Road to the Kentucky Derby – Alex’s Pedigree Paddock
Alex Henry | April 22nd, 2024
With the Kentucky Derby less than 2 weeks away, let’s explore the pedigrees of the top 3 wagering choices, two strong contenders that are unlikely to want 1 1/4 miles based on pedigree, and one longshot that is well-bred for the distance.
Top 3 Betting Choices (projected as of 4/22/24):
Fierceness
City of Light o/o Nonna Bella by Stay Thirsty
This colt flashes talent like it’s nobody’s business but which Fierceness will we get on May 4th? Sire City of Light held his own when distances stretched out, winning the Pegasus World Cup and Oaklawn Handicap both at 9F. There is only one other offspring sired by City of Light out of a Stay Thirsty mare, Lights of Broadway (out of Drinks on Broadway by Stay Thristy); this 4 year old gelding is a listed stakes winner over 1 mile and 70 yards as a juvenile but has not recorded a victory since. Fierceness is bred to relish distance on his dam’s side, as Nonna Bella is sired by Travers Stakes winner and Belmont Stakes runner-up Stay Thirsty. Despite an abbreviated racing career, only running 5 times and winning her first two starts at 6.5F and 7F, she was bred to relish a route of ground as well. Nonna Bella is a half-sister to 9F G1 Wood Memorial winner Outwork (Uncle Mo), her dam Nonna Mia carries significant stamina influence from her Belmont Stakes-winning sire Empire Maker. Furthermore, stakes-winning class is infused via Nonna Mia’s dam Holy Bubbette, dam of the talented Cairo Prince (winner, Holy Bull Stakes [8.5F] and Nashua Stakes [8F]).
Sierra Leone (link to full Pedigree Analysis from April 6th here)
Gun Runner o/o Heavenly Love by Malibu Moon
Stretch-running crowd favorite Sierra Leone will be fun to watch on the first Saturday in May. Sire Gun Runner has fathered talented colts Taiba (winner of G1s Santa Anita Derby [9F] and Pennsylvania Derby [9F]), Cyberknife (winner of G1 Haskell Invitational [9F] and Arkansas Derby [9F]), and Early Voting (winner of G1 Preakness Stakes [9.5F]). While his one-turn speed influence cannot be ignored, foals that possess additional stamina breeding from their dam’s family demonstrate that classic distances are well within their ability. Heavenly Love, Sierra Leone’s dam, is a stakes placed daughter of Malibu Moon o/o Darling My Darling by Deputy Minister. Heavenly Love’s dam Darling My Darling foaled G2 stakes winner Forever Darling in 2013, who in turn, foaled Saudi Derby and UAE Derby winner Forever Young (Real Steel). With racing luck on their side, 3rd cousins Forever Young and Sierra Leone will compete together in two weeks, a special feat considering they were born on two different continents. Heavenly Love is by the great Malibu Moon, an excellent perpetrator of the A.P. Indy – Seattle Slew sire line throughout the new millennium. Malibu Moon sired 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb and 10F G2 Delaware Handicap winner Life At Ten, thereby carrying family stamina onto the current generation.
Forever Young (link to full Pedigree Analysis from March 30th here)
Real Steel* (JPN) o/o Forever Darling by Congrats
Forever Young’s sire Real Steel won the 2016 Dubai Turf (9F) and G2 Mainichi Okan (9F). His sire Deep Impact is my favorite non-USA bred horse of all time and won the 2005 Japanese Triple Crown (turf) and has since sired male and female triple crown winners, Contrail and Gentildonna. Offspring of Deep Impact are usually enriched with stamina influence, as he comfortably won 2 G1 races over ~15F (~1.875 miles/3000 meters) during his illustrious career. Deep Impact is truly his father’s son, sired by the foremost foundation sire of Japan, Sunday Silence. Reel Steel’s dam, Loves Only Me, was unraced. However, even casual US-based racing fans may recall a similarly named mare winning the 2021 Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf (11F). Indeed, Loves Only Me is the dam of Loves Only You, said Breeders Cup winner. This family is full of global G1 winners and the future is extremely bright for the Deep Impact sire-line. Dam Forever Darling is a Kentucky-bred stakes winner of over $200,000, (winner, G2 Santa Ynez stakes [6.5F] and second in listed Santa Anita Angels Flight stakes [7F]). Despite only demonstrating sprint success, Forever Darling’s pedigree suggests an aptitude for longer distances. As mentioned above, Sierra Leone and Forever Young are 3rd cousins via their dam’s side; furthermore, both mares are by sons of A.P. Indy, rendering them 3/4 sisters as well. Via Forever Darling’s dam Darling My Darling won the 2001 Doubledogdare Stakes over 8.5F and was competitive throughout her career at similar distances; additionally, she is a half-sister to Zenno Rob Roy, Japanese Horse of the Year, earner of over $10 million USD, and winner of 3 top-level Japanese G1 turf races back-to-back, over 10F, 12F, and 13F, respectively.
