Race 7: Selene Stakes (G3) 8.5f (AW)
Many of these are making their 2nd start as a three year old. Big jumps in Beyers can happen here, so don’t be surprised with chaos.
- A/Best Value: #5 Sweet Souper Sweet (10-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Last out the jockey rode the horse very confidently, never panicked, showed the horse the stick at the top of the stretch, and never really asked more beyond that. Pretty much a NF effort the entire way around. Yet the horse ran a great 4th beaten only by a few lengths. My thinking here is that was a prep to stretch out and gauge the ability of this runner. Two back something was a miss and I’m scratching a line through that race (unlike most of the Woodbine horses that are coming off the November layoff when Woodbine last ran). I’m assuming something wasn’t right and the horse needed the break. Trombetta is 4 for 7 cashing place bets so far at Woodbine.
- A/Most Logical: #7 Munnyfor Ro (8-1) Faced tougher in last two races, trying to close into the pace. Today looks to have a guaranteed pace to run into. However, not my favorite angle to play marginally better horses trying to close.
Race 8: Mdn 7.5f (T, two turns)
- A/Most Logical: #7 Giant Waters (4-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Continues to improve coming 2nd off the layoff. Two and three back was trying against the two year old stakes company at Woodbine running respectably. Four back in the maiden claiming ranks absolutely blew the turn and still had a huge rally (albeit with the pace flow). Hernandez gets the mount again and should be able to put this one right off the pace.
- A/Next Best: #2 Malibu Edge (2-1) Continued to run into tough classes in the maiden ranks. Today gets a bit easier of a group to run against. The first turn on the inner comes up very fast so the inside draw and this one’s early pace should workout nicely to be forward and save ground as they enter the first turn.
Race 9: Fury Stakes 7f (AW)
- A/Most Logical: #4 Curlin’s Catch (5/2 – but expect closer to evens… in the event this one stays at 2-1 or higher this becomes the top play at two unit, otherwise move to second choise) I have fancied this horse since running here last year. The PP’s show a horrendous running line against the #3 Il Malocchio on 10/31/2020, however, this one was wide trying to make a poorly timed move. I will excuse that effort as too much adversity to overcome. After the fresher, things started to click (see trip notes below). Then she faced graded stakes company and those waters were waaayyy too deep while facing grade 1 horses.
- Trip Note 2/27/2021 strange race with loose leader (sort of) who won at 50-1
- Trip Note 2/6/2021 pulled away well and sort of NF at 1/16.
- Trip Note 1/3/2021 ridden early to establish position, turned away foes, second off should provide better sustained bid.
- Trip Note 10/31/2020 3-4w trying to make a move late, too wide and far back.
- B/Best Value: #7 Astrological (6-1 & bet 1.0 unit) I like that Casse places this maiden into stakes territory. Showed some good grit last out being pinned down on the rail then quickened a bit with the pack to show a NF effort final 1/16th. Today gets a change of surface and one furlong less. There’s a 59 workout on May 12th, so upside might be still left.
Race 10: Mdn 8.5f (AW)
Great betting race with the two favorites doing something they are untested on. Signals to me this is a great spot to stretch for prices.
- A/Top Choice: #4 Vivid Vixen (15-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Was very well ignored in the betting on debut. And we’ll continue to get that value as the horse was destroyed at the start leaving practically no chance. Trip note below indicates there’s still upside, especially considering the multiple 59 works on this one’s tab. The other thing that has me excited to bet this one is the last running kept on terms if not better than the rest of the pack. If can save a bit of ground and figure out the lead change switch, this one will be in the mix at the 1/8th pole.
- Trip Note: 6/19/2021 destroyed at the start, traveled wide the entire trip, couldn’t switch leads, NF almost at the 1/8 pole, huge upgrade next out.
- A/Most Logical: #1 Confident (evens) Attfield tries this one on the turf for the first time but gets a very soft field to run against. Should have enough pace to stay in touch with the front pack and class to blow by late. The price will be very short to back considering the first time over all weather surface.
Race 11: Clm $25k n2L 8f (T, outer one turn)
At first glance, this looks to be a spread race with many chances.
- A/Best Value: #5 Winyah Bay (15-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Second off the long layoff with a few sharp works on the tab. Last out was in way too deep of waters in a merri-go-round pace. Would expect another step forward and can get the best of this bunch.
- A/Next Best: #7 Lower for Longer (4-1) Strange race last out as looked all but the winner then wrapped up. Today gets second off and maybe she needed that race to get ready. Jockey stays aboard.
- A/Consideration: #8 Choose Hope (15-1) Second off and could be near the lead. Just needs to find back form and could get the win.
- A/Consideration: #11 Eleanor Powell (20-1) Bit of a trip in the last race facing winners for first time. Gets the freshener and comes back as a four year old.
- Trip Note: 11/21/2020 traveled around first turn, made early move from the back pack along BS, move around FT, ran on very well.
- Trip Note 9/13/2020 made early wind up move, trying to chase down loose leader, bumped hard off turn, finished on terms. Give few extra pts.
- Beatable Favorite: #10 War Empress (5/2) Trip note a few back and the figures on paper are not great.
- Trip Note: 1/20/2021 stalking trip, rail ride, downgrade.
