Race 5: #3 Hot Dance (8-1)
Let’s take a shot in the fifth race with #3 Hot Dance (8-1). This filly has run okay in both of her starts, but has mostly been running evenly through the lane. The debut was particularly intriguing as she was against the race flow, but still did well to get up for third to finish behind a couple of future stakes winners. She was arguably against the race flow in start number two as well, and earned a similar speed figure for that fifth place performance. I like that she stretches out to two turns for start number three and shows the classic two sprints to a route angle. The trainer has had success with this angle and again those even running lines going short are an indication she’ll appreciate the stretch-out. She was outrun early in those races, but the slower pace of a route should allow her to sit closer to the front end. She’s certainly bred to go long and this May filly should be ready for a peak effort in start number three.
Race 7: #2 Lantana Lady (8-1)
A big field lines up for this six furlong dash and it sure appears that the pace should be very fast early. I like #2 Lantana Lady (8-1) to mow them down late from mid-pack. She showed a new dimension last time when closing into a slow pace from dead last and winning pretty easily in the end after being blocked for much of the race. The lightly raced filly didn’t earn any significant improvement from a speed figure perspective but visually she did things the right way. She’s another that has basically paired up Beyer tops which suggests she may be ready for a peak performance for today’s start. With enough tactical speed to keep them in her sights and a cozy inside draw, she should get a pretty sweet trip as long as she’s able to weave her way through traffic when the real running starts. She provides good value at anywhere near the 8-1 listed on the morning line.
Race 10: #6 Astapovo (3-1)
It’s now or never for the likely favorite in the nightcap, #6 Astapovo (3-1). He’s coming off a strong effort against much tougher competition where he was involved throughout and won the three way battle for the lead. Unfortunately for him, the come-from-behinders got perfect set-ups to run by him in the lane and he had to settle for fourth. It was still a solid effort as he was only beaten a couple lengths and it was a classic case of winning the battle but losing the war. He now plummets in class to the very bottom and I’d imagine the connections are just trying to get a win before the end of the meet. He meets a field that doesn’t contain much substance and any of his decent efforts should be good enough. He’s the fastest horse in the field on early pace figures and he’s also one of the fastest on late pace figures. That is typically a winning formula in this game, so assuming he shows up he’ll be very tough to beat. I’ll be surprised to get 3-1 on this runner, but anything in the 8/5-2-1 range would seem like a fair price to me.
