Road to the Kentucky Derby – Alex’s Pedigree Paddock
Alex Henry | April 6th 2024
Goal: Highlight interesting pedigrees of 2024 Kentucky Derby contenders who are also my best bets of the race.
Triple Header: Bluegrass Stakes | Santa Anita Derby | Wood Memorial Stakes
This is a packed weekend with three contentious Kentucky Derby prep races. Therefore, I’ll focus on my best bet in the UAE Derby, and write smaller pieces on my Florida and Arkansas Derby picks.
Bluegrass Stakes
Sierra Leone (March 2021)
Owner: Brant, Peter M., Magnier, Mrs. John, Tabor, Michael, Smith, Derrick, Westerberg and Smith, Brook T. | Breeder: Debby M. Oxley
Trainer: Chad Brown
Gun Runner o/o Heavenly Love by Malibu Moon
Inbreeding: Mr. Prospector _ x F4xM5 (via dam only), Fappiano M5xM5x _ (via sire only)
True Nicks: A++
Fasig-Tipton Saratoga ’22: $2,300,000
Sierra Leone, named for the West African country that has been rebuilding its infrastructure since 2002 due to a devastating civil war, fights hard in his races and refuses to quit. I have hope that this colt’s namesake nation can receive positive attention due in part to his success, as his devastating closing kick and consistency make it easy to become a fan. His current ownership team identified his potential talent early, as he was the highest priced yearling at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale. Four weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby and facing his final prep race, this strapping dark bay colt has not found a fast racetrack since November 2023. However, he has answered every question with courage and tenacity. Undoubtedly, Sierra Leone’s pedigree deliberately contributes to the talent he has shown so far.
Sierra Leone’s sire Gun Runner ended 2023 as the #1 third crop and #3 National Northern Hemisphere sire, with Gunite and Echo Zulu being exemplary progeny throughout the year. Interestingly, both excelled at shorter distances; Echo Zulu did carry her speed further winning the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies and G2 Fair Grounds Oaks both at 8.5F, while Gunite’s ceiling was 7F. However, Echo Zulu did eventually do her best running at sprint distances, winning the G2 Honorable Miss Handicap (6F) earning a 112 Beyer speed figure in 1:08 3/5 and in her farewell run she won the G1 Ballerina Handicap (7F) in front-running fashion equaling her last-out Beyer speed figure of 112. Despite his progeny’s sprinting success, one does not need to look far for Gun Runner progeny that can carry their speed over two turns. Highly regarded colts Taiba (winner of G1s Santa Anita Derby [9F] and Pennsylvania Derby [9F], Cyberknife (winner of G1 Haskell Invitational [9F] and Arkansas Derby [9F], and Early Voting (winner of G1 Preakness Stakes [9.5F]) have proven that the correct blend of stamina on both sides can result in a reliable two-turn winner.
Heavenly Love, Sierra Leone’s dam, is a stakes placed daughter of Malibu Moon o/o Darling My Darling by Deputy Minister. Heavenly Love’s dam Darling My Darling is quite the mare as she foaled G2 stakes winner Forever Darling, who in turn, foaled last week’s Pedigree Paddock Pick (Saudi Derby and UAE Derby winner) Forever Young (by Real Steel). With racing luck on their side, 3rd cousins Forever Young and Sierra Leone will compete in the 150th Kentucky Derby together, a special feat considering they were born on two different continents. Heavenly Love’s accomplishments on the racetrack should not be undermined, as she ended her career as a dual surface winner on dirt and turf. Showcasing trainer Mark Casse’s ability to train a precocious 2 year old, Heavenly Love broke her maiden at second asking at Kentucky Downs over 6F. Casse determined that her pedigree and aptitude would translate well to conventional dirt, therefore, Keenland’s G1 Alcibiades Stakes over 8.5F was chosen as her next target. She responded by winning her graded stakes debut by 5 ½ lengths in hand over eventual G2 winner Princess Warrior. Heavenly Love never won again, however, she managed a courageous 3rd in the G3T Regret Stakes at Churchill Downs as a 3 year old. Retired after this 3 year old season, her first foal to race was Monegasque (Uncle Mo), a promising colt that unfortunately sustained a career ending injury in his second start. Sierra Leone is the only horse of racing age for his dam at this time.
Sierra Leone has been ridden by a different jockey in each of his 3 starts, however, Tyler Gaffalione decided to remain aboard after his well-timed ride in the Fair Grounds slop that was the 2024 G2 Risen Star Stakes. Breaking 9th of 12 horses and maintaining this position until just after the half-mile mark, Gaffalione guided his charge to the 10-path in an effort to break free of traffic and focus on his stretch drive. Amazingly, Sierra Leone responded despite the testing ground and made up a tremendous amount of distance, closing his final furlong in 12.22 seconds. It must be noted that the horse he was tasked to catch was Track Phantom, who led until deep stretch after setting fractions of 24.32 in the opening ¼ mile and 49.67 in the first ½ mile. Closing as he did despite slow opening fractions is impressive. However, I would be remiss not to note that Track Phantom did not perform especially well when asked to lead while running faster and a bit longer in the Louisiana Derby, finishing a well beaten 4th. Timeform US projects the Bluegrass to be run at a fast pace, with speedsters Top Conor, Dornoch (a previous Pedigree Paddock Pick), and Just a Touch set to vie for the lead. This race, at least on paper, is setting up to be run in favor of Sierra Leone’s closing style. He has already proven that 10-wide is not a problem, however, we need this serious class-test to determine if Sierra Leone can be worthy of a place alongside his 3rd cousin in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
