Race 2: #2 Stolen (3-1)
#2 Stolen (3-1) plummets to the bottom for today’s effort and that should make all the difference against a subpar group. She’s yet to run a poor race sprinting on tapeta and all those performances came against better animals. Toss her grass and two-turn races and her form looks even better. She does her best running from midpack and it looks like there are at least two or three who will vie for the lead to set up for her rally. She is the fastest horse in the field on figures, and the only rival that’s really close is the one directly to her outside who is also a career maiden at 0 for 23. If she’s ever going to wind up in the winner’s circle, today is the day, and she seems like a good bet in the 2-1 range.
Race 4: #1 Tourist’s Dream (8-1)
I’m against the favorites in this spot including #2 Rocket Joe Cooper (2-1) who figures to take plenty of money based on some recent speed figures that are strong for this level. I won’t be surprised if he wins, but he’s been disappointing as a short price all year long so I have no reason to trust him. The other that is likely to receive play is #6 Chelsea Dagger (3-1) who also has some strong recent figures. However, those efforts came over the grass and there was substantial improvement once switching surfaces. He’s headed back to the tapeta today, and his performances over synthetic this year are nothing special so let’s take him on.
#1 Tourist’s Dream (8-1) should be a decent price for low profile connections. While he has yet to hit the board this year, the majority of those efforts came against much tougher competition and he earned speed figures that put him in the hunt. I thought he ran well last time despite being marooned in post 13 and having to go five-wide in the turn. He stayed on well to the end despite the ground loss and should appreciate getting back to two turns. He should save all the ground and has tactical speed, which will come in handy in a race without a lot of early lick. He’ll get first run on the closers and we’ll find out if he’s good enough in the stretch.
Race 5: #8 Hey Luigi (10-1)
Pace play here as #8 Hey Luigi(10-1) has upset potential if he can clear the field. His figures are a tad slow, but not much improvement will be required to have a say. This is not the strongest group ever and there’s pretty much nobody else that has been forwardly placed on a consistent basis so he could very easily have things his own way up front. Two of his last three efforts have been solid and he’s clearly much better when getting to the front end. This will be just his second try around two turns and the first time in a while so improvement is possible and it’s not like he ran poorly that day when you factor in the layoff. I think 10-1 would be of tremendous value and am willing to take a shot if he gets bet down as low as 6-1.
