirt.
B Marshall, what’s your thought on war of will. And as an owner in a grade one race, do you look at the form any differently than you would when you were just handicapping? I mean, yeah, I’m thinking more along the lines of how is this horse going to affect my horse. So, uh, so absolutely. And I think the fact that they drew, the one means that they’re going to have to make it, you know, a decision like they didn’t Derby.
I think they’re going to be more forwardly placed. Uh, you know, they may certainly go, I would have a hard time seeing the scores on the lead. I don’t know if ultimately he’s fast enough, right? Uh, to make the lead, but I think he could get a good settled trip. I think he could be up with the Warrior’s charge and market King, or I think he could be right off the pace.
Um, uh, it’ll be very interesting to see what they do. I guess I’d prefer if he were on the outside, because again, I think bringing him breaking from the rail and them being somewhat forced to go may just Jack up the pace of the race entirely in a broad sense, I’m going to make a play against all the Derby horses.
I mean, part of our decision process and coming to the Preakness was the fade, the Kentucky Derby, uh, they gave a buyer, gave maximum security one Oh one, uh, but you have five, uh, nine forces within five and a quarter lengths of one, another really eight within three and a three and three quarter length.
And so I’m going to say that that that number is high, that horses like, um, paluska parfait, like master fencer or not. Are not talented enough to run, you know, those kinds of, you know, the low nineties, mid nineties buyers needed to be near those other horses. And so, you know, if you can make the assumption that maybe that member’s high and maybe the Derby wasn’t that fast, then, um, you know, that’s the reason that we’re using to put warriors charging the Preakness then is a better as well.
I’m going to have to feed the Derby courses in somewhat a fade war will. Um, uh, and along with some of the other Debbie runners, J K, did we leave any meat on the bone for you on war of will? No, it just reminds me a little bit of like living in Austin, Texas, where there’s traffic. It’s like, I don’t go down 35 because there’s traffic and I don’t like traffic and it doesn’t work out good for me.
So I go in different directions. I just can’t see how they’re going to say, you know, what, given the, the, the, the, how the, the Louisiana Derby unfolded, given how the Derby unfold that we draw on the rail again, let’s take back and see if we can get lucky. I just don’t see them doing that. And I just feel like they’re going to be aggressive.
They’re going to try to get their position moving forward. Um, and, and I think that he’ll end up on the lead with warriors charge sitting right outside of, in the event that he doesn’t break. I think Warrior’s charge will be on the lead. So, um, part of me, like, I don’t like the horse in this spot, I think is going to be over bet.
His name has been said more than any other Derby horses names since the Derby. Um, Not sure if that’s strictly speaking true, but it’s been said more than the other horses in this race, in this race. Yeah. Well, that’s what I’m saying. And the horses in this race, his name has been said the most. Fair enough.
I wouldn’t say that clear. Um, I don’t need them. I think that I don’t, I don’t, I don’t need them, but I think that he could win. And so I will use him defensive loosely considering the fact that in the pic forum, you know, singling a six to one shot. So, um, I will be rooting against him and I think he’s going to have to get pretty lucky to win.
All right. Let’s talk about bourbon war JK. You, we talked about this one a bit on the other show. We’ll let you start here. Yeah, look, I hated the Florida Derby. I think a lot of people did well, I guess, except for the people that bet maximum security and the favoritism or almost favoritism, but I just didn’t like the race.
And so a code of honor was a move up for me because of the slop. But bourbon war would have been a toss for me in the Derby as well. Um, I was wrong. The race was fast and the race was good and it was productive. And he is going to have some pace to run out. You know, we’re, we’ll being sent from the rail or your charges wire to wire.
His last two starts and there’s other speed, uh, you know, drawn outside and you never know what you’re going to get from Dale and from, uh, an ind from Dewayne Lucas when it comes to an aggressive ride or an aggressive instruction. So I think he’s gonna get a good setup. I think the blinkers on is not a Mo get him more into the race thing.
It’s, uh, uh, focus and finish thing. Um, I think he’s extremely live, uh, coming out of the race that I didn’t think was very good, but I was extremely wrong about, I just want to correct. One thing you say it was the slop that made you use code of honor. I thought it was me and pretty much every other guest we had telling you that you should use the horse that made you eventually do it, but we can argue about that.
