Photo by Chelsea Durand
It’s Belmont Stakes day and PTF and JK are here to go over a whole lotta stakes races (7:10), culminating with the big one (40:15). Plus, bonus coverage of the Woodbine Oaks with Dawn Lupul (48:15) and Monmouth’s Unbridled Elaine stakes with Brian Skirka (59:15).
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***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***
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Your listening to the, in the money players podcast.
Hello, and welcome to the end. The money players podcast. This is show number 49 one. I’ve been waiting for eagerly our Belmont stake show. I’m Peter Thomas foreign, a towel back with you in the Brooklyn bunker. Once again for our third Niara show this week, boy, we are, uh, we are really rocking it out with this Belmont stakes festival.
And that’s because not only is New York a circuit. We love to pay attention to not only our Niara one of our partners, but it’s just really good and interesting racing. And I’m very pleased to have back as my co-pilot once again, man, who did such an able job steering the ship while I was off drinking wine and eating Naoki last weekend in Piedmont day, I’m talking about the people’s champion.
He’s on the planet, Texas. He is Jonathan kitchen JK. What’s up. I actually know that that Yogi starts with a G that’s. How so? How much of a world traveler? I am actually, I guess I just have a, I hang out with an Italian American a lot, I guess probably I figured it w who’s eating Naoki in your presence. Me.
Yeah, you actually, we, we, how did it this place I went to in Chicago with Jack Jenkins. It’s like a, it’s like a top of style, Italian place, a bunch of small plates of like they had, he ordered the gnocchi or whatever. Really a great idea for a restaurant that you see. Occasionally I can think of a few places in New York.
I think IL Buco sometimes doesn’t like that, but Italian food it’s so great when it’s shared and family style is great when you’ve got a billion people, but you can sort of like reduce it into a manageable sense and, and make it work as Tappas where you still get to eat like 12 different things. Or maybe not 12, unless you’re me, but eat the three or four different things to get a chance to really sample through the menu, not spend an arm and a leg and not get to stuff.
That’s a, it’s a great idea for the modern world. Italian Tappas JK. I liked that. I’m glad you mentioned it. Well, I’m I’m so I’m here for, I’m here to I’m here as a culinary expert and a casual horseplayer. Uh, Jack Jenkins knows his food too. It gave me an excellent recipe for salmon dip. We did in the backyard at Saratoga.
At one point, we got to get him back up there, hopefully, and we got to get him on our new venture, the, in the ring pedigree podcast, because among other talents, very good at, uh, know, understands breeding. He understands the horseman side of things a little bit, but I haven’t seen too many better when it comes to analyzing breezes that are going to help.
Now, I don’t know if he’s ever done it in the context of helping somebody buy a horse, but I know when it comes to two-year-old racing, he’s very good at it. Have you ever talked to him about where he developed that skill? You know, Jack is a, is a guy that just, uh, I think when he first got involved in racing and a horse play, and he just started like looking at the two year old sales works for, for startling off for first time starters and stuff.
And he really just, you know, took pride in it. And, and I think he kind of Combs through the sales, whether he’s, you know, helping a friend look at something or not. And, and, uh, I think he takes it pretty seriously, has developed a real skill at it. He can, he can have some really intelligent conversations with.
With horsemen about how a horse traveling and what kind of surface it looks like they’re looking for or what kind of distance they might want. He’s a must get for the pedigree show, because as we’ve seen already, you and I have both asked questions in the short history of that show that I think as soon as they left our mouths, we realized we’re asking somebody, something that is really hard for them to answer because of their professional responsibilities and, you know, not wanting to give too much away and, or, I mean, just a million political reasons.
There’s a lot of people who can’t speak with like a full horseplayer honesty when they’re talking about something like a sales catalog or, uh, or breezes Jack Jenkins, horseplayer doesn’t have any of those impediments. We might be able to get him on here to talk about not necessarily ahead of a sale though, maybe, but really when it comes to some of the good two year old racing at places like Del Mar and Saratoga, I wonder if he’d be kind enough to come on and drop some knowledge on us.
What do you think? Absolutely. He’s also one of my favorite people to listen to talk. I, uh, he’s also my favorite. Impersonation to do with that. Now you got to do it. Oh, I can’t do it. Cause I won’t do it as good. I’ll sneak it in at some point. I’ll answer one of your questions at some point during the show.
As Jack Jenkins. All right. We’ll be on the lookout for that folks. I think he’s going to spin us. So don’t get too excited. Jack was on the show. Once it was back, it was in the pre-kinder era. And it was like this two week period where due to some strange feedback, we were getting from the old powers that be a video element to the show.
And he was great, but I don’t think he was super comfortable with the video element or something. Cause like talking to him subsequently, he didn’t like seem that into it, but I bet you now voice only we twist his arm. We’ll get him in there. And you mentioned the accent and all I’ll say is this. I once heard him talk about somebody and he described them as, as real country.
And I said to myself, listening to his draw, you know, real country. That really means something coming from Jack Jenkins. So anyway, we’ve built him up. Good enough. Well, he’s got two sayings. You have to say, if you ever run into him, you got to ask him about it. He’s got one about, uh, about a cat. That’s a hilarious thing.
He also has one about a swinging bucket. And I don’t think you’re going to talk about either one of those on the airwaves. So the DME, if you want the, uh, the insides of those, but I’ve never laughed harder than when he got, when I heard him say those in his inimitable accent. Yeah. Those are both an S F w so we will skip them for the airwaves, but D M J K.
And he’ll sort you out. Wow. On the show run. I did not have five minutes on Jack Jenkins today, but yet that’s what we did. I promise we’ll get him on soon and it will be worth it for everybody involved. I think we should just dive right in. We’ve got a lot of stakes races on Saturday, JK. And, you know, it’s early in the week, but these are horses we know pretty well.
And I don’t know how much our opinions are going to change. Even when we dive deeper, if anything is to change that significant, we’ll make sure to let people know on Twitter, but we’re going to start off with the grade one, just the game and the return to the races of rushing fall, who just looks very, very tough to beat to me in here.
God’s stormy does have the angle that I always talk about, about moving into a hot pace. I could maybe see a little God stormy in there as a backup, but I think for me, 80% of the play, if not more is going through rushing fall, what do you think six is too good. Um, I want to get in and I want to support daddy as a legend.
Obviously I respect George Weaver as a trainer, but I also respect this, this Philly as a, as a race horse. And if you look back, I think she’s kind of always wanted this kind of one turn ish, half a one turn ish mile at Belmont. She got it. Uh, as a two year old, but she ran into rushing fall that day. I think she’s going to have the same problem here.
Running into Russian fall is going to be a problematic rushing fall is just tactical. She finishes she’s, uh, she’s confident. She’s confidently written. She’s Welsh. I mean, there’s a lot of reasons why I think she’s going to be tough in this spot. And I, and I’m not really interested in anyone else, except for daddy as a legend, like you said, 80, 80% rushing fall.
20%. Daddy is a legend. I’ll be rooting like, heck for daddy as a legend. But I think rushing fall will be the pickup. Make no mistake. It’s not a field of tomato cans. I just think rushing fall is that good? Let’s move on to race five, the Ogden Phipps mile and a 16th grade one on the dirt. Another big star in here in midnight.
Bisou looks awfully tough to beat once again, a little bit dumb, a little bit chalky here early. What am I, what can I tell you? It is what it is. Start on the left side of the page and look for all of the races that are a mile and a 16th, then scroll over to the right side of the page and see how many of them she’s one.
Well on the 16th, when Mount a 16th, when Mount a 16th wins second win, win, win. I just think that this distance fits her perfectly. I think the one turn nature of this mile and a 16th fits her perfectly. Um, come dancing is a real running son of a gun, but I just feel like midnight Bisou is just too good for these and this spot with that setup.
Um, come dancing as a little bit more tactical, but I think Mike will keep her close enough and it will turn into a sprint for home in the last eighth of a mile. And I don’t think come dancing once that now come dancing is written very aggressively by Manny and she opens up by two or three, like she’s done in her last two races.
