Woodbine 7/17/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 4: Clm $10k 6.5f (AW)

Might be a smidge of value only if this horse stays at the right price. Value line around 5-1

  • Most Logical: #9 Anita Grigio (6-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Horrible trip last time with bad race luck being stuck on the rail. Not a ton of speed so should stalk wide and make one run late. Figures fit with this bunch and at 6-1 or greater, that feels like right value to me.

Race 6: OC $40k 6f (T)

Rain is projected but doesn’t bother us one bit for our top choice. If washes off, we still stand with our top choice.

  • A/Most Logical: #3 Souper Hot (9/2 & bet 2.0 units with value line around 5/2) Nice jockey upgrade, has tactical speed, and gets the second off the bench effort. Don’t leave off verticals as this one has hit the board 13 out of 21 starts. Trip last out has me backing this one big time.
    • Trip Note: 6/27/21 amazing run staying in the 4path with a four horse duel, stayed on well as the pace fell apart around this horse, did the dirty work, winning race
  • C/Next Best: #7 Four Aces High (10-1) Great race, should step forward, mostly for underneath plays.
    • Trip Note: 6/27/21 ran eye balls out stalking the pace, making first move wide and traveling 4+wide entire way around
  • C/Consideration: #8 Red Fiction (7/2) Lonnnngggg layoff type getting second start as four year old after missing 3 y/o campaign, could be anything.

Race 8: OC $62k 6.5f (T)

A bit fuzzy of a race except for our top choice. Beyond that this one gets tough to call

  • A/Best Value: #1 Fly So Pretty (6-1 & 1.0 unit) Overall figures fit with this bunch and had a pretty bad trip last out traveling wide. Today should get a much better ride being drawn inside.
    • Trip Note 6/26/21 stalked 4L back, tried making widest move of all, struggled to change leads early down the lane, once did ran very well down the lane, huge upgrade
  • B/Most Logical: #6 Hell N Wild (4-1) If can break a bit more clean, figures to have the better trip than main rival #10 Jeannie’s Beepbeep
  • B/Longshot: #5 Nantuck Red (20-1) Could be anything with the trainer change, the freshener, and respectable back class.
  • B/Consideration: #8 Roman d’Oro (3-1) Will drop back and stalk, having the first go of it, figures fit

Race 9: Mdn $123k 7f (AW)

  • A/Top Choice: #3 Lake Shore Drive (9/2 & bet 3.0 units) terrible break leaning on outside horse, jockey had to pull up and settle horse. steadied as began move into FT, big move outside against pace flow once widest. green-ness down lane preventing a better placing. Better next out.  Trn 8% 1st, 16% 2nd time

Race 10: Alw 10f (T outer)

  • Top Choice: #2 Holyfield (5/2 & bet 0.5 unit) Deserving favorite has the tactical speed and that prior race proved to be a strong race with next outs earning solid figs.
  • Next Best: #4 Peace of Ekati (7/2) Can do a bit of both of it: on the lead or stalk. Last out was wide and made the move the broke apart the race with Holyfield and Prideofdistinction. A bit of a hanger in past but this group looks a notch below others this one has faced.

Race 11: MOC $40k 6.5f (AW)

Crazy top pick but watch the replay. This bunch is light and anything could happen. I’m going to play a rare three horse exacta box for 0.25 unit across all three top choices (total = 1.5 units)1`

  • Best Value: #2 One Punch Charlie (30-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Should not be such a high price, will likely be bet down around 15’s. On debut in November was a ridden workout and finished just behind the other speeds while wrapped up. Has been blazing morning drills at almost a minute flat, so there’s plenty of upside left for the four year old. Inside post will help.
  • Next Best: #12 Souper River (12-1) Terrible last out trip with a couple subtle moves, gave up at top of stretch and kept on terms
  • Consideration: #10 Greyshott (12-1) Missed the break and just jogged around the track. On debut had a good run and a foundation to build on. The 59 is a plus, too.

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