Off-air but just, no, but just because of, but, but, but most of them. I don’t know if it was John Nichols or if it was Frank McGaughey or if it was both of them that, that, that talked about his work at Keelan and the slop that they thought he moved up in a slot. So as much as I love you, I take your advice on food, on food drinks, and editing things that I write.
I do tend to not, you are not the reason I use honor. Fair enough. Speaking of which send me that file when it’s ready. All right. Marshall, where do you stand with bourbon war again? I agree with Jonathan. I think he’s going to get a great trip. Um, you know, again, revalued waiting, the Florida Derby even ran well in their closing into the slow pace.
Uh, he’s found abuse is very impressive. He should really sit the trip. And with this fast paced, uh, projected for this race really does look to come and closing. I do think. That he’s going to be the bus horse, and it’s going to be be, you know, quite a bit lower than this morning line. I think people are going to fall on him.
Anyone’s going to sort of look at that floor to Derby, look at the kind of setup he’s going to get. And I think he’s going to attract a lot of attention. And so I’m going to look in a different direction from Mike closer for this race, but, uh, there’s no doubt. He’s very live. I would love to see Mark Hennig, uh, win this race.
Um, and, uh, you know, again certainly fits. That’s a good point about the morning line. Maybe being slightly off there, if you are a UK or Irish listener and you have the opportunity to bet bourbon war each way at 12 to one, meaning you could potentially get a quarter of the odds. If you just finish in the top three, that’d probably be the value of the race at the end of the day.
For me, I don’t think those prices are going to materialize, but they may keep your eyes out. If you have the ability to bet into those markets. Number three is Warrior’s charge. We’ve talked about them a bunch already. Uh, you know, I’m a huge fan of this horse. I like the idea that he’s the best speed signed on, but you don’t need me and JK to tell you about warriors charge.
We got Marshall for that. We talked about the process, um, that went into the decision to enter him here, uh, objectively. How do you assess your chances, Marshall? Well, again, we wouldn’t be here if we didn’t think we had a big chance, um, you know, we’re going to have to go. Uh, and I think that, uh, you know, I think that sort of all the comments I’m hearing from, from the other sort of trainers owners in here is, uh, you know, they’re going to go, it sounds like improbable will show more speed.
Sounds like market King will go, uh, we’ve got a war wheel on the rail. So you know what that does to the overall pace of the race. Very concerned, but ultimately if you look at the horse, he’s probably the fastest to get out there. I think it’s us and maybe market King. So, you know, I think there’s a chance it could be a fast paced that we could still be out there ahead by a link, uh, or, uh, you know, be ahead by a half with them probable right on us.
So, um, you know, again, we’ve got a horse that has shown, uh, the ability to, uh, Uh, you know, to set a controlling pace, uh, you know, he’s never faced this kind of competition, uh, in his two races that he’s won and been impressive and he’s never, he’s never faced early pressure. And so, you know, we’ll learn a lot about the horse and of course he’s a money.
And so we’re very concerned about his ability to get the last eighth of a mile. So in my dream world, when I designed this race, you know, we get the, you know, we get a little bit of a loose lead we’re ahead by a length. And, uh, you know, we turned for home ahead. And at that point we hold on and hope he can keep on running.
So, uh, so we’ll see. I mean, keep my fingers crossed. I think we fit, we fit on the numbers and, uh, um, you know, we figured to be up there upfront JK, feel free to loop back and talk about Warrior’s charge, but I think we’ve covered it pretty well. And you can also just move us along to improbable the five to two morning line favorite.
Well, as long as I don’t go to Hamilton, he’s got a live shot, right. I mean, as long as I’m not there and he doesn’t go to Hamilton and I don’t go to Hamilton, he can, he can, does Marshall know this story? I’m not. Did the listeners even remember the story? You’ll have to explain that because that was on the breeding show.
People might not have even heard that. I knew how much they liked this horse. And I was in Chicago. It was, I believe it was Thanksgiving day or the day after Thanksgiving, uh, or that weekend, at least. And I was going to Hamilton in Chicago. And, uh, I had kind of agreed to my girlfriend, no horse racing for the day.
