Hello and welcome to our expanded coverage of Royal Ascot 2025. Anchoring our FREE coverage of every race will be Steven Bonnick, who will offer all of his Day One thoughts in this post.
Before we get to that, let me give you an overview of everything else we have cooking.
We will have podcasts every day, including an Ascot Top 10 with Nick Luck and Vanessa Ryle.
Here’s the (tentative) lineup for the rest of the week, and if I do say so myself, it’s a who’s who in International Form Analysis.
Wednesday: The wise old owl himself, Barry Faulkner
Thursday: Michelle Yu
Friday: Scott Hazelton and Rishi Persad
Saturday: Tom Stanley (and maybe Michelle again)
If that’s not enough, on the In the Money Plus side we’ll have daily “Best Bets” from Rob Dove — one of the top 10 propunters in the UK today – along with digests of the picks from all the free shows. This is in addition to all the normal cool stuff we do over there — extra shows, special coverage of other big events including Del Mar and Saratoga.
Also, make sure you check out this new way to bet on Ascot.
2:30 – Queen Mary Stakes – Group 2 – 5 Furlongs
25 lightly-raced fillies go to post for what should be a fast and furious affair.
KEY CONTENDERS
ZELAINA (#25) dominates the market, as short as 7/4 in places despite the huge field. That reflects how impressive she was on debut, striding clear from unraced but well-bred rivals. Karl Burke has had another excellent season with his juveniles and he won this last year with Leovanni, who won the same Nottingham race that Zelaina did for the same owners. Indeed, they both did it by making all into a headwind, too! Here’s the rub though: Leovanni was 22/1; Zelaina is 2/1. And, while that debut was impressive visually, the form remains untested (fourth well beaten since), the time was only OK and for me she didn’t do anything spectacular on the sectionals. All of which is enough to put me off at the price.
One who looks value is TRUE LOVE (#23). She was pitched into Listed company on debut and ran a brilliant race again more experienced rivals to finish 2nd. The form of that race has worked out well and it’s no surprise that she was odds-on for her next start, but she found making the running into the wind a bit too much, only able to finish a 0.75 length second to her stablemate Gstaad, who bolted up in the Coventry on Tuesday, so for me that was a pretty huge effort, and she was the best horse there in my view. She’s bred to be good and the 10/1 she was when I started writing this is long gone.
Readers will likely know more about LENNILU (#11) than I do. She’s unbeaten in two starts and simply had too much nous and ability for a field of newcomers last time out. I thought she was impressive enough at Gulfstream last time without really blowing me away and the time was slightly slower than the debutant colt in the closing race off similar fractions. American runners clearly have a stellar record in this contest from a handful of runners, however, so I can see why she is second in the betting.
SOCIETY KISS (#19) was impressive in the end on debut over this course and distance having looked in trouble briefly. The time wasn’t much and the form looks pretty moderate, but a nice sub 11 second furlong from 2f-1f out suggests she’s got some ability.
SPICY MARG (#21) is another who ran fast when winning on debut, blasting a 10.8 through the penultimate furlong at Newmarket and storming up the hill. The time was very good and she should be even better off a stronger pace with plenty of stamina on her dam side. The form of that race is untested since and she’s not been seen since, which is a little concerning given the trainer mentioned a race at York following her win.
QUICK NOTES
STAYA (#22) made a pleasing debut but the second has been beaten at 4/7 since.
REVIVAL POWER (#15) is bred to be good and would surely have won by much further if she’d broken on terms on debut. She was friendless in the market that day but whizzed a penultimate furlong in 10.69 and the second and fourth have won since. Do not underestimate.
SECRET HIDEAWAY (#16) is a Listed winner but was clearly flattered by having cover from a headwind last time out.
LOVE OLIVIA (#12) finished behind her that but was keen into the wind and it’d be no surprise if she runs a good race here having won by 7.5 lengths on debut.
ESKIMO PIE (#5) shaped best until the final furlong behind a good one on debut and then got swamped late in a Listed race at Sandown having made the running at a fast pace into the breeze. Still, I liked the way she took a couple of lengths out of the field there and I think this filly has a lot of ability. Could easily hit the board.
CARDIFF BY THE SEA (#3) ran into one on debut but the time was solid and she should prove significantly better off a strong pace with that run behind her.
3:05 – Queen’s Vase – Group 2 – 14 Furlongs
Hard to argue that this is a strong renewal.