There’s a possibility that she’ll wire for the inside. Um, but I just don’t think that’s how she’ll be written. I think she’ll be written to try to reserve and all of those things. Um, I just think that that midnight is too good. I agree. I’m just going to ask you quickly about the bedding. I mean, if you could, if you could lock in the evens on BCU, I would certainly do that.
Do you think these two are going to be as close in the bedding as the morning line suggests they are? Do you think be Sue will be hammered? You know, I, I think that, I think that, that, you know, the time form us pays projector has come dancing kind of loose ish. So I, I worry that I don’t worry. I think that the public will probably see that as well.
Okay. Um, so you also have to be, yeah, it could be pretty close to that, you know, and then be Sue is, is, you know, she’s been reeling off wins though. That’s one concern to ask. You said obviously a bigger household name than Carlos Martin. Um, Mike Smith had a bigger household name than Manny Franco, although we’ve, we don’t need to even say that we’re huge Manny Frank girlfriend fans on the show.
So I’ll be interested to see, I think mopeds ism is the one that you could split courses with. You know, maybe if one of those two gets split in the exact, I think MOPA TISM is kind of a sneaky one. She’ll probably get taken back and make one run. And, uh, she’s a, she’s a classy Phili in her own, right. I’ll be rooting for Pacific way.
And our friend Dom Savvidis owns a little piece of, uh, Pacific wind. So we’ll, we’ll root for her, but I think it’s the top two are gonna run one, two in here and definitely the top two will fill out two thirds of the trifecta right now for the English listeners. Assuming this holds from Wednesday afternoon, when we’re recording this five to four on midnight.
Bisou I’d bet that am I right? I think you are. Yeah, I think, I think you are. There’s a chance she’ll go off odds on, um, there’s a strong chance come dancing has a unbelievably fast. Time for me, U S figure to back strain a one 35. That’s like breeders’ cup classic type of stuff. Um, she did it going seven.
She, she did it on the lead going slow, but she did it one 35. And so that, that, that could, you know, that could influence the speed figures. Obviously we’ve always talked about speed figures are the determining factor in this market. And that’s a fast one. I think I’m going to see what we can do. Uh, would that be Sue positioned potentially with that?
Let’s move on to the Jaipur and we’ve got another big favorite in here is the parade of chalk on this show going to continue JK with you and world of trouble. I mean, I’m sorry. I want to be more creative and I’ll be more creative later. I promise. Um, this horse is just fast. If you look at his time form us figure.
When he won the, uh, the, his two races, one at Belmont leading into the breeders’ cup turf sprint, he went one 31. And one 30. He is so, so fast. He’s run well on this, this surface before gets Manny, Franco’s not going to make any mistakes or has Manny. Frank was not gonna make any mistakes in terms of, of familiarity with the turf course.
He he’s just a layover to me now, can he get beat shirts, a turf spread? And he misses a break. It’s over. There’s an old horse in here that I’m going to try to use a little bit. And he’s a horse that I thought was done, but a horse that I think really likes this distance, if not further, when it comes to turf sprinting and that’s undrafted, I think he’ll be written that way.
He’ll get paced to close into cause world of troubles and a set of fast paced, whether he’s being pressured or not, he is drawn down inside. I think he’ll save some ground. He’s run well at Belmont before, and he ran sneaky. Good. Last time at church, he’ll go in five and a half. Where world in trouble, uh, got loosened and ran away from all of them.
Um, world of trouble. Last time was actually a tip. He was a tip for my, uh, for, for our bartender at Churchill was nothing easier than give a, to give a, give a tip on a two to five shot or one five tip you. Don’t you, you, did you hand a hundred dollar wind ticket or you just said bet, world of trouble, a hundred dollars.
Who do you think I am? I think it was, uh, I think actually I do think it was 55 for the whole day. It was a group of us. So I think, I think undrafted is a little bit interesting at a price. Yeah, that’s interesting. I can’t get away from disco partner as to you somewhere in here. Just you’d be the preference for Belmont and having run so well in this race and should be another, uh, phrase I used when describing Homer in a previous show, but one that should be laid out for this.
Do you see disco partner in the spot? I do. I think he makes a lot of sense. The problem that I have with him is that he’s going to be short. He’ll be the second part. He’ll be the second, you know, uh, the second choice and. I don’t necessarily want the second choice when I absolutely love the first choice, if that makes sense.
It makes perfect sense. Right? Part of what made me interested is not a bad price at all in the UK. I’m seeing some nine to two on disco partner. That’s what really made that stick in my head, but you’re probably right. That’s one who’s going to be over bet likely on, on the tote. Uh, I don’t think you’re going to be seeing that nine to two anyway, but maybe a possible alternative and then try to save with world of trouble on top and exact doesn’t tries for me that sounded like a reasonable strategy at those prices.
It does. It does make sense. Belvoir. Bay’s another one that’s a little bit interesting to Peter Miller has been ice cold. I think when I was doing the Churchill’s show on Sunday, he was one for 21 in the last 30 days. Um, that was that, that was at Churchill. Um, so it could be a Kentucky thing, you know, obviously he’s run well and he’s.
I have horses that have run well in New York in the past. I remember Roy H and I think maybe stormy liberal or, or one of his turf sprinters ran really big on Belmont day, a few years back. So, um, maybe he’ll kind of find his groove in New York, but bill for Bay’s going to have to run her eyeballs out, in my opinion, to beat world of trouble or to even beat disco partner.
You’ve got a big head to head going in the acorn with the return to the races of Serengeti emphasis. Really eager to hear your thoughts on this one. Boy, is there a lot of speed signed on supersonic seeming? Where do you land? And what’s your objective assessment of this head-to-head bet that you made and tell, remind the listener.
Yeah, Craig Burnett. And I made a bet that, uh, I made a wager that she wouldn’t want another grade one, not cause I don’t think she’s a talented horse. Wait another grade one or another race. I thought you said another race. Well, I wish you would have said that because I talked to Craig at lunch the other day, he remembered it is a great one that go with that.
Go with grade one. I took his word for it. Um, not because I don’t think she’s talented it’s because I think that she’s worth so much money now as a grade one winner of the Kentucky Oaks, that when think she’ll, they’ll only run her now and kind of grade ones, if they run her in less than grade ones, they’ll be prepped for grade ones.
And if those grade ones don’t go well, she won’t get a lot of chances at them. Cause she’s worth so much as a broodmare that’s a good point. It might not effectively be that much difference between those two things I given. And you have to, you can’t have this conversation without mentioning that she did have that bleeding episode, a couple of races back, which also could potentially hasten a decision to become a brood mare with that wonderful Oak’s win on the resume already.
What do you think about our chances in here objectively? I, I really, uh, I will be placing wagers. That do not have her on tickets. Okay. Um, I love the seven guarana that horse ran huge at Keenan on debut, um, was training extremely well. Leading up to that, ran on that, in that race on debut ran a one 13 time form us and then Serengeti emphasis, best race of her entire career of her eight race career.
Her best figures on one 13 time form us. So there’s obviously an opportunity for Gore on it to improve. There’s an opportunity for guarana to run a better on a fast track. If he added distance. All of those things are reasons why I’m very interested in her, but most of all, my top picks are to be the nine CCS.
Oh, I thought I was going to be able to have that as my, my loan topic. I was excited when you were talking about others, I’m a big CC fan too, Lily. I mean, I obviously don’t need to, to express my love for Michael McCarthy and what he’s done as, as a trainer on his own, um, with city of light and, and some of the others, but the trip, I just think that this horse.
Is you going to sit right outside if she handles the stretch, what better place to find out than the one turn mile elusive quality can, can definitely get a horse that’ll that’ll run further than six and a half. Furlongs thought her last race was impressive. She’d been working well from what I seen and her, her figures are fast one 14 prior, one 15, and it’s that whole California speed horses coming over to the East coast.
And I signed a contract that I have to play horses like that. And I think that CC or Gore Ana will keep my head to head wage. The Craig Barnett collage. All right. We’ll see. We’ll see about that. But, uh, we landed in the same place there so much speed signed on and I just, I love the fact that she’s passed horses.
