Let’s tackle the Mandatory Payout Pick Six next, which picks up where the early pick five leaves off. You can read my analysis of that wager here. You can also read Ray Cotolo’s excellent analysis of the very fun $5 Kings and Queens Pick Three (races 7-9-10) here.
Race 7:
We kick on with Grade 1 action in the E.P. Taylor Stakes.
I’m very tempted to just go ahead and plant a flag with #4 SHE FEELS PRETTY. I love the equity you pick up singling in the first leg of a Pick Six, even with an odds’ on shot.
B
Ray and JK (on the show) both made a case for the Appelby runner, #3 Diamond Rain, and she’s a logical alternative for sure but I’m still not sure the Appelby dominance of 21-23 is still in effect. In the end, I may blink and use both but I’ll be 3x She Feels Pretty to 1x Diamond Rain.
R8
#5 PLAYMEATUNE is a clear top one for me, having run a career best in this race last year and he appears to be coming here in good form based on the work the other day.
#1 VICTORY ACHIEVED gets back to sprinting off the layoff and that looks the right move. This is also a sharp looking worktab for the return
#6 SIMCOE is in form and might well be the best speed. Another I definitely need on tickets. Leave it to the Long Island native to play the old 5-1-6 in the G3 Bid Venture.
R9
The race that gives the day its name. You can read my full writeup here.
In summary:
As:
8-10
Bs:
3-12-13
R10
#1 PIPER’S FACTOR gets a great draw to take advantage of his early speed and I could see a great trip either bossing things on the front end or letting War Strategy go forward and stalking that rival.
#3 CRUDEN BAY, a multiple winner of the Grade 2 Connaught Cup, flattened out in this race last year but that run preceded a layoff so I don’t want to judge him off that. He’s gotten the distance easy enough on synth earlier in his career and could be primed for a big run.
R11
#9 ARGOS made a nice visual impression on debut for Riley Mott, and the Beyer looks low, especially given how well Zeus’s Echo came back to run.
#1 TWO OUT HERO makes all the sense in the world if he takes to turf, and on his blood he should.
B
I’ll use #3 LONGHI as well. The fig for the first race is laughably low but I think it’s TOO low given how much the ones he faced who’ve run back have improved by. Plus, it was a “way he did it thing,” being stymied for run and finishing up well, if greenly. This is kind of an “in Motion we trust play,” but those work out from time to time.
If you have the budget and are narrow enough elsewhere, the three Casse runners all have claims, but I don’t think they are where the value will be.
R12
I am with the Casse barn here, specifically #3 WAR OF DESTINY, who I think will do better going 7 furlongs on synth at this point in his career.
#2 HUMAN DESIRE turns back in distance in his second start for the ultra-successful Marty Drexler, looks a prime win contender
#1 LONNIE’S GAMBLE won the last time he went this trip and that was against the grain of a speed track. Not sure he’ll have a great setup but I’d like to keep him on side where I can.
B
#4 DADDY HAS DIAMONDS should be seen to better effect adding blinkers and cutting back in distance. An X-Factor I’ll use as a backup.
Tickets!
I’ll share a caveman ticket and then I’ll come back and press some top picks. I’ll probably also play a ticket that spreads wide in the two-year-old race using the three Casse runners with my As for a minimum.
Main ticket:
*Indicates press horses
3-4* w 1-5-6 w 3-8*-10*-12-13 w 1-3 w 1*-3-9* w 1-2-3-4
So for $1 that’s $720 but just $144 for $0.20
