Woodbine 7/18/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 7: Connaught Stakes Grade 2, 7f (T)

Looks to be way too much speed signed on

  • Best Value #7 Holiday Stone (10-1 & bet 1.0 unit) The race sets up perfectly for this old timer who will drop back and try to run them down late from the back of the pack. Weaver has this one in shape and looks to be coming in here at peak performance. Don’t let those OC conditions fool you, Belmont turf races are a competitive bunch. Moving up to the seven furlongs will only help.
  • Most Logical: #1 Avie’s Flatter (3-1) Has enough speed to let the outside horses go while tucking along the rail to save ground and energy. Figures on turf are a bit light but I think this horse has wanted the shorter one turn configuration, proof being in the last event.
  • Bad Favorite: #8 Chuck Willis (2-1) Love this horse but this spot feels too deep. Will have to face some serious pressure for the first time here in the states and navigate the outside post draw. The price is too short and don’t believe will have enough left to keep grinding after having to deal with those inside speed balls.

Race 8: Clm $10k  8f (T inner)

Two speeds drawn to the inside will make for an interesting pace setup. Beyond our top choice, it becomes a spread race.

  • Best Value: #7 Coleyville (12-1 & bet 0.5) Coming out of the allowance race that was a pretty stiff test after the long break. Today gets the second off, a sharp 59 work buried in the workout tap, and should have the pace setup this one needs to come running late.
    • Trip note: 7/3/21 stalked 4-6L back wide exiting 1T, made move exiting 1T to get into contention (good move on Jockey’s part as the front pack was moving slow and getting an easy lead), into FT pack began to quicken couldn’t keep on terms (but legit horses). Good running

Race 9: OC 62k 6.5f (T outer)

Tough, tough, tough race but will be a great betting opportunity

  • Best Value: #2 Silent Jimmie (15-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Has the figures that fit this bunch. Has not had a solid pace to run into since August of last year where this one got a win. TimeForm US had that day coded as red. Back class is pretty significant with the likes of Pink Lloyd and Avie’s Flatter (running in the stakes earlier on the weekend). Will have a ground saving trip and might just have enough speed in the race to close into a pace.
  • Most Logical: #12 Wedgewood (5-1) Will be stalking wide and stay out of trouble. Demonstrated in past likes to get the second off the bench, so will bank on that.
  • Consideration: #11 Entry to Heaven (10-1) Took some time off early last year and came back firing. Something that is usually a negative (leading with blue fractions) is actually a positive here considering the final time earned. Beyers don’t account for pace in a race, so this one was able to earn a great figure even though the middle part of the race was dead slow. I think this would could run an even higher figure. This one could be anything and won’t be leaving off any ticket.
    • Trip Note: 6/27 wide and ran a good race closing late into what looked to be against the pace flow.
  • Underneath Use: #9 Honey Won’t (20-1) Has enough speed to stay in touch with the field as they turn for home and stay out of trip trouble. Could easily see this horse clunking up for 3rd or 4th to juice up tris or exactas. Don’t think this one has a chance of winning.

Race 10: MOC 8.5f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #6 Strike a Beat (3-1 & bet 2.0 units) Tremendous winning effort last out. If can be a bit closer and save ground in the early parts of this race, clear winner.
    • Trip Note: 6/25 back of pack early going 2-3w, made move into FT 5w to catch up with 9/5 fav who had easy go it on the front end, began accelerating at top of stretch and kept on terms with the winner.
  • Best Value: #8 Summer Load (10-1) Ran a great one last out trying to overcome some adversity. I think will like the two turns considering how well this one navigated the turn last out and the ability to keep grinding deep in the stretch.
  • Consideration: #7 Final Eclipse (6-1) I think the connections would like that last race back, trying to rate the horse who clearly wanted nothing to do with that. They might just let this one roll and see what happens.

Race 11:OC $15k 6f (T outer)

  • Most Logical: #3 Sparkle Sammy (5/2 & bet 0.5 unit) Trainer does very well with these long layoff types (31% wins out of 13 runners). No real pace pressure and could see this one getting a bit loose. Husbands very familiar with this horse and stays aboard today.
  • Best Value: #5 Factoring (4-1) Should get first run at the #3 and #4 who project to be out on the lead early. I would watch the tote board for this one. If the horse is bet down big time, this is a “they know” type of horse.

Race 12: MOC $40k 6.5f (AW)

  • Cold Single: #8 Ride the Wind (3-1 & bet 2.0 units, value to be around 9/5, anything lower no bet) First two races as three year old beat this bunch. Trip note in the last race. Should project even higher after the long break. Something must have gone amiss that caused the almost year layoff, but the work tap looks solid and this one ran well on debut as it was.
    • Trip Note: 8/1/20 blocked entire rail drive and finally got free a bit with a NF effort
  • Best Value: #3 Classy Gizmo (10-1) Chased the hot pace that got the loose leader ahead of this one the win. Today could step forward and get a clean trip being drawn inside.

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