KEY CONTENDERS
Aidan O’Brien does ever so well in this contest and has the two market leaders here. SHACKLETON (#10) clearly shows plenty at home having been favourite on his last 4 starts. He maybe got a bit stuck in the mud two back and wasn’t given a hard time when disappointing on his seasonal debut last month, merely plodding along late on. He looks and runs like a stayer but his dam was a fast horse and he has been keen before, so it’s not a given. Really just betting on connections here I feel as on form he has a similar chance to 10 others.
Similar comments apply to SCANDINAVIA (#9). He, too, has been favoured on most of his starts and he finally got off the mark at the fourth time of trying at Navan last time out with a dominant success in a solid time. He looks like a slow striding animal who will enjoy this distance and likely has a lot more to come. But there’s not much juice in the price.
One horse who will definitely stay it CARMERS (#3). This colt represents the up-and-coming Paddy Towmey stable and is unbeaten in two starts, well backed for his most recent win. He is a very likeable sort who looks quite lazy and slowly makes his way through the gears rather than quickening, although he is not slow. He’ll like this extra distance and should be able to get a prominent sit from gate 4, although he would benefit from a strong pace.
DEVIL’S ADVOCATE (#4) was favourite for a Derby trial earlier in the year but made little impact around Epsom’s tight turns. It’s interesting that he then ran in another Derby trial in the Dante, running a much better race, rallying into fourth at the line. It’s worth noting that the form of that race couldn’t really have worked out much worse, with every horse from it subsequently finishing miles back in the Derby. Devil’s Advocate is a keen horse so I’m not sure this trip will be what he wants and his pedigree gives mixed signals, but on pure ratings he would have every chance.
Francis-Henri Graffard had an impressive winner for the Aga Khan Stud at this meeting last year and he may experience more glory here with ASMARANI (#2). This colt is bred to stay all day and shaped really well at Group 3 level last time when closing nicely on a subsequent winner, needing a stronger pace. He will get that here and may improve again for better going, while on breeding he should keep improving for a fair while yet. He looks a huge contender.
QUICK NOTES
SPINNING WHEEL (#11) is game but will need more.
PINHOLE (#7) was 10 lengths behind the Derby winner at Chester last time having travelled well. He was only 9/2 for that race and seemed to need the run, so might do better here.
3:40 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes – Group 2 – 8 Furlongs
This will be run around a bend for a second year.
KEY CONTENDERS
I won’t be able to tell you much new about CINDARELLA’S DREAM (#1) who was runner up in a Breeder’s Cup F&M Turf last November. She was a bit disappointing on her return at Meydan, beaten at odds on, but was only a head behind Choisya, who has since gone on to win the Jenny Wiley at Grade 1 level. Her only run since has come at Newmarket and she was deeply impressive in storming clear of last year’s 1000 Guineas winner Elmaka. This filly has always had the talent and she seems to be maturing mentally now, but she is beholden to a good trip.
FALLEN ANGEL (#4) is a genuine Group 1 filly, who was most impressive when winning the Irish 1000 Guineas last season. Things haven’t really gone her way since, but she shaped nicely enough on her return against colts in the Lockinge and that should have put her spot on for this. She is the possible speed, but may have to avoid a duel with Running Lion. First time cheek-pieces are a question mark.
RUNNING LION (#6) bounced back to form when winning this race last year and finished in front of Fallen Angel in the Prix de l’Opera when 2nd at Group 1 level on her final start of 2024. She was well behind Cinderella’s Dream on her return but presumably needed it and improved last time to finish second in a Listed race at Haydock over a bit further. Expect her to fire her best shot third off a lay-off under conditions that we know she relishes. She also gets first time cheek-pieces.
ONE LOOK (#5) continues to progress and was the only filly to give the mighty Porta Fortuna a race at the Curragh last time. She was against the flow there and that rates a career best. She will need another here, however, and is short enough for me with half a stone at least to find.
ELMALKA (#3) hasn’t really gone on from her 1000 Guineas win and was flattered that day anyway in my view. She was a well held second behind Cinderella’s Dream on her seasonal bow, probably needing it, and didn’t really cut much ice in a Group 1 in France last time, albeit against smart colts. Stall 1 looks a small negative too.
CRIMSON ADVOCATE (#2) was a winner over the minimum trip here in 2023 but has stretched out nicely on her last two starts. She was desperately unlucky not to beat the talented SOPRANO (#7 -reopposes here) off a long break and did well to win from the back at Goodwood last time against the flow, particularly as I’m not sure she really enjoyed the track. I think she might be sitting on a big effort off a strong pace, which she should get here, she’s got a nice draw and gets a decent jockey upgrade – she will be ridden to finish so may be capable of completing out the exotics.
