Here we go. The last one. One more day of racing here from Kentucky Downs, and one more day to try and snatch anything from the meet. With a handful of surprises, the racing has played incredibly formful, at least towards the tail of the meet. Once the rail moved in, a lot of the racing got a lot simpler, in that speed did well and anyone closing ground to the inside did well.
Nobody who raced wide has been served too well on this turf course, and if you watch the overhead drone shots you can see why. The inside 50 feet of the turf (50 feet is where the temporary rail stood at the start of the meet by the way) has so much more lush and hold by the looks of it while the wider paths have more tear and less moisture. Now things have been a bit more balanced with the rail at zero feet versus 25, but all meet long Kentucky Downs has pretty much operated like any other racetrack, where you stand your best chance securing some type of forward position. You don’t win from last.
We’ll try to go out with a bang here after having a formful Mint Millions Day ourselves. To recap:
MONDAY, SEPT. 7 RECAP
Race 1 – Nothing missed here with the 6-5 chalk #3 Epsist winning. We took a bit of a stab on a price in #6 Treasured Times who raced wide throughout and just did not take to the distance over this course. Wanted a bit of a price but couldn’t connect, just a bad shot. The prices that got involved were #9 Gimme Some Lovin at 16-1 for second and #4 Marble Arch at 27-1 for third. You could maybe get there, but I’m not going to redboard much beyond that. Rather, the fun and frustration of maiden races is figuring out how charitably to interpret lines, especially when they’re going a distance like 1-5/16 miles. We were just wrong on our conjecture. Moving on.
Race 2 – We were not the only ones riding the speed hope of #11 Pretty Patriotic, bet down to 4-1 in this spot. She couldn’t get a clear lead and had to travel wide pressuring the leader throughout, which maybe dinged her in the run uphill while #6 Sea Isle City sat back and put together one run in the last quarter mile. We honestly got a better price on #1 She Knows Better at 6-1, but that one did not break better at second asking and was left chasing throughout. Another miss, but with a 9/5 winning this race we don’t have to shed any tears.
Race 7 – Looked like #7 Elegante Miz was a great price use until about the last three-sixteenths when she finally gave way to pressure but kept fighting to hold third at 25-1. Meanwhile, the just-bet-the-Euro angle prevailed nicely on #9 Citrus Springs at odds of 7/2, which we noted. But as I also noted, you didn’t (and shouldn’t) need me to tell you a Euro is live at Kentucky Downs.
Obvious Winner, but nice price for the Tri!
Race 8 – Right idea trying to find a horse to pounce from off the speed but landed on the wrong one. We took a nice shot on #8 Just a Minute, who got a great ride from Jaime Torres and just didn’t fire once given clear racetrack at odds of 18-1. He was just beaten by the other horse we noted, #3 Epic Lady Luck, though that runner went off at a somewhat stale 6-1. The race was won off the speed by #4 Laigina for Patrick Biancone and Keith Asmussen, and this is a horse I could only presume would even be in a pouncing position because of the cutback. Even then, she’s capable of sprint-type speed and has raced forward in nearly every start of her career. In the end, a good ride by Asmussen and some bettors really knew since she was bet from her 12-1 morning line to 8-1.
Race 9 – Miguel Clement ships and scores again with #6 Bottas, who was bet to be the 2-1 favorite. This was another race where the Brad Cox-Flavien Prat connection did not take the bulk of the money interestingly enough and they also did not fire, just a Touch of Fire – as the name suggests – to get fourth. But I was really hoping #9 Infiltrate would hit the number at good odds of 7-1 but he never got involved.
Winner, but sent the Chalk. Woo.
Race 10 – A pair of ouchies in this one. #2 Brillian Berti had loads of run but all timed wrong, at least in how the finish went. Not to blame Brian Hernandez Jr. because she could’ve been sent at the right time, but she was really climbing over everyone up the hill and maybe could’ve won with another hundred yards or so. #8 Gran Oriente also ran a good race despite being in an awkward spot pretty much every step of the way – well meant, but this probably was not the right spot for her. In other news, just bet the Euros to win here since #4 Haatem just shipped in to win.
Race 11 – Just bet the Euros. #10 Take Charge Star broke through to win at odds of 2-1, begging the question of why we even open the program in spots like this when we can just try to spot a (GB) or an (IRE) in the name and punch blindly. I don’t even want to recap my horses here they stunk. I stunk.
WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 9 ANALYSIS
Race 1 | $170,000 Maiden, for 2YO Fillies | 6-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Another maiden race with a bunch of first-time starters where we only have so much to glean. Brendan Walsh’s runner, #11 R Last Laugh, has obvious merit off a solid debut run chasing quick early fractions from mid-pack to stay on for third beaten just a half length by a neck-out winner. But having experience is a double-edged sword in a race like this. For one, it makes her seem like a much stronger contender compared to the rest of the field, but that also is so glaringly obvious that we’d be lucky to get close to that 6-1 morning line. My limit is probably 4-1 on a type like this, otherwise I want to explore.
Mark Casse has been a valuable trainer in these spots through the meet. He has one likely chalk in #5 Medinah but I don’t mind his other runner, #2 Voting Rights, to somehow get involved at first asking. The filly has been working okay and should handle the sprint distance fine, but I also do give an edge to Axel Concepcion riding since he’s demonstrated a fluency with riding this surface that other jocks have not. That could be a productive edge in a race like this, though entirely anecdotal.
Obvious Use: #11 R Last Laugh (6-1 ML)
Price Use: #2 Voting Rights (15-1 ML)
Race 2 | $170,000 Maiden, for 2YOs | 1 Mile (Turf)
I have #4 Social Deception circled in this race. This might not even be a good offering from me to you because a horse like this has to go off like 6/5 off a terrific debut run over the dirt and now switching to the turf. I’d center my tickets around this one in a race hopefully others try to spread in and just hope that my ship doesn’t sink this soon.
Single, for Better or Worse: #4 Social Deception (7/2 ML)
Race 3 | $185,000 Optional Claiming $80,000 N2X, for 3YOs & Up | 7 Furlongs (Turf)
Originally I wasn’t going to write anything about this race, but then I saw Joe Sharp claimed a clear pacemaker in this race and got interested. You honestly could make a case of taking #5 Eli’s Promise to go down the road if he’s offering 15-1 odds because this is a horse who can maybe carry his speed better on the grass than the dirt, and he hasn’t been that bad on the dirt to boot. More action likely will go towards his stablemate #1 Exact Estimate with Jose Ortiz, who probably will try to use his stablemate as a pick.
Speed will also benefit the morning-line chalk, #11 Rose Ruler. He raced alright in his first start for Mike Maker over at Ellis Park and showed himself to be a great pouncing type when with trainer John Ennis. Plus he’s got some of the better figures in the race, so he’s an obvious factor.
As an outsider, I’m curious how #10 Exosome fares in a spot like this. He’s cutting back from a pretty good race at a one-turn mile over at Colonial, and I feel like if he can stalk that sort of speed and kick then he probably can put together a nice rally going shorter and on a different surface. Plus that last run can serve as a nice primer since it was his first outing since a no-show effort in the Arkansas Derby back in March.
Maybe the Rabbit Goes the Distance: #5 Eli’s Promise (15-1 ML)
Logical Pouncers: #1 Exact Estimate (4-1 ML), #11 Rose Ruler (5/2 ML)
Intriguing Longshot: #10 Exosome (15-1 ML)
Race 4 | $170,000 Maiden, for 2YOs | 7 Furlongs (Turf)
All I have to offer here is #1 Goshawk is a great bet if that morning line is true. Kelsey Danner runners have been performing well all meet and this one has unsuspecting enough (but still solid) workouts to maybe be a surprise factor with the rail draw and Luis Saez aboard.
Value of the Race: #1 Goshawk (12-1 ML)
Race 5 | $180,000 Allowance N1X, for 3YOs & Up | 1-5/16 Miles (Turf)
I have even less to offer on this race beyond to note that if #7 Lazlo wins, then there’s no point in betting anyone but Mike Maker at these longer distances. Just bet Maker or anything with a (GB) or (IRE) and move on.
Mike Maker: #7 Lazlo (9/2 ML)
Race 6 | $170,000 Maiden, for F&M 3YOs & Up | 6-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
I am doubtful we will get the 6-1 morning line on #10 Hey Miss Olivia, who looks heads over heels the best horse in the race to me. She debuted great at Churchill in early June for second and put together a solid effort travelling wide on a wet track taken off the turf at Ellis Park before putting together another strong rally to just miss breaking her maiden. The most eyecatching piece to her for me is that she finishes with such a flourish since the uphill climb at Kentucky Downs is such an obstacle for many runners. I’m left thinking she could have the profile to do well over this course.
Beyond Hey Miss Olivia, who I would probably take even at 3-1 or 5/2 odds, I’m interested in how #5 Rules and Regs steps up here. She’s cutting back after rallying well from an off-the-pace ride on debut and following that with a cleaner forward trip at second asking, which signals to me that she could manage to break into a good spot even at the shorter distance. This thought is bolstered by the fact she stumbled terribly in her most recent line and was out of the race entirely, so I think there’s room for her to show that she’s got more to offer. At the same time, this is her first start back since April and she may be a horse Wilkes is targeting to race at routes, so proceed with caution because bringing at type like this back at a sprint could be a signal that this is a prep more than anything.
