Woodbine 7/31/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 8: Victoria Stakes $125k 5.5f (AW)

  • A/Most Logical: #6 One Timer (9/5 & no win bet, too short as odds will drift below 4/5 likely) No explanation needed, ran an amazing figure last out and that form has been proven by having two next out winners earning 60’s Beyers.
  • B/Next Best: #4 Twenty Four Mamba (3-1 ) There’s so much speed and uncertainty with this bunch that I feel like this one will get the perfect pace setup. Popped on turf last out trying it for the first time and is expected to continue to improve.

Race 9: Alw 7f (T, outer)

  • A/Most Logical: #2 Grey Seal (7/2 & bet 2.0 units) There looks to be almost no pace in this race. This horse projects to be on the lead early and the inside draw should ensure a ground saving trip. Second off the layoff for a trainer who has half her runners (n=52) hitting the board.
  • B/Next Best: #8 Say Hey (20-1) Could really be anything as last outing looked like a mere workout: spot the field a half dozen lengths, hand ride down the lane. Don’t read to much into the pp line that says “traffic” as the jockey had no interest in getting this one near the eventual winners while they ran down the lane.
  • Bad favorite: #7 Scattered Clouds (5/2) Has to face winners for the first time. All other horses in the last event ran into trouble while this one got the perfect trip. Wouldn’t bet at anything less than 10-1.

Race 10: Mdn 9f (AW)

  • A/Most Logical: #3 Blast In Snow (6-1 & bet 2.0 units above 4-1) This horse ran an amazing debut race except for the few bumps in deep stretch. Today should get a nice cozy stalking trip and clearly has enough quicken around the turns to make a move into the race. Enough outside speed should setup perfect.
  • A/Next Best: #7 Truffle King  (2-1) Finally gets some speed signed on. But hard to back failing the last few outings without any glaring excuses. Just too short to back but would not blame anyone for including on horiztonals, especially if you have a price like Say Hey in the race previous.

Race 11: MOC 7f (T outer)

  • A/Best Value: #9 I’m not Perfect (20-1) Last out had zero chance chasing the speeds as wide as this one did. Two back got stuck in a merri-go-round pace while being the lone runner to make up significant ground. Still has a chance to get the job done re.
  • A/Most Logical: #1 Kerick’s Beauty (8-1) Ran everything but a winning race last out, having to travel wide, check after a horse unseated the rider around the turn and carried the speed to close into the pace.
  • A/Next Best: #2 Rum Raisin (6-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Gets back to the right surface and a better post draw for this speedster. Will be in the mix as they turn for home.
  • A/Consideration: #14 Marais (15-1) Last out had a bit of a trip, two back too fast, three back off the break was a bit short. Today gets a jockey change and with race luck could win.

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