I’m going to focus on Hamilton, but luckily she knows Marshall and I was like, Marshall’s got a horse running, I’m going a single minute, pick five. And I won’t watch the other races, but you know, whatever. And so the first intermission he was supposed to run, they got a little bit behind. I didn’t get to watch the horse.
I faked, like I went to the bathroom and I couldn’t get a signal to watch the race. He ran third that day. He was extremely wide. And then I was there on February 18th when he got beat. At Oaklawn. So I’m the, I guess, on the bad luck charm. So I won’t show up. I’ll stay far, far away from Baltimore. That’s the real reason I’m not going.
I think he’s live. I really do. And, uh, and obviously my heart is involved in that, but I think he has an absolute chance. I don’t want to hear anything about you even busting out the soundtrack of Hamilton on Saturday, JK Lin, Manuel Miranda will forgive you. I promise. Take us to improbable. So Pete and I don’t fight, but people don’t listen to the show, know how true this is, but keep going.
We don’t fight. We, we, we almost thought about this horse though. All right. So Pete has told me, and I think he’s kind of backed off of it a little bit. Not totally that he didn’t think the horse saw the trip out. He didn’t want the mile and a quarter. Oh, I agree with that. Yeah. He had a good trip, not a perfect trip.
And I’m still a little disappointed with the good trip that he didn’t kind of persevere and go on with it. And, but I didn’t feel like he did anything to embarrass himself in the stretch. The problem is he’s going to be unbelievably overbid. Bob Baffert is going for his eighth and record Preakness victory.
He’s the, he’s the buzz used the most, you know, he was the, he ended up being the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. Then that last click four to one. And I, I think that that a maximum security was like four to one in change. Um, and so he just going to be over bed. I don’t have the, the, the, the gall to toss the horse.
Um, I’m going to use him and, and, and, but he is vulnerable in this spot. Um, but I do think he’s the most likely winner. So do what you will with that information, but I think he’s got a good shot on him. The distance is an issue for him at all, and I’m, I’m happy to see him back on a fast track. Marshall, you really tipped your hand about this one already, but what do you have to add when it comes to improbable and your decision you’ve already indicated to fade him?
What does it have to which specific factor does it have to do with? Uh, well, I’m not, I can’t make the, he can’t get them out three 16 sees that excuse when I’m running a. Might not be only at the three 16 some money. So again, I’m going with the broader decision to, to fade the Kentucky Derby horses. I thought his performance was fine.
I don’t think that he was running out of gas, but Derby was a strangely run race. They really slowed it down the middle. And then they, they ran home pretty quickly. Right. They ran that last, uh, quarter and, you know, 25 in one. And so I think at that point, everyone was really doing some running. At that point, you got to kind of got left flat-footed and couldn’t quite catch him.
But again, it was part of that sort of massive horses that, uh, that finished together under the wire. Um, so again, I think that he’s a legitimate favorite. I think a lot of people are going to, you know, look at this move from, from iRead to Mike Smith. Uh, again, I think that’s one indication that they’re going to the.
That places force more forwardly. You know, I think this horse will, will be right off the pace, uh, you know, or maybe right on the look maybe again, within the length of the lead early on. And, uh, and, uh, you know, we’ll be moving towards leaders ahead of stretch. I’m just, I’m just hopeful that, uh, that group is not as strong as, uh, as the new shooters fun JK, should we do a head to head war of will against improbable.
I’d like it so much more without the rail, but I think I have to put my money where my mouth is here and challenge you on this one. See if I can improve my lifetime record two, six and 252 and these head to heads. Well, what do they call that? A you watch billions, right? Sadomasochist. You liked the pain of me being absolutely
the number five. Marshall, when you have your trainer, the Torah, the man who trains your horse has another horse in a race like this. Obviously in this case, you came second to the party. So it’s not like, uh, you know, you, you obviously wouldn’t have anything against Owendale being in the race, but what kind of political hurdles could that potentially present?
And what do you think of O’Dell’s chances here? Well, I’ve had a lot of people ask me, uh, if, if, uh, warriors charges in it as a rabbit for Owendale. And so if we were that’s very expensive, right? I was going to say no economics majors in the, in that group asking that one, I’m going to guess. No, not at all.
