The first Saturday of the Keeneland meet is upon us and it is a dandy. Five graded stakes races comprise a tantalizing P5 sequence with two of those affairs serving double duty with the popular Turf Pick 3. Be sure to also check out the rest of the great content the In the Money Media team has in store for this blockbuster Saturday card. Good Luck!
Selections
- Leg 1 (R7): 1-5-6-9
- Leg 2 (R9): 4-6-10-11
- Leg 3 (R11): 8-3-1-4
Leg 1 (4:14pm): Keeneland Race 7 – G2-Appalachian Stakes 400k Purse
While this year’s Appalachian doesn’t feature a standout, it’s an appealing betting race with plenty of ways to go. Pounce (#10) looks as if she’ll be the betting favorite off two consecutive wins down at Gulfstream. The biggest feather in her cap is her versatility as she won her allowance condition in gate-to-wire fashion then made a last-to-first move to win the G3-Herecomesthebride. I respect her chances, but feel as if she’s a classic “last time was the time (x2)” horse as her victories came at 9-1 & 14-1 whereas she’ll be a fraction of that price this afternoon. Buchu (#9) is the other main player in this race as she absolutely dominated a graded stakes field over this course and distance last fall in the Jessamine. It remains to be seen what exactly she was beating that day and she got a decent pace setup to close into. I’m willing to forgive her somewhat troubled trip in the Breeders’ Cup and she goes out for a dangerous barn in Phil Bauer. Poolside With Slim (Ire) (#1) and Austere (#6) both exit the Florida Oaks. I thought the former ran a touch better as she was up on the pace the whole way and gamely held on to just miss second while the latter got a decent trip inside and rallied through the lane. Grecian Goddess (#4) seems destined to be an underlay going out for Chad Brown off a win against a weak maiden field at Tampa. Kairyu (#5) deserves a mention as this foreign invader goes out for Cherie DeVaux. While this barn has limited data with runners first time in the country, it does well generally with new additions to the barn and this filly won a Group 3 in Ireland last fall. These are sharp connections that bring her over and while I have questions about how far she’ll untimately want to go, the flat mile should be within her scope.
Leg 2 (5:20pm): Keeneland Race 9 – G2-Shakertown Stakes 350k Purse
It’s rare to see a turf sprint with a lack of speed like this much less in a graded stakes. That’s likely to work against the morning line favorite Mischief Magic (Ire) (#3) whose claim to fame was a last-to-first move to take down the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint over this course and distance back in the fall of ’22. He struggled to reproduce that effort in a tumultuous ’23 campaign, but has since got back on track with some good efforts in the Middle East this winter. I just think the pace situation will be too much to overcome. I’m going to center my plays around Beer Can Man (#4) and Arzak (#6) who both seem to have the versatility to adapt to this less than ideal race flows. Phil D’Amato doesn’t have good numbers in Kentucky, but Beer Can Man has proven to take his show on the road with a win at Pimlico last spring. Arzak won the fall counterpart of this race, the G2-Woodford, over some common runners and I have no knocks on this super logical runner. I’d want to use all the outside four horses as backups and heave relegated them to such simply because I fear they do their best running at tracks other than Keeneland. The notable exception is Our Shot (#10) who was run well at a number of circuits and can be dangerous with the right trip.
Leg 3 (6:26pm): Keeneland Race 11 – AllowanceN4X 140k Purse
While the finale features a compact field for Keeneland standard with just eight scheduled to compete, it still is a very competitive affair filled with hard-knocking veterans. The decision that has to be made comes from projecting how hot the pace will get. Dominican Pioneer (#4) and Accredit (#6) rarely back down from the lead when it comes to turf races and Ocean Atlantique (#7) has plenty of early zip as well, though he normally shows it more on synthetic. Ultimately, I landed on the belief this pace has to heat up, though I will have one backup line on Dominican Pioneer as he feels like the one most likely to take them wire-to-wire. With a hot pace scenario, Running Bee (#3) and Master Piece (Chi) (#5) are huge beneficiaries, though I have slight knocks on each. Running Bee goes out for Chad Brown and runners like this are almost assuredly underlays. He’s run well in a couple starts this year, but not to warrant being the clear favorite he projects to be. Master Piece (Chi) has the best closing kick of anyone, but this 8-year-old now seems to prefer going much longer than this 8.5f trip. I landed on Injunction (#8) who will be the right price and has the tactical attributes to adjust to any pace scenario. His form seems to be dirtied up, but if you hone in on his turf race at Keeneland last fall, he’s easily good enough to compete. He’s likely to get first run on the closers under Jose Ortiz. At risk of mentioning nearly every runner in the field, I don’t think Camp Home (#1) is without a chance. He’s drawn well, has done some of his best running at Keeneland over the years, and can get the right pace setup. I’m just not sure if he’ll be able to outkick the shorter prices.
