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2025 Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles

Tappan Street – 2025 Kentucky Derby Contender Profile & Analysis

by ericdecoster10 months ago

By Eric DeCoster

Tappan Street is one of the most high upside horses in the Kentucky Derby. Even though he’s only made three career starts, he has shown clear improvement with each and every race, and has already proven to be an adaptable, well mannered, and talented horse. His two good Derby prep performances helped Tappan Street accumulate 110 Derby points, the sixth most of any contender in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

Racing Record and Notable Performances

Tappan Street debuted over 7 furlongs at Gulfstream Park just a few days before the year turned to 2025. In a large field of 12 he emerged to closely stalk the pace early before advancing around the quarter pole to take the lead and win by a solid margin. He then jumped straight into graded stakes company and was sent off as the 8/5 favorite in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes. He was forced further off the pace than connections probably preferred, but took the challenge well to stay in contention throughout the race. He came off the turn with the lead and led through much of the stretch before being run down by Burnham Square, who would go on to win the G1 Blue Grass two starts later Brad Cox opted to pass on the G2 Fountain of Youth S. with Tappan Street and train up to the G1 Florida Derby. That proved the right move as Tappan Street showed marked improvement in that final Derby prep, sitting a comfortable trip from a few lengths off the pace before rallying to victory.

Pedigree and Connections

Sire: Into Mischief
Dam & Damsire: Virginia Key (by Distorted Humor)
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC, CHC, Inc. and Cold Press Racing
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez

Into Mischief hardly needs an introduction. The perennial leading stallion in the United States originally came with the stigma his progeny didn’t have the ability to go the Kentucky Derby distance. That all changed in 2020 when his son, Authentic, won the Kentucky Derby, and then Mandaloun followed that act by being named the 2021 winner. After two years of not being involved in the Derby picture, a grandson of Into Mischief, Mystik Dan (by Goldencents), got the line back in the winners’ circle. Into Mischief shows up as the sire or grandsire of four projected starters in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

The most enticing aspect of this pedigree is the pairing of Into Mischief with Virginia Key, who is by Distorted Humor. That sire-damsire cross has proved to be the most potent combination in American breeding. It has produced 11 total stakes winners, led by the likes of Life is Good, Practical Joke, and another 2025 Kentucky Derby contender, Citizen Bull. The crossing is probably part of the reason this colt sold for $1 million as a yearling.

Brad Cox is another individual who needs little introduction. He has established himself as the most dominant trainer in the country in recent years, winning two Eclipse Awards as Outstanding Trainer, 11 Breeders’ Cup races, and ranking in the top five nationally in earnings every year since 2018. His history in Triple Crown races, especially the Kentucky Derby, reflects just how difficult it is to succeed in these big events. He has run multiple horses in every Kentucky Derby since 2021 but is yet to cross the wire first. Among those 11 total runners he has sent out two post time favorites – Essential Quality in 2021 and Angel of Empire in 2023 – but both came home under the wire in 4th. Cox has technically won the Derby when Mandaloun was elevated to first via disqualification in 2021, but Cox admittedly gets little validation having won a Kentucky Derby in that manner.

Luis Saez is one of the top jockeys in America year in, year out. He has ranked in the top 10 nationally in either wins or earnings in every year expect one since 2012. However, his record in the country’s biggest races leaves something to be desired and his Derby resume is extremely checkered. He became the first and only jockey to ever be disqualified from a Kentucky Derby win when severe interference around the turn cost him the victory on Maximum Security in 2019. He has ridden in 11 Kentucky Derbies in total and only one of those mounts “finished” better than 7th, that being the favored Essential Quality when 3rd via DQ in 2021. Outside of the Derby he has the most total mounts of any jockey to only have one Breeders’ Cup win, a 1-for-68 record from over a decade of rides. Saez does have two wins in the Belmont Stakes, having taken it with Dornoch last year and Essential Quality in 2021.

Final Prep Analysis

Final Prep Race: G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park (April 5th)
Finish Position: 1st out of 10
Final Time: 1:49.27
Beyer Speed Figure: 94

Tappan Street received the perfect trip in the G1 Florida Derby. In thanks to a post position draw towards the outside, Luis Saez was able to settle in a clear path throughout the race, well within range of a pace that set up excellently for a horse with his running style. He inched closer to the lead around the far turn and eventually took over with a furlong left, drawing away and holding safe from an oncoming Sovereignty. It was about as professional of an effort that a 3-year-old in only their third career start could have.

Strengths and Concerns

Strengths: Even though he’s only had a few races, Tappan Street has passed a lot of tests in his career. He adapted well to trouble in his second race to only lose to a future Grade 1 winner. He has won from as close as a length from the lead to sitting mid-pack when winning the Florida Derby. Tappan Street has already proven his class on two occasions as well by hanging with the likes of Burnham Square and Sovereignty, who will both be well backed in this year’s Derby.
Concerns: While he has moved forward with every start, Tappan Street still has to get faster on the figure scales. His 94 Beyer Speed Figure from the Florida Derby is well below the triple digit figures put forth by Journalism and Rodriguez, as well as the 99 from Sandman in the Arkansas Derby. While this colt has proven his ability to handle a lot in a short amount of time, it is still fair to be weary of a horse with only three starts leading into the Kentucky Derby. Only four times in history has a horse with that experience level won this race. It has become more frequent recently with three of those winners coming since 2008, but of the 22 total horses with only three starts to run in the Derby, 18 of them finished 6th or worse.

Expert Opinions and Odds

Tappan Street is best labelled as one of the “top alternatives” to the favorites in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. His resume and hype is strong, but maybe not to the levels of a Journalism, Sovereignty, or even Luxor Cafe. I would expect him to fall into the 12 to 15-1 range on Derby day, which would make him the fourth or fifth choice in the wagering. A few international outlets have him marked down to high single digits, which feels like a bit of an underlay. Any double digit price would make a wager on Tappan Street worthwhile.

Conclusion

Tappan Street is a very talented horse who, based on pure ability, can hang with any horse of his generation. His jockey-trainer combination, one of the strongest in horse racing right now, creates a compelling storyline due to their frustrating pasts in the Kentucky Derby. His resume stacks up strongly despite having only three career starts. Can he joins the ranks of inexperienced Derby winners Big Brown, Justify, and Mage, or will he fall into the forgotten realm of Kingsbarns, Rock Your World, Materiality?

Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles

Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Burnham Square – Luxor Cafe – Tappan Street – Citizen Bull – Tiztastic – Coal Battle – Rodriguez – American Promise – Final Gambit – Grande – East Avenue – Publisher – Chunk of Gold – Owen Almighty – Flying Mohawk