That’s the other thing that I’ll mention, and then you throw in the great drop. I think it sets up really nicely. Very tough, interesting race. I’m looking forward to it. When was the last time, this is another thing just to pay attention to what was the last time you saw a rider get off of the Kentucky Oaks winner to ride a maiden winner.
And that’s what Jose Ortiz did was there. That is a really, really good point that I was going to host fail on if you hadn’t brought it up. So that times we, we, we don’t give the jockey musical chairs, a lot of credit because we have friends that are agents. We know all the weird inner workings of how those things can happen.
Uh, Chad Brown would forgive Jose Ortiz for staying on the Oaks winner. He would not affect his business with Chad in any way. And the fact that he made that decision says a lot. Yeah. It’s, it’s true. There are politics at play for sure. But I mean, it’s the darn Oaks winner. I think when you factor that all in you, you’ve just got to, it’s just another vote of confidence for how, how much talent Gorana has.
And we all saw, we all saw the performance and it was blown away. And then you throw that in and it’s definitely a vote in that, in that direction as well. I certainly wouldn’t remember you getting beat by no, of course Preet remember sheet. You remember she was working with that horse that ran in the last race when we did.
Uh, the Derby Wars, Thurmont thoroughbred retirement foundation. You the horse economist one over the fence. Know you were out of town. That horse one back on Sunday. I believe the horse’s name is honest. Mischief is in this one. The other one’s name is if I talk slow enough, I’m going to. Get it, it is highest honors.
That horse came back and won. Right. That was a crazy trip that horse had right in the, on the Derby Wars, uh, thoroughbred retirement foundation day. Um, no price, right? Must’ve been, uh, everybody use a short, very short. Alright. You mentioned honest mischief, honest mischief makes his return to the races after that.
Awesome performance in the Keene Lynn maiden in the Woody Stevens. That’s a race. I know a lot of us, uh, circled for artist mischief right after that was done. And I find generally in my life, when I see a maiden winner and then pick out a stakes race for them, there’s no equity in getting off. Let’s put it that way.
And so it’s honest mischief for me in here, though. There are obviously other ways to go. We’ve got some, some pretty big names in here with mind control, complexities returned to the races who I’m also certainly a little bit interested in the other, uh, the other Chad Brown runner, who will probably be bet more than honest mischief though.
It’s, it’s hard to know what that Barnes, sometimes the word will take the one that’s longer on the morning line and make them shorter. So first I’m going to ask you your opinion of the race, and then we’ll, we’ll dive down into some of the interesting questions here. Oh, very fun race and a very fun race that is going to be run as a grade one for the first time, which is exciting.
Um, the Woody Stevens is a grade one, and then the obviously leads into the. To the Allen Jerkins later this summer at Saratoga, I am going to use five horses in this race and in terms of my multis. Um, and one of them is not the two horse, much better. I’m going to start there because I think a lot of people are going to gravitate towards the bathroom thing.
The Mike Smith thing, this horse is going to take a lot of money, silver wig, staying in the closet, staying in the closet. Here’s the thing with this horse. I have like a law, like a law in my brain that I, I will not bet horses that Bob Baffert runs on the turf. He doesn’t want turf horses. He, he, that’s not what his program is.
It’s not how he trains his horses. And if he runs a horse on the turf and they run well, then congratulations. But that they kind of go on the no bet list for me forever. I let much better off the no bet list last time. And the gold fever. Cause I thought he was an absolute layover. I wanted to play him into a, a horse that was running later in that sequence.
And he did run into a sloppy track, but he was awful that day. You take that with the fact that Baffert random on the turf before you take that to the, add that to the fact that it’s Baffert and Smith, they’re going to get over bet he’s taking the blinkers off, which is a, is a change that I don’t like him going into grade ones.
And he ran poorly last time. I’m going to completely toss him, hope to beat. And then I believe there’ll be equity in using the other five horses because I’m fading this one who will go off shorter than five one. In my opinion, let’s hear the five horses rank ’em for a C you know, even if you have to manufacture that a little bit, and you can say if you’re gonna use them equally or use them according to the odds, give us some thought on that.
Okay. I haven’t. So I’m going to do it on the fly. So if I say something, so, um, mind control the nine horse honest, Michif the one complexity, the four hog Creek. Hustley eight land. Discog the five, um, And here are all of the reasons why on it’s mission. Everybody got that. You understand? I don’t need to really talk about that.
One. Complexity is interesting complex. This is a perfect example of Chad Brown and why he is successful. Anyone else would have had a very hard time doing what Chad did with the source. He started the horseback on March 17th and ha you know, when you, when you’re Chad, you just run them. When you want to run them, you don’t ha and obviously, uh, Mr.
Clara or Clara, Mick, Mr. Klarman, Seth Klarman gives him the ability to do this. It’s not like Chad’s punking him or whatever, but Chad is allowed to just ease these horses in when he has these talented runners. Cause he’s Chad Brown. And the fact that this horse was making his three-year-old debut and a grade in a grade one is interesting to me.
I just don’t think Chad would run them. If he wasn’t ready. I think he’ll probably be over bet, but I still think he’s one that you’d have to use. Obviously he won the champagne on this racetrack. He’s one you want to keep involved. Mind control, I think is obvious. He’s just been a very consistent sprinter.
He ran well in the Bayshore. Drawn outside gets Johnny the whole nine. There they call it. Creek hustle is one that that should be a big price. I thought he ran really well in the Pat day mile, uh, you know, 16 to one that day. And a lot of people liked them. I think we had the Matisse brothers on and both liked him going into the race, uh, at 20 to one, this race can sometimes fall apart and we saw it last year.
Um, I can’t remember the new horses name. There’s a six horse. Nick tan role loved him, uh, still having fun or having fun yet. Still having fun, something like that. Still having fun, still having fun. And then the five lane discog, uh, he’s got a lot of speed. He showed a lot of speed time for him. Has him loose on the lead if some of these other horses don’t break or take back or, or, or, or, you know, horses like this get loose all the time.
And I thought his race at Oaklawn was, it was pretty impressive. And, uh, he had a nice figure that day. And I think that he could, he could be one to, uh, to hang on for a piece at a big price. All right, this is one, that’s gotten an awful lot of hype and I’ve contributed to it. You’ve contributed to it. It’s a really good rendition of the met mile.
I still think that one from a couple of years ago with a tonal list and honor code might take the cake a little bit in terms of the best ones I’ve seen, but this one is really, really good deep race. Now it’s time to stop hyping and start picking. Where’s your money going in the grade one met mile J K.
Um, I’ve taught pics. It’d be McKinsey. I’m not crazy about the draw. Um, I think McKinsey is the best older horse and training. I think the McKinsey can win at a mile and a quarter. I think that he can win at seven. So I have to love him, uh, go into one turn mile. I, like I said, I wish he was drawn outside. I would think that my totally from right outside of him will go.
And I think that Mike will be able to kind of do that switch, move, where he comes off and gets outside of the totally. I don’t see thunder, snow really tightening up that gap for me, totally. To be able, uh, for, uh, for McKinsey to not be able to kind of get out and get around and sit. Totally. And, uh, if Mike wants to go to the lead with McKinsey, I, I don’t necessarily feel like that’s going to be a bad thing either.
I think he’s got some stamina, especially going this one turn mile it’s Baffert it’s Mike Smith. I think he’s the most likely winner I would use my totally as well. Um, I think that with Ricardo and, and, and, and what they’ve seen from this source, I think they’ll put him in the race. I don’t think they’ll mess around and invite others in.
I’m hoping that he’ll go on with it. And if he does go on with it, he’ll have a huge chance to wire this feel, um, a huge chance to wire the field. So those are the two that I liked the most McKinsey being the top choice. The other two that I’ll mention, um, as friends, fire who’s obviously run extremely well at Belmont and extremely well going.