Perhaps the value is START OF DAY (#8), who has two future Group winners behind when just denied by Ombudsman at the end of last season. She’s moved yard and had a nice prep held up off a slow place last time. This test could suit her and she might be sitting on a big effort.
4:20 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes – Group 1 – 10 Furlongs
This looks a very competitive affair and cases can be made for several. The pace looks middle to low.
KEY CONTENDERS
LOS ANGELES (#5) heads the market for O’Brien and Moore. To be honest, I’m quite surprised that this horse has developed into a top class 10 furlong horse as he always seemed more of a stayer to me. That stamina clearly helped when he out finished Anmaat in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time. He had the benefit of the rail there, often an advantage at the Curragh, and had run beforehand, so will need to step forward again to reverse that form. I note that Ballydoyle have entered Continuous, ostensibly to make the pace, but I wonder if that’s a bluff and that horse might just go steady with Los Angeles on his shoulder to get first run? We’ll have to wait until the race to find out, but Los Angeles has leading form claims, for all he makes little appeal to me at 9/4 or so.
ANMAAT (#1) progressed again last season, culminating in victory in the Champion Stakes over this course and distance on ground that had looked like it wasn’t really his optimum. He’s had one run this season when coming from off a less-than-frenetic pace to finish second to Los Angeles. He travelled up like much the best horse in that contest and, given his market weakness that day, I imagine he should step forward nicely for that run. I think he’s the one to beat, although he is somewhat beholden to a good pace scenario.
French raider MAP OF STARS (#6) has the profile of an improver. He’s yet to win at this level but confirmed he was up to it last time out when just failing to catch the very talented Sosie, who had the run of the race. That horse has gone on to win another Group 1 and Map Of Stars looks to have the tools to excel in this type of contest. Has a bit to find on form, however, and market has him about right I feel.
OMBUSDMAN (#7) finished in front of Map Of Stars at the back end of last season and could do so again. This horse has always showed quality and, despite losing his unbeaten record, improved again last time out when runner up in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. He was giving 3lb to a talented and well-ridden rival that day, but I like how he quickened up to challenge and the pair pulled well clear of solid yardsticks in a fast time. That was a lovely prep and should put him spot on for this, and he could get the run of the race, but the draw isn’t ideal.
SEE THE FIRE (#9) is bred to be top class and looked it last time out, storming 12 lengths clear of 113 and 107 rated rivals. That run looks off the scale if taken at face value, but the two she beat have bombed out since. However, the time was very good – comparable to any of these rivals given that she gets 3lbs – and this filly might be the type to be peaking now aged 4.
QUICK NOTES
FACTEUR CHEVAL looks a little short of this level.
5:00- Royal Hunt Cup – Handicap – 8 Furlongs
30 runners in this wide open and competitive handicap.
KEY CONTENDERS
MY CLOUD (#27) heads the market. A course and distance winner two back, he scrambled home at Newbury but ultimately did well to reel in an enterprisingly ridden rival off a slow pace. He is a big, lolloping sort who should relish a strong pace and he’s still at the right end of the handicap running off 95 – he looks sure to be rated 100+ in time.
THE LIFFEY (#14) gets a tongue-tie and cheek-pieces here, which hardly seems like a positive. However, he also gets Ryan Moore up. He’s less exposed than many of these on just his fifth start and shaped with promise in a Listed race last time, albeit a weak one. He’s another who will enjoy a good gallop.
BULLET POINT (#19) is a progressive sort who has won his last 3 starts. He was probably a bit flattered by his track position last time out but still ran out a clear winner. An 8lb rise for that will make things more difficult but I respect his claims.
GREEK ORDER (#25) nearly won the Cambridgeshire off this mark in 2023 and returns to the UK with Michael Bell having had a fairly unsuccessful time in America for Bill Mott. It’s possible he doesn’t really like running around a bend as much as a straight track and maybe the firm US going was also against him. He’s got a bit to prove now but the vibes are good and he’s been backed recently.
FOX LEGACY (#23) looks an improved performer for moving to Andrew Balding and a gelding operation. He ran away with a Newmarket handicap on his first start for the yard and he loves fast ground, while I like the fact that he has some good 9 furlong form to his name as this is going to be a test.
