2024 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #4

The fourth 2024 Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool opens up on Friday, February 16th at noon Eastern. This promises to be the most wide open pool of the season to date following the string of upsets in the early February prep races. The most notable of those came in the Holy Bull Stakes, where champion juvenile and recent future wager individual favorite, Fierceness, flopped in his seasonal debut. As a result, stablemate and ITM Derby Top 10 frontrunner, Locked, was named the 10-1 individual morning line favorite for this pool.

Clarity will be provided on quite a few offerings this weekend, as Fair Grounds hosts the G2 Risen Star Stakes, plus a contentious allowance event on the undercard, before the pool closes at 6 PM Eastern on Sunday. One disadvantage does come with the G3 Sunland Derby, which offers 20 Derby points to the winner, but post time for that event isn’t until 6:17 PM ET on Sunday.

Be sure to take a look at the ITM Derby Top 10 list to get even more Derby thoughts at this stage in the prep calendar. There will be an updated list following the Risen Star this weekend.

As is custom, I will give a quick briefing on each offering in the pool before giving three horses to consider and three horses to fade. Let’s dive into it:

#1 – Agate Road (50-1 ML): The well-bred Pletcher trainee ran a bang-up second when given way too much to do in the G3 Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa last weekend. I think it’s fair to question the overall quality of that race, but that Tampa surface is a demanding one, so this colt’s ability to close well over it in a race where speed didn’t back up hard is something to take notice of. An intriguing price who will appreciate more ground.

#2 – Amante Bianco (JPN) (90-1 ML): The first of two Japanese-based runners in the pool, Amante Bianco opted against shipping to the G3 Saudi Derby and made his three year old debut this past week. He blew the break in the minor stakes at Ohi (NAR) and had to make up plenty of ground from there, still closing to be a solid second. Not much on form could make him a viable play in the pool, even with the nice price.

#3 – Born Noble (40-1 ML): A fairly low morning line set on this Todd Pletcher trained runner despite dropping his last decision. He set a contended pace in a first-level allowance at Gulfstream on Holy Bull day before being caught late by Real Macho, who is not an individual offering in this pool. His maiden win was sharp, he’s thrown solid figures in both starts, and he did not run terribly in the loss, but he still has plenty to prove.

#4 – Capital Idea (80-1 ML): This colt took a major step forward in his second career start, breaking his maiden at Aqueduct by over 8 lengths improving 15 points to an 84 Beyer. While the improvement was evident, trainer Clement has never had a horse make it to the Derby starting gate, so it’s very fair to question if he can get this one from a maiden win to that point in just over 3 months.

#5 – Catching Freedom (25-1 ML): Brad Cox may only have four individual interests in the fourth pool, but what he lacks in size he makes up for in quality. Catching Freedom won the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn on New Years’ Day, then opted to pass on the G3 Southwest S. to run in the G2 Risen Star S. this weekend. While it is a tough spot, it is a great litmus test to see how he and others fit in the Derby picture this year. This colt’s lone defeat looked poor initially, but since then the runner-up has become a stakes winner on turf and the third place finisher dominated an allowance in his next start. Plenty of ability, thankfully we’ll get to find out how much at Fair Grounds on Saturday before having to place a wager.

#6 – Conquest Warrior (20-1 ML): A botched break and terrible trip gave this Shug McGaughey trainee every reason to quit in his last start, yet he rallied mightily to post one of the most impressive maiden wins of the season. He is working forwardly towards his next out, either an allowance race or the G2 Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. A concern could rise when considering his stablemate, Change of Command, who flopped as the favorite in the G3 Sam F. Davis S. last weekend for this same barn when receiving similar hype.

#7 – Deterministic (99-1 ML): If this horse is able to make a start within the next month, look out. He was the sharpest maiden winner of the Saratoga meet last summer, running greenly before flying home late and posting high marks in the victory. He is bred to love the classic distances, and clearly has all the talent in the world, it will just be a question of if he can be ready.

#8 – Dimatic (80-1 ML): Another lightly raced yet mightily intriguing prospect, Dimatic recently broke his maiden at Oaklawn Park. He lost his first two outings while also suggesting the best was yet to come for him, and then put some things together in his win last out. However, the quality of that maiden race is probably suspect and he was extremely erratic through the lane. Loads of ability, but plenty of refinement would be needed before May.

