Race 3: #3 Faster (5-1)
#9 Ransomware (2-1) is the horse to beat after a convincing win against lesser animals just 10 days ago. He established an honest pace, ran his pace rivals into the ground, and crushed by six lengths while earning a figure that would make him extremely difficult to beat if he can repeat it. I’m just not sold he’s going to be able to do it again given the different circumstances for today’s competition. That was easily his best race since the summer, but it was also the first time he’s ever been able to dictate the pace. That’s unlikely to happen here with an abundance of speed entered to his inside and I want him to prove he’s still capable of winning from off the pace.
#3 Faster (5-1) is also entered after a win against lesser just a couple weeks ago, albeit around one turn. He didn’t earn as strong of a number as the favorite, but I liked the way he did it visually. He was able to establish good position sitting just a couple of lengths off the pace, made a nice run up the rail, and held off the charge of a deep closer. His best two races by far have come when he gets that trip, positioned midpack behind the speed, and getting first run on the deep closers. And that’s the trip he’s most likely to get in this race, with several horses wanting to be on the lead, and a couple plodders entering that will likely leave themselves too much to do. I also like that the top two ran away from the field in the final stages and Faster galloped out strongly which suggests he should appreciate stretching back out to two turns. The jockey upgrade to Corrales can’t hurt, and I think he’s worth a stab as the horse that’s most likely to trip out.
Race 9: #1 Publicity (4-1) (Play of the day)
I’m against the morning line favorite #8 Sully (3-1) in this race. He’s a horse that has had his chances and is clearly at his best when he’s able to establish the lead. I have a hard time seeing him clearing this group as there’s an abundance of pace entered in this spot, including a stablemate that is arguably faster. His most recent performance was just okay, he set an honest pace that day, but had things his own way and still couldn’t hold off the charge of Rocky Joy, a career maiden that came into that race with seven minor awards in eight career starts.
I love #1 Publicity (4-1) in this spot and think he ran extremely well last time despite some subtle trouble. He actually broke well and was forwardly placed in the opening quarter until the horse in front of him started taking back, causing Publicity to lightly tap on the brakes multiple times down the backside and lose position. By the time they hit the far turn, he was nearly last and buried on the rail. Yet, Moncada was able to swing him to the outside and he made a sustained run to get up for second over a couple of today’s key rivals that had better journeys. Timeform actually has that race with blue-coded fractions, making the trouble he encountered more significant, and his late charge even more impressive. He easily earned a career best speed figure for that effort, and I’m not worried about that being a flukey number since that was his first try over this surface and he clearly handled it. It’s encouraging that the excellent bug-boy Moncada stays put, and he should get a good set-up with how much speed is entered(I’m confident he can also sit close if the speed doesn’t develop/scratches). I’m anticipating he’ll move forward off that effort with a cleaner trip and I think he’ll prove very difficult to fend off in the final stages.
Race 10: #7 Moving to Kentucky (6-1) and/or #10 Kistler (8-1)
We close out the night with another race where I’m against the favorites, starting with #2 Cloudy Holiday (7/2). This gelding is clearly not as good on the synthetic as he is on the grass (based on Beyer AND Timeform) and yet he took a ton of money last time and couldn’t hit the board. There’s yet another class drop for today’s race, but there are opponents in here who could give him some trouble based purely on speed figures, and he’s not supposed to get a favorable pace scenario. #6 Very Satisfactory (3-1) is another that is worth taking a stand against as he’s unproven over this surface and is likely to be overbet for the Brad Cox barn. He also lacks any tactical speed in a race where that would be beneficial, and it’s not like his dirt/turf figures make him a standout.
I prefer a couple of horses coming out of the same race on January 16th, a day that I thought had a pretty significant rail bias with several bigger priced horses riding that rail to big performances. I thought #10 Kistler (8-1) ran fine last time out considering he was legitimately 4-wide the entire race. He did take advantage of a pace that fell apart a bit, but he still closed against the rail bias to get up for fourth. He just feels like a horse that is really going to appreciate more ground, if you look at all his past performances, he has that even running style that so often translates to success at further distances. I also anticipate him being more forwardly placed in this race, given the stretch-out and the lack of speed signed on.
The other horse I want to give a chance to is #7 Moving to Kentucky (6-1). He’s more obvious as it appears he might be alone on the lead in the race. They tried the cutback with him last time and it just didn’t work out as he had to do the dirty work of pressing a fast pace and he was always between rivals and just never seemed comfortable. He’s better than that and we already know he’s capable of handling a route of ground. I’d expect a similar effort to the one he had two back going a mile when he split the field after setting the pace against a much faster group. The number he earned in that race would make him tough to catch in the nightcap.