So, uh, I mean, again, when I was pitching the idea to Brad, that, that we should take our shot. You know, one of the important things is that we wouldn’t compromise this other horse. In fact, I think in many ways we enhance his other horses chances. And so, you know, Owen, Dale wins, uh, you know, I’ll be thrilled for Brad.
I’ll be thrilled for the re-up racing, the partners involved in that. Um, uh, and so, um, yeah, we know those guys, uh, John Wentworth and, um, And, uh, and so, uh, we’d be excited for them. They got a hell of a horse. I think it was horse is a big shot. This is the closer I want. I think we’re going to get a good price.
It can be a longer shot in bourbon, works a little bit more, uh, low profile. And I thought, I thought it was Lexington was really impressive. I mean, a got the lead and did it very easily, uh, you know, looked like could have just crushed that field as early as he took the lead in, in, in many ways poorly. And so that’s why he was that far behind turned out to be fortuitous.
But, um, um, you know, I think this horse can make a big run and it’s going to run is the ratio set up for him? And, and he’s the closer I won.
Yeah. He’s a use for me, for sure. I, I, um, you know, if you like bourbon war, if you like, uh, closers, if you like that this race has the potential of falling apart and, uh, for warriors charges sake, we hope that’s not the case. He’s definitely one that makes a ton of sense. So. Um, you know, I think in the write-up I did, I used them as an, a horse I’ve spread in this race because I it’s, it’s tricky, man.
It’s, it’s the hardest Preakness that I’ve ever looked at because it’s, uh, a handicapping puzzle we’re not used to doing right. Which is quality horses coming back in two weeks. That doesn’t happen any other time of the year. And then to make it even more complicated. It, you know, the top, you know, I’m doing air quotes, the top four finishers of the Derby aren’t in this race.
And so I, I don’t, I don’t know what to do. It’s like a new thing for me. And so, um, I I’m using both of Brad’s horses and, and I think that Owendale does make a ton of sense as a close you, you ran well in that race at Kima with that short strip, he’ll be in my box, my efficiently bet box exact, uh, beating the horses out of the Derby for sure.
Market King pace factor. Um, Marshall. I mean, I don’t have much to say about marketing other than he looks like an elimination and a pace factor, but Marshall, this is the one that I’m really curious when you look at the PPS and you see this horse, what is, what is your thought process? Yeah, I, I don’t, you know, this horse could, could break first and be three lengths out in front, a sitting as suicidal pace.
Wouldn’t shock me to see this horse, uh, way back in the field. I mean, he was a gate, scratch it, Churchill. Uh, but he’s gotten John quarter a board and, you know, he’s a fast horse to, uh, Uh, you know, maybe better sprinting, I mean, had I had a great trip in the rebel, the finished third, so maybe that’s their excuse for, for running here.
Uh, um, I mean, it seems like an impossible shot, but, but certainly gonna influence the race, uh, by the strategy that they use. And I think they’re going to go, so, um, you know, if, if they, if they set a suicidal pace, uh, then uh, then that horse will be out front and we’ll will that race, the race will, could potentially collapse, um, or it could be a right in a scrum of horses, the hitting that first turn, uh, at Pimlico, uh, um, again, be very interesting to see what they do.
Ultimately, I don’t see this horse. I have a hard time putting this horse in the top half of the field, but, uh, but we’ll have a big influence on the race. Could you see any world in which warriors charged were to try to sit behind market King if they do something crazy? Yeah, I think that, you know, like, you know, our intention is to go, but Warrior’s charge has passed horses before.
Uh, and so if they do something stupid. We’re not gonna blow up our horse. Um, we’re not gonna blow up our horse because cause this horse is out there going 22 and 44. Right. So, um, so I could see a scenario where market King is two in front and then we’re sitting behind and then, you know, another link behind her or probable world will, um, and another twist of fate.
So I think, I think in that situation we could be off the page. I think more than likely we’ll be right with market King, uh, setting a, a decent, decent fractions. We’ve got plenty, more horses to talk about. We are running low on time, gentlemen. So feel free to trim up any comments about, uh, some of these longer shots, if you don’t like them as we go through.