Uh, the flat mile. He has three winds at Belmont he’s three for three. So he obviously loves the surface. He loves the sweeping term. He likes a lot about it. Uh, Jason service, I think is, is, is obviously sitting on a big race based on what he’s gone through over the last five weeks. I think that the, the whole bar in the whole operation will be extremely focused.
And I think that friends, they fire could pick up the pieces. If McKinsey doesn’t want to travel that fast early, if McKinsey doesn’t get a great trip, if Mattola and McKinsey, somehow get into a, a little bit of a duel or promises fulfilled as well, being involved, I think forensic fire could pick up the piece.
And then the real long shot that I’ll use is Prince lucky. I know he’s been beating up on nothing when he was down at Gulf stream, but he was running fast figures. He was beating up on nothing in terms of horses, but he was beating up the clock pretty good. And I think he’s one that could come running the outside draw.
With Johnny. And obviously I’m having a good understanding of, of that, uh, of that oval in New York. You didn’t leave much meat on the bone with the horses. I like, I mean, you basically, your top three are my top three and I would rank them McKinsey Forenza fire. And , um, Metolius winning me over, obviously, with, with the, some of the, some of the incredibly impressive stuff.
I got tired of him, uh, ripping off my pants and pinning him to the wall at PS one, if you know what I mean, God, it’s time. It’s time to at least be defensive when using the totally, but. McKinsey for all. I mean, I’m not even gonna bother you. Nailed it. I mean, the McKinsey case was great. I liked your race design with that, and I’m going to keep it pretty simple here and call those my three.
But I don’t think we should move on without hearing your critiques of a couple of horses who are going to be bad and have chances certainly who you did not seem interested in using. And I’m talking of course, about cold front and thunder and promises fulfilled, I think is probably worth a mention. Um, we’ll start on the rail cold front.
I just can’t design the race in which he gets a trip that he’s going to beat. These other horses that I think are better than him. I think McKinsey is better than him. I think my total is better than him. I think friends, I fire is better than him and I would at least debate that Prince lucky could potentially be better than him.
I don’t want to try to come up with a way for him to get off the rail with all of this, all of this going on and still win the race versus those horses. Um, that’s the first thing. And then not to mention Johnny’s off. Uh, and I trust Johnny where he shows up, he shows up on Prince lucky. Um, the other horse, thunder, snow, I think thunder snow’s best races have been at a mile and a quarter.
And boy, this is going to be a very hustled flat mile. And I just see him being able to overcome that. Yeah. I mean, I throw my contrarian thing out there all the time that I do think that the one turn mile actually requires more stamina, but I just feel like it’s a different kind of stamina than the two turn mile and a quarter.
You know, I feel like a lot of the race scenarios that would theoretically set up for thunder, snow are going to set up better for forensic fire. Does that sound about right to you? Right. But they’re going to run away from thunder, snow early and he used to being forward like tactically forward. I just worry easily get stuck in a, in kind of in a no man’s land situation.
Um, I just don’t see how he’s going to be. I don’t see how he’s going to beat McKinsey. I don’t see how he’s going to beat my totally. I don’t see how he’s going to beat forensic fire. I can keep going. There’s there’s either other horses. I mean, you know, I just think it’s going to be too, too sharp for him in terms of the early pace and combined with the dust.
And I’ll amend that and say, I think one of Forenza fire or McKinsey will get the better trip in those situations. Obviously, forensic fire will be in well in front of thunder, snow by everything, logical that we can see, but I just, I respect that forensic fire punch in the lane. I respect the McKinsey punch in the lane too much.
I think you’re right to mention promises fulfilled because there’s gotta be some scenario where, uh, he just goes and tries to bottom them out and maybe they let him go. And maybe something interesting happens or is totally just never going to let that happen. And, and promises, Phil has no chance adjust.
I feel like between the three eights pole in the quarter pole, if promises fulfilled is getting a pace in which he could still carry it on to this in this one turn model, he is going to get run at by me. Totally. Or he’s going to get run out by Cole front. Yeah. Or Prince lucky or Mackenzie or someone between the three eights and the quarter pole.
And then I would imagine that that, that these closers, whether it’s thunder, snow, or friends, a fire, or Pavle one of those three, we’ll run him down between the eighth pole and the wire, because he’s going to have to run harder than I think he wants to run based on the other talented horses that are tactical, he’ll have to deal with.
Like I said, between the three eights and the quarters. Okay. Let’s move on to the grade one. Manhattan, not erase that. I have a whole ton to say about bricks and mortar has really stamped himself. But I was wondering if this isn’t a case where I at least want to take a look at the other Chad Brown runner and that’s Olympic echo.
Uh, based on, uh, how impressive visually that last race was. And just the fact that the horse shows up in this spot. And I mean, again, it’s sometimes hard to guess these Chad Brown runners prices, but with three in here, I don’t know. Maybe you could catch a whiff of value there, unusual jockey trainer combination, et cetera.
How do you see them in that? Let’s see there Manhattan in my nightmares is race. That was a tough last year based on last year. Yeah. Um, yes, bricks and mortar. Most likely winner. Best third force in the U S okay. Move on. I, you know, if you want to sing along and good for you, you got to use them. Here we go.
Aye. Aye. Let’s start with the CHADS. I was against raging bull. I obviously have the raging bull situation because of our friend, Christina. Helmers you’ve never even met her. I know she called me. She called me last. I’m trying to get her to try to get her to show up for the races this weekend. There you go.
Uh, he ran huge, in my opinion, based on the situation he had in the turf classic, I, you know, I didn’t want him down on the inside. Inside’s not ideal. He started off the first part of the race down there and he ran, well, he earned more respect for me. He’s putting the blinkers on, uh, Chad’s not a huge blinker changer type.
So maybe there’s something to be said about how they’re going to ride this horse maybe a little bit more aggressively, or maybe they just need to increase the focus. I think it’s probably important to note that Joelle is off here. Um, and so, uh, you know, I think that that’s probably a jockey thing. You can look into a little bit, um, but raging bull makes a little bit of sense.
I’m against Robert, Bruce. Um, I was looking at SBTV. I noticed he was working with instilled regard and that doesn’t get me going, cause I don’t think instilled in regards to that. Great. Um, so that kind of match up there was, was a little bit, um, concerning. My, and this leads me to my, my alternative, my, my second choice, the horse that I, I think will run really well.
And that’s, Qurbani, he ran good last time, adding the blinkers, he ran the mile and an eighth showed that he could do that. Um, I’m not sure if he’s in a light to the extra distance, but I, I would S possibly is out of a French bread Mayer who, uh, who’s who’s had had some runners run long. So I think that he’s one that could be a very likely upset candidate for bricks and mortar.
And then you mentioned Olympica, I’m not going to add much to that. The last race was impressive. So I’ll leave that at that. And then channel maker, who, who, who obviously likes Belmont he’s two for four at Belmont, um, has run really random. He ran huge and the man of war, um, and, and the way that he was kind of close closer than others to that fast pace.
And he stayed on and ran well with a nice figure, one 24 time for him, us with, uh, um, with, with a good performance in there. So I think he’d probably be my third choice. Until they start beating bricks and mortar. I’m not going to try to beat Brixton. So sum up th help people out here in terms of your betting approach to this race, what are you doing?
Um, it depends on what I’m, when it comes to like multi events, I’m going to try to have, you know, I’m going to try to have bricks and mortar and cure bond is my horses where I can make sure I can trust those combinations a few more times. I want to have those horses more because I think they’re the most likely winners I will be using.
I will have tickets. With the one raging bull with, um, the seven Olympic. Oh. And with the 10 channel maker. But those are the horses that I think are the most likely I’m not interested in the rest of them, but I’m going to build most of my play around the top two. And then, um, you know, use the other ones and you think it’s worth playing.
There might be enough equity just in beating Robert Bruce. I misspoke before there are four. I said three chat rounds. Of course there are four in here as you just a very well laid out. Another reason why I feel like Olympic, I could maybe just sneak away. Maybe the pace will develop in such a way where Olympic go can get the job done for me.
