Saturday, Race #5: The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
(Dirt – 7 Furlongs) 3 YO+ Fillies and Mares
Purse: $1 Million
A field of 9 has been entered and drawn for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint with the race likely to have a big say in who ultimately is crowned this year’s Champion Female Sprinter. This race lost some of its luster after the unfortunate injury that Echo Zulu suffered while training, though it’s uncertain whether the star filly would have opted for this race or tackled males in the Sprint. Other defections such as Wicked Halo and Caramel Swirl in recent weeks also contributed to this race being one of the few Breeders’ Cup races to draw single-digit entrants.
The race is likely to feature a very heavy favorite in the form of defending champion #1 Goodnight Olive (6/5 ML Favorite). This mare has been the model of consistency throughout her career having won 8 times while never finishing off the board in 11 career starts. Through her first three starts of the year some might have questioned whether she was performing up to the lofty standards she set for herself last year. Those races consisted of two workmanlike wins in the G1-Madison at Keeneland and the G2-Bed o’ Roses at Belmont with a troubled-trip third in the G1-Derby City Distaff sandwiched in between. However, her race in the G1-Ballerina at Saratoga, albeit a defeat, arguably represented the best race of her career as she tussled with Echo Zulu throughout. Goodnight Olive finished second that day but there was a chasm of over 6 lengths back to third. The major concern for the favorite is the less than ideal post draw. She’s likely not quick enough to get to the front end and her inside draw puts her in jeopardy of being hemmed in throughout the race. Those fears became a reality in her loss at Churchill earlier this year, so jockey Irad Ortiz Jr must extricate from the fence while also not losing valuable early position.
The filly that is viewed as the principal rival to the favorite is #7 Society (5/2 ML) who was able to rebound from a pair of lackluster efforts that began her 4YO campaign and post front-running victories in both the G3-Chicago Stakes at Ellis Park and the Pink Ribbon Stakes at Charles Town. Her speed is certainly her biggest weapon, but I’d argue she got setups in her last two starts that flattered that attribute. Ellis Park was a speed-favoring strip throughout most of the summer and she was able to set a moderate pace at the bull ring at Charles Town where that configuration often tilts towards front runners. Now she’ll have to deal with another speedball in #3 Eda (10-1 ML) with that filly’s hand forced by drawing towards the inside.
The filly that defeated Goodnight Olive at Churchill in May is back in this spot as Brad Cox sends out #4 Matareya (6-1 ML) who with a win would have a solid case for divisional honors. It’s tough to see her turning the tables on the top pair in this race as she’s been defeated by a combined 20+ lengths by them in her last two starts.
The wildcard in this race is the Japanese invader #6 Meikei Yell (15-1 ML) who was one of the top sprinters in her home country during 2022 (albeit over the grass) taking down multiple G2’s with competitive form ratings. Her form this year hasn’t been as strong, but some excuses can be made for the majority of her starts whether it was soft turf or the mile distance that looks outside her scope. Her last race in the prestigious G1-Sprinters Stakes represented an improved effort suggesting she’s rounding back into form. While the surface switch is a question mark, we only have to harken back two years for a parallel as Marche Lorraine gave the Japanese contingent an upset win in a Breeders’ Cup dirt race for older fillies and mares in the 2021 Distaff.
As is often the case in Breeders’ Cup races even the balance of this field comes in with solid credentials. #5 Kirstenbosch (10-1 ML) and #2 Clearly Unhinged (12-1 ML) finished 1-2 in the local prep race for this back in late September. #8 Three Witches (30-1 ML) and #9 Yuugiri (8-1 ML) both punched their tickets to this race by registering back-to-back dirt sprint wins with them both coming in off graded stakes wins. However, this quartet looks a touch too slow on speed figures to compete for the win honors.
Overall, this race looks like it could become a coronation for last year’s champion Goodnight Olive, but her rail post draw gives some cause for pause. If this proves to be too big of an obstacle to overcome, look for this race to feature a chaotic result.