Top Call: #10 Hey Miss Olivia (6-1 ML)
Intriguing Use: #5 Rules and Regs (6-1 ML)
Race 10 | $750,000 Bowling Green Gold Cup Invitational Stakes | 2-1/16 Miles (Turf)
No Euros entered in this race, so we’re stuck having to handicap it like a bunch of idiots. Obviously #4 Tawny Port is the one to beat since he’s been so great in these marathon turf events, but I’ll take a stab with the logical counter of #6 Navy Seal. This Wesley Ward runner, who you wouldn’t guess comes from the barn of a star sprinting trainer, has raced well in both of his starts and in my mind improved (though the figures beg to differ) from his third-place beaten 10 lengths by Burnham Square in the Elkhorn to his runner-up finish beaten 2-1/2 lengths by Tawny Port in the Belmont Gold Cup. Distance is not a question for this horse and hopefully we can get like a 7/2 number on him since Tawny Port also has to rebound from an even effort in the Christophe Clement Turf, though that was run over a yielding surface.
Logical Counterpunch: #6 Navy Seal (9/2 ML)
Race 11 | $750,000 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile Stakes | 1 Mile (Turf)
Joseph O’Brien has a runner here in #11 One Number, who adds blinkers off a blinding win at Lingfield making all. He was bet to 4-5 when shipping from Ireland, and this is a horse that clearly showed promise since they tried him as a maiden at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle. The only real nitpick to note is that he put together that terrific run at Lingfield on a track that does go downhill and will have an ascent to deal with to the finish like he did at Ascot, where he finished 18th of 25 beaten 10 lengths. And despite all of that, he’s my preferred Euro in this race over O’Brien’s other runner #4 Otherworldly.
I’ve got a pair of price hopes too in #6 Admiral’s Order and #7 Tolstoy, though Admiral’s Order may not run here since he competed in the sprint on Aug. 29. If he does run here, I think that effort in the sprint could serve him well on the stretch out because the figure came back good and it was a nice improvement from an already solid maiden win on the lead over sloppy dirt at Ellis. This just seems like a nice horse; and on Tolstoy, he should definitely stretch out well as a Frosted and takes the blinkers off after an even start on yielding turf in the Riverside Rush, which was the only race of his career where he wore blinkers. Give him a mulligan for running on soft turf and toss his dirt run that has nothing to do with this surface and this horse has not run badly to start his career. Give him a shot.
Best Euro: #11 One Number (8-1 ML)
Price Shots: #6 Admiral’s Order (15-1 ML), #7 Tolstoy (10-1 ML)
Race 12 | $2,000,000 Dueling Ground Oaks Invitational Stakes | 1-5/16 Miles (Turf)
They dropped a new O’Brien into the mix here for closing day. We’ve had Aiden, Joseph and now Donnacha is on the scene with #8 La Fogata, who absolutely is a contender in this race on class. She has faced much tougher overseas and enters off a good fourth at Chantilly in the Prix Chloe. This filly fits the race and she just has to ship well and not get herself all into a tizzy.
In the event that somehow a Euro does not win this long-distance turf race, I have two backups that interest me. I again put my faith in Luis Saez, but this time with a Rusty Arnold runner in #6 Call On Me who has raced great with the exception of a rank run in the Grade 2 Wonder Again in early June at Saratoga. I’m choosing to pitch that race entirely since she couldn’t get into a good rhythm and followed that poor effort with a victory in a first-level allowance at Ellis Park. She has an opportunity to step up and show she can face this caliber, but I admit she still does have to step up.
And of course, Jose Ortiz and Joe Sharp have a shot in #7 Bohemian, but good luck getting 8-1 on her. She rallied nicely to win the Pucker Up going 1-1/8 miles at Ellis and has a late running style that should suit this longer distance as well as the uphill finish. Plus Ortiz and Sharp have been connecting, so if we do take her on as a legitimate threat we may have to pay a tax on that heat.
Obligatory Euro: #8 La Fogata (4-1 ML)
Live Longshot: #6 Call On Me (15-1 ML)
Also a Factor: #7 Bohemian (8-1 ML)
Best of luck in your gambling endeavors on this closing day at Kentucky Downs and thanks for riding along this meet with me! I hope that through this meet, you all found my words at least somewhat insightful and that the analysis I provide helps how you look at the races to maybe even connect on things I couldn’t catch.
