Doing something a bit different for this writeup as I’ll be out on a river all week without access to internet. Instead of morning lines, I’ll use my own value lines here. At time of writing, the morning lines haven’t come out yet.
Race 9: MOC 6.5f (T)
Simple approach to this contest.
- Most Logical: Conzip (3-1 value line & bet 1.0 unit) Straight forward approach here: best figures, cut back, equipment change, drop in class, high cruising speed so won’t be left too much to do late.
- Next Best: Nice Company (12-1 value line) Last out was clearly not ready to run as something went wrong. The debut running had a hell of a trip. Emma-Jayne gets aboard and should be able to make one run at the 6.5f distance. Speed isn’t terribly deadly at this distance (which this horse doesn’t have much of) so might be able to show an improvement and finish well.
Race 10: Woodstock Stakes 6f (AW)
Way too much speed in here and will setup perfectly for the top choice.
- Most Logical: Derskii (4-1 value line & bet 1.0 unit) Talented horse that continues to grind away against the pace flow. With the inside speeds, the horse should roll, tripping wide exiting the turn.
- Trip Note: 10/18 stalked in 3rd pack, patient ride going widest around far turn, made move to gain ground and close late
- Next Best: Jaxon Traveler (6/5 value line) Best speed in the race and might get away well without pressure. Asmussen is 7 for 10 ITM so probably should use underneath in all verticals and horizontals. He doesn’t ship here often but when he does, he does it with purpose.
Race 11: Mdn 6f (Aw)
Many of the horses with races under their belt look lackluster, so we’ll side with the breeding.
- Most Likely: #4 Lake Shore Drive (4-1 value line & bet 0.5 unit) Kantharos is 15% with first time starters and 13% on synth. Should be a square price.
- Next Best: #7 Torontotoro (5-1 value line) Took a bit of time, but this four year old makes his first start. Flashy gate work two back points to a ready to fire effort. Emma-Jayne aboard.
- Consideration: #8 Enchant Me (5-1 value line) Has run against every good three year old at Woodbine last year.. Maybe the lighter class is all this one needs.
Race 12: OC $40k 6.5 (AW)
Ouch, Canadian Pharoah purchased for $310k got his lone win in a maiden claiming event for $40k and no one dropped the tag. Anyways, this race is fun so let’s dive in.
- Best Value: Perfect Crime (4-1 feels like value but guessing ML around 6-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Races two and three back were winning runs but things didn’t setup well. Last out finally got the cut back and notched the win although against the pace flow. Today should have a bit of speed to close into and may jump in performance going from 2 year old to 3 year old seasons. Trainer is a staggering $3.59 ROI off these long layoffs. Has an ability to show speed (see 8/30 running with tending the red fractions per TimeForm US).
- Trip Note: 11/1 Stalked 2w, made massive wind up move traveling 5w 2T against pace flow only to come up short. huge effort.
- Trip Note: 10/11 Pushed wide 1T, made middle move to front end, 2w 2T, grinded home, showed good grit. Best horse on the day
- Most Logical: Red River Rebel (3-1 value line but guessing will go off 2-1) Got a nice trip last out resulting in that huge Beyer leap. Will have the tactical speed, layoff a length or two from the leader, and finish well.
- Consideration: Cruden Bay (10-1 feels like value line here) Won handily on debut stalking and rolling well late. Not sure if there’s enough pace up front but doesn’t need to take a huge step forward to get the best of this bunch