But obviously if there’s things you like and things you have to say, we’ll, we’ll, we’ll make it work. Number seven is always mining. I remember. 20 years ago, my friend Kim Eisler who one of the first sort of mentor figures I had when I came into racing in the nineties. And I remember him being dismissive in 97 or 98, there was a Tessio winner who was bat hard into the teeth of the horses coming back from the Derby.
And I remember him saying, can you believe this educated people wasting their money on the Tessio winner in the pre-K? Yes. Now, since then, I don’t know that there’s a Tessio winner. Who’s had much of an impact, but as we’ve said, many times on the show, we haven’t had a lot of Preakness is like, this is this the year JK that the Tessio winner maybe gets a sniff in the Preakness.
Uh, I don’t think so. Um, I will tell you this, our, our friend in front of the podcast, uh, Chris Pippin, the Piper, he loves the horse. So, uh, if you like Chris’s opinion and you want that to sway you, then then feel free. I don’t, I don’t need them. Um, I think over bet horses like this with all those ones, I just think he’s gonna be, he’s gonna be a shorter price than he should be.
Uh, maybe he can get a piece. I just think there’s too many other quality animals in here and I don’t have them anywhere. Marshall. I’m against them as well. Again, it’s won a lot of races. I don’t think it would be close to that. Eight to one real bus Wars, uh, uh, you know, and it’s a great story. Uh, Maryland bred a local force, uh, like this hasn’t won the Derby in a long time, maybe since the Pew testimony in 1983, which is the first Preakness I can remember.
Um, but that being said, I, I just don’t know these beaten anyone and been, you know, sort of forced effort coming off a bit of a layoff, but it never really had to set any sort of fractions. And I think that, uh, you know, this race is going to be a lot faster than, than what he’s faced. And, uh, um, I’m, I’m going to be against the force in part, because it’s just not gonna offer any, any value whatsoever.
I have nothing to add. Let’s move on to number eight signal man installed a 30 to one on the morning line. One of the ones you could land on, if you’re looking to make plays against the Derby runners in the exact or even trifecta Marshall, will you have any eights adorning your tickets? I think, uh, McPeak is, uh, you know, the, the way he trains his horses and the way his horse has had this sort of closing style as often, often his horses show up underneath the second or third.
And so I will see this horse the underneath and my tries to some extent, I think this horse to get reasonable shots is step back, make, make one run and, uh, hit the board and, uh, hit the board of decent price and offer a chance to cash. Good tickets. Uh, uh, I have a hard time seeing this horse winning, uh, relative to the other closures, but no one shot me in off this horse.
Ran, ran a good race and hit the board. The word key. Marshall, did you more mean include or will you build some bets around the idea of signal, man, getting a little, no, I’ll build some bets because I think you’re going to get a very nice price on this horse and I think there’s a good shot. This horse can finish third.
So I will build some bets exclusively with civil man to hit the board. JK your view on signal, man. I’m not going to add a lot. I think he’s got an unbelievable shot to run third or fourth, and he’s gotten zero chance to win. So, um, you know, he’s the type that you can reverse key and, and, you know, and, and pop them in their third and fourth with the logical horses in first and second.
But I, you know, I don’t see if it fall, if it completely falls apart, he still not the one that wins to me. I can think of five other ones I’d rather have. Alright. Bodie express. Uh, the famous maiden is here. Marshall you’ve tipped your hand pretty well on him. We’ll start with JK on this one. No, he was actually pretty tricky.
I think that, you know, the, the, the event that, that I will no longer speak about it. He was actually. He was affected a little bit in that situation. He had himself in an okay position and, and, uh, I think he’s actually sneaky. I think he’s a sneaky horse to use underneath. I don’t see him winning, uh, but he has a type that I could see, like run second with a really good trip or something weird happens or, and he’ll be a huge price.
So, um, I can’t come up with any scenario in which he wins, but I can come up with a scenario in which he runs. Okay. Remember he was chasing maximum security down the Florida Derby and the maximum security obviously, uh, ran the best race in the Derby. Some reason I want to say, uh, I guess maybe the pedigree and the running lines.
I want to say cut back for this one. Marshall, where do you stand? Yeah, I agree. I think he’s, you know, likely a sprinter, but maybe some of these other horses are as well and likely to be on or near that fast paced. No, again, I do think, you know, in re-evaluating his Florida Derby, I think that was, you know, better than we’d been at credit score and he had excuses in the Derby.
