Race 7: #6 Collect Dattt (10-1)
The late pick 5 starts with a competitive group of allowance fillies and mares going 6 furlongs on the tapeta. There appears to be a plethora of early speed so I want to look for a filly that does her best running from off the pace. The filly I settled on is #6 Collect Dattt (10-1) and hopefully we get every bit of this morning line. Even though she is coming off a victory, her form prior to that looks dirtied up. She has three dreadful two-turn races on her form line, but if those performances can be ignored and you focus on her sprint races, she becomes a logical contender. The only sprint she failed to hit the board in this year was when she was dueling on the lead, yet she always does her best work from off the pace. She’s won her last two sprint races with 71 Beyers, which fit pretty nicely against the likes of these, and there’s no reason this three year old can’t continue to improve. Expect her to get a good trip from midpack, get first run on the closers, and have every chance to get the job done.
Race 8: #4 English Jubilee (20-1)
#3 My Boy Prince is going to be an extremely short price based on his first three starts and a favorable pace scenario. But I didn’t love the regression he showed in his latest start and I wonder if the distance got to him. He stretches out even further for today’s race and perhaps he didn’t adore the grass either, so I have enough doubt that I’m willing to take a small stab against him. His stablemate #4 English Jubilee interests me at what should be a gigantic number. He was against the race flow in both of his races, especially the debut on the grass when he had plenty of trouble and still closed into an unfavorable pace scenario. The synthetic start wasn’t as good, but he’s back on turf and he’s bred to love it and the added distance. Despite the poor performance, he’s wheeled back in just a week so he must be no worse for the wear. I also like that he’s nearly paired up Beyer tops, suggesting big improvement could be incoming for start number three.
Race 9: #8 Millie Girl (8-1)
Awesome betting race as twelve fillies and mares will line up for the Grade 3 Ontario Matron. #3 Mouffy is strictly the one to beat in this race as she has yet to lose on turf/synthetic and is coming off a strong victory in a stakes race at Ellis Park. She’s interesting if you get 4-1, but I get the feeling she’ll take plenty of money in this spot. I strongly considered #12 Tamarama based on her synthetic form in Europe. She wasn’t beaten much by some of the better fillies in New York, and she’s supposed to improve in her second start for the Sisterson barn. But this is a brutal post and she’s going to need plenty of help up front. I like #8 Millie Girl (8-1) stretching back out to two turns. She’s run well in every start over this surface and her pedigree suggests the distance won’t be an issue. She’s still pretty lightly raced for a five year old and continues to steadily improve her speed figures with racing. Note she finished third behind Fev Rover and Moira two back and those rivals would be odds on in this race. She should get a nice stalking trip on the stretch-out and offers value at this 8-1 price.
Race 10: #8 Vantarsi (20-1)
There are two horses in this spot that will likely take all the money, but I want to try and beat them both. #6 Loyalty’s victory two back earned her a massive speed figure, nearly 10 points higher than any of her races, and wasn’t able to replicate that in her latest start. There’s a chance that performance could be an outlier and this will be the toughest field she’s faced yet. #7 Our Flash Drive is probably the one to beat as her synthetic form at Woodbine is sensational. She’s tried her hand in New York and Kentucky the last couple starts to no avail. She backs here to try and right the ship, but her latest effort was a pretty big step back and I’m concerned she is headed in the wrong direction. She’s a must-use in the pick 5, but I’ll try to beat her on the win end. For it being a big field of stakes sprinters, there’s not a very clear pace scenario. #8 Vantarsi (20-1) could be the speed of the speed at a huge price. Her race last October leaps off the page as she earned a big figure that day going wire-to-wire. In fact her only two victories came the only two times she was able to make the lead. Her latest effort in the Grade 3 Seaway was pretty solid as she dueled with a huge longshot, shook off that rival (pace rival was well-beaten), and hung in tough til deep stretch before she tired. She cuts back a full furlong for today’s race and should be primed for a big effort in her third start off the bench. If she can make it to the front end, she could get brave and post a huge upset.
Race 11: #13 Onandonandon (8-1)
This is my strongest play of the day as #13 Onandonandon (8-1) is a horse I’ve chased all meet with mixed results. Her victory three back was a solid effort, but she’s been unable to replicate that in her last two starts. Two back she didn’t have a good trip from an inside post, but I thought she showed courage to stay on for a small piece of it. Then last time she had a horrific trip when she lost all positioning at the break, then checked repeatedly throughout the race, yet still got up for third. She has more tactical speed then she showed last time and I love the switch to an outside post where she shouldn’t encounter any trouble. She also gets a positive jockey switch to Vives, and the five pound weight break should only help her chances. One last chance for this filly against this soft group, she’s a great bet at 8-1, and I’d be willing to go as low as 4-1.
