Race 1: #3 Just Follow Me (2-1)
Small field to kick off the card, but four of the six fillies have plenty of early speed to get in each other’s way and set it up for a closer. #3 Just Follow Me (2-1) should be long gone if she can replicate the debut victory. She showed enough speed to be forward, but was content to sit behind a couple of rivals in the early stages. She had no issue passing rivals when she got her cue and drew away from the field to win by an emphatic three lengths. Good looking victory and it came back quick on the speed figures (62 Beyer) relative to this group and who’s to say she can’t take a step forward in start number two? My only concern would be the quick turnaround, but she’s definitely the one to beat.
Race 2: #7 Very Debonaire (6-1)
I handicapped this race prior to the morning line odds being published and was expecting to make #10 Midnight Moonshine (7/2) my top pick until I saw that #7 Very Debonaire (6-1) was a much more attractive price. Very Debonaire is a more consistent runner so I’ll gladly take the better price with him, but this is still a tentative pick and I might flip back depending on what the tote board/will-pays dictate. There are few runners in here that I trust will come running late so I want a horse that will be forward. #7 Very Debonaire has been on the lead in his last three starts all going five furlongs on the grass, so I’ll be very surprised if he can’t clear this field early while stretching out an extra furlong. He’ll have to transfer his form to the synthetic, but he’s a good fit at this class level, has some of the best speed figures in the field, and he’ll be in front turning for home. 6-1 would be an appealing price if we can get it.
#10 Midnight Moonshine (7/2) could also be a play if he drifts up in price. He’s been inconsistent as of late, but excuses can be made for the poor efforts last time and three back (too close to the pace, turf). His better races make him a fit against this group and he’s tactical enough to keep the front-runners in his sights. Six furlongs should hit him right between the eyes and it’s worth mentioning that it sure seemed like the outside paths were a big advantage last week so you can upgrade this guy if that continues to be the case.
Race 3: #3 Unified Front (5/2)
The third race is another where the favorite appears to be pretty strong. 5/2 would be a great price on #3 Unified Front, but I have a feeling she’ll get bet down closer to the 6/5 range. I’m not sure what happened last time as she was a total no-show, but her form prior to that is superior to this bunch so if she can find any of those races she should dominate. Even though she’s plummeting to the bottom it doesn’t concern me since Casse has a huge stable and is likely dropping in hopes of a win and a claim before the meet ends. Versatile runner can adapt to any pace scenario and will likely be close to the pace since this field doesn’t contain much speed. Five pound weight break only enhances her chances and the two recent victories leap off the page since this group has really struggled to find the winner’s circle as of late.
Race 4: #2 Wicked Miah (10-1)
#12 No Whammie (3-1) is likely to go favored in this bulky field as she gets plenty of class relief and her best figures from the summer make her the one to beat. However, she hasn’t run since July and she’s clearly much better on the grass as she has yet to hit the exacta in seven tapeta tries. I’m willing to take her on at a shorter price. The pace is typically quicker than usual in a big field like this and I like #2 Wicked Miah (10-1) to mow them down late at a price. I know she laid an egg last time against easier competition, but she was in between rivals throughout that race and never appeared comfortable. It also didn’t help that there was a crawling pace in front of her and the race flow strongly favored the speed. She’s never been the most consistent runner, but she has been facing tougher lately and note the success at this level early this summer. She’s another that gets the services of Vives and should save all the ground from this inside draw. She’s good enough on her best day and the price should be right so let’s hope she’s able to work out a trip in this big field.
Race 5: #6 Quiet Intent (3-1)
I’ll be surprised if one of the three favorites doesn’t win this race. #1 Basketball Jones (5/2) is definitely one I’ll take on if he’s favored since he’s yet to run well over the tapeta. He does have the best overall figures however, and he’s never sprinted on this surface so I won’t be shocked if he’s able to run well here. #8 Magnificent Mario (7/2) makes sense at what should be a better price. I loved his effort two back and I think this seven furlong distance should be perfect for him. He’s a tad light in the speed figure department however, and I’m worried he won’t get the set-up he needs to come running late.
#6 Quiet Intent (3-1) will be my pick as I think he’s the most likely winner. He’s run well all three times he was in for a tag, and he wasn’t disgraced in his three most recent races that came against tougher competition. He’s back in for a tag today and I’d expect an improved performance with the class relief. Last time he pressed the pace going two turns and just couldn’t see out the trip. That’s been the theme of his form lately and he strikes me as a horse that’s been begging for a cutback. He finally gets it today and his trainer wins at a strong clip with this move. The blinkers go on today so he’ll likely be forward and I love that he’s got the second best late pace figures in the field.
Race 6: #1 Silent Sky (2-1)
In my opinion #1 Silent Sky (2-1) is the strongest favorite on the card. Last time out she had a wide trip while against the race flow and did well to still get second. The maiden victory two back was visually impressive and I love that she nearly paired up Beyer tops, suggesting she could take another step forward for today’s race. That could spell trouble for the rest of the field, since Silent Sky already has the best speed figures. She has a cozy inside draw and has tactical speed in a field full of deep closers. She’ll be tough to beat with anything close to her best.
Race 7: #6 No More Diamonds (8-1)
Any conversation about this race has to begin with #7 Sweet Serenade (2-1). This is one of the biggest class drops I’ve seen in awhile as she’s dropping from open allowance foes at Keeneland, to non-winners of three lifetime $15k claimers at Woodbine. It’s an awfully suspicious drop, throw in the long layoff and I have no problem letting her beat me at a short price. She’ll be motoring down the center of the track if she can still run. #9 Umneyaat (3-1) is the other late runner to fear late, but all of her best work has come over the turf course with a few tapeta clunkers sprinkled in between. While I don’t want to support either of those two on the winning end, I’d be surprised if anybody outkicks them late so I wanted to look for a horse that’ll be positioned in front of them.
Back to back for #6 No More Diamonds (8-1)? She was ridden aggressively last time by Kimura and it paid off in a big way as she ran them off their feet. Since it worked last time, I can’t imagine the plan will be any different today, and it’s not like this field is loaded with pace. She’s realistically spotted after that performance and probably needs to improve to win this race, but she’s the one they’ll have to catch and 8-1 seems like a good value play.
Race 8: #7 Hermione Granger (20-1)
As a huge Harry Potter fan, I will never ever forgive myself if I let #7 Hermione Granger (20-1) beat me at a huge price so by default she’ll be my top pick in the finale. In her defense, I didn’t have a hard time making a case for her as she’s got plenty of early speed and it’s never a bad idea to gun it when racing five furlongs. This isn’t the most consistent group and she’s not a huge stretch from a speed figure perspective. She’s never been on the synthetic, but the breeding suggests she could handle it and the cutback in distance can’t hurt since she’s had trouble going six and a half furlongs. This race is absolutely wide open anyways so why not take a swing with a huge price to end the night?