QUICK NOTES
TONY MONATA (#12) ticks a lot of boxes but has run clunkers on both starts here, admittedly around a bend and at big prices.
URBAN LION (#21) was impressive at a lower level on Saturday and might improve again.
5:35 – Kensington Palace Stakes – Handicap – 8 Furlongs
The same again here, although this time it’s the fillies. Look for draw clues from the previous race, although the pace largely seems high here.
KEY CONTENDERS
RANBOWS EDGE (#1) will be popular for the King. She’s lightly-raced and improving, and pulled clear with another from two subsequent winners over this course and distance. She represents the Gosdens, Buick is booked and she’s drawn high too – plenty to like here.
There’s little between her and ARISAIG (#4) on that form, but Arisaig was match fit and probably isn’t open to the same level of improvement. She is well-handicapped, though, and should run well.
AROLLA (#3) has been well supported in recent days but looked a tricky ride to me last time out and the doggy Kingman blood makes me even more suspicious. She wasn’t exactly strong at the finish over an easy 7 furlongs there either, and I’m not sure this stiff mile on fast ground is going to prove her optimum.
ROSE PRICK (#9) has some good course and distance form and has been running well at Listed level without quite being up to winning. I like her dropped back into a handicap off a mark of 94, which looks within her range, and she has also has a nice draw. Tom Marquand is a fine rider and she might go very well here if ridden with a little more restraint.
AMBIENTE AMIGO (#6) might be drawn on the wrong side but this filly ran well off 95 in a good handicap in March and has since won at Listed level, making a mark of 97 look workable. Interestingly, she’s ridden by Elizabeth Gale, a 7lb bug rider. She’s only had 7 rides on the flat – 2 winners from those – but has had 11 over jumps. I really like the angle of apprentice jockeys on the flat who have ridden winners over jumps as they are usually much stronger than your regular claimer – if you think about it, they often have to push 17 hand horses along for 3 miles. This horse might have a lot more to come over a strongly-run mile having been raced over much further generally and is currently any price you like.
QUICK NOTES
SNELLEN (#2) loves fast ground, has form over further and was a winner at this meeting as juvenile. A mark of 100 looks high enough, however.
SKY SAFARI (#18) ran into rejuvenated rival last time but pulled nicely clear and I like the way she made smooth progress to challenge.
6:10 – Windsor Castle Stakes – Listed – 5 Furlongs
Fast and furious to end the day. There is pace all over the track here.
KEY CONTENDERS
ROGUE LEGEND (#17) is a horse I like. He shaped very nicely on debut prior to getting off the mark at the second time of asking. He improved again to win a conditions race emphatically last time out, streaking clear on ground that was probably a little soft for him. He’ll need to improve again but is in good hand to do so.
OLD IS GOLD (#16) shaped nicely on debut behind Military Code (runs first race Tuesday) and got off the mark next time out in the Beverley Bullet, a race Shareholder used to propel himself to Royal Ascot glory last year. He had some nice cover from the wind early in that race and I’m not really sure he achieved that much given the price he is for this.
JAN STEEN (#11) was an impressive winner on debut, albeit it a minor track, and then lead into a headwind when third to First Legion next time out. He ran really well in the circumstances and may outrun big odds here, although he’ll need to do a lot better to win.
ROGUE SUPREMACY (#18) had something of a gift on the lead on debut but he’d been gambled on for that contest and couldn’t have done things much better in beating another supported debutant. He’ll be better with a lead and there should be a bit more to come from him.
TOUGH CRITIC (#21) still looked green when making a winning debut at Keeneland in April in a race that hasn’t really been tested form wise. They finished slowly there and he clearly benefitted from closing in off a fast pace over slightly further. He should get speed to go at again here and his strong-finishing style is a plus at this track, so he could make the frame.
HAVANA HURRICANE (#10) is of interest. An impressive winner on debut, he made a huge move into the race at Epsom last time out and it’s no surprise he got a bit tired in the final furlong. A drop back to a strongly-run 5 furlongs should be right up his street.
QUICK NOTES
GAGA MATE (#8) has been sold since winning on debut. He raced into the wind there and was visually impressive, but the form and figures need improving on.
UTMOST RESPECT (#22) had cover from the wind on debut but clearly should have won and Richard Fahey’s horses can take big steps forward from their debut efforts.
FIRST APPROACH (#7) and KANSAS (#13) both represent Aidan O’Brien but I think they’d both be 50/1 for any other trainer.
