Today’s Cross-Country Pick-5 wager starts at 3:37 (ET) with the 7th race at Belmont at the Big A. Three of the five races in the sequence are carded for the grass, but a wet forecast in the Northeast could move those races to the main track. The Spruce Fir Handicap for New Jersey bred fillies and mares is the third leg of the sequence. The Grade 3 Vagrancy Stakes is the 9th race at Belmont at the Big A and will not be a part of this wager, as the final leg is the 10th race there.
Leg A: Belmont at the Big A, Race 7:
The sequence starts off with a wide open field of $25K claimers going a one turn mile on the main track. This is the toughest race in the sequence in my eyes. There’s plenty of ways to go in this spot and it feels like any one of the eight betting interests could wind up on top. Rocket and Roll (#1A) would be my top pick, but there’s no guarantee he’s going to run. He was claimed two back and ran last weekend in the Man O’War where he was a hopeless longshot. He’s one of the more consistent runners in this race, which is probably the right level for him. He likes the distance and the track and fits well if he’s able to quickly rebound. However, seeing as how I have some stronger opinions as the sequence rolls on, I’m comfortable buying this race.
Leg B: Belmont at the Big A, Race 8:
I think you’ll see a better effort from Scramble (#8) in this allowance race on the turf. He made his first start of the year against a decent field at this level at Gulfstream in March. He was well behind a fast pace and tried to go inside, but there was never really a path for him, as he finished a close up 8th. His race three back at Saratoga on a good course was excellent and I think he beats this field if he can replicate that effort today. When looking at some of the other races in this sequence, he would be the one I’d consider using as a single.
Leg C: Monmouth Park, Race 8, The Spruce Fir Handicap:
Mia’s Crusade (#5) is the one to beat while making her five year old debut for Chuck Spina. She caught a sloppy course for this race last year and was a handy winner when she was able to control the pace. There is more early speed signed on this year, and there could be more of a pace battle that could set the table for I Can Run (#2). She was the winner of the Eleven North Handicap at this distance in 2022, when she closed into a contentious pace to score going away. She’s looking for her first win since that race and she might be better at two turns. She wasn’t very good in this race last year, but she also doesn’t like a wet track. She’s been facing strong fields in optional claiming/N2X allowance company in Maryland. Assuming that closers are getting a fair shot on this course and assuming the rain stays south and west of the Jersey Shore as forecasted, I think she has a shot to run them down late. Mia’s Crusade was a three time stakes winner with state bred company last season, so she’s too classy to ignore. She’ll be on the A line for me.
Leg D: Monmouth Park, Race 9:
Fillies and mares will dash 5 ½ furlongs out of the chute in this N1X allowance race on the turf. Both Wright Up Front (#3) and Shuangxi (#8) are coming out of a common five furlong sprint at this level at Gulfstream in their last start and they’ll meet again in this race. Wright Up Front covered significantly more ground than Shaungxi did, but she only finished ¾ of a length behind her rival. They swap posts today, which is a little more significant in this race than it was at Gulfstream because they’re breaking out of the chute here. I think Shaungxi stands to lose more ground where Wright Up Front could get that pocket trip right off the front-runners. Wright Up Front stayed on gamely despite the ground loss and she represents better value on the morning line. I think she’s a candidate to move forward in her second turf sprint and she gets Vincent Cheminaud to ride. He made a strong first impression at Monmouth last weekend as he rode all three mounts to victory. There’s a lot to like with this four year old filly who stands a big chance in this race. Queen Olly (#2) feels like the main danger, making her first start since September. She’s now running for Jorge Delgado after Graham Motion campaigned her for her first two North American tries last season. She just missed clearing this condition at Laurel last summer when she was ridden by none other than our own Will Humprhey. Daniel Centeno gets the assignment today for her local debut, where she seems like a good fit.
Leg E: Belmont at the Big A, Race 10:
There looks like there’s a decent amount of speed signed on in a race where several are making their first starts of the year. Gram (#7) is one of them, but I think she gets the right trip in her three year old debut for Clement. She beat state bred maiden allowance foes at the Spa this summer and then faced open stakes runners in her last two tries as a two year old. She struggled in the Stewart Manor on this course, but that was against a much better field. She drops in class to face state bred allowance runners in her first start of 2024 and I think she’ll be the one to watch for late. Stolen Future (#3) is a four year old taking on many three year olds here. She is making her first start since faltering in the New York Stallion Series race at Belmont last spring. She was a winner on this course and distance last April and if she’s able to to avoid getting caught in a speed duel, she’s going to be tough. Astonesthrowaway (#8) was a winner on debut last spring at Belmont. She was 5th in the Bolton Landing Stakes at Saratoga before going to the sidelines for the rest of the year. She came back in an off the turf race race where she didn’t run a step. Clearly she wants to be on the grass and I think having that race under her belt this year could give her a fitness edge on some of her rivals.