But I don’t disagree about trying to spread. I mean, at least using the three, the same three, Chad Brown’s that, that you, like, you talked about Rosario getting off of a raging bulb. Absolutely logical to go to channel maker. I don’t know why I’m not liking channel maker more, but I don’t know. Is the post a little bit of a concern?
Why am I not feeling this one? As much as I sometimes do. Um, I guess the post is a little bit of a concern, but you know, this one could find himself forwardly placed and when Joelle finds himself up there, he’s pretty dangerous. So that’s a tough case to make on pace figures, I think. Yeah, but that’s, that’s one of those deals we talked about with the belt, with the Belmont, or maybe it was on one of the other shows is yes, the draw is not ideal being on the far outside, but that also kind of gets riders to sometimes force their hand because an indecisive ride from the 10 hole, you end up four wide, you got to do one or the other, you go, or you take back.
This horse has shown some tactical ability. I would think the arrow would be forward rather than backwards, but. You never know. All right, we are moving on to the big one, the grade one, Belmont stakes. We’re going to start off with a question for you not directly related to handicapping this race, but looking back at the Kentucky Derby, lots of chatter, of course, about the possibility that, you know, have war of will not having been fouled and potentially be running for a triple crown here.
What percentage chance would you say if that foul had not occurred to war of will, that he would have won that race? I have a number in mind. I’m curious if you’re aware yours is relative to mine, and if you don’t have a guess at this game, I can give you mine and you can sort of overrun the, what is the percent chance he would have won if he didn’t get filed.
Correct. 15. Oh my God. That’s kind of freaky. That was my exact number. So yeah, and the more I thought about it, I was like, parsing it more and more. I was, cause part of me wanted to make it lower, like lower if, because I was thinking that maximum security was probably best and that even clean that, like it was trying to think of the difference between the trouble that he got caused and the idea of him just running second without that trouble, but maximum security getting to cute anyway, you know what I mean, in this theoretical universe we were dealing with.
So that was the only part that was sort of hard to make the hard, to make the figure. Cause I do think back some security was best, but you know, it’s very obvious that the horse would have run better and I resist, I understand very smart people have tried to quantify it into lengths. I don’t think it was that kind of trouble.
And it just a little academic argument. I think you and I both think the exact, we clearly think the exact same thing about what the chance was, which, you know, 50% is not insignificant. No, I think there was four horses that were going to beat him no matter what. Right. Um, I think if, if maximum security didn’t affect them, the maximum security was going to beat him.
Um, a code of honor was going to beat him. Country house was going to beat him no matter what. Um, Oh no, wait if you’re saying no, Matt, you’re contradicting yourself terribly to say no matter what means he had a 0% chance, 50% is a, I think that’s pretty high who ended up getting a wider trip because of the trouble.
Still could have possibly beat him and I’m not completely giving up on him. Probable that improbable wouldn’t have beat him. If he wasn’t stuck back in there, it could have moved a little bit earlier. I’m not saying he’s gonna win the race, your number and your analysis do not match up my friend, your, your 15% 50% is I think that’s a pretty high percent.
And then you’re saying all these reasons why he was going to get beat. Anyway, it sounds like you should be saying he had a 5% chance to win based on what you’re saying, just for my opinion, but not that mad. It’s just an academic conversation, but you set me up with a JK does matter sales.
Oh, thank you for saving that segment. Who’s going to win the Belmont Jonathan. Uh, I think Tacitus, I think the task, this is going to win if written correctly. Now, if he is not first, second or third in the early part of the race, I do not believe he’ll win. I think he’ll range. He’ll look like he’s got a shot and he’ll get beat.
I need him to be written accordingly. I’ve heard Mark, Cassie. Talk about it a couple of times. A war of will has the tactical speed. I believe like most of us that this is a speed race, and I believe that more of will, will be sent from the outside, which will make it even easier for tasks. And it’s to sit right up off of him and just kind of follow him around there.
And, and, and, and, you know, and hopefully war will wind up in the two path or even clear to look to the rail tasks. Those will sit right off of him. I think Tacitus will win. Um, $2,019. I mean, it sounds a lot like the Belmont a couple of years ago with a, was it Tapper it an Irish war cry and that exact, that exact dynamic that you’re describing where I know many of us thought those were the two best horses, and then they went out and got the two best trips.
I wish I could fight with you. Um, I can’t man, I think they’re the two best horses and I think they’re pretty darn likely to run one, two, or maybe one of them blows up. I’m sticking with Tacitus is my pick. I’m not thrilled with the price. It’s not going to be a huge bet. It’s going to be a bet because it’s the Belmont stakes and.
I’m not overjoyed, but I don’t. It’s another one of these situations where when you peg a horse for a race weeks ago, uh, there’s not much equity getting off. If you don’t have a strong opinion about anything else, I’m not gonna manufacture an opinion that beats the horse. I said it was going to win the race on the podcast two days after the Kentucky Derby it’s Tacitus for me slightly reluctantly.
Can you give the people something interesting in here other than my boring analysis though, for underneath maybe? Well, I can, uh, but let me wrap up one point that you made about Tacitus, and I’ll just be clear about this. If he is written, like he was written in the Derby, he will not win, but I just feel like he’s going to be written differently.
I feel like he’s willing to be put into the race and that is the trip in which I think he win. So I, you know, I’m not trying to like, like pre-read board, but I’m just saying like, if he gets to they’d take him back and try to make one run. He’s not going to win. Um, yeah, but I don’t think anybody really, I don’t think a horseman like bill mod is going to think that that’s the thing to do with Tacitus and the spot.
He probably won’t be as forward as you and I want him to be, but I think he’ll be within striking distance for sure. And I just, I trust, I trust connections to do the right thing here. I agree. You cannot be too far back in this race. I’ll let Benny South street tell you why he likes spinoff. I’m imagining I just retweeted the, uh, trip notes.
I’m imagining that he’s got a big write-up about spinoff. So check those out on in the money podcast.com for his in-depth trip notes about all of these runners. I like Intrepid heart. That would be my third pick. My God. The amount of agreement we have on this card, we’re going to get rich or we’re going to be heading to McDonald’s together.
JK, these tap horses run well, obviously going a mile and a half they’ve run well on this race. He’s a half the commissioner who was barely beat going a mile and a half on this race track in this race. They’re adding blinkers, but I’m okay with that. As many times as people want to tease Todd about his Derby record, his Belmont record is pretty impressive.
Well, I mean, and the guy’s won the race twice, so it’s pretty ridiculous to tease him about his Derby record. Right. I don’t know what the exact stat, I think maybe in the last I heard Andy certainly say it on the draw six times he won this race. Yeah. Maybe that, that could be cool. I guess that’s right. Is that right?
Let’s see. Well, it doesn’t make a difference, but long story short, don’t do this to me and make me want to make these edits. Just, you know, do your other trick where you look at it. There’s this website called Wikipedia. You can just look it up while we talk and then you just say, Oh yes, of course. He’s one of six times.
And then you can rattle off the winners and sound like Nick tomorrow. Well, three times not six. I, I was close three times. One of the tap writ. He won it with palace malice and he also one with rags Richards. So. I’m going to call him. I’m going to call that our second JK tries math fails of the day when three and six are pretty close.
When talking about the winners of the Belmont stakes, he’s one second, a few times to automatic. So that probably also influenced that, uh, that mistake enough that you put the air out there, but then trying to take our man, Andy Serling down with the ship. I don’t know what’s going on with you, JK. Hey, J K drives mouthful.
It’s as simple as that, before we get to our special guests from Woodbine and Monmouth, we do want to at least let you know. I don’t think we have time to go through them all, unfortunately, JK, but let’s let folks know what’s happening with the thoroughbred idea foundation contest this weekend. Yeah, I don’t really want to actually, I don’t really want to go through them.
So I’m trying to win this bag, baby. I already put all my texts in. So explain what it is. I, I don’t think we’ve explained what it is in this show. I think that was in one of the other shows. So start there. Okay. So the thoroughbred idea foundation has put together a contest and the contest is about, I think it’s 19 questions.