And, uh, and so again, I could see him running well, I don’t see him winning, but I really don’t have much more to add. I’m not going to use him at all. I might take it though. Ever fast is the longest shot on the morning line. I don’t have much to say. I mean, obviously have a lot of respect for Dale, Romans, but I can’t be throwing this one in for me, JK.
Yeah, this is, this feels like a Calumet and Brett, Brad, Kelly, Dale, Romans let’s put them on a plane. Why not see what happens? Grab some crab cakes go to the sale. I mean, I don’t see it with all due respect. I think Dale Romans is a brilliant trainer. I just, I, this one doesn’t make sense to me. This guy’s sticking it to us would be no surprise, but you got to go with what your opinion is.
Not your, I think you can go wrong sometimes if you’re just too respectful, you end up including everybody Marshall ever fast. Yeah. I mean, again, he’ll be an enormous price and I guess you could build a scenario where he could finish third or fourth at the race collapses and fill out a giant trier super, but that’s probably imagining a line to this race and just, just too slow.
The 11 is laughing Fox for Steve S mucin Marshall. We’ll start with you. You know, I thought that Oakland invitation was a pretty fast race when it came right down to it. Um, uh, and so I, you know, I think again is another one of these closures that’s going to get, get a decent trip potentially. Um, but, uh, you know, I, I still prefer Owendale Dale to him, especially, you know, the time that these other urban Warren ODALE has had versus this horse, uh, you know, running in his third race in five weeks, basically like those other, like those other, like the Derby horses.
But, um, I mean, this horse has a chance I can see scenario where the source wins in terms of your final decision about putting on the tickets. Is it a yay or an a I’ll watch the board a little, uh, you know, I think, uh, you know, if you’re getting 30 to one, uh, I’m gonna use just a little bit, uh, I’ll use just a little bit of, uh, if I’m getting the right price.
Gotcha. The perfect answer, JK, uh, nowhere versus greatest thanks company. Uh, he’s beaten 12 beaten seven. Um, I, you know, I, I don’t need, I mean, Ricardo hasn’t figured them out. Um, when he, you know, he’s facing these older horses, he’s drawn outside. I can’t envision him getting a trip where he saves any ground.
Um, he won’t be on anything for me. You said older horses, you just meant better. Oh yeah. I’m sorry. I meant, yeah, not all the words I meant graded stakes horses. Gotcha. The 12 is another twist of fate who we had on the monster. Potted DeRosa talking about his deep and abiding love for, I would imagine the DeRosa box we’ll be heading this way.
Will we see any kitchen cap? Yeah. You know, I think that he’s a perfect underneath type. I don’t, you know, second, third, fourth. Um, once again, I don’t see how he’s going to get a trip. That’s going to win this race. He’s he’s tactical. He’s a full word type. He’s not a need to lead or, or, or press the lead type.
He’s a fuller typing from the 12 hole with all that other speed inside of them. I can’t envision how he gets a trip where he’s not three or four wide on, on both turns and, and, uh, and, and beating some of the quality animals that are in this race with a three or four wide trip. Um, no, thank you. Marshall.
Yeah, I’m against him. He’s going to be over bed. That’s all. I thought he was somewhat exposed in the Lexington. Um, I guess you could say it was up closer to that fast paced, but I mean, Oh, and Dale went by that horse, uh, uh, you know, would buy that field fairly easily in, um, in six to one morning line. I think he may be a little bit higher than that, but, um, um, uh, not using the source at all.
And then our final entrance to talk about is the number 13. Win-win win difficult posts out here as well. This is a horse I’ve always respected and I could see maybe including in, in, uh, some sort of underneath role just based on my previous affection for him. But I can’t really say that. I, I love the chances from this difficult post, given my view of the Derby.
Marshall, is this yet another Derby contestant that you’re against. Yeah. Um, you know, he was a horse that had all that trouble in the bluegrass, a horse that maybe five years ago would have fallen in love with the Derby. And now those horses, I tend to really sort of dislike, uh, because the public really tends to jump on them, you know, is a, is a deep closure.