#9 – Domestic Product (60-1 ML): This was a horse touted in the preview of the second Future Wager pool, but then he ran poorly in the G2 Remsen S.. However, Chad Brown kept the faith, taking the blinkers off for the next start, and he moved up tremendously to run a big second in the G3 Holy Bull. He’s already proven over 9 furlongs and has now proven himself against the class of Fierceness and Hades. Should keep improving in the leadup to the Derby.

#10 – Dornoch (15-1 ML): A full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby hero, Mage, Dornoch is the co-second choice on the morning line in the pool. It is extremely fair given his gritty win last time out paired with the form that has come out of that win the G2 Remsen S.. He has, as JK pointed out in the last ITM Derby Top 10 video, improved his stock by just sitting in the barn. That Remsen has since produced the winner of the Jerome Stakes and the runner-ups of the Swale Stakes and G3 Holy Bull. Should Remsen rival Sierra Leone take the G2 Risen Star on Saturday, Dornoch’s Derby hype will reach fever pitch.

#11 – El Grande O (80-1 ML): For the fans of “old school” types, El Grande O is your guy. He has already made 10 starts before March of his three year old season, which includes two stakes wins in New York-bred company and now back-to-back placings in Aqueduct Derby preps. He was a narrow nose loser of the G3 Withers S. last time out, but provided he’s capable of going a route of ground. The figures also came back a little stronger than expected. He’s a longshot on the line for good reason, but there is good reason to think he can at least make the Derby starting gate if he stays on the New York path.

#12 – Epic Ride (60-1 ML): An intriguing type from Kentucky, Epic Ride has ripped off two straight wins on the Turfway Tapeta. He recently took the Leonatus Stakes, a non-points paying prep for the remaining pair of Derby points races at Turfway. He was green as could be on that day but there was no doubt he was losing. Epic Ride is also bred to run all day and should handle dirt very well. Don’t forget, the Turfway Road to the Kentucky Derby produced the runner-up last year (Two Phil’s) and the winner in 2022 (Rich Strike.

#13 – Fierceness (12-1 ML): Polarizing. That’s the only way I can describe Fierceness. His brilliance has been displayed in two towering victories, including a crowning score in the Breeders’ Cup. A tough start and a sloppy track compromised him in the G1 Champagne last October, but find a solid excuse for the G3 Holy Bull… you really can’t. On one hand, a battle tested horse is the best kind of horse in the Kentucky Derby. On the other, any time this colt has been punched in the mouth he has cowered.

#14 – Forever Young (JPN) (30-1 ML): Universally considered the leading hope of the Japanese in 2024, Forever Young is a perfect 3-for-3 and will make his next start in the Saudi Derby two weekends from now. He is already proven over 9 furlongs, winning his first two races at the distance, and will relish any extra ground he gets. If he were to lose what looks like a salty edition of the Saudi Derby, don’t be concerned, as a one turn mile is probably not his distance. Remember last year that Derma Sotogake closed well when needing more ground in that event before dominating the UAE Derby in his next start.

#15 – Hades (30-1 ML): While all the focus leading into the G3 Holy Bull S. was on Fierceness, Hades came into the event an undefeated two-for-two with solid figures backing him up. Despite never running two turns and both of his wins coming in restricted company, he was a game foe who repelled two quality opponents in Domestic Product and Fierceness. However, Hades remains an unknown quantity because he saved every inch of ground while setting a snail-like pace that day. How will this colt respond to adversity should he face it next time out?

#16 – Hall of Fame (20-1 ML): This ambitiously named, $1.4 million son of Gun Runner lit up racing circles with a dominant maiden win on Risen Star day. That was following a very encouraging debut effort where he closed well from off the pace in a one-turn event at Churchill. Thankfully for Hall of Fame and his Future Wager status, he runs in the Risen Star on Saturday. A win would certainly vault him into the top three individual offerings. It is worth noting that Steve Asmussen is 0-for-13 over the past five years when moving three year old colts up from a maiden win straight to a two-turn dirt stakes race.

#17 – Honor Marie (25-1 ML): The G2 Kentucky Jockey Club winner is another colt we’ll get to see run in the Risen Star before this pool closes. While he was a very sharp winner that day and is clearly a horse who will appreciate every inch of distance he’ll get, we should question the overall quality of the race. The four horses to run back from that event have all missed the board in their next starts, with the two best finishers in the KYJC (Risk It and Awesome Road) both regressing on Beyers.

