2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Preview – By Eric Solomon

Friday, Race #8: The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
(Dirt – 1 1/16 Miles) 2 YO
Purse: $2 Million

This race has had a mixed bag over the years in terms of producing three year olds that can compete on the Derby Trail. Last year’s race gave us Forte, who won the Grade 1 Florida Derby and was the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby (despite being scratched). National Treasure was third last year and he would go on to win the Preakness Stakes this spring. Verifying finished 6th, but would go on to be a graded stakes winner as a three year old. This year’s race features some talented runners for some top tier barns, some of which are logical candidates to have success in the Classic races next year, and others that might be better suited to some of the other races available for three year olds. 

The morning line favorite is #6 Locked (7/2 ML) for Todd Pletcher. He’s following a similar pattern to Forte from last year. He was an impressive maiden breaker during closing week at Saratoga. He shipped to Keeneland for the Breeders’ Futurity last month where he overcame a wide trip to notch his first Grade 1 victory. He’s sired by Gun Runner out of a Malibu Moon mare, so he should have no problem as the races get longer. I see him as a major player in this race, assuming that the track will be playing fairly, and horses that come from off the pace have a fighting chance. He’s also a runner that could be a major player in the Triple Crown races next year. 

Pletcher will also be represented by #9 Fierceness (6-1 ML) and #11 Noted (20-1 ML). Fierceness was a dominant winner in the mud at Saratoga winning by over 11 lengths when going 6 furlongs in the mud. He came up empty as the 3-5 favorite in the Champagne at Aqueduct on a sloppy course in his most recent start. He’s never competed on a fast track, a status which will likely change after this race. The dam won her first two starts in sprints, but finished off the board in her only two turn effort. Horses sired by City of Light have won 14% of their dirt route races so far. There’s hope that he can stretch out, but I think his wide draw and his inexperience will hold him back here. Noted was an easy winner in his only dirt start, scoring in the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth. His other three starts came on the turf, including a narrow defeat in the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes last month at Keeneland. While I don’t mind his outside draw with his running style, I think the water is a little deep for him.

Bob Baffert has also entered a trio of runners, headed by Grade 1 winners #2 Prince of Monaco (4-1 ML) and #10 Muth (4-1 ML). Both runners were purchased for large sums of money, with Prince of Monaco costing $950K in August of 2022 and Muth going for $2 million at the OBS Sale in March of 2023. Prince of Monaco was dazzling in the Best Pal, but while he was able to grind out a victory in the Del Mar Futurity, that race didn’t convince me that he was crying out for a two turn race. Muth was very impressive when winning the American Pharoah Stakes last month. He was down inside, and despite his large size, he never seemed to be uncomfortable. Once Hernandez was able to get out, he came up to the throat latch of his stablemate, #3 Wine Me Up (15-1 ML), and went right on by once he switched leads. He’s drawn outside today, so ground loss and early positioning are going to be important for him as well. My only concern with him is that his Beyer Speed Figure pattern has been flat, essentially hitting the same number three times in a row. He’ll likely need to move forward off his last to beat this group. I thought the effort from Wine Me Up was valiant in defeat. He took a big step forward from his maiden win and fought tooth and nail before conceding the lead late. He was eased up late as there was a large gap between him and the third palace finisher. At 15-1 on the morning line, I see him as a horse that has upside and value as the “other-other” Baffert runner here. 

The top two finishers from the Champagne Stakes will ship West for their first two-turn test. #3 Timberlake (4-1 ML) ran second in the notoriously slow Hopeful Stakes. He came back with a strong “bounce back” effort to take home the trophy in the Champagne. His dam was a run all day type, winning some smaller races overseas at 14 furlongs on the turf. With the speed influence of Into Mischief, he should be able to have success between 8 and 10 furlongs. He looked very comfortable while rating last out, so I can envision him having success with a similar kind of trip in this race. #8 General Partner (8-1 ML) for Chad Brown, was the runner up in that spot. He feels more like a one turn horse to me, though. My thinking is that if he does have success at two turns, it will be on the turf. 

This will likely be a race where I’ll spread because I think Timberlake, Locked, and Muth are all very logical players in this race. If the odds float up on any of these three, I could consider playing them more aggressively. However, my top pick in this race is going to be #1 The Wine Steward (8-1 ML) for Mike Maker. This New York-bred from the freshman crop of Vino Rosso has improved in each start. I thought his effort against Locked was very good in the Breeders’ Futurity. He dug in gamely along the rail and fought him every step of the way. He should get a ground saving trip just off the early speed in this race, and then it will be up to Luis Saez to be able to time his move. Two year olds sired by Vino Rosso have won 26% of their main track route races and Vino Rosso had his two biggest wins on this course. He won the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita in May of 2019 and Breeders’ Cup Classic later that same year. This improving colt has a strong foundation, which certainly was beneficial for Forte last year. I think he might offer the best value in this strong contest.