By: Jackson Muniz
Friday, Race #6: The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
(Dirt – 1 1/16 Miles) 2 YO Fillies
Purse: $2 Million
The conversation about the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies has to start with #7 Tamara (4/5), who will likely be the shortest priced favorite of the entire weekend for good reason. She won her debut in impressive fashion, overcoming a tough rail draw at Del Mar and a pretty severe stumble at the start. She showed plenty of tactical speed despite the poor start, and won in a professional manner with a strong gallop out. She earned a solid figure for that performance, so it was no surprise when she took another step forward with her dazzling victory in the Del Mar Debutante. She broke much better that day and pressed a fast pace through the opening half mile. As the field rounded the turn, she made a huge move for the lead and quickly opened up and it was lights out as Mike Smith never even thought about using the stick. Super impressive performance that came back quick on the clock, as she earned a 91 Beyer figure.
I have my doubts about the quality of this field, so there’s no doubt in my mind that she’s the one to beat, but she does have a few questions to answer. While she gives every indication she’ll stretch out to two turns, you never know for sure until they try. And I think this layoff could be an issue, especially over a track that is typically deep and tiring. But again, Mandella is one of the best to ever do it and he wouldn’t have entered her in this spot if he didn’t think she was ready. I’m not in love with the draw either as she’ll be right smack in the middle of this bulky field and she’s had trouble getting out of the gate before. At the end of the day though, I think she is simply a superior talent and should get the job done at a very short price.
The general consensus heading into the past weekend was that the Alcibiades race could prove to be the biggest threat to Tamara. That idea took a bit of a dive when the runner-up V V’s Dream got pasted as the 1/9 favorite at Churchill Downs, so I have my doubts about the form of that race too. #1 Candied (4-1) was clearly the best horse in the Alcibiades as she sat mid-pack chasing a pedestrian pace, showed excellent acceleration at the quarter pole to take over the lead and won going away in a powerful performance. It was an eye-catching win and she’s got plenty of room left to improve in start number three, but I’m still hesitant whether she was really beating anybody. The two horses on the lead had it pretty comfortable up there and just had absolutely nothing left so they’re no good, and again V V’s Dream didn’t do any running against a weak field in a minor stakes. I won’t be shocked if she runs well, but she provides no value at what will likely be the clear second choice.
The horse I want to get into the trifecta with Tamara is a different Pletcher runner who will be a big price in #3 Scalable (20-1). The Chandelier is another race where the quality of the field was suspect and it didn’t earn a big number, but there’s no doubt in my mind that Scalable ran the best race as she was completely against the race flow. The pace was very slow and the horses positioned 1-2-3 early would finish 1-3-4. Scalable closed from well out of it and grinded away to get up for second. I’m not worried that her figure was on the slower side since she is a closer and her figures will be reliant on the help she gets up front, and note she did improve by 6 points on the Beyer scale. This will be just her third career start so there’s no reason she can’t take another step forward and I like that Ortiz hops aboard. The experience over this taxing track is a big plus for me, as is the improvement when stretching out to two turns since most of this field is untested at this trip. She should get plenty of pace in this bulky field, I’m expecting her to be grinding away in the lane.
Sticking with the West Coast, #6 Chatalas (8-1) was a hype horse heading into Del Mar this summer and showed us why with a gritty effort in a sprint that was much shorter than she prefers. She finally put it all together last time in the Chandelier, but she had things her own way that day and wasn’t able to improve on the debut victory. My biggest concern is that race against Tamara. I’m probably a little more forgiving than others for that performance as she never really appeared comfortable between rivals down the backside and was on the pace throughout to finish a decent fourth. She was just simply no match for Tamara that day who was also forward throughout and absolutely crushed her. I’ll be shocked if she can turn the tables on that filly but she is one I want to keep an eye on going forward as she clearly has talent and these Gun Runners have proven they can improve with age.
The other filly that I should mention is #12 Just FYI (8-1) for Bill Mott. I always pay a little extra attention when a Mott trainee wins at first asking and the money she took that day certainly hinted at ability. I’m not sure about the quality of that field as the second through fourth finishers haven’t returned to the races yet. She won the Frizette in impressive fashion, but that was far from the strongest group and she had a perfect trip, racing in the clear in a small field on a sloppy racetrack. She wasn’t done any favors with this 12 post and I do wonder if she’ll eventually be best on the grass. Maybe she is this good but I can’t endorse her based on two perfect trips against questionable fields.
The Pick: I think #7 Tamara will prove to be too tough for this bunch and will romp at a short price (unload if you can somehow get even money). I’ll try to get some value in this race by keying #3 Scalable in exactas and trifectas at a big number with Tamara on top.