#18 – Imperial Gun (80-1 ML): Another son of Gun Runner trained by Steve Asmussen, he took a sharp step up in his second start when breaking his maiden by about 6 lengths. There is still plenty to prove with this runner as there hasn’t been much returns on the horses he beat in the win. Given he passed on the Fair Grounds card this Saturday, it is reasonable to believe he’s headed to either an allowance race or the G2 Rebel next weekend.

#19 – Just Steel (80-1 ML): D. Wayne Lukas is firmly back on the Derby trail with this colt, who has run second in the first two legs of the Oaklawn Derby prep series. Lukas has been repeatedly quoted as saying Just Steel hasn’t quite been at 100% for his last two runs, suggesting his best could come should he run in the G2 Rebel next Saturday. While he is bred to handle longer distances, his best efforts have come sprinting, and it has felt like he has gotten a little short in his last two route races. Was that a distance limitation, or was he just not fit enough? It remains to be seen.

#20 – Just A Touch (60-1 ML): Justify shattered the Apollo curse six years ago by breaking his maiden in the winter before rattling off two straight wins. Could his son Just A Touch do the same? This colt was mightily impressive on debut, winning with ease at Fair Grounds on January 28th. It rivaled the brilliance of Speak Easy’s well regarded Gulfstream debut with about 10% of the fanfare. Trainer Brad Cox has already thrown the G3 Gotham S. as a next target, which he could be dangerous in should he run.

#21 – Knightsbridge (30-1 ML): Still unseen in the afternoons since a dominant maiden win in November, Knightsbridge has been working steadily over the past month. Given Bill Mott’s propensity to take his time with early three year olds, it is fair to be skeptical on whether this colt will have enough time to make the Derby. I should also once again remind everyone that he is a brother to Speaker’s Corner, a very brilliant horse in his own right, who also came with distance limitations.

#22 – Lat Long (90-1 ML): A colt who took five starts to break his maiden, trainer Kenny McPeek immediately lofted him to stakes company, where he was a non-discrepant third at 27-1 in the G3 Lecomte. While it wasn’t a bad effort, and he had to run against the pace of the race, there is plenty more to be desired on this front. A wonderful price though if you are interested.

#23 – Liberal Arts (60-1 ML): The G3 Street Sense S. winner was given a lot to do in the G3 Southwest S. upon seasonal reappearance, but I was very impressed with how well he finished up that day. He is clearly a colt who will get better as the distances get longer, so I envision another step forward on all fronts when he makes his next likely start in the G1 Arkansas Derby.

#24 – Locked (10-1 ML): The new leader in the clubhouse by many accounts (including the ITM Derby Top 10), Locked did miss an intended start in last week’s G3 Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa. However, Todd Pletcher has already pinpointed the G2 Fountain of Youth S. as his next likely start. This colt has proven his talent with every start and should only keep improving. He’ll be one of the favorites come Derby day if his form stays this consistent.

#25 – Lucky Jeremy (99-1 ML): One of two runners in the pool who are entered in the G3 Sunland Derby on Sunday. As previously mentioned, there is no benefit of that run as it relates to this Future Wager, because this pool closes 17 minutes before scheduled post time for that race. Lucky Jeremy is the likely second choice for that event, behind Stronghold, due to his sharp win in the Riley Allison on January 19th. Regardless of the effort, he is still a big longshot in the grand scheme of the Kentucky Derby. Worth noting he is bred on the same exact cross as 2019 Kentucky Derby winner, Country House.

#26 – Mystik Dan (20-1 ML): The parade of upsets recently on the Derby trail have been championed by Mystik Dan, who closed the second Future Wager pool at 105-1 and was completely removed as an individual interest for the third one. That all came before his 8 length win in the G3 Southwest Stakes over a few colts also on offer in this pool. Now, he’s 20-1 on the fourth pool morning line. As good as that win was, how much do you attribute to the sloppy track and wonderful, ground saving trip? How can those be weighed against two very dull fifth place efforts leading into that race? A perplexing colt despite the big figures out of that win.

#27 – Nash (30-1 ML): The hype will not die on Nash despite two decisive defeats at the hands of Track Phantom in New Orleans. He sat relatively quiet trips in both stakes losses, but came up empty when the running got going. Brad Cox will now drop this colt into a first-level allowance on Risen Star day to try and regain confidence before hopping back on the Derby trail. This is reminiscent to what he did with Cyberknife two years ago, as that colt went on the win the G1 Arkansas Derby before running up the track in the Kentucky Derby.