The two horses below, while beautifully bred, are not especially suited to relish 10 Furlongs:
Track Phantom
By Quality Road o/o Miss Sunset by Into Mischief
This colt was allowed to dictate the pace his own way and set relatively soft fractions in his 3 wins as a front-runner. The going got more difficult as distances got longer, breaking his 3-race win streak in the Risen Star over the slop. The wagering public forgave that loss and bet him to favoritism in the Louisiana Derby where he led throughout until passed by Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, and Tuscan Gold with 1/16 to run in deep stretch. Track Phantom’s pedigree doesn’t help him out in the quest for 10F, as sire Quality Road won up to 9F (1 1/8 miles) but when an extra furlong was added in the Travers, Jockey Gold Cup, and Breeders Cup Classic, he was unable to sustain his a run. His dam Miss Sunset was a sprint specialist Cal-bred who was competitive on both coasts. Her career-defining win arrived in the 2017 G2 Raven Run Stakes at Keenland over 7F. Winning a total of 10 times, she managed to carry her speed longer than 7F once in the listed Campanile Stakes and subsequently committed to becoming a sprint specialist afterwards. Her one other foal to race, O’Conner Sunset, won a 6 ½ F allowance race at Charles Town in March and has done his best running sprinting as well. While meticulously bred for stakes success (Truenicks: A++), I would hope to see more stamina influence on his dam’s side with Quality Road as his sire, especially seeing as his dam’s side contains known sprinters, including Trippi, Eskimo, End Sweep, and Into Mischief. There is always room for improvement for these young 3-year-olds, so I look forward to seeing how far he wants to run with blinkers added very soon.
Stronghold
By Ghostzapper o/o Spectator by Jimmy Creed.
Stronghold’s sire Ghostzapper isn’t the issue, as a Breeder’s Cup Classic winner in fantastic fashion. I worry about the sprint influence from his dam (sired by Jimmy Creed) and the TrueKnicks data based on Ghostzapper and mares sired by Distorted Humor sons. The best of this cross is Guarana, who managed to win the 2019 Coaching Club American Oaks in her first two-turn test. However, trainer Chad Brown remarked after her defeat in the Cotillion Stakes subsequently that she prefers shorter and managed her as a 1-turn specialist for the remainder of her career. Additional runners with this cross include multiple stakes winner Visitant who won up to 8F and Rhyme Schemes who won the G2 6.5F Saratoga Special last year, but sustained an injury and hasn’t raced since. Stronghold’s dam Spectator was a G2 winner at 2 in the Sorrento Stakes over 6.5F. She was competitive as a 3-year-old finishing 2nd to the great Midnight Bisou in the 2018 Santa Anita Oaks over 8.5F. Spectator is by Jimmy Creed and out of a Henny Hughes mare, suggesting offspring that would relish distances less than 8F. In addition to Jimmy Creed and Henny Highes, her family contains Swiss Yodeler, Hookedonthefeeling (dam of Jimmy Creed, MSW sprinting), and notable sire of precocious speed – Meadowlake. This Santa Anita Derby winner managed to obtain an 89 Beyer Speed Figure for his efforts; however, it should be noted that he and his rivals were not rushing home – as their last 3F was run in 38.69, the slowest final 3F time of any winner of a major Derby prep race in 2024. Perhaps like his sire, this well-bred colt (Truenicks: A++) can continue to grow and improve to manage his speed effectively over classic distances.
Well-bred Longshot:
Grand Mo The First (True Nicks: A rating)
Uncle Mo o/o Lilies So Fair by Giants Causeway
Grand Mo the First is sired by Breeders Cup Juvenile (8.5F) champion 2yo Uncle Mo, who in turn, sired the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist. In fact, Nyquist has similar breeding to Grand Mo the First, as the dams of both horses are by Storm Cat sons. Dam Lilies So Fair carries stamina through her sire, the Iron Horse Giant’s Causeway, however, it’s her dam Wildwood Flower who has produced the most prolifically thus far. Wildwood Flower has foaled two route-handling graded stakes winners in ill-fated Materiality (winner, Florida Derby and Islamorada Handicap both 9F) and My Miss Sophia (winner, Gazelle Stakes 9F and 2nd, Kentucky Oaks 9F). My Miss Sophia was bred to War Front and subsequently produced multiple turf-graded stakes winner, Annapolis, thus adding to the class of this family. Additionally, Wildwood Flower’s 2016 offspring Wildwood Rose has stamped herself as a producer as well, foaling 2024 G1 Ashland Stakes (8.5F) winner Leslie’s Rose who is poised to be a leading contender in the Kentucky Oaks. This colt has found himself in traffic throughout his sophomore season, finishing 3rd three times in a row; however, if the 2020s have taught racing fans anything – it’s that anything can happen on the first Saturday in May.
Alex Henry’s info was fresh and insightful stuff. You are so right PTF that the Derby becomes a race full of narratives that affect the final odds almost as much as running lines. I really enjoyed this one. Thanks!