Maybe it’s 2020 questions of like a prop bets. Okay. The first one is which horse will have the better finishing position and the Belmont stakes, Tacitus, or war of world. And you have all of those you go through and there’s some pretty fun ones. Final time. What will the first fraction be? Who will win the match, mild, you know, McKinsey or thunders, you know, who will finish better?
There’s a bunch of good ones in there. So, what you do is you jump on. If you go to racing, think tank.com or you can go to their Twitter page, I’m sure they’ll have the link up there. It’s free. You just jump in there. If you win, they will donate a thousand dollars to a racing charity of your choice. If you get second, I believe it’s 500 and then 300 for occurred.
So, um, it’s definitely a fun thing to do. It’s we love these prop bets. We want to see more of them in the game. It’s a great way to get racing, kind of tied in more with sports betting and that kind of ability to just pick one side and, and that leads you down the right path. So we, uh, we want to definitely support this and I’ve already got all my 21 answers.
Sorry. You did. Wow. You’re a good multi-tasker. I’m impressed just to follow up. Of course, if you win and you want to give us some props, make that donation to our friends over at the. Thoroughbred retirement foundation. That would be very, very cool to see I’m going to be taking a crack as well. You mentioned finding it on the TIF Twitter, that’s at racing ideas.
J K and I will also send it around as well. If I’m feeling super motivated, I’ll pop it in the blog post on, in the money podcast.com. We’ll see if I have the mental energy for that after this crazy week of work, but I hope that I do anything else JK before we let you get out of here and continue on with our guests.
Let the guests rain. I don’t even quite know what that means, but I like it. And they are going to be coming up right after this would-be binds racing season is underway and about to get super exciting with the debut of the new turf course. Woodbine has a lot of what players always say. They want big fields, turf racing.
It’s a great place to focus your action. We’re going to be doing a lot of work with Woodbine throughout this summer, focusing on their stakes races here on the podcast, and also helping to hype up the big Woodbine mile day contest, which is a great time to get to Toronto in early fall. Instead of being depressed about it, being the end of Saratoga, come labor day.
Be excited that your trip to Woodbine is almost here. Go to woodbine.com for more information about that and all the great racing opportunities that there are North of the border. That web address again, woodbine.com. And now I’d like to welcome back to the, in the money airwaves, our friend and Woodbine analyst, Dawn loophole, Dawn, how are you doing?
I’m doing very well. Peter. Good to join you. Since the last time we talked, you have achieved the public handicapper equivalent of pitching a perfect game. So I have to ask you about that. You went nine for nine with selections on a recent card. What got into you that day? Actually, I have to say it was, it was 10 for 10.
It was attended. It was a perfect 10. So I know I don’t usually have a few my horn, but it was one of those weird things, Peter, and you know how it, whenever something happens that with the, uh, you know, the new age of things with Twitter and everything right away, people say, Oh yeah, that’s awesome. Um, I remember when so-and-so did it back in 1972, but I didn’t hear any of that.
It’s like, it was one of those things that nobody had an immediate reference. Of it having been done before with the public handicapper. So, um, it was special. I mean, there were no crazy prices. There were a couple of better prices that really dropped down right when they got to the gate. But, uh, yeah, it was, it was one of those weird things.
You just never know if you can’t toot your own horn about that. I don’t know. You can. I mean, it’s really probably statistically speaking well that I shouldn’t overstate what we’ll have to actually do the math on it, but I was always thinking it might be like throwing a couple of perfect games in a row price, not withstanding just an amazing streak.
At what point did you notice what was going on? Um, actually it, well, it was, you know, Jeff brought my, uh, my cohort in crime. Uh, we do the simulcast show together. Of course it would buy in, but he, we always joke around with, we have the first, like one or two winners would say, you’re sweeping. We’ve been doing that for years and it’s never happened.
Of course we just, you know, being silly. And so here it was. And then all of a sudden I had four winners and five winners and, and then he tweeted about it a couple of times, tried to push me. I don’t work. Um, yeah. And then wrote it as the last race. The last race was actually amazing because my horse was beat down the stretch, the horse on the outside past him.
I mean, it’s like one out of 50 come back on the inside. And, and when at that point in this horse actually dug in and did, and. And that was the 10 out of 10. So it was just meant to be, that’s great. Definitely an impressive accomplishment. Now we’re going to make you look to the future and we’re going to talk about this Saturday’s Woodbine Oaks, a race that I’m very curious to get your a, to get your read on.
Looks like a pretty evenly matched field, at least according to the morning line. And we’ve got a big full field in this one. Where is your selection going to be? Yeah. You know what? I haven’t, I I’ve been going back and forth. I don’t act to actually send them my, uh, my selections till later today. So I’m just deciding the last race of entangle Rose.
And I’m a huge entangle Rose fan. Um, she’s just done so many things right from day one, but her last race I have to say was a little disappointing and I’m not sure if it was because she was contesting the lead or what she can just bounce back from that. So that’s like, normally I wouldn’t even have thought about it.
She would have been my slam dunk pick, but after that last race, I’m a little concerned. I’m starting to look at the eight horse Hassell obese to baby who I think is coming into the race in great order. The nine volt script probably goes off as a tap and favorite. And I’m, I’m just not sure I’m a little wishy washy on her as well.
Although she’s extremely nice. And her winning the race would not be a surprise at all. I’m not sure I want to get a board hereto. What’s likely to be a, what advice would you have generally for. Players who aren’t as accustomed with betting the synthetic track. How do you explain to players where that falls and sort of the continuum between dirt and turf?
That’s a good question. It’s, it’s one of those things because we’ve had it for so long now. And then we had, when we had poly track and then we switched to the Topita. So there was a little bit of a, a change there in terms of running sell before the most part, and every track has its video syntheses. It doesn’t matter what it is for the most part.
It will play fair. I think when we do get any kind of noticeable bias, it has caused more by the weather in terms of a very brisk wind, which we do get a lot of at Woodbine. We’re not far from Pearson international airport. So we do get some significant wins. I find that can either increase the chances of speed winning or knock the speed down.
One of the two. Um, so yeah, it’s, it’s fair and horses can come from way back. Um, and horses can go to the front and wind. So I actually liked playing it. I mean, it’s, I’m so used to it now and the ability of most horses to switch back and forth between the Turpin synthetic. Um, it’s probably a little bit easier to switch between dirt and turf.
It’s not a slam dunk, not 100% of horses run the same on both surfaces by any stretch, but a lot of them can be somewhat competent at both. How have you found breeding as a pointer specifically for synthetic success? Is that something you look at closely? Do you know certain lines or certain families are going to act on synthetic or be more likely to than others?
I guess because we’re, we’re here and we’re sort of like an Island and that we’re not having to look at that many horses that are switching surfaces that often, um, that the pedigree becomes almost a moot point. I look more at pedigree when I’m handicapping the turf races, um, as opposed to the synthetic, there have been some real standards over the years and the stats are there if you, uh, if you go through, I mean, um, there’s definitely some, some sire lines that prefer synthetic or just really Excel and synthetic, but because there aren’t that many synthetic tracks anymore, I’m not sure that the data is that meaning meaningful.
Yeah, that’s a fair point. There’s one more specific runner I wanted to ask you about in the Woodbine Oaks and that’s the six art Alina or RT Lena, I’m going to go away. And I thought that comeback race off the 154 day layoff. When you look at the pace figures, despite the poor finish, I thought maybe that race was a little bit better than it looked.
And maybe as one second off a layoff, especially if a speed is holding and she goes forward once again, maybe wanting to take a look at it. Am I giving her too much counter? Is that a, do you like, do you like her at all? I don’t mind her. I think, you know what? I think she’s like one or two races away from really developing into what she’s going to be.
It’s not that she’s super lightly raised cause she has had six starts, but at any kind of distance she’s lately raised and she has a big solid, uh, strong Philly daughter of already Schiller. I think the distance should suit her she’s she was a mom to 60th once and the Ontario Lassie a race that she wanted eight to one, uh, other than that one, uh, one turn mile on turf and then the Tama where she got trounced, but just that one longer race on synthetic makes her somewhat intriguing and that it was a solid buyer figure and she gets them all in an eighth here.