#28 – No More Time (40-1 ML): This colt bounced back from a troubled trip in the Mucho Macho Man S. on New Years’ Day to take the G3 Sam F. Davis S. in wire-to-wire fashion, his two turn debut. It was a stellar effort but also came over a field that had a lot to prove and, well, did not. The talent is here but there is plenty to be desired. As it relates to the Future Wager, this is probably the best price you will get on him should he really be the quality of a true Derby contender.

#29 – Real Men Violin (90-1 ML): Yet another Risen Star runner, this colt has continually proved he is willing to put in big efforts, but has also never shown to have a winning instinct. His lone win, despite coming over Track Phantom, was not awe inspiring. Perhaps there have been steps taken forward into his three year old campaign, but that is a “see it to believe it” situation.

#30 – Resilience (99-1 ML): Also in the Risen Star, Resilience comes off a maiden win at Gulfstream on New Years’ Day. As would be expected for a Bill Mott runner, it took him a few starts to break his maiden, but his breakthrough win was an encouraging one despite the figures not being sharp. We also have to factor in he caught the likes of Locked, Drum Roll Please, Stronghold, Track Phantom, and Nash in his first three starts.

#31 – Sierra Leone (15-1 ML): The likely post time favorite for the Risen Star in my eyes, Sierra Leone makes his first start since a heartbreaking loss in the G2 Remsen. He made the lead briefly in the stretch before Dornoch came back on him and pipped him on the line. Nevertheless, the quality is evident and I already discussed how strong of a race the Remsen looks right now. I hope you grabbed onto him when you had the chance back in Pool 2, as he will likely never be close to 36-1 in any other Future Wager, or the Derby itself.

#32 – Speak Easy (30-1 ML): This Pletcher pupil’s maiden win was so sharp on Pegasus day that he cracked the ITM Derby Top 10 last week. He threw hefty figures by all measurements in the 7 furlong event, beating plenty of well regarded runners in the process. In fact, the runner-up from that race, Victory Avenue, is being considered for the G2 Fountain of Youth despite being a maiden. It remains to be seen where Speak Easy will turn up next, but he is working well. Could he make it back-to-back years where a colt breaks his maiden on Pegasus day and then wins the Kentucky Derby 3 months later?

#33 – Stronghold (99-1 ML): This colt will head slightly East after meeting some tough rivals from the Bob Baffert barn in two graded stakes efforts, both second place finishes. He is the probable favorite for the G3 Sunland Derby on Sunday. His runner-up effort last out in the G2 Los Al Futurity was muddied when Wynstock ran poorly in the G3 Southwest, despite encountering trouble. His maiden win three back presents very strong form, as he beat both Resilience and Track Phantom. If that race in any indication, will getting away from the Baffert’s make this horse a viable Derby contender?

#34 – Timberlake (30-1 ML): A horse I’ve always held in high regard, he is working steadily towards his first run of the year in next weekend’s G2 Rebel. He has always been a raw product with plenty of ability, so it is only reasonable to think he’s blossomed with the break he’s had since a solid effort in the Breeders’ Cup. If you haven’t gotten on board when he’s been 27-1 and 30-1 in the last two Future Wager’s, jump on now before it is too late.

#35 – Track Phantom (20-1 ML): Football season just wrapped up. I’m sure many are familiar with the phrase, “there’s no such thing as an easy win in the National Football League”. The same applies to the Derby trail, where Track Phantom has won back-to-back stakes at Fair Grounds. You can mention that he’s sat dream trips or that he’s beat the same caliber of foes twice, but the facts are he is the only multi-race winner on this year’s Derby trail. He faces a brutally tough test in this weekend’s Risen Star, but as long as he puts a good step forward you should feel good about him going forward on the Derby trail.

#36 – Tuscan Gold (50-1 ML): When Chad Brown has found his way into the Kentucky Derby, it has generally been with a colt we were familiar with heading into the year. Tuscan Gold looks to be a quality exception, as his maiden win on January 31 suggests a horse to reckoned with going forward. He closed effortlessly from off the pace to win in his two-turn debut, scoring by over 6 lengths. His debut run, much needed for experience’s sake, featured the beaten favorite from the G3 Sam F. Davis, Change of Command, and the likely favorite for the G2 Risen Star, Sierra Leone, so good back class is no issue. The only worry is having enough time to make the big one.

