Race 3: Georgian Bay Stakes 5f (T)
- Spot Play: #1 Meet the Soprano (7/2) Inside draw, good speed, too long last out, etc. Should be an easy win for this first time grass go’er for Casse.
Race 5: MOC $40k 5f (T)
- Spot Play: #3 No More Fences (10-1) Did not want to run over the all-weather last out. The first start in 2021 was a bit more competitive and on the right surface. This bunch looks light, and I believe those two 2021 races had bad trips/rides. With race luck can get the job done at a nice price above 10-1.
Race 8: Alw 6f (AW)
- Most Logical: #1 Pilot Episode (3-1) Last out was a bit too far and too fast to fade in the final stages of the race. Today gets a half panel off, inside draw, and no too much speed drawn outside. Four year still can have upside left.
- Best Value: #6 Owen’s Tour Guide (10-1) Last effort was tremendously inefficient while the jockey brought this one in tight to stalk the speed and got pushed around. There’s still hope this one could be anything if the jockey simply sends and gets aggressive. There’s clearly talent with the work tab and the sharp bullet. The group this one faced last out is tougher than this bunch, so we’re still holding out hope this one can wake up and get another win.
- Underneath Use: #5 Piquet (15-1) Ran an honest effort last out and is rounding into form nicely based on the work tab and the come back performance. Today would expect this one gets a bit of the board at a big price.
Race 9: Lake Huron $80k 5f (T)
Ice cold single here.
- Most Logical: #2 Forest Survivor (8/5) Best of the speed here in an event where many of the other outside logical contenders haven’t proven an affinity for this short of a distance. Sure, in the Aug 30th Simcoe Stakes Dragon’s Brew and All Canadian bested this one. However, that was at the tricky 6.5f distance and resulted in a bit of a layoff. Signals to me the horse went too long and got strained, requiring a bit of a layoff. I don’t think anyone can catch this one down the lane at the 5f configuration.
Race 10: Clm $25k 6f (AW)
- A/Best Value: #6 Reign by Rein (8-1) I like that this horse continues to improve in each start, albeit in the maiden ranks. We’ll forgive the light class as these n2L conditions don’t find the best runners as this is the next condition outside of maiden claimers. This one has the speed and the 6f distance on the all-weather should fit nicely.
- A/Most Logical: #4 Richies Noble Girl (7/2) Should have first run at this speeds in this race. Drops out of the open optional claimers into this N2L spot and should be the easiest of tests.
Race 11: Clm $7.5k (T, inner two turns)
Tough race to pick apart
- A/Most Logical: #5 Mizzona (9/2) Has been trying to close into neutral or slow paces in last few starts. Today looks to have a bit more pace signed on and the added two turn configuration over the inner can prove tiring for front runners. The nice inside draw should afford this runner a ground saving trip. Stein jumps aboard to hopefully wake up this runner.
- A/Consideration: #10 Crumlin Time (6-1) Is in great form and will be in the thick of it as they turn for home. Big time jockey upgrade helps in these two turn inner races.
- B/Best Value: #7 Canadian Magic (12-1) Comes up from the lowest claiming level to face this bunch. But this one has done the best running over turf so we’ll stay focused on those smatterings of races. Off the long layoff two back ran a bit too fast and was short. Last summer ran some competitive figures on the inner with this bunch. Workout tabs shows there’s talent and might be a late bloomer for this 5 year mare.
- B/Next Best: #11 Post to Post (3-1) With the wide draw and the quick run-up to the first turn, this runner will have to overcome quite a bit of ground loss early on. I think has the best tactical speed to be in the race early sitting right off the hip of the leaders as they go down the backstretch. Won’t be leaving off tickets but don’t get excited at the short price.