She should like to distance her. Yeah. Just something to take a look at it. I think that’s a good point about maybe one for a little bit later. I think we’re so used to horses down here. The w a lot of the big trainers in New York these days, they’re bringing horses back to the racist, fully formed, or you’re seeing horses who are going to make that big move up.
Second off the layoff. We don’t have as many horse men and women who are bringing horses along to peak in the third race, off the layoff or fourth race off the layoff anymore. Do you think that’s a more common training pattern up North with the, that would bind season works throughout going for such a long time throughout the whole summer and into the fall.
Yeah, it’s such a unique thing. And if you’re a serious better, you can really make your coin focusing on that because it’s, it’s really trainer dependent and some stables are notoriously ready to go right in April, like right at the beginning of the meet. And they, they make a lot of their, uh, their money early and then they’re not as prominent late.
And then of course, vice versa. And those trainers that’s specifically focused for the turf season, which for us starts, you know, a little bit later. And, uh, it’s been a rainy season. So it’s been kind of a little bit back and forth this year, but it’s, it’s definitely a trainer specific thing more than anything else.
And it’s something very important to look at Catherine de Phillips who we’ve seen send winners into Saratoga over the years. Would she be in the category of one who is a little bit more patient and they come along gradually the way you were thinking might happen with this one. Yeah, she, she has, you know, there are a lot of great owners there really are.
And, and to be a patient trainer, you really need to have patient owners. And that’s what it comes back to. And Katherine Day has, uh, she has that Catherine D. Phillips has that in her corner, in that her owners trust her judgment and she’s able to give, uh, the horses time, she’s developing her skills. She becomes better and better every year.
And she’s just an all around super horsewoman already. But I see that her, her skills are just more and more refined and like, yeah, I like her. I, her versus a usually well meant and they’re in the right spot. I think that’s a really good point about the owners and the different opportunities and challenges that various, uh, horse people have to face.
And I think as a better, that is something very wise to pay attention to of not all form cycles are going to be the same. There are those trainers and you need to know who they are, who are going to come out with the horses fully formed. And there are those who are going to continue to have that incremental improvement.
And if you can tell the difference, you’re definitely going to be able to cash a lot more tickets. What information do you use to suss that out or as somebody who’s there every day and watching, do you just sort of internalize it from what you see or is there a source we could maybe send listeners to, to try to learn some of this stuff on their own.
Um, well, yeah, there’s multiple sources in terms of, uh, you know, being able to find that information. I think it was a DRF press, a book a while ago about trainer angles, um, a few years ago. Yeah. That was an amazing book. I mean, I, I loved that book. I inhaled it when it first came out and I think it just points you into different things to look at.
Um, very, very important. And then of course, the stats that you got from DRF, because trainers change, everything changes just because you get in your own mind that a trainer is really good at a certain thing. If you look at the stats once in a while, you might find out that that angle’s no longer working and you’re still playing it and you’re throwing money away.
So I think it’s always important to, to really pay attention. On, uh, you know, it doesn’t, I, yeah. Even at like a day-to-day basis, because things are very cyclical, but at least get a monthly feel of how your specific, uh, trainers that you may like to support are doing, uh, in terms of various angles. All right, Dawn, thank you so much.
We hope to have you visit with us again soon and Godspeed this weekend. Who knows? Maybe you’ll throw another perfect game. Yeah, the pressure’s on. I tell you what if I throw a perfect game on Saturday, you got 11 races and 112 horses or something. I will, there are 116 horses. I will definitely have reached the peak at that point.
Great, great stuff. Thank you so much. We’ll be talking soon and now I’m very happy to welcome back to the, in the money. Airwaves, our friend, Brian Skurka of Monmouth park, Brian, what’s up. Pete. I am doing very well. The weather has been beautiful down here, so, uh, I, uh, nothing but good things. And I saw some things on social media.
It looks like you had a great time at your wedding or not your wedding, but the wedding you were at. So, uh, we’re all excellent. Yes. My brother Mark got married over in Piedmont was an amazing time. I think we’ve talked before about, uh, his connection to the Italian wine world and all the great restaurants, a lot of places, even inside of Monmouth park that were our clients, essentially of my brother and the boutique importer, Michael Skurnik wines that he works for.
So the wine was flowing. We were doing okay over there. Nice. Yeah, everything looked great. I had Pat stitch on earlier in the week. Not sure you had a chance to check that interview out yet, but boy, that was a lot of fun. He’s got a great story. And he was raving about the experience that he had at the pick your prize contest.
How was it from your perspective? Yeah, it, everything went really well from a record number of entries. We had 222, which so now this is the fourth year of pick your prize. We’ve been up every year. Um, you know, it makes sense. We’ve had more entries each year. So handle each year has been up, which obviously is good for us.
We did a couple, uh, internal tweaks this year to make the experience a little better for the players. The, we enhanced the TVs in that room. Um, which were, which were lacking in the past couple of years. So the, the watching of the racism was much better. We put out a better buffet this year. So it was, it was compliments all around the contest itself was exciting and, and, and, and interesting to follow throughout the day, everything really went, went perfect.
Um, You know, we had players from 30 States and Canada. It was, uh, it was a who’s who of, you know, entrance as it normally is anyone, everyone from, you know, the Ray, our Sonos and the Chris little more’s of the world from Canada to Chris army came for the first time from the West coast. And someone like Brent, some jet from California, Judy Wagner came up from Louisiana.
So it was really, it’s really kind of a mini NHC, which is, which is exciting. Not only to see, you know, the comradery, something I think we’ve talked about in the past that camaraderie of players who’ve been playing with and against each other for so long that, you know, those friendships were there. But then once they actually sit down and start competing against each other, I mean, these just some of the best handicappers in the world, it was a, just a great day.
I’m not going to make you read all the winners because there were so many, what are the great things about the contest as we’ve talked about in the past is how many people get to go away with a prize in the pick your prize. But I will ask you to, you know, we know about Pat stitch, the big winner, who else rounded out some of those top prize spots.
Yeah, for sure. Justin, Justin summary, as you said this year, the way that it broke out, we had the top 27, got at least one pick from the prize so that, you know, you know, more than 10% of the people got a prize and, and the way that the, it literally is a pick your prize of the prize board. So the way that the selections shook out, the person who finished 27th, it was Dan Flanagan actually got an NHC seat.
So, um, you know, that obviously there’s no contest anywhere in the country where you could finish 27th place and still qualify for the NHC. So it was just, uh, uh, like I said, a great contest all around, um, Tim Yola. So who came in from Indiana, I believe, um, finished second that he, he got a, an NFCC plus a BCP BC BCC, and a whole bunch of cash.
Uh, Mark strief, who was the, uh, past tour winner prize winner came in fifth. Yeah. Um, You know, Scott Carson actually had two entries in the top 27. He finished 10th and then 20th as well. So he took a actually cached with his first pick and then an NHC with a second pick Roger Satina, who has done unbelievable things in the NHC and is a mom with regular.
He lives probably five minutes from here. He’s in every contest, he was 17. So he got an NHC seat. Um, but it really, you know, we gave out 22 NHC seats in total. So there was a lot of happy people walking away from the prize board. That thing, miss not being there, obviously no way to, to deal this year with being over there.
But I, I look forward to going back and what’s next on the Monmouth tour schedule. I mean, the pick your prize is the big one, but you guys are also known for doing great work at the contest throughout the year. Yeah, we do. Like we’ve talked in the past. We probably do on average one a month. Our next one is June 29th, Saturday.
It’s our first, um, contest that we do in, in, in, um, conjunction with Woodbine. So you have to be at Monmouth. It’s only an on-site mom with contest, but it’s a mom with Woodbine partnership, which we’ve done for, for years and years with them. They’ve been great partners. So it’s mom and Woodbine tracks at the day of the Queen’s plate.
So they have a really good card. Um, w we don’t, we don’t. Frequently do mandatory races as part of our contest, we do it rarely, but on that day, you know, the Queen’s played as a mandatory race at the race that probably most people would play anyway. So it’s not too much of a stretch to ask them to do that, but that’s June 29th, that’s $300 contests for three NHC seats, mamas, Woodbine, and then we go into July.
