Race 2: #2 Bequia (5/2)
I was shocked when I saw that #2 Bequia (5/2) isn’t even favored on the morning line because she looks more like a 3/5 shot to me. She’s the only horse in the field of seven that has any kind of early speed so there’s a good chance she’ll have things all her own way up front. And her late pace figures are about the same as the rest of the field too, with the exception of #4 Worldly Beauty (2-1). Bequia is dropping to her lowest level to date and she’s run a Beyer speed figure of at least 62 in her last three starts-nobody else has topped 62 even once this year. The only real concern I have is that 1 for 20 record so she’s not exactly a win machine. Still, if there’s ever a field she can handle it’s this one, and she offers tremendous value anywhere near the morning line and I’m willing to go as low as even money.
Race 4: #7 Fedalia (10-1)
Half of the runners in this 10-horse field do their best running on or near the lead so I’m really expecting this pace to heat up. #3 Dreaming of Audrey (3-1) and #7 Fedalia (10-1) seem like the best closers to me, and Defalia offers much more value at 10-1 so she’ll be the play in here. Those two foes actually traded decisions earlier this year at Gulfstream, so I was surprised to see such a big disparity in price. Let’s hope those prices hold up as I think Fedalia should really appreciate getting back to the synthetic after a couple of meh efforts on the grass. She’s won her last two starts over this surface and really hasn’t done anything wrong all year over the tapeta, so hopefully those two latest efforts were due to the grass and not her tailing off form. I like that Dunslow bothered to claim her back and he gets “win” rider Nicholls to climb back aboard. Minor drop in class hurt, and I think this mare’s got upset potential and is worth a wager at 7-1 or higher.
Race 8: #8 Talking Wonders (9/2)
I’m hoping the distance got to #8 Talking Wonders (9/2) last time because she threw in a clunker last time after displaying good form prior to that. She sat right behind the pace throughout, made a move for the lead in the stretch, and completely spit the bit in the final furlong. In her defense, that race was dominated by closers and she was the first one to make a move into the hot pace. She also should adore the cutback to 5.5 furlongs, since she’s had trouble seeing out the final furlong in pretty much every single start. She’s drawn well in this large field, and she has the best late pace figures by a significant margin. I’m not sure how much speed is lined up in here, but it’s a big field with several first time starters that could show speed on debut. Hopefully there will be ample pace to set up for her late kick and it’s not like she comes from 10 lengths out of it. I like her chances in the nightcap, the 9/2 offered on the morning line seems about right.
