Woodbine 7/11/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 4: Mdn 8.5f (AW)

Pretty interesting race with some many coming out of the 6/20 race at WO.

  • Most Logical: #11 Tape to Tape (9/2 & bet 0.5 unit) Did all the dirty work setting and pressing the pace. Ran on well enough down the lane. Has already proven can run two turns well enough.
  • Next Best: #7 Take a Chance (4-1) Had a bit of a bad trip in the last race. Had to sit on hold traveling in the 3 path while tiring horses clogged up clear running. Eventual first and second horses had clear sailing, albeit wide. Once finally free to start running was a dozen jumps behind the winners.

Race 7: Marine Stakes (G3) 8.5f (AW)

Plenty of speed in this event with many who like to be up or near the lead. With many question marks, we’ll be reaching for a price.

  • Best Value: #4 Candy Overload (10-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Each and every start continues to improve and screams to me wanting to go two turns. Has a great ability to rate and then quicken in the lane. With the inside draw should be able to grab the rail in 3-4L back from the front running pack and make a late wide bid.
  • Most Logical: #2 Frosted Over (4-1) Another runner with ever start improving. Reason this one is second pick as has yet to face winners. There’s a good chance the figure earned last out was due to circumstances. The counter argument to that would be the workout tab indicates there’s more left in the tank for improvement.

Race 8: Queenston $125k 7f (AW)

Best of the speed play and a bomb

  • Most Logical: #6 Gretsky The Great (2-1 & 1.0 unit) Tended very hot paces in last two stakes races. Looks like the speed ball will relish in the cutback. Pretty simple: best class, speed, and sharp last out work to prep for this race.
  • Longshot: #5 Del Griffith (20-1) Very odd race on debut: jockey dropped this one back, made a wide move, and in the stretch drive was not even on the screen, only to find best strides late a pass in the final 1/16th  to get up for the win. Now, none of those horses in that event are competitive with this bunch. However, Tim Hamm is a great trainer and I find it suspect that he would let this promising horse jump into such deep waters and get destroyed when he has plenty of conditions in the book left at his disposal. Hamm is 3 for 8 in stakes races at Woodbine with an overall record of 42 wins out of 203 starts (21%). With a bit of speed signed on, this one might be the best of closers and you’ll be sure to get paid. Absolute consideration to juice up vertical plays in 3rd and 4th spot.

Race 9: Clm $10k 7.5f (T, two turns)

Favorites look tough to beat here

  • Most Logical: #2 Fire for Effect (3-1 & bet 0.5 unit) With the first turn coming up so quick on the inner, this one’s speed should save ground and be on the lead early. The cozy trip seems like the most logical thing here to get the win in this lower level bunch.
  • Next Best: #6 Told it All (5/2) Should be able to stalk off the hip wide and close well. Washed off the rain last out and the races two and three back were misfires. If can run anything to previous races in the summer of last year should get the win. Not enthusiastic with the sharp drop from stakes to lower claiming level, though.

Race 10: OC 7f (AW)

Zero speed signed on

  • Most Logical: #4 Malibu Secret (3-1 & bet 1.5 units) Last out faced graded stakes company. Today gets a much easier bunch and should be the lone speed. Zero speed drawn to the inside so expect a rail ride on the lead.
  • Next Best: #2 Solidify (8-1) Continues to close into slow paces against some decent horses. Gets second off the layoff today and an inside draw (much better than the 12 post last out). Would put this one as the top selection if more pace was signed on.

Race 11: MOC $40k 5.5f (AW)

Looking like a bit of a spread race beyond my top choice. Will likely use only my top two in horizontals.

  • Most Logical: #2 Verrazano Narrows (10-1 & bet 2.0 unit) Really digging this horse. Last out had a bad start (which in sprints is the most critical… remember the old PTF or JK analogy about blowing the start at a marathon vs. a 100m dash. In the dash if you blow the start there’s no chance of winning). Two back went too long around two turns, pressing wide the pace. Three back, on debut, was smashed out of the gates. Today projects to have a nice inside draw and hopes to get a bit of luck out of the gate.s
  • Next Best: #7 Tiz Romantic (8-1) Had a bit of trip traveling wide last out and gets second off, which has proven to bump the numbers quite well.

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