Um, the week after the Haskell. So the 28th, I want to say it is that Sunday we have a $250 contest for two seats. Our next, what I would call a really big one. We do a, a quote, unquote, super qualifier on Travers day. That’s $500 for, uh, two BCBC seats, uh, and at least six NHC seats and those prizes, um, vary depending on the number of players.
If we get more than. Then expected, we’ll add NHC seats in. So Travis, there’s our next kind of big one. Um, but you know, just kind of prototypical typical contest on June, uh, June 29th and July 28th, I’ll have to sort out my plans. There’s some world in which I might be at the Queen’s plate on June 29th, but that doesn’t necessarily have to materialize.
And if it doesn’t, maybe I’ll come down that day. I’ve been looking to find time to get down to Monmouth. We, you know, I got so excited the last time we talked about all the different entertainment options at and around moment park. So we’re going to have to make something happen. I’ll be with one of our partners that day, whether it’s North of the border or, uh, or down the shore one way or the other, I’ll get to hang out with some other members of the, in the money, uh, partnership family on June 29th.
And obviously if I do make it down, we’ll talk about it on air. So we make sure we get a chance to do, uh, uh, meet up with some listeners. It’s always. Great to get a chance to meet podcast fans out and about in the world. And I know we’ve got a lot of listeners who are regulars at the track. Now, Brian, I want to get to talking about the unbridled Elaine stakes, but before we do that, wanted to give you a chance to, uh, talk about anything else you got going on at Monmouth, either coming up, uh, this weekend or in the near future.
Yeah. I mean, it’s all about the racing. You know, I was taught from the first time I was on this year that, you know, racing was going to be better this year, which is I think categorically, it has been, um, you know, it’s probably not, you know, there’s still room to grow, you know, it’s not at the level of, of an elite meet in 2010, or, you know, some of our years in the past where we had big subsidies from Atlantic city, but it there’s no denying that it’s better than it has been the last few years, which is good.
Um, next week could be an exciting weekend. On father’s day, we run the Pegasus stakes, which is the main prep for the tvg.com Haskell coming up in July. And I guess the, uh, the word is that depending on his next workout, maximum security might run in the Pegasus as his prep for the Haskell. Um, I know he’s definitely, you know, pointing towards the Haskell.
That’s been on his radar for a long time, that the connection that said, but they’ve been trying to figure out how to get there if they want to just train right up to it, or if they wanna run in a preparation beforehand. So I feel like they said. Don’t quote me on it, but he works maybe this weekend or maybe even Monday.
And then he would, you know, they make a decision translation service and the connections would make a decision for Pegasus or not. But fathers, they always, uh, one of the most popular days of the year here, but from the racing side, that would be kind of fun if, uh, maximum security runs in the Pegasus. And then the following weekend, June 22nd is the second of our, our bundled stakes days.
And that’s a good one with the grade one United nations. The grade three is when, uh, the grade three Eaton town I want to say is that day. And then we have another race. So that’s, uh, Uh, our second grade, one of the years coming up in two Saturdays from now. So just, you know, like, like we kind of said from the beginning, if you’re looking for a attractive wager on over the weekend, you know, if you’re in California and your home is, you know, we understand an eight or a Del Mar you’re on the East coast near a, you know, a Niara player, but you need another track, you know, just, just keep your eyes on mamas.
Cause you know, um, the last couple of years we might, our product might not have, have been so great, but this year it’s, it’s coming back in the right direction. You have some good offerings for everybody. Definitely. You, you promise that and you’ve been living up to it, which is great. And I definitely second the idea of Monmouth as a place that’s worth paying attention to.
And now we’re going to pay attention to the unbridled Elaine steaks, which is the Saturday feature goes at four 25 Eastern time. We are looking at five furlongs on the turf. How do you see this one, Brian? Yeah, I see. Probably not. Um, you know, Pat you’re going to get, but it was hard to get past the four gold would for me, a winner of the politely stakes last time, uh, here on May 18th, the stakes race was super impressive.
That day drew the rail to praise, pace. Yeah. Taste pressure throughout. And which is very, very impressive. Cuts back a half for a long to fly for a lunch today, which I think could only help her. And I just think she’s going to be super tough. She, she gets off the rail a little bit, which would should help.
She hopefully doesn’t have to take as much pace pressure on the Saturday as she did last time. And you know that the buyers are, are, are there. You know that the price probably isn’t going to be, but you know, she, she could be a horse that you may be even single in a, a, uh, a multiracial sequence. She, she just looks really good and better than these two, two back at Goldstream, she finished three quarters of a length behind Morticia.
There’s one, at least two or three in a row out of there. And it’s just been a solid mayor in these tear sprints for a long, long time. I kinda just think Goldwood is better than these and hoping, you know, there’s a horse in here shipping in from New York for Christoph Claremont, the two factor of one, hoping maybe people see c’mon and gravitate towards that when you get a little better price on Goldwood, but she just looks too good for me.
Factor of one was the other horse I was going to mention. I thought it was a little bit interesting, potentially as one who might like the Monmouth surface based on the form at Gulf stream over the winter. Do you notice any particular tracks that the horses that run well at Monmouth also run well at, especially when it comes to these turf sprinters?
Is there anything to that idea? Yeah, I think, I think you’re right with Gulf stream. Uh, generally speaking horses from Tampa do very well here. That’s on dirt and turf both, but I think, I think the point you made about Terra sprinting at gold stream, um, translates very well to mom with, especially, you know, once we get into the heart, heart of summer and it’s 90 degrees and it hasn’t rained in a while and the surf just, you know, gets really, really hard and then speed favoring sometimes.
And that’s what happened at Gulf stream in the winter, you know, it’s 80, 85 degrees. It doesn’t rain that much down there in the winter and, and their turf obviously can get quite firm too. So I think when we get those conditions, which we haven’t really had yet. It hasn’t been, you know, a hundred degrees.
It’s been kind of moderate and in the eighties and rain rain off and on throughout some weeks. So we haven’t gotten that just months stretch of where it’s 90 every day and no rains are really baked the turf course. So the turf course has been playing fairly. It was on, I think last time I was on it said it was playing a little more speed favoring earlier in the year.
That basically, of course, as soon as I come on and say it changed that weekend, um, that there, there have been, you know, closers that have done quite well. So I, I don’t think there’s any, you know, as we stand right now, anything that I would say, you know, you want to be at, you can only be on the lead or you can only rally from behind it’s playing fair now.
But I do think keep an eye on it, maybe as we get closer to Haskell. Um, and, and we get into the heart of summer where it’s really hot and no rain, it does play, um, Pretty pretty steep favoring kind of similar to the Gulf stream turf, but maybe B this is another reason to feel good about signaling gold would at this point with the different up until about today cooler and certainly wetter weather that we’ve been having in this part of the world.
So I’m going to go with you and your push there, but I did want to ask about factor of one before we moved on. And with that, I’m going to let you get on with your day, get on with your weekend, but I really appreciate you coming on the show today, Brian, and I hope we’ll be talking again very soon. No, absolutely.
I love being on and anything mama related, just give, give us a ring and, and glad you had a good time at the wedding. So we’ll talk to you guys soon and that’s going to do it for this edition of the, in the money players podcast. I want to thank our guests, starting with Don Lupo and Brian Skurka want to thank Jonathan Kinchin for all his contributions.
And one more. Thank you to him for helping out last week while I was away keeping, uh, keeping the ship, uh, on course, much appreciated quick shout out to our partners. 10 strike racing, the thoroughbred retirement foundation and black type thoroughbreds. They’ve really, uh, made this venture, this podcasting venture get off to a fantastic start that I couldn’t have imagined how well things would be going.
And their support means everything. Most of all. I want to thank all of you, the listeners who make this show so much fun to do. This show has been a production of in the money media, in the money media’s business manager is drew kokanee. I’m Peter Thomas foreign Italian. May you win all your photos.