What’s strange about this race. If we have a lot of horses that want to go in a lot of forces that want to close, we’re pretty far back. And so it sort of makes for really interesting way to think about how this race is run. Um, and so again, the 13, he should be able to sort of sit back and make one run.
Uh, again, I’m just, I just prefer Owendale in Africa, Gribbin war. Gotcha. But one that might appear on some tickets or not even, uh, again, given the price, I think he’s going to be, he’s probably going to be a play against right. It’s 10 15, the one I don’t think I’m going to use, but higher than 20, maybe you would reconsider in your version.
Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Everything’s priced dependent, right? Um, J K you where you with win-win win. You mentioned the trouble in, in the, in the bluegrass. And, uh, I think he became kind of a buzz horse based on that and the interesting workout where he kind of hooked up with tasks and, and, and the eventual Derby, winter country house, um, you know, he, he kind of didn’t really have a good trip in the Derby either.
Um, and, and if it wasn’t the Kentucky Derby don’t get me wrong, I am not accusing of it. And it wasn’t the Kentucky Derby, the ride, and the stretch would like, look like what we would call like a stiff, like he wasn’t riding them in a stretch because he knew he wasn’t going to get anywhere. What’s the point of, of, of wailing away on them and carrying on to run nights, right.
He just kind of split the field. He let him run in the stretch. I think he might’ve had a little bit more to offer. I think he probably saved a little bit late and I think that he’s probably the horse. That makes the most sense for me if I was the type of player that like, you know, third and fourth keyed horses, I think he’s got a great shot to get involved and to come running late.
I’ve bet. They’ll, they’ll take, they’ll take back from the rail and make one run and see what they can’t make happen. All right. We are just about out of time, but we have a quick verdict from each of us. Uh, you go first, Jonathan. Bourbon for me. I it’s my, uh, it’s my top pick. And, um, and I’m, um, I’m fortunate enough that, that I indirectly have two topics, right?
I I’m going to be rooting like heck for warriors charge. And, uh, my, my pick on paper to not be a complete homers is going to be bourbon war. I, I worry about the pace as I’m sure Marshall and, and everyone at 10 strike is concerned about, um, I think bourbon war offers offers a little bit of value based on, on what we saw now, if he gets over bet like Marshall predicts and, and, and, and Marshall was one of my go-to math predictors.
If he thinks it’s going to be over bet, he probably will be. And if he gets to be down in the single digits, uh, I’ll probably be a little bit less enthusiastic, but I think he does make a lot of sense. And, and I worry that he’s going to get a great set up. Marshall, your final verdict on this year’s Preakness.
Well, I mean, obviously I got to go with the home team and root for the home team, uh, with warriors charge, but I’m not going to bet where charged the reality is that so much more to gain by him winning than any dollar amount I can bet on him. So from a betting standpoint, I’m going to bet Owendale, but I think that, uh, you know, if, if the race collapses, I think he’s the one that’s going to offer the best value.
And, uh, he’s been training really well in, uh, coming off five weeks, rest are in huge and Lexington has really turned. The corner is really kind of a now horse. And I think we’re going to get every bit of 10 to one, if not more. So that’s where my betting money is going to be my, obviously my heart and all my cheerings.
And before he was charged, I think we’ve got a big chance. All horses doing really well. I just hope we get the right trip and the horse can go mile through 16th. I picked you in my app. I’ve already made my bed on warriors charge. That’s exactly right. I, I picked you in, in the, in the, at the races piece I wrote and wagering purposes, I’ll definitely be looking to efficiently play urban war warriors charge, and Owendale in the exact, uh, if the price is allowed and the risk reward is there for a three horse wind Dutch, I’d almost consider that as well.
I would consider that as well. I’m not going to hedge anyway. Thank you, gentlemen. Great to have you want to thank Nate newbie, Marshall Graham, Jonathan Kenshin. Most of all, I want to thank all of you for listening. You make the show so much fun to do, and we appreciate all of your feedback. We’ll also thank our partners.
Hey, 10 strike racing, thoroughbred retirement foundation, black type thoroughbreds. For all the support that you give along the way, this show has been a production of in the money media in the money media’s business manager is drew Kotani. I’m Peter Thomas foreign Italian. But you want all your photos?
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