Stats Deep Dive – Breeders’ Cup Friday – Spencer Luginbuhl

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint



The G3 Futurity from Belmont will be a key race replay as there are 6 runners out of the race pre-entered here 4 are also coming out of the KD Juvenile turf sprint also good to know KD form did very good at Keeneland in the fall meeting.

Amanzi Yimpilo third in the Bolten landing might be stronger than looks on paper as 5 of 6 runners came back to run first or second with 4 of those winning next time out.

I’m not a European expert at all but Campanelle beating 18 In a G2 as Ascot for me makes this one very dangerous.

Royal Approval’s Maiden win might end up being a key race 5-12 with 3 winners.

For Union Gables, the PG Johnson came off the turf and the winner of that came back to win the G2 Alcibiades in a romp good strong dirt form for a 4 horse field.

Invincible Gal may have the strongest form in the race in the maiden win 2 winners right back and 3 ran second for a solid 5-8 ratio and then at a listed stake at Monmouth 5-9 only 1 winner but top 4 of 5 to run back hit the board next time out.



Wesley Ward (Amanzi Yimpilo) 9-17=37% 50%+ ITM 2$+ROI 2Yr Turf sprint off 31-60 day layoff who won last time out

Wesley Ward (Royal Approval) 9-36=25% 2 Yr turf sprint Win Last time out 3-8 when you add Graded stakes this is the same trainer move that he won with Four-Wheel Drive last year


Steve Asmussen (Cowan) (County Final) 8-98=8% 2yr turf sprinters

Wesley Ward (Golden Pal) 0-9=0% 2Yr turf sprint 61-18- Layoff Winner last time out not a big sample size but this one will take a lot of money on Friday

ALL AIDEN OBRIEN RUNNERS 5-126=5% last 5 years last two years 0-48!!! Don’t take with short price

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf



For me I’m a little more impressed with the Euros in this race as 4 of 7 are at least G2 winners one is a G1 winner.

The G2 Bourbon will be a key race replay as 4 run back in here from that race

The G2 Pilgram could become a very good race top 2 run back here and third place runner came back to win listed stake

Gretzky The Great might look like a strong USA runner although that G1 summer is coming back weak with 4 runners so far unable to even hit the board

For me, I like Mutasaabeq class form being G1 placed on dirt the top 3 in the Hopeful look very good and then he won the G2 Bourbon



Mark Casse (Gretzky the Great) 8-34=24% 2 Yr Turf router who won Last time out and when you add a 31-60 day layoff 5-15=33% with a 3$ ROI

Chad Brown (Public sector) 7-22=32% 50%+ ITM and a 2$ROI 2 Yr Turf Router 31-60 day layoff in a graded stakes

Brad Cox (Albarta) 17-53=32% 2 Yr turf routers off 31-60 days 50% ITM and 2$ ROI – Stat gets worse when adding graded stakes in 1-9 but is a small sample size


Mike Maker (Fire at Will) (Catman) 2-17=12% 2 Yr turf routers winning last time out down from usual 16% and I know Maker horses take money in these spots.

Wesley Ward (Outadore) (into the Sunrise) (After Five) (Gypsy King) 5-70=7% 2 Yr Turf routers

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies



G1 Frizzette top 2 end up back in here and could be a key race

G2 Alcibiades is a key race replay to watch as 3 come back in here as well

Princess Noor place horse from debut dropped 10+ Beyer points which for me is a negative and the fact she hasn’t jumped her number up is concerning also but not many horses have run back out of her graded races and nothing has run back to win or run second

Vequist the G2 Spinaway has been perfect so far 4-4 with 2 winners show horse dropped and won an N2L at Keeneland and 4th just missed in a state-bred listed stake 5th dropped into maiden ranks to break maiden

Crazy Beautiful had the strongest maiden win albeit on turf top 5 came back to hit the board and that included two winners



Kenny McPeek (Crazy Beautiful) 13-61=21% 3$ ROI 2 Yr Dirt Router off 31-60 days 3-13=23% when you add graded stakes 3$ROI

Kenny McPeek (Simply Ravishing) 4-12=33% 2 Yr dirt routers 31-60 day layoff with winners last time out

Bob Baffert (Princess Noor) 4-14=29% 50% ITM 2 Yr dirt router 31-60 day layoff when winning last time out

Robert Reid (Vequist) 15% avg last 5 years 20% with 2 yr olds and when you add dirt routers 6- 26=23% with 50% ITM


Tim Hamm (Dayoutoftheoffice) 1-9=11% this horse will take money and although it’s a limited sample size of 2 yr dirt routers winning last time out the only horse to do so is this one

Steve Asmussen (Thoughtfully) 4-25=16% 2 yr dirt router 31-60 day layoff in a Graded stake

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf



Aunt Pearl’s two races so far are very good maiden 2 of 5 so far came back to run second. But in the Jessamine, the top 2 are back in here and the third just came back to win a listed stake at Belmont

Madone has a key race being the Del Mar Juvenile turf 2 back 2 came right back to win and two hit the board for a solid 4-7 ratio

Royal Approval had a solid maiden crew 5 of 12 came back to run first or second they had 3 next out winners including royal approval herself



Brad Cox (Aunt pearl) 10-30=33% 2 yr turf router winner last time out 50% ITM 2$ ROI

Chad Brown (Editor at Large) 7-22=32% 50%ITM 2 $ROI 2 Yr turf route 31-60 days

Christophe Clement (Plum Ali) 6-12=50% 75% ITM 12$$$ ROI 2 yr turf router who won the last start and now comes off a 31-60 day layoff

Wesley Ward (Royal Approval) look above to BC Juvenile turf sprint

Todd Pletcher (Union Gables) 17-65=26% with 2 yr turf runners going sprint to route 3-10 when you add in graded stakes


Mark Casse (Spanish Loveaffair) 5-40=13% 2 Yr turf router graded stake

Simon Callahan (Madone) 7-71=10% 2 yr turf router

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile



Calibrate could be interesting at a price in the maiden breaker 2 horses of 8 came back to win they both won MSW races and improved the Beyer by 10+ points

G1 Breeders Futurity will be a key race replay as multiple horses come out of it

Jackie’s Warrior could be the real deal and his maiden breaker had 2 next out winners the place horse is now also G2 PLC and two more ran second next time out. The top 3 in the G1 Hopeful could all be really good top 2 run back here and the third-place runner won a listed stake over the weekend

King Fury slowly improving Beyers and part of said Breeders Futurity 2 back

Rombauer ran a good second in the G1 American Pharaoh and had two horses drop-in class and break there maidens next time out at the MSW level

Sitting on Go coming out of the G3 Iroquois the place and show horses are both multiple graded stakes-placed


Kenny McPeek (Camp Hope) 4-21=19% 2$ROI 2 yr dirt routers who broke there maiden last time out

Brad Cox (Essential Quality) 9-38=24% 50% ITM 2 yr Dirt route winners last time out he goes to 4-16=25% 2$ ROI when you add the 31-60 day layoff

Steve Asmussen (Jackies Warrior) 12-73=16% he’s usually 20% with 2-year-old dirt routers that win last time out 3-23=13% when you add in graded stakes

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