Race 3: Plate Trial 9f (AW)
- Most Logical: #4 Avoman (8/5 & bet 2.0 units) Short field for this year’s Plate Trial but I’m still seeing value in this race. If Avoman can be anything above even money, that feels like a great opportunity. This horse should get a perfect stalking trip and tuck into the rail directly behind #1 HC Holiday as they enter the first turn. Last out off the long break made the move to break apart the race and stalked 3w the entire way around. If Gallardo (welcome to Woodbine!) rides this one 3w in a four horse field, he won’t be off to a good foot with his new clientele. He is going to do everything in his power to ride efficient and prove his worth to the connections at Woodbine on this big stage.
Race 7: Vigil Stakes 6f (AW)
- Best Value: #4 Green Light Go (15-1 & bet 1.0 units at anything above 10-1) There’s minimal pace signed on, this one gets the cut back, can sit off or use speed. Has the back class, second off, figures fit.
- Most Logical: #2 Souper Stonehenge (1-1) Clear speed in the race and is in peak form. I’ll be playing this one on top in exactas with #4 Green Light Go underneath.
Race 8: Woodbine Oaks $500k 9f (AW)
What a tremendous edition of this race!
- Most Logical: #1 Curlin’s Catch (3-1 & bet 2.0 units) Has really been unlucky the last few starts: last out had a wide trip with traffic problems, two back ran into every grade one filly south of the boarder, three back caught in a weird loose leader race where winner was 50-1. Today looks to get a bit more speed, tuck into the rail, save some ground and close late. Value line stands right at 3-1 and I think we’ll get that.
- Best Value: #6 Emmeline (12-1) Continues to improve in each and every start. Last out we’re going to find value because this horse wasn’t “caught on the wire”. Boulanger wrapped this horse up not thinking Miss Marie at 30-1 would be swooping late to close like a freight train. Today will be on the front end and Emma-Jayne won’t be wrapping up early on this one, that’s for sure.
- Bad Favorite: #4 Lorena (2-1) Had the easiest of trips last out with the main competitions (our top choice) having all the traffic troubles. Tries stretching out for the first time and gets Lasix added. Too many variables for me to back at a short price.
Race 9: Royal North Stakes (G2) 6f (T, outer)
- Most Logical: #4 Change Control (9/5 & bet 2.0 units) Towers over this field, right? Class, figures, travels well, all the goods. Speed signed on in the tricky 6f outer so she’ll have plenty of pace to run into late. Value feels like evens.
- Underneath: #5 Fairywren (20-1) Ran into trouble last out and I don’t know if ew have seen the full version of this runner yet as there’s plenty of bad trips scattered in those PPs.
- Trip Note: 6/26 cozy stalking trip was not cozy at all as the jockey had a hell of a time find the seam at the top of the stretch, against the pace flow as closers from way out of it finished 1 & 2
- Trip Note: 9/26 not only was steadied entire way down stretch but at the break lost all position being squeezed and steadying.
Race 10: OC $62k 5f (T, inner)
- Most Logical: #1 Celebratory (6-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Is going to have the easiest of trips, out on the front end without a ton of pace pressure (#3 Alacritous might go but won’t menace for long).
- Long Shot Consideration: #8 Alicia’s Kid (20-1) Is rounding perfectly into form and has run a competitive number over the 5f inner last year. Not crazy to think this one could get a piece of it.
Race 11: MOC 7f outer
- Best Value: #14 Verrazano Narrows (15-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Another drop in class for this horse that has a bit of promise still. Last few trips we had excuses except for the last running. Blinkers go on and a jockey change might help this one.
- Next Best: #5 Sun Forester (10-1) On debut ran a good one down the lane, albeit a bit flattered by the ground saving trip. Today gets blinkers and the second go, hoping to be in the race early. The horse has talent, just needs to create the urgency in the first quarter mile.
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