The Shipping Forecast – Gulfstream & Santa Anita 4/3/23

Santa Anita – Race 9

Rose Barton, formerly trained by the promising Kevin Philippart de Foy, makes her US debut in this 6.5 furlong Allowance race. This daughter of Caravaggio gets Dettori up for this first run since early October, an obvious plus, and she had a good, progressive profile back in the UK. A winner of one of her eight starts, she scored over a mile in a low-level handicap at Windsor before a solid run in a better affair at Haydock next time. She was disappointing on her most recent run, off a break, and her two runs off a lay-offs have been around 7lb below her best form. Her win, and best runs, have come over a mile, but she is not short of pace, and she should prove effective in a well-run sprint. She was rated 20lbs behind her former stablemate Pearl Glory in the UK, and that horse is likely to be amongst the outsiders in this contest, so it’s likely that Rose Barton is also going to be one of the bigger-priced runners. This looks a tough sport first-up, and she is probably best watched.

Gulfstream Park – Race 5

The progressive Belouni makers her debut for Chad Brown here, having shown good form in four starts in France. All of those runs were on soft ground and she is by Fast Company, a proven sire on deep ground in Europe. That would be a concern, but her most recent effort in Listed company reads pretty well here and this filly has been working along nicely since early January, and should be ready to run. Brown has a fine record off the lay-off and she is well drawn in 3. She faces some talented rivals here but appears to fit nicely at the level and 6/1 or so would represent a fair bet if she handles the ground.

Gulfstream Park – Race 9

Three ex-European distaffers face off here, with Timeform rating them accordingly.

  • Anna Karenine – 90
  • Revalita – 83
  • Papilio – 94

Revalita is the lowest-rated of the trio, but hasn’t done a lot wrong in three runs, winning twice at provincial tracks either side of a fifth at Deauville. That defeat came in Listed company and she appeared to be a little outclassed there, but it was only her second run and her inexperienced jockey couldn’t claim off her. She is not proven on very fast ground, but should be fit.

Anna Karenine is also an ex-French, and a winner of two of her five starts. She was placed in minor Listed company on her penultimate start and ran a solid race last time out in a Group 2 when not appearing to stay 7 furlongs. She goes longer again today and that would have to be a concern as she has shown good speed in her career to date, with her wins coming over five and six furlongs. Her pedigree is a bit of a mix, but her two winning siblings were both sprinters, including one by a pretty stoutly-bred sire. Expect Brown to find the right spots for her in time, but she is worth watching here.

Papilio was the best of the three in Europe and is a nice filly. She was highly regarded by former connections and made a winning debut in her native Ireland, prior to finding things happening too quickly in a Group 2 sprint next time. She got back to winning ways over a mile and was only just touched off by a talented colt in a Listed race next time out. She probably found the company against her next time out in the Group 1 Moyglare, but it’s possible that the soft ground was another excuse there too, although she ran a nice enough race to finish sixth despite encountering some traffic. She’s been doing things nicely in the mornings and gets Luis Saez aboard here. She meets a nice field here but doesn’t face anything too scary and should be hitting the board at least if primed to run.

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