Friday, Race #7: The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
(Turf – 1 Mile) 2 YO Fillies
Purse: $1 Million
The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf will go as the third of fourteen Breeders’ Cup races this weekend, with a very strong, overflow field assembled. This race generally acts as one of the deepest races on Future Stars’ Friday and it is no different here in 2023.
While you might assume that because it is a grass race that Europeans have dominated affairs, but U.S. based runners have won 12 of the 15 runnings of the Juvenile Fillies Turf. While only four Euros turn up for this year’s edition, they all boast strong Group form across the Atlantic and could be players in the race.
#6 Porta Fortuna (5-1 ML) looks a logical overseas favorite as she exits a Group 1 win in her most recent start. She’s been the model of consistency through 6 career starts, posting four wins and placing in two other G1s during her juvenile campaign. While she is yet to win beyond 6 furlongs, she finished up nicely in her lone start over 7 panels two starts ago. #9 Carla’s Way (6-1 ML) also comes off a win at Newmarket last time out, handily winning the G2 Rockfel S. in late September. She is as low as 12-1 for next year’s 1000 Guineas by some bookmakers and is relishing every added furlong she’s gotten recently. #14 Les Pavots (8-1 ML) chased home the well-regarded Opera Singer in a G1 in France most recently and is a G2 winner over 7/8ths. She has been a solid commodity but it’s tough to make a case she has an edge on form over these other Euro fillies. #5 Content (15-1) does exit a G3 win in Ireland, but her prior form is rather suspect, and other than Aidan O’Brien’s win in this race last year, his record in this race is subpar.
#11 She Feels Pretty (4-1 ML Favorite) is the consensus leader among stateside runners. She has been perfect in two career outings, including an open-length domination of the G1 Natalma S. last time out. The daughter of 2014 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner, Karakontie, took a big leap forward when stretching out to a mile for the first time, and will likely improve even more going two turns for the first time. I think it is fair to say that the quality of U.S. runners in this division isn’t strong, but nobody has put their competition away as effortlessly as She Feels Pretty.
#12 Hard to Justify (6-1 ML) is probably the best option of three other North American prep race winners as she’ll likely have a pace advantage. The daughter of Justify is also trained by Chad Brown, who has won this race a record five times. She showed a new dimension by sitting a close-up second before winning the G3 Miss Grillo S. last time out, beating two other runners who show up here. #7 Gala Brand (12-1 ML) was third in that spot, presenting a strong late rally into a dawdling pace. She beat the boys two back at the graded level and has a closing kick that can hang with anyone in this group. The problem is a lack of pace may hurt her chances. #8 Life’s An Audible (15-1 ML) was a solid second in the Miss Grillo but it’s hard to reason that she’ll turn the tables on Hard to Justify, as well as beat everybody else.
#3 Buchu (6-1 ML) won the G2 Jessamine S. and is the only runner exiting that spot. She has been mighty impressive in back-to-back turf wins, but she also has not beaten anyone of note. The top three from the local prep, the G3 Surfer Girl S., all appear in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, and all have an uphill climb if they want to factor at the end. #13 Dreamfyre (15-1 ML) and #1 Buttercream Babe (30-1 ML) merry-go-rounded the field, with the duo finishing in that order and Dreamfyre running out of gas late. #2 Flattery (20-1 ML) flew on to be third in there and is another who needs some early speed to close into.
While it probably isn’t considered a true final prep, #10 Austere (12-1 ML) looked sharp in her most recent start, winning the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies S.. Connections opted to pass on the Jessamine and train into this spot, which means she is a little less exposed than her rivals, but on raw ability she could be a contender at a price. #4 Laulne (15-1 ML) will make her first start for trainer Phil D’Amato after making her first six starts in France. A G2 winner there, she comes off a close second at the G3 level but was well beaten by Les Pavots two back.
