Just arrived in Toronto and have taken up residence at my favo(u)rite of the city’s many excellent breweries, Bellwood’s, and I’m eager to share my thoughts on this LOADED Saturday card of racing.
Let’s start with the early Pick Five, which guarantees $200,000 in the pool. Reminder to myself and others: it’s Canada, so the Pick Five starts in race 2.
Race 2:
I always value speed a little extra on these Inner Turf races at WO and maybe #4 ROCK HARD ROSE can be the best speed? She’s a little exposed with the seven runs but she hasn’t run on this course and this is the weakest field she’s faced in a while.
Speaking of seemingly exposed fillies, #8 TOP OF D MOUNTAIN has run 10 times without finding the winner’s circle but they’ve all been against better. The other thing is why hasn’t she tried turf yet? She’s bred both sides for it. These are two pretty big reasons she could move up.
I’ll row in with these two.
Race 3
#6 UPHILL DANCE has competitive numbers and could get the best trip as there’s plenty of pace to set up his late run. The booking of John Velazquez is eye-catching as well.
#7 SOCIETY’S THUNDER is obvious. He’s got the best figs, is the most consistent, and he has shown the ability to pass horses, which he might need here. Barn has been unlucky at the meet, but that can change in a hurry.
Bs
#2 Western Whirl is a backup I’ll use as a possible speed of the speed.
#9 Niagara Skyline includable on his body of work, especially if rating tactics are employed today.
Race 4
#4 ONTARIO is as obvious as they come, but hard to fully trust off the long break. Still, she’s got the numbers and looks to be working well for her return to the races.
#5 WILL REIGN is cut from similar cloth as the top one – had some good form last year and hasn’t been out this year. There is similar improvement for this first-out three-year-old.
I also need one with recency and or speed and #6 MISS DEMANDING clicks both boxes. We won’t be picking up much equity in this leg using all three of these but sometimes you just say the heck with it and try to survive and advance.
Race 5
First stake on the card: the Catch a Glimpse for two-year-old fillies (local prep for the G1 Natalma next month).
#1 DYNA did everything but win first out, going down just a nose to a rival who had a better trip. She should improve significantly for having had that run and I like the inside draw for her and the presence of Prat.
#6 SWEET FUSION won the common race and looks the main danger. She had a good trip in there but she looked professional. It’s interesting that she was 9-1 there and there are multiple ways you can read that. Maybe she’s not supposed to be that much better than a runner like Piper’s Gift her, but maybe not much was expected from her from a fitness point of view and she ran well anyway. If that’s the case she could bury these. I’ll take the latter view.
B
#2 Piper’s Gift was bet hard for that debut, had a tough trip, and ran on well enough. She’s includable off that run.
Race 6
#6 TANDHONEYWITHANE has been keeping pretty good company for this level and appeared to improve for the new barn last time. I’m thinking she get a good trip from just off the pace, having uplined (run faster pace figs throughout) last time.
We don’t have the X-Ray back on #9 MIRAMICHI so we’re still waiting to see if she got that dog in her – her 1 for 19 career mark with seven seconds suggests otherwise. Having said that, she’s a likely winner on numbers and she’s been so close in the last two where she appeared to be trying and getting unlucky.
Let’s have a look at a possible caveman ticket, with the thought being I’ll go back and press the As.
4-8 w 2-6-7-9 w 4-5-6 w 1-2-6 w 6-9
That’s $144 for a buck but you can do for as little as $0.20, making it $28.80.
Godspeed if you’re playing!