#37 – Tuscan Sky (80-1 ML): This striking grey from the Pletcher barn has flown under-the-radar to this point. With leading juveniles Fierceness and Locked already in the fray, plus promising maiden winners Speak Easy and Born Noble, there has been little mention of this colt who broke his maiden at Aqueduct in mid-January. He was dominant in that six furlong affair, rolling by 5 1/4 lengths and suggesting he wants more ground. There will be plenty of opportunity to get familiar on Saturday when he runs in an allowance at Fair Grounds. If he wins there, he should be given a hard look in this Future Wager pool.

#38 – Uncle Heavy (40-1 ML): This Pennsylvania-bred closed well to just win the G3 Withers S. a few weeks ago, and the race returned very solid figures in the process. Uncle Heavy is now 3-for-4 lifetime, with his only loss coming due to a poor start in his second career outing. He has essentially answered the distance question, but still has plenty to prove from a class standpoint, as the quality of the competition does not resemble anything elsewhere in the country on the prep schedule.

#39 – West Saratoga (99-1 ML): While this bargain buy ($11k at the 2022 Keeneland September Sale) is a feel good story, and has already paid for himself tenfold with a win in the G3 Iroquois S. in September, his last three outings have not been good enough to make a mark on the Derby trail. He did reestablish himself slightly with a quality 3rd in the G3 Sam F. Davis S., but he was also beaten 6 lengths in the process despite sitting a very good trip throughout.

#40 – All Others (2-1 ML): Per usual, All Others is expected to be favored when the pool closes on Sunday. The Derby trail is as  open as can be at this juncture, but I also think we have to acknowledge that all of the logical contenders are covered in this pool. If there’s a rising last out maiden winner you like, they’re likely included here. If there’s a nice two year old you’re still waiting on in 2024, they’re likely here. If Deterministic, off since August, is an individual interest in this Future Wager pool, then I think we have to say this is a very comprehensive bunch of 39 horses. Most people play “All Others” as a numbers game, and if you’re playing it now you aren’t doing it because you know of a Derby winner not included individually this go-round.

Three to Consider

I’ve already given out Locked, Timberlake, and Sierra Leone in previous Future Wager pools, and the odds on those pools are certainly higher than what you’ll get this weekend. The ITM Derby Top 10 shows that I believe they are all leading contenders to win the Derby regardless of price. Still, let me throw out three others to consider. Liberal Arts is a horse I’ve always gravitated towards and think this is the time to strike on him. He is already battle tested, going versatile, and certainly will appreciate all added ground. Deterministic is a low-risk, high-reward type at this juncture who you will hear a lot from should he make a start within the next month. Finally, what about Fierceness? As my preview of Future Wager #2 shared, I am not the biggest believer in this colt’s Derby chances. However, his stock has plummeted very low. If he were to win the Florida Derby, he would resume his role as Derby favorite and his price for the big day would be considerably lower than the 12-1 ML that this pool suggests. Buy low.

Three to Fade

I’m still skeptical that Knightsbridge has what it takes to be a true Derby horse, so I once again recommend passing on him in a Future Wager. Born Noble is still receiving a lot of love on the trail, but I think his loss last time out was an indication he might be a cut below on this Derby trail. Mystik Dan is more of a “hold” to be honest, but I’ll throw him in here. I was very impressed with his Southwest win and understand the figure came back big, but I need to see him string together multiple high level races and also do it over a fast track before I take him at 20-1.

Weekend Thoughts

Given we have to reserve our thoughts on about 25% of the individual offerings until after they run on Saturday, I figured I’d give a few quick thoughts on the pair of races at Fair Grounds that will impact this pool.

• The third race on the card is a first-level allowance that features Nash and Tuscan Sky. A win would easily parallel Nash to Cyberknife’s resume from a few years ago, but that colt also did not go on to run well in the Derby. Tuscan Sky would be very intriguing should he win given he’d be 2-for-2 and squarely in the picture for a 100 point prep. The rest would fall under “All Others” and would need to really impress to consider playing that offering solely on that horse.
• The Risen Star is about as complex of a race you’ll find. A win from Sierra Leone, Track Phantom or Honor Marie make them definite plays in this pool. The rest I would take a wait and see approach because I don’t think they’re as bona fide as those three. Resilience may be a price to consider. His back class is insanely strong and his maiden win was much